Multi-agent traffic simulations to estimate the impact of automated technologies on safety

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this article was to develop a multi-agent traffic simulation methodology to estimate the potential road safety improvements of automated vehicle technologies.

Methods: We developed a computer program that merges road infrastructure data with a large number of vehicles, drivers, and pedestrians. Human errors are induced by modeling inattention, aimless driving, insufficient safety confirmation, misjudgment, and inadequate operation. The program was applied to simulate traffic in a prescribed area in Tsukuba city. First, a 100% manual driving scenario was set to simulate traffic for a total preset vehicle travel distance. The crashes from this simulation were compared with real-world crash data from the prescribed area from 2012 to 2017. Thereafter, 4 additional scenarios of increasing levels of automation penetration (including combinations of automated emergency braking [AEB], lane departure warning [LDW], and SAE Level 4 functions) were implemented to estimate their impact on safety.

Results: Under manual driving, the system simulated a total of 859 crashes including single-car lane departure, car-to-car, and car-to-pedestrian crashes. These crashes tended to occur in locations similar to real-world crashes. The number of crashes predicted decreased to 156 cases with increasing level of automation. All of the technologies considered contributed to the decrease in crashes. Crash reductions attributable to AEB and LDW in the simulations were comparable to those reported in recent field studies. For the highest levels of automation, no assessment data were available and hence the results should be carefully treated. Further, in modeling automated functions, potentially negative aspects such as sensing failure or human overreliance were not incorporated.

Conclusions: We developed a multi-agent traffic simulation methodology to estimate the effect of different automated vehicle technologies on safety. The crash locations resulting from simulations of manual driving within a limited area in Japan were preliminary assessed by comparison with real-world crash data collected in the same area. Increasing penetration levels of AEB and LDW led to a large reduction in both the frequency and severity of rear-end crashes, followed by car-to-car head-on crashes and single-vehicle lane departure crashes. Preliminary estimations of the potential safety improvements that may be achieved with highly automated driving technologies were also obtained.     

Analysis of Driver Evasive Maneuvering Prior to Intersection Crashes Using Event Data Recorders

Objective: Intersection crashes account for over 4,500 fatalities in the United States each year. Intersection Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (I-ADAS) are emerging vehicle-based active safety systems that have the potential to help drivers safely navigate across intersections and prevent intersection crashes and injuries. The performance of an I-ADAS is expected to be highly dependent upon driver evasive maneuvering prior to an intersection crash. Little has been published, however, on the detailed evasive kinematics followed by drivers prior to real-world intersection crashes. The objective of this study was to characterize the frequency, timing, and kinematics of driver evasive maneuvers prior to intersection crashes.

Methods: Event data recorders (EDRs) downloaded from vehicles involved in intersection crashes were investigated as part of NASS-CDS years 2001 to 2013. A total of 135 EDRs with precrash vehicle speed and braking application were downloaded to investigate evasive braking. A smaller subset of 59 EDRs that collected vehicle yaw rate was additionally analyzed to investigate evasive steering. Each vehicle was assigned to one of 3 precrash movement classifiers (traveling through the intersection, completely stopped, or rolling stop) based on the vehicle's calculated acceleration and observed velocity profile. To ensure that any significant steering input observed was an attempted evasive maneuver, the analysis excluded vehicles at intersections that were turning, driving on a curved road, or performing a lane change. Braking application at the last EDR-recorded time point was assumed to indicate evasive braking. A vehicle yaw rate greater than 4° per second was assumed to indicate an evasive steering maneuver.

Results: Drivers executed crash avoidance maneuvers in four-fifths of intersection crashes. A more detailed analysis of evasive braking frequency by precrash maneuver revealed that drivers performing complete or rolling stops (61.3%) braked less often than drivers traveling through the intersection without yielding (79.0%). After accounting for uncertainty in the timing of braking and steering data, the median evasive braking time was found to be between 0.5 to 1.5 s prior to impact, and the median initial evasive steering time was found to occur between 0.5 and 0.9 s prior to impact. The median average evasive braking deceleration for all cases was found to be 0.58 g. The median of the maximum evasive vehicle yaw rates was found to be 8.2° per second. Evasive steering direction was found to be most frequently in the direction of travel of the approaching vehicle.

