Application of dynamic risk analysis in offshore drilling processes

Process safety is the common global language used to communicate the strategies of hazard identification, risk assessment and safety management. Process safety is identified as an integral part of process development and focuses on preventing and mitigating major process accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases in process industries. Accident probability estimation is the most vital step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Drilling process for oil is a hazardous operation and hence safety is one of the major concerns and is often measured in terms of risk. Dynamic risk assessment method is meant to reassess risk in terms of updating initial failure probabilities of events and safety barriers, as new information are made available during a specific operation. In this study, a Bayesian network model is developed to represent a well kick scenario. The concept of dynamic environment is incorporated by feeding the real-time failure probability values (observed at different time intervals) of safety barriers to the Bayesian network in order to obtain the corresponding time-dependent variations in kick consequences. This study reveals the importance of real-time monitoring of safety barrier performances and quantitatively shows the effect of deterioration of barrier performance on kick consequence probabilities. The Macondo blowout incident is used to demonstrate how early warnings in barrier probability variations could have been observed and adequately managed to prevent escalation to severe consequences.     

基于多Agent的危险化学品安全生产信息采集系统设计

安全生产监管是政府的重要职责,直接关系到国家财产和人民生命安全.安全生产监管中,以危险化学品的监管为重中之重.提高安全生产监管的信息化程度是降低监管强度、提高监管效率行之有效的方法.构建了由管理Agent、采集Agent、故障诊断Agent、通信Agent组成的分布式信息采集多Agent系统,将安监局监管中心对危险化学品生产过程监管的信息采集任务下移到企业端,利用多Agent系统实现危险源生产状态参数的采集、监控及分析;设计了该信息采集系统各类Agent的结构和功能.利用多Agent系统实现分散于各企业的危险源生产状态参数的信息采集、监控及分析,预测和诊断生产过程中的异常状况.通过Agent之间的合作、并行求解使危险化学品安全生产信息采集的问题得到较好地解决.     

Seismic response mitigation of chemical plant components by passive control techniques

This paper deals with the applicability of seismic passive control in major-hazard chemical installations. The objective is to show numerically and experimentally the applicability of Passive Control Techniques (PCT) in industrial plants. Consequently, the main components of a process plant are classified and collected into a limited number of classes; for each class, the main damages caused by past earthquakes are described and the most vulnerable components are identified. A synthesis of the effects of earthquakes on the different typologies of process components is also presented and the most suitable innovative seismic protection systems, in particular passive control techniques (PCT), are acknowledged. Finally, the effectiveness of PCT in reducing the seismic response of process plant components is proved by three representative case studies: a base isolated above-ground storage tank, a distillation column connected by elastoplastic dampers to the adjacent service frame and an application of non-conventional Tuned Mass Dampers to a support frame.     

Disaster impact assessment of the underground hazardous materials pipeline

In the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and other countries with advanced pipeline management, some organizations are responsible for pipeline safety protection management for underground hazardous materials. The security and maintenance of a hazardous material pipeline are serious considerations for urban safety, because the materials transported by underground pipelines contain hazardous goods, such as the flammable or explosive particles of solids, liquids, and gases. Damage to a pipeline by external forces often leads to secondary disasters, such as the leakage of hazardous materials, fires, explosions, and environmental pollution. Such events seriously affect the safety of individuals and their property.Accordingly, this study used seismic scenario analysis with a spatial grid to evaluate earthquake damage to an underground pipeline in an urban area. Damage to underground pipelines was classified, pipeline disaster management procedures were discussed, and improvement measures were proposed, such as establishing a geographic information platform and conducting disaster impact assessments for hazardous material pipelines. Underground hazardous material pipelines were assessed in scenarios including earthquakes. Such assessments are intended to provide disaster reduction plans and disaster prevention drills to improve pipeline safety as well as the planning for pipeline materials to aid seismic resistance.     

