Hydrocarbon releases on oil and gas production platforms: Release scenarios and safety barriers

The main objective of this paper is to present and discuss a set of scenarios that may lead to hydrocarbon releases on offshore oil and gas production platforms. Each release scenario is described by an initiating event (i.e., a deviation), the barrier functions introduced to prevent the initiating event from developing into a release, and how the barrier functions are implemented in terms of barrier systems. Both technical and human/operational safety barriers are considered. The initiating events are divided into five main categories: (1) human and operational errors, (2) technical failures, (3) process upsets, (4) external events or loads, and (5) latent failures from design. The release scenarios may be used as basis for analyses of: (a) the performance of safety barriers introduced to prevent hydrocarbon releases on specific platforms, (b) the platform specific hydrocarbon release frequencies in future quantitative risk analyses, (c) the effect on the total hydrocarbon release frequency of the safety barriers and risk reducing measures (or risk increasing changes).     

Combining HAZOP with dynamic simulation—Applications for safety education

A quantitative variation of the hazard and operability analysis (HAZOP) procedure is demonstrated. The process is divided into sections and dynamic models of the separate sections are prepared. Those models are used in the framework of the HAZOP procedure to determine the magnitude of the deviations from normal operation conditions that may lead to serious accidents and to test design modification to improve the safety characteristic of the process. A process involving an exothermic reaction conducted in a semi-batch reactor is used to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed procedure and its application for safety education and operator training. The programs used for simulating the reactor are available at: ftp://ftp.bgu.ac.il/shacham/OctanoneProd/.

It is shown that the use of those programs can enhance considerably the safety education by providing tools for systematic screening of process deviation associated with possible hazardous events, determining the threshold values that may lead to such events and enabling the examination of a particular design for the adequate safe range of operation.     

Strain-based design criteria of pipelines

Traditional pipeline design analysis methods presented in various codes are usually based on limit stress criteria. However, these methods may be inapposite to modern steels, especially for displacement controlled loads such as ground displacement load. Strain limits, including ovalization limit, tensile strain limit and compression strain limit, are compared in this paper based upon various codes and recommendations. In addition, most factors of strain limits are also reviewed respectively.     

Thermal interaction analysis in pipeline systems: A case study

The assessment of the consequences of high pressure releases of flammable gases is a fundamental requirement for the safe design and operation of industrial installations, plants and pipework. A scenario of interest concerns a high pressure jet-fire following the ignition of a gas jet release which results in a thermal loading to the surroundings and possibly leads to accident escalation.

In the present paper, a case study is presented: two parallel-laid natural gas pipelines have been considered, the accidental scenarios which may possibly occur as a consequence of a pipeline failure have been discussed and the thermal effects caused by the jet-fire developing from different rupture sizes have been assessed.

Three scenarios have been analyzed, considering the pipelines being within a highly congested area: (i) large failure and vertical jet with detached flame; (ii) small failure with jet fire directly impinging on the parallel pipeline; (iii) small failure with pipeline engulfed within fire.

Once the temperature gradient through the pipeline wall has been found, the stresses deriving from pressure load and steel differential expansion have been analytically calculated and compared with the yielding stresses at the temperature achieved by the pipeline wall.

In the first scenario the pipeline is able to resist without major problems; in the second case the pipeline rupture is likely to occur; in the third scenario the pipeline resists to the applied loads but with a low margin to yielding.

It is understood that the analysis results are very much dependent on the utilized hypotheses, therefore a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to assess the variation of the results as a function of the variation of problem data; this analysis identifies the large influence of the parameters on the final result.     

Risk-based quantitative method for determining blast-resistant and defense loads of petrochemical buildings

Petrochemical buildings are usually distributed near chemical installations and have a high risk of explosion because of the concentration of people. In order to effectively design and protect buildings against explosion, it is needed to determine the blast-resistant and defense loads reasonably. Based on the theory of risk, a triangular pyramid explosion risk model was established in this study, which combined the overpressure p, duration t, and frequency f of the explosion scene at the same time. The first principle of “acceptable cumulative frequency” and the key principle of “maximum explosion risk” were formulated. According to this method, the explosion risk of eight leakage units with 10 groups of leakage hole size and three dangerous wind directions were obtained. According to the cumulative explosion frequency curve and the explosion risk curve, blast-resistant and defense loads of the four walls were determined quantitatively. Among the four walls, the explosion overpressure were 44.0–74.5 kPa, and the corresponding duration were 34.1–39.1 ms. The cumulative explosion frequency were 2.11E−5 to 8.58E−5 times annually. The explosion risk value were 3.64E−3 to 5.35E−3 kPa·ms annually. The results indicated that it was of great importance for the calculation of the explosion risk to reasonably divide the leakage unit and determine the leakage frequency. The explosion scene and its frequency, the volume of the obstructed region, and the distance of the explosion source were the key variables that affected the explosive load. The final blast-resistant and defense load values were found in the case of the middle hole size leakage. Blast-resistant and defense loads not only met the risk acceptance standard but also considered the overpressure and the duration of explosion. At present, they have been extensively applied in the blast-resistant design and engineering transformation of buildings in SINOPEC.     