Conclusions: The majority of drivers involved in intersection crashes were alert enough to perform an evasive action. Most drivers used a combination of steering and braking to avoid a crash. The average driver attempted to steer and brake at approximately the same time prior to the crash.     

Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

The effectiveness of lane departure warning systems—A reduction in real-world passenger car injury crashes

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the safety benefits of in vehicle lane departure warning (LDW) and lane keeping aid (LKA) systems in reducing relevant real-world passenger car injury crashes.

Methods: The study used an induced exposure method, where LDW/LKA-sensitive and nonsensitive crashes were compared for Volvo passenger cars equipped with and without LDW/LKA systems. These crashes were matched by car make, model, model year, and technical equipment; that is, low-speed autonomous emergency braking (AEB) called City Safety (CS). The data were extracted from the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition database (STRADA) and consisted of 1,853 driver injury crashes that involved 146 LDW-equipped cars, 11 LKA-equipped cars, and 1,696 cars without LDW/LKA systems.

Results: The analysis showed a positive effect of the LDW/LKA systems in reducing lane departure crashes. The LDW/LKA systems were estimated to reduce head-on and single-vehicle injury crashes on Swedish roads with speed limits between 70 and 120 km/h and with dry or wet road surfaces (i.e., not covered by ice or snow) by 53% with a lower limit of 11% (95% confidence interval [CI]). This reduction corresponded to a reduction of 30% with a lower limit of 6% (95% CI) for all head-on and single-vehicle driver injury crashes (including all speed limits and all road surface conditions).

Conclusions: LDW/LKA systems were estimated to lower the driver injury risk in crash types that the systems are designed to prevent; that is, head-on and single-vehicle crashes. Though these are important findings, they were based on a small data set. Therefore, further research is desirable to evaluate the effectiveness of LDW/LKA systems under real-world conditions and to differentiate the effectiveness between technical solutions (i.e., LDW and LKA) proposed by different manufacturers.     

Crash and injury prevention estimates for intersection driver assistance systems in left turn across path/opposite direction crashes in the United States

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this research study was to estimate the number of left turn across path/opposite direction (LTAP/OD) crashes and injuries that could be prevented in the United States if vehicles were equipped with an intersection advanced driver assistance system (I-ADAS).

Methods: This study reconstructed 501 vehicle-to-vehicle LTAP/OD crashes in the United States that were investigated in the NHTSA National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVCCS). The performance of 30 different I-ADAS system variations was evaluated for each crash. These variations were the combinations of 5 time-to-collision (TTC) activation thresholds, 3 latency times, and 2 different response types (automated braking and driver warning). In addition, 2 sightline assumptions were modeled for each crash: One where the turning vehicle was visible long before the intersection and one where the turning vehicle was only visible within the intersection. For resimulated crashes that were not avoided by I-ADAS, a new crash delta-V was computed for each vehicle. The probability of Abbreviated Injury Scale 2 or higher injury in any body region (Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale [MAIS] 2+F) to each front-row occupant was computed.

Results: Depending on the system design, sightline assumption, I-ADAS variation, and fleet penetration, an I-ADAS system that automatically applies emergency braking could avoid 18–84% of all LTAP/OD crashes. Only 0–32% of all LTAP/OD crashes could have been avoided using an I-ADAS system that only warns the driver. An I-ADAS system that applies emergency braking could prevent 47–93% of front-row occupants from receiving MAIS 2?+?F injuries. A system that warns the driver in LTAP/OD crashes was able to prevent 0–37% of front-row occupants from receiving MAIS 2?+?F injuries. The effectiveness of I-ADAS in reducing crashes and number of injured persons was higher when both vehicles were equipped with I-ADAS.

Conclusions: This study presents the simulated effectiveness of a hypothetical intersection active safety system on real crashes that occurred in the United States. This work shows that there is a strong potential to reduce crashes and injuries in the United States.     

Injury Outcome in Crashes with Guardrail End Terminals

Objective: The goal of this study is to evaluate the crash performance of guardrail end terminals in real-world crashes. Guardrail end terminals are installed at the ends of guardrail systems to prevent the rail from spearing through the car in an end-on collision. Recently, there has been a great deal of controversy as to the safety of certain widely used end terminal designs, partly because there is surprisingly little real-world crash data for end terminals. Most existing studies of end terminal crashes used data from prior to the mid-1990s. Since then, there have been large improvements to vehicle crashworthiness and seat belt usage rates, as well as new roadside safety hardware compliant with National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 350, “Recommended Procedures for the Safety Performance Evaluation of Highway Features.” Additionally, most existing studies of injury in end terminal crashes do not account for factors such as the occurrence of rollover. This analysis uses more recent crash data that represent post-1990s vehicle fleet changes and account for a number of factors that may affect driver injury outcome and rollover occurrence.