西安市城中村事故隐患分析及对策措施研究

以实地调查所得的西安市城中村的安全状况为依据，针对西安市城中村事故频发、救援困难的特点，从系统论的观点，全面分析了西安市城中村这一系统所存在的主要危险有害因素，得到以西安市城中村灾害事故为顶上事件的事故树，充分运用事故树模型，计算得出西安市城中村存在的主要危险有害因素的结构重要度排序。本次调查研究以有效的解决西安市城中村事故隐患为目的，利用系统论和FTA为研究手段，针对目前西安城中村事故隐患提出了“五加强”的对策：加强施工安全规范、加强交通管理、加强治安巡查力度、加强基础设施建设、加强消防知识教育，为全国各大城市城中村事故隐患问题的解决提供一定的参考。     

城市大跨度隧道爆破对地面建筑物影响的研究

以嘉华隧道工程开挖为研究对象,应用安全系统工程中的事故树法对爆破振动影响区域内的地面建筑物进行定性分析,找出影响地面建筑物稳定的最小割集;求出各基本事件的结构重要度,为后续监测和施工方案的调整提供理论依据。结合现场实际情况,制定合理的爆破地震波的振动监测方案。同时,对爆破振动监测结果的回归分析,确立振动传播衰减规律。分别从振动速度和峰值频率两个方面对地面建筑物的安全性进行评价。笔者研究成果对指导隧道工程开挖爆破施工和保证地面建筑物安全有重要指导作用。     

Safety barriers: Research advances and new thoughts on theory,engineering and management

Safety barriers include physical and non-physical means in different industries for preventing the occurrences of hazardous events and mitigating the consequences in case they have occurred. After clarifying the relevant terminologies, this article reviews the literature in the domain of safety barriers in the recent decade, and categorizes these studies into barrier theory, barrier engineering and barrier management. Classifications of barriers, performance measures, modeling approaches and data-driven analysis for safety barriers are reviewed as parts of barrier theories. In the engineering section, the research advances are presented in accordance with design for reliability and safety, test and maintenance strategies, responses to dependent failures, and diagnosis and prognosis of degradations. Then, project and process management, human and organizational factors, and standardization and compliance management of safety barriers are summarized. Based on the review of literature, research perspectives on safety barriers for resilience, digital safety, security of barriers, utilizing data, and dealing with intelligence, are highlighted and potential challenges are mentioned. This study is therefore expected to be beneficial to the researchers of system and safety engineering, with systematically streamlining and innovatively categorizing the recent findings and insights.     

基于“纵深防御”原则的危化企业事故预防系统建立

危险化学品生产是当前的高危行业和安全管理的重点领域。面对事故频发的严峻形势,如何开展好危险化学品生产企业的安全管理,建立事故预防系统防止事故的发生非常关键。“纵深防御”原则作为核电厂实现核安全的一项基本原则,为核电厂长期稳定安全的发展奠定了坚实的基础,对危化企业提升事故预防能力,建立事故预防系统有较强的借鉴意义。借鉴“纵深防御”原则,文章分析危化企业应用“纵深防御”原则预防和减少事故发生的必要性,结合生产特点建立了事故纵深防御系统,对企业提高安全管理水平,预防事故的发生有重要的意义。     

A methodology for assessing underground coal mines for high safety-related risk

In 2008 the authors developed a methodology for assessing underground coal mines for high risk for major-hazard events. It focused on major hazard-related violations of safety standards associated with high-risk conditions. Later using the same stratified pilot sample of 31 mines, injury measures and MSHA citation data were combined into a Safe Performance Index (SPI). Using 2009 data, the database was expanded to 107 mines, which is a 30% sampling of all underground coal mines. The SPI was used to assess the relative safety-related risk of mines, including by mine-size category. The methodology can be used to assist companies, the Mine Safety and Health Administration, or state agencies in targeting mines with high risk for serious injuries and elevated citations for remediation of their violation and/or injury experience.     