大跨度钢结构人行悬索桥受力性能对比分析

为了提高大跨度钢结构人行悬索桥的安全性能,以某实际工程为依托,采用有限元软件Midas/Civil建立整体空间模型,分析单缆体系和双缆体系在人群荷载和风荷载作用下的受力特点以及自振频率特性。结果表明:人群荷载作用下,双缆体系的底缆承担更多荷载,主梁挠度相比单缆体系减小约15%;风荷载作用下,两种结构体系主梁弯矩和挠度的变化趋势比较相似,双缆体系的弯矩和挠度均小于单缆体系;双缆体系的侧弯频率、竖弯频率、竖振频率以及侧振频率相比单缆体系均有所增加。双缆体系具有更优的力学性能,提高了工程安全性,并为类似工程的桥型选择提供有力参考。     

排土场与爆破荷载共同作用下的露天矿边坡稳定性分析

目前排土场对露天矿边坡稳定性的影响和动力荷载对露天矿边坡稳定性的影响,大多是被分别研究的。这样做难以真实反映露天矿边坡实际受力状态。基于此,对排土场和爆破荷载共同作用下露天矿边坡稳定性进行研究。首先,通过室内试验确定岩体参数,分析露天矿边坡在排土场和自重情况下的变形特征,并以此为初始状态,采用Ansys/ls-dyna的隐式-显式分析功能,研究其在爆破荷载作用下的岩体的响应特征。其次,验证新疆某露天矿排土场距离设置是否满足开采要求。结果表明:该露天矿边坡未出现明显破坏特征,整体处于稳定状态,该排土场距离设计合理;研究结果与工程类比分析结论一致。     

冰雪灾害对川南森林可燃物的影响

冰雪灾害是影响森林的一个重要气象干扰因素,并会引起生态系统中其他次生干扰。研究冰雪灾害对森林可燃物的影响,提出可行的灾后可燃物管理技术将为今后应对类似的极端气候事件提供科学依据。基于对川南典型森林雪灾后受损情况调查,定量分析雪灾对各类可燃物的影响。按不同森林类型和受灾强度测定林分基本特征和各类可燃物载量,地表可燃物载量调查采用线状相交可燃物调查方法。结果表明：森林受害程度与树种、林龄、海拔、地形等因素有关,针叶林和针阔混交林树冠受损程度为5%~45%,阔叶林树冠受损程度为3%~8%。雪灾引起的主要是较大径级可燃物载量显著增加,径级≥7.0cm的可燃物占可燃物增量的48%~100%。灾后阔叶林地表径级可燃物载量达1.75 kg/m2,其他林分为0.18kg/m2~0.55 kg/m2。雪灾还改变可燃物空间分布,大量断枝和折断树干增加了可燃物垂直分布连续性,地表火更容易发展为树冠火。受灾严重的林分郁闭度下降,也会引起林下草本增加,有利于火灾的发生与发展。建议对受灾林分的地表可燃物清理以人工或机械清理为主。     

Fire and explosion risk assessment for large-scale oil export terminal

Now in Russian Federation and other countries large-scale oil terminals (volume of one tank exceeds 100 000 m³, total volume of tanks exceeds 300 000 m³) are designed and constructed. Therefore fire safety of such objects becomes a very important task, solution of which is hardly possible without detail fire risk assessment. This study is aimed to a solution of this problem. Potential, individual and social risks were calculated. The potential risk was defined as a frequency of occurrence of hazardous factors of fires and explosions in a given point of space (the so-called risk contours). The individual risk was defined as a frequency of injuring a given person by hazardous factors of fires and explosions. Time of presence of this person in hazardous zones (near the hazardous installation) is taken into account during calculations of the individual risk. Social risk was defined as a dependence of frequency of injuring a given number of people by hazardous factors of fires and explosions on this number. In practice the social risk is usually determined on injuring not less than 10 people.