Methods: Passenger vehicle crashes coded as involving guardrail end terminals were identified in the set of police-reported crashes in Michigan in 2011 and 2012. End terminal performance was expected to be a function of end terminal system design. State crash databases generally do not identify specific end terminal systems. In this study, the coded crash location was used to obtain photographs of the crash site prior to the crash from Google Street View. These site photographs were manually inspected to identify the particular end terminal system involved in the crash. Multiple logistic regression was used to test for significant differences in the odds of driver injury and rollover between different terminal types while accounting for other factors.

Results: A total of 1,001 end terminal crashes from the 2011–2012 Michigan State crash data were manually inspected to identify the terminal that had been struck. Four hundred fifty-one crashes were found to be suitable for analysis. Serious to fatal driver injury occurred in 3.8% of end terminal crashes, moderate to fatal driver injury occurred in 11.8%, and 72.3% involved property damage only. No significant difference in moderate to fatal driver injury odds was observed between NCHRP 350 compliant end terminals and noncompliant terminals. Car drivers showed odds of moderate to fatal injury 3.6 times greater than LTV drivers in end terminal crashes. Rollover occurrence was not significantly associated with end terminal type.

Conclusions: Car drivers have greater potential for injury in end terminal crashes than light truck/van/sport utility vehicle drivers. End terminal designs compliant with NCHRP 350 did not appear to carry different odds of moderate driver injury than noncompliant end terminals. The findings account for driver seat belt use, rollover occurrence, terminal orientation (leading/trailing), control loss, and the number of impact events. Rollover and nonuse of seat belts carried much larger increases in injury potential than end terminal type. Rollover did not appear to be associated with NCHRP 350 compliance.     

Motorcycle crashes potentially preventable by three crash avoidance technologies on passenger vehicles

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify and quantify the motorcycle crash population that would be potential beneficiaries of 3 crash avoidance technologies recently available on passenger vehicles.

Methods: Two-vehicle crashes between a motorcycle and a passenger vehicle that occurred in the United States during 2011–2015 were classified by type, with consideration of the functionality of 3 classes of passenger vehicle crash avoidance technologies: frontal crash prevention, lane maintenance, and blind spot detection. Results were expressed as the percentage of crashes potentially preventable by each type of technology, based on all known types of 2-vehicle crashes and based on all crashes involving motorcycles.

Results: Frontal crash prevention had the largest potential to prevent 2-vehicle motorcycle crashes with passenger vehicles. The 3 technologies in sum had the potential to prevent 10% of fatal 2-vehicle crashes and 23% of police-reported crashes. However, because 2-vehicle crashes with a passenger vehicle represent fewer than half of all motorcycle crashes, these technologies represent a potential to avoid 4% of all fatal motorcycle crashes and 10% of all police-reported motorcycle crashes.

Discussion: Refining the ability of passenger vehicle crash avoidance systems to detect motorcycles represents an opportunity to improve motorcycle safety. Expanding the capabilities of these technologies represents an even greater opportunity. However, even fully realizing these opportunities can affect only a minority of motorcycle crashes and does not change the need for other motorcycle safety countermeasures such as helmets, universal helmet laws, and antilock braking systems.     

Effects of lane departure warning on police-reported crash rates

ObjectiveTo evaluate the effects of lane departure warning (LDW) on single-vehicle, sideswipe, and head-on crashes.MethodPolice-reported data for the relevant crash types were obtained from 25 U.S. states for the years 2009–2015. Observed counts of crashes with fatalities, injuries, and of all severities for vehicles with LDW were compared with expected counts based on crash involvement rates for the same passenger vehicles without LDW, with exposure by vehicle series, model year, and lighting system standardized between groups. For relevant crashes of all severities and those with injuries, Poisson regression was used to estimate the benefits of LDW while also controlling for demographic variables; fatal crashes were too infrequent to be modeled.ResultsWithout accounting for driver demographics, vehicles with LDW had significantly lower involvement rates in crashes of all severities (18%), in those with injuries (24%), and in those with fatalities (86%). Adding controls for driver demographics in the Poisson regression reduced the estimated benefit of LDW only modestly in crashes of all severities (11%, p < 0.05) and in crashes with injuries (21%, p < 0.07).ConclusionsLane departure warning is preventing the crash types it is designed to address, even after controlling for driver demographics. Results suggest that thousands of lives each year could be saved if every passenger vehicle in the United States were equipped with a lane departure warning system that performed like the study systems.Practical applicationsPurchase of LDW should be encouraged, and, because drivers do not always keep the systems turned on, future efforts should focus on designing systems to encourage greater use and educating consumers about the benefits of using the systems.     