老虎台矿55002#掘进面通过F7-1断层前后微震事件的时空特征分析

冲击地压作为一种特殊的矿压显现形式,对抚顺矿业集团老虎台矿深部开采的安全生产造成了严重的影响,在该矿的实际生产中,地质条件是引发冲击地压发生的重要因素。鉴于微震监测系统是目前在煤矿井下监测冲击地压应用较为广泛的手段之一,本文利用波兰ARAM IS/MA微震监测系统对老虎台矿55002掘进工作面通过F7-1断层前后的微震特征信号进行连续观测,分别从时间和空间上研究此掘进面通过断层前后的微震特征,验证了一种典型的冲击地压发生时间前后的微震活动规律,并结合实际地质条件从位置上分析了微震事件与断层等地质构造之间的关系,进而根据空间分析结果圈定了重点防治冲击地压区域,使老虎台矿在该工作面掘进生产中提前采取相应的防范措施,顺利通过断层等地质构造异常区域,确保了安全生产。     

浅谈重大危险源及其安全监控系统

从重大危险源安全监控的现实需求出发,针对如何辨识重大危险源以及对重大危险源的管理进行全面地分析和阐述.安全监控系统是重大危险源企业预防和控制生产事故的重要技术措施,借助于这样的数字化动态管理系统,可以及时获得相关参数与信息,实现早期预警,降低重大危险源企业的风险,同时有利于政府和行业部门对重大危险源的监管.     

A development in energy flow/barrier analysis

In this paper, the occupational accidents and their effects on people are modeled. The basis of energy flow/barrier analysis is used to define an accident as the impact of a hazardous agent on a target, as a result of failure of control and protective barriers. This definition is enhanced to include serial and parallel barriers and to distinguish energy barriers from target barriers. The barrier attributes are defined and used to create a quantitative scenario-building model. The probability and severity of various accidents are estimated, by studying barrier reliability and efficiency. This approach is used to develop and simulate accident scenarios and to calculate their consequences. This model can be used in complex systems for analyzing the risk and estimating the importance of barriers.     

面向危险化学品运输监测系统的信息融合模型构建

设计一种可用于危化品运输全过程安全状态实时监测的多参数监测系统,并以该系统为基础,构建面向危化品运输安全监测系统的多传感器信息融合模型。该模型综合利用系统监测到的多种参数信息,通过数据预处理、特征提取和状态判决、形势判决、危险态势估计和预测等4个级别的信息融合,结合危险报警模块和数据库管理系统,自动分析被测数据,最终达到对危化品运输安全分类、分级、分层次报警的目的。以该模型为基础讨论部分信息融合算法并设计相应的软件,在实际构建的针对液化石油气的危化品安全监测系统中进行应用试验,结果说明了信息融合模型的有效性。     

基于虚拟力的危化品仓储堆垛定位校正算法

超宽带定位技术作为一种室内高精度定位技术是解决危化品仓库堆垛贮存状态安全监测的有效方法，但在仓库非视距环境中，存在定位精度不足的问题，无法满足堆垛“五距”安全的监管要求。针对此问题，从UWB信号的信道模型和定位精度影响因素出发，利用高斯滤波消除了参考点在定位过程中由于系统和环境带来的随机误差影响，建立了参考点误差矢量库，并提出了一种虚拟力校正算法，利用建立的矢量库来对待测标签进行矢量补偿，达到提高定位精度的目的。实验表明，该方法可以提高危化品仓储堆垛定位精度，适用于监测危化品仓储状态。     

基于改进风险矩阵法的配气站地震事件序列分析*

为了对天然气配气站进行抗震安全评估,以某天然气配气站为研究对象,通过分析地震事件序列,建立风险矩阵模型,研究系统失效原因及失效概率,评估事件发生后果。结果表明:事件C5,C6风险值相对较低,分别为18.75和15.24;风险矩阵模型能有效减小尖锐边界影响,为配气站采取抗震措施提供理论依据。     

An inverse approach for piping networks monitoring

Spills and leakages of hazardous fluids from piping networks may pose a significant safety risk to population, industrial plants and the environment. Therefore in fluid distribution the problem of monitoring the network status in order to identify abnormal conditions and locate leakages arises. In the paper an inverse approach resorting to a multi-layer perceptron back-propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is proposed, in order to locate leakages based on pressure and flow rate information. Strategies for generating input data and for correlating by ANN such data to the fluid distribution system status are presented. A two-level architecture is selected, composed by a main ANN at the first level and several branch-specific second-level ANNs in cascade to the main one. The branch in which the leakage occurs is identified, resorting to the ANN operating at the first level, while the specific second-level ANN is activated to estimate accurately the magnitude and location of the leakage in the selected branch.     