The oil terminal under consideration includes the following main parts: crude oil storage consisting of three tanks of volume 100 000 m³ each, input crude oil pipeline of diameter 0.6 m, crude oil pumps, output crude oil pipeline of diameter 0.8 m, auxiliary buildings and facilities. The following main scenarios of tank fires have been considered: rim seal fire, pool fire on a surface of a floating roof, pool fire on a total cross-section surface of the tank, pool fire in a dyke, explosions in closed or semiclosed volumes. Fires and explosions in other parts of the terminal are also taken into account. Effects of escalation of accidents are considered.

Risk contours have been calculated both for the territory of the terminal and for the neighbouring space. The potential risk for the storage zone is near 10⁻⁴–10⁻⁵ year⁻¹, and at a distance 500 m from the terminal the potential risk values do not exceed 10⁻⁶ year⁻¹. The values of the individual risk for various categories of workers are in the range of 10⁻⁵–10⁻⁶ year⁻¹. Because of low number of the workers on the terminal and large distances to towns and villages the social risk value is negligible. These risk values are consistent with practice of the best oil companies, and fire hazard level of the terminal can be accepted as tolerable.     

Experts,Bayesian Belief Networks,rare events and aviation risk estimates

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) are conceptually sensible models for aviation risk assessment. The aim here is to examine the ability of BBN-based techniques to make accurate aviation risk predictions. BBNs consist of a framework of causal factors linked by conditional probabilities. BBN conditional probabilities are elicited from aviation experts. The issue is that experts are not being asked about their expertise but about others’ failure rates. A simple model of expertise, which incorporates the main features proposed by researchers, implies that a best-expert’s estimates of failure rates are based on accessible quantitative data on accidents, incidents, etc. Best-expert estimates will use the best available and accessible data. Depending on the frequency of occurrence, this will be data on similar events, on similar types of event, or general mental rules about event frequencies. These considerations, plus the need to be cautious about statistical fluctuations, limit the accuracy of conditional probability estimates. The BBN framework assumes what is known as the Causal Markov Condition. In the present context, this assumes that there are no hidden common causes for sequences of failure events. Examples are given from safety regulation comparisons and serious accident investigations to indicate that common causes may be frequent occurrences in aviation. This is because some States/airlines have safety cultures that do not meet ‘best practice’. BBN accuracy might be improved by using data from controlled experiments. Aviation risk assessment is now very difficult, so further work on resilience engineering could be a better way of achieving safety improvements.     

The safety impact of the 65 mph speed limit: A case study using Alabama accident records

On August 1, 1987, a change in Alabama laws went into effect raising the speed limit on the rural interstates to 65 mph. Two accident data sets (one year before and one year after the law change) were compared to assess the impact of the 65 mph speed limit on severity and frequency of accidents. Although accident severity appeared to remain the same from before to after time periods, the frequency of accidents on the rural interstates increased significantly, by 18.88%. However, the significant increase on the rural interstates was accompanied by a nonsignificant decrease of 456 accidents in the entire state of Alabama. This confounding result made it difficult to isolate the cause of various significant changes, but the overall evidence is not favorable to the recent increases in driving speeds.     

Differences and similarities of gas and dust explosions: A critical evaluation of the European ‘ATEX’ directives in relation to dusts

Explosive gas mixtures and explosive dust clouds, once existing, exhibit similar ignition and combustion features. However, there are two basic differences between dusts and gases which are of substantially greater significance in design of safety standards than these similarities. Firstly, the physics of generation and up-keeping of dust clouds and premixed gas/vapour clouds are substantially different. This means that in most situations where accidental explosive gas clouds may be produced quite readily, generation of explosive dust clouds would be highly unlikely. Secondly, contrary to premixed gas flame propagation, the propagation of flames in dust/air mixtures is not limited only to the flammable dust concentration range of dynamic clouds. The state of stagnant layers/deposits offers an additional discrete possibility of flame propagation.

The two European Directives 94/9/EC (1994) and 1999/92/EC (1999) primarily address gases/vapours, whereas the particular properties of dusts are not addressed adequately. Some recent IEC and European dust standards resulting from this deficiency are discussed, and the need for revising the two directives accordingly is emphasized.     