Association Between NCAP Ratings and Real-World Rear Seat Occupant Risk of Injury

Objective: Several studies have evaluated the correlation between U.S. or Euro New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) ratings and injury risk to front seat occupants, in particular driver injuries. Conversely, little is known about whether NCAP 5-star ratings predict real-world risk of injury to restrained rear seat occupants. The NHTSA has identified rear seat occupant protection as a specific area under consideration for improvements to its NCAP. In order to inform NHTSA's efforts, we examined how NCAP's current 5-star rating system predicts risk of moderate or greater injury among restrained rear seat occupants in real-world crashes.

Methods: We identified crash-involved vehicles, model year 2004–2013, in NASS-CDS (2003–2012) with known make and model and nonmissing occupant information. We manually matched these vehicles to their NCAP star ratings using data on make, model, model year, body type, and other identifying information. The resultant linked NASS-CDS and NCAP database was analyzed to examine associations between vehicle ratings and rear seat occupant injury risk; risk to front seat occupants was also estimated for comparison. Data were limited to restrained occupants and occupant injuries were defined as any injury with a maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of 2 or greater.

Results: We linked 95% of vehicles in NASS-CDS to a specific vehicle in NCAP. The 18,218 vehicles represented an estimated 6 million vehicles with over 9 million occupants. Rear seat passengers accounted for 12.4% of restrained occupants. The risk of injury in all crashes for restrained rear seat occupants was lower in vehicles with a 5-star driver rating in frontal impact tests (1.4%) than with 4 or fewer stars (2.6%, P =.015); results were similar for the frontal impact passenger rating (1.3% vs. 2.4%, P =.024). Conversely, side impact driver and passenger crash tests were not associated with rear seat occupant injury risk (driver test: 1.7% for 5-star vs. 1.8% for 1–4 stars; passenger test: 1.6% for 5 stars vs 1.8% for 1–4 stars).

Conclusions: Current frontal impact test procedures provide some degree of discrimination in real-world rear seat injury risk among vehicles with 5 compared to fewer than 5 stars. However, there is no evidence that vehicles with a 5-star side impact passenger rating, which is the only crash test procedure to include an anthropomorphic test dummy (ATD) in the rear, demonstrate lower risks of injury in the rear than vehicles with fewer than 5 stars. These results support prioritizing modifications to the NCAP program that specifically evaluate rear seat injury risk to restrained occupants of all ages.     

Characteristics of rear-end crashes involving passenger vehicles with automatic emergency braking

Abstract

Objectives: Automatic emergency braking (AEB) is a proven effective countermeasure for preventing front-to-rear crashes, but it has not yet fully lived up to its estimated potential. This study identified the types of rear-end crashes in which striking vehicles with AEB are overrepresented to determine whether the system is more effective in some situations than in others, so that additional opportunities for increasing AEB effectiveness might be explored.

Methods: Rear-end crash involvements were extracted from 23?U.S. states during 2009–2016 for striking passenger vehicles with and without AEB among models where the system was optional. Logistic regression was used to examine the odds that rear-end crashes with various characteristics involved a striking vehicle with AEB, controlling for driver and vehicle features.

Results: Striking vehicles were significantly more likely to have AEB in crashes where the striking vehicle was turning relative to when it was moving straight (odds ratio [OR]?=?2.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.76, 3.13); when the struck vehicle was turning (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.25, 2.21) or changing lanes (OR = 2.05; 95% CI, 1.13, 3.72) relative to when it was slowing or stopped; when the struck vehicle was not a passenger vehicle or was a special use vehicle relative to a car (OR = 1.61; 95% CI, 1.01, 2.55); on snowy or icy roads relative to dry roads (OR = 1.83; 95% CI, 1.16, 2.86); or on roads with speed limits of 70+ mph relative to those with 40 to 45?mph speed limits (OR = 1.49; 95% CI, 1.10, 2.03). Overall, 25.3% of crashes where the striking vehicle had AEB had at least one of these overrepresented characteristics, compared with 15.9% of strikes by vehicles without AEB.