Study of chemical supply system of high-tech process using inherently safer design strategies in Taiwan

The photoelectric, semiconductor and other high-tech industries are Taiwan's most important economic activities. High-tech plant incidents are caused by hazardous energy, even when that energy is confined to the inside of the process machine. During daily maintenance procedures, overhauling or troubleshooting, engineers entering the interior of the machines are in direct contact with the source of the energy or hazardous substances, which can cause serious injury. The best method for preventing such incidents is to use inherently safer design strategies (ISDs); this approach can fully eliminate the dangers from the sources of hazardous energy at a facility.This study first conducts a lithography process hazard analysis and compiles a statistical analysis of the causes of the fires and losses at high-tech plants in Taiwan since 1996, the aim being to establish the necessary improvement measures by using the Fire Dynamics Simulation (FDS) to solve relevant problems. The researchers also investigate the lithography process machine in order to explore carriage improvement measures, and analyse the fires' causes and reactive materials hazardous properties, from 1996 to 2012. The effective improvement measures are established based on the accident statistics. The study site is a 300 mm wafer fabrication plant located in Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan.After the completion of the annual maintenance jobs improvement from September 2011 to December 2012, the number of lithography process accidents was reduced from 6 to 1. The accident rate was significantly reduced and there were no staff time losses for a continuous 6882 h. It is confirmed that the plant safety level has been effectively enhanced. The researchers offer safety design recommendations regarding transport process appliances, chemical storage tanks, fume cupboard devices, chemical rooms, pumping equipment, transportation pipelines, valve manual box (VMB) process machines and liquid waste discharge lines. These recommendations can be applied in these industries to enhance the safety level of high-tech plants, facilities or process systems.     

基于高分遥感的危险化学品重大危险源安全布局动态管控研究*

为遏制危险化学品重特大安全事故，解决传统安全监测手段的空间局限性问题，结合高分遥感与数值模拟技术，开展危险化学品重大危险源区域安全布局动态管控研究。利用数值模拟技术模拟并确定危险化学品重大危险源重点管控范围；基于高分遥感影像提出适用于危险化学品重大危险源安全布局动态管控的变化检测方法，动态监测安全防护范围内的建筑、道路等人工构筑物的变化情况，严控事故影响范围内的人工构筑物密度；以内江市隆桥化工为实例开展示范应用。结果表明:高分遥感技术能够高效监测危险化学品重大危险源安全防护范围内的工程建设情况，有助于危险化学品企业保持足够的外部安全防护距离，降低危险化学品重特大安全事故风险。     

火电机组氢冷系统安全评价

国外已经对火电厂的安全评价工作进行了一定的研究,但是国内对此项工作的研究还是比较匮乏,尤其对火电厂危险化学品更缺乏相关的安全评价方法及研究。在火力发电厂实际生产中,需使用到大量易燃、易爆危险化学品,由于使用、存储不当,极易造成重大事故。根据某火电厂实际情况,结合安全评价的基本程序,运用道(DOW)化学火灾、爆炸危险指数评价法对火电机组氢冷系统(GRH)单元进行了评价。结果显示,GRH单元的本质危险性很大,经过安全措施补偿后危险性较轻,说明利用道氏法对火电厂危险化学品使用状况进行评价,能够比较准确地反映被评价单位的实际情况,根据评价结果和存在的问题提出有针对性的对策措施,进一步改善火电机组运行环境的安全。评价结果可为火电厂提高安全管理水平提供有价值的参考。