建筑物可靠性评价

探讨了现存建筑物可靠性评价的极限状态方法,提出荷载水平方法,建立了结构构件可靠性评价的极限状态准则。基于结构失效的机构理论,提出结构体系可靠性评价的“破损机构”方法,以使结构成为“破损机构”或“局部破损机构”的“破损截面”的最高等级作为结构体系可靠性评级。     

基于蒙特卡罗法的煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性分析

应用工程结构可靠性理论,建立煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性模型,针对其结构稳定性的极限状态功能函数高度非线性的特征,采用蒙特卡罗法在Matlab环境下直接产生服从各相应概率分布函数的随机变量数组计算其结构可靠度,编程过程简化,计算速度快,精度高,且不受极限状态方程非线性、随机变量非正态的限制,开辟了煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠度计算的新途径。建立了支护参数与可靠度的关系,指出了提高煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠度的方法和措施,为煤巷锚杆支护参数设计和优化提供了科学依据。     

Towards proactive monitoring in the petrochemical industry

Unanticipated events can result in severe financial and human losses. The best solution is to have operators who can monitor proactively and respond to small changes to maintain the plant in a safe state. This paper examines the requirements for proactive monitoring and proposes ecological interface design as one possible way of supporting this behavior. Several examples of ecological graphics are included for demonstration.     

Effects of legal BAC limits on fatal crash involvement: analyses of 28 states from 1976 through 2002

PROBLEM: Hundreds of laws have been implemented in the United States over the past few decades designed to reduce alcohol-impaired driving and the crashes that often result. One approach has been to lower the legally allowable alcohol concentration for drivers. We examined the effects of changes in legal BAC limit in 28 U.S. states from January, 1976 to December, 2002. METHOD: An interrupted time-series quasi-experimental design was used, incorporating non-alcohol-related crashes as comparisons. Four outcome measures of alcohol-related crash involvement were examined: single-vehicle nighttime, BAC=0.01-0.07, BAC=0.08-0.14, and BAC>/=0.15. Missing BAC test result data were handled by using multiple imputations. Analyses involved estimation of state-specific ARIMA models, controlling for other factors affecting overall crash rates and other major DUI policy changes. Inverse variance weighting methods were used to pool results across states for the most precise underlying estimate of effect of legal BAC limits. RESULTS: Considerable state by state variability in estimated effects was observed, but results from the pooled analyses were clear and consistent. Changes in legal BAC limits significantly affected alcohol-related fatal crash involvement for both the SVN and BAC test result measures, and the laws affected drivers at all drinking levels. SUMMARY: An estimated 360 deaths are prevented each year in the United States as a result of the move from a 0.10 to 0.08 legal limit in recent years, and an additional 538 lives could be saved each year if the United States reduced the limit to 0.05, consistent with limits in most countries worldwide. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Given the significant effects of lower legal BAC limits on fatal crash involvement, businesses should support implementation of laws that further reduce the legal BAC limit for all drivers. Furthermore, all companies should set higher standards for employees, such as a zero allowable BAC limit for driving during work time.     

Driver Behavior During Overtaking Maneuvers from the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study

Objective: Lane changes with the intention to overtake the vehicle in front are especially challenging scenarios for forward collision warning (FCW) designs. These overtaking maneuvers can occur at high relative vehicle speeds and often involve no brake and/or turn signal application. Therefore, overtaking presents the potential of erroneously triggering the FCW. A better understanding of driver behavior during lane change events can improve designs of this human–machine interface and increase driver acceptance of FCW. The objective of this study was to aid FCW design by characterizing driver behavior during lane change events using naturalistic driving study data.

Methods: The analysis was based on data from the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study, collected by the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute. The 100-Car study contains approximately 1.2 million vehicle miles of driving and 43,000 h of data collected from 108 primary drivers. In order to identify overtaking maneuvers from a large sample of driving data, an algorithm to automatically identify overtaking events was developed. The lead vehicle and minimum time to collision (TTC) at the start of lane change events was identified using radar processing techniques developed in a previous study. The lane change identification algorithm was validated against video analysis, which manually identified 1,425 lane change events from approximately 126 full trips.

Results: Forty-five drivers with valid time series data were selected from the 100-Car study. From the sample of drivers, our algorithm identified 326,238 lane change events. A total of 90,639 lane change events were found to involve a closing lead vehicle. Lane change events were evenly distributed between left side and right side lane changes. The characterization of lane change frequency and minimum TTC was divided into 10 mph speed bins for vehicle travel speeds between 10 and 90 mph. For all lane change events with a closing lead vehicle, the results showed that drivers change lanes most frequently in the 40–50 mph speed range. Minimum TTC was found to increase with travel speed. The variability in minimum TTC between drivers also increased with travel speed.