Conclusions: The typical rear-end crash occurs when 2 passenger vehicles are proceeding in line, on a dry road, and at lower speeds. Because atypical crash circumstances are overrepresented among rear-end crashes by striking vehicles with AEB, it appears that the system is doing a better job of preventing the more typical crash scenario. Consumer information testing programs of AEB use a test configuration that models the typical rear-end crash type. Testing programs promoting good AEB performance in crash circumstances where vehicles with AEB are overrepresented could guide future development of AEB systems that perform well in these additional rear-end collision scenarios.     

Crash risk factors for interstate large trucks in North Carolina

Introduction: Provide an updated examination of risk factors for large truck involvements in crashes resulting in injury or death. Methods: A matched case–control study was conducted in North Carolina of large trucks operated by interstate carriers. Cases were defined as trucks involved in crashes resulting in fatal or non-fatal injury, and one control truck was matched on the basis of location, weekday, time of day, and truck type. The matched-pair odds ratio provided an estimate of the effect of various driver, vehicle, or carrier factors. Results: Out-of-service (OOS) brake violations tripled the risk of crashing; any OOS vehicle defect increased crash risk by 362%. Higher historical crash rates (fatal, injury, or all crashes) of the carrier were associated with increased risk of crashing. Operating on a short-haul exemption increased crash risk by 383%. Antilock braking systems reduced crash risk by 65%. All of these results were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Other safety technologies also showed estimated benefits, although not statistically significant. Conclusions: With the exception of the finding that short-haul exemption is associated with increased crash risk, results largely bolster what is currently known about large truck crash risk and reinforce current enforcement practices. Results also suggest vehicle safety technologies can be important in lowering crash risk. This means that as safety technology continues to penetrate the fleet, whether from voluntary usage or government mandates, reductions in large truck crashes may be achieved. Practical application: Results imply that increased enforcement and use of crash avoidance technologies can improve the large truck crash problem.     

Occurrence of Serious Injury in Real-World Side Impacts of Vehicles with Good Side-Impact Protection Ratings

Objective: The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) introduced its side impact consumer information test program in 2003. Since that time, side airbags and structural improvements have been implemented across the fleet and the proportion of good ratings has increased to 93% of 2012–2014 model year vehicles. Research has shown that drivers of good-rated vehicles are 70% less likely to die in a left-side crash than drivers of poor-rated vehicles. Despite these improvements, side impact fatalities accounted for about one quarter of passenger vehicle occupant fatalities in 2012. This study is a detailed analysis of real-world cases with serious injury resulting from side crashes of vehicles with good ratings in the IIHS side impact test.

Methods: NASS-CDS and Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) were queried for occupants of good-rated vehicles who sustained an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) ≥ 3 injury in a side-impact crash. The resulting 110 cases were categorized by impact configuration and other factors that contributed to injury. Patterns of impact configuration, restraint performance, and occupant injury were identified and discussed in the context of potential upgrades to the current IIHS side impact test.

Results: Three quarters of the injured occupants were involved in near-side impacts. For these occupants, the most common factors contributing to injury were crash severities greater than the IIHS test, inadequate side-airbag performance, and lack of side-airbag coverage for the injured body region. In the cases where an airbag was present but did not prevent the injury, occupants were often exposed to loading centered farther forward on the vehicle than in the IIHS test. Around 40% of the far-side occupants were injured from contact with the struck-side interior structure, and almost all of these cases were more severe than the IIHS test. The remaining far-side occupants were mostly elderly and sustained injury from the center console, instrument panel, or seat belt. In addition, many far-side occupants were likely out of position due to events preceding the side impact and/or being unbelted.

Conclusion: Individual changes to the IIHS side impact test have the potential to reduce the number of serious injuries in real-world crashes. These include impacting the vehicle farther forward (relevant to 28% of all cases studied), greater test severity (17%), the inclusion of far-side occupants (9%), and more restrictive injury criteria (9%). Combinations of these changes could