Conclusions: This study developed and validated an algorithm to detect lane change events in the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study and characterized lane change events in the database. The characterization of driver behavior in lane change events showed that driver lane change frequency and minimum TTC vary with travel speed. The characterization of overtaking maneuvers from this study will aid in improving the overall effectiveness of FCW systems by providing active safety system designers with further understanding of driver action in overtaking maneuvers, thereby increasing system warning accuracy, reducing erroneous warnings, and improving driver acceptance.     

Combating interference by unauthorised persons

Under the new threat situation it is necessary to impede and if necessary detect ingress by unauthorised persons into the relevant establishment. It may be necessary to take additional measures to protect installations or parts thereof that are especially hazardous or at risk from terrorist attacks from interference by unauthorised persons.

It is the duty of the state to take precautionary and preventive measures to impede or prevent external terrorist attacks or entry by force into establishments. The necessary resources for this purpose must be made available even in times of limited budgets.

Since total protection can never be guaranteed, external emergency measures have a particularly important role to play. The competent authorities in this sector must receive the necessary information from the operators and must take the measures within their sphere of responsibility without delay.

Much of the information necessary for assessment of the risk situation by the operators and the authorities is already available under the provisions on the safety report and the external alarm and emergency plans according to European Seveso II Directive (96/82/EC).

It is recommended that a restriction of disclosure of information on the grounds of public safety should only be permitted for establishments/installations which are to be regarded as security-relevant on the basis of the hazard and the risk analysis.

The outline of the systematic approach of a security analysis like it is proposed in Germany is described separately.     

Modeling of BP Texas City refinery incident

This paper presents detailed modeling results of the BP Texas City refinery incident. Three different approaches and explosion modeling tools were used to study the event. The results predicted by all three approaches are similar and all approaches identified a hazard potential comparable to what was witnessed on March 23, 2005. This confirms that quantitative risk assessment (QRA) has the ability to model a realistic scenario, and is therefore useful in safety measure design and emergency preparedness decision making to improve overall safety performance. Had QRA been conducted during a management of change (MOC) decision-making process, personnel trailers likely would not have been sited in such close proximity to the process units. The resulting severe consequences would then not have occurred. This work also aims to emphasize the importance of QRA in process safety management.

The paper presents the authors’ perception of the sequence of events involved in the incident based on the published literature available at the time of writing. It also assesses potential consequences for the perceived sequence of events using a variety of consequence assessment tools. In doing so, the analysis illustrates how this incident could have been prevented in spite of many operational difficulties. The observations and commentary presented in this paper are intended solely for the purpose of process safety enhancement on the basis of the lessons learned. BP has published its own detailed report; the incident is also the subject of a recent investigation by the US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, with the CSB's final report being available at http://www.csb.gov/index.cfm?folder=completed_investigations&page=info&INV_ID=52 (as of April 2007).     

多元可燃性气体爆炸压力与中间产物发射光谱特性的耦合研究

工业生产中爆炸事故往往是由多元可燃气体与空气混合后遇到明火而引起的，为研究乙烷（C₂H₆）、乙烯（C₂H₄）、一氧化碳（CO）、氢气（H₂）对甲烷爆炸特性的影响，选取多组分可燃气体甲烷爆炸压力特性和自由基发射光谱的影响进行研究，利用陕西省工业过程安全与应急救援工程技术研究中心重点实验室搭建的多功能球形气体/粉尘爆炸实验装置和单色仪进行爆炸实验测试，同步采集时间—压力曲线、中间产物（OH，CH₂O）的发射光谱信号，考察多组分可燃气体浓度对甲烷爆炸压力特性和中间产物的影响。结果表明:在富氧状态下，多组分可燃气体加剧了甲烷—空气混合体系的爆炸剧烈程度，随着体系中氧气含量的减少、由富氧状态变为贫氧状态、促进作用逐渐减弱转变为阻尼作用，爆炸压力特性与中间产物发射光谱参数的影响规律基本保持一致，均呈高度正相关；多元混合体系爆炸剧烈程度越大，自由基发射光谱达到峰值的速度越快，自由基更早、更快的积累是加剧爆炸程度的原因之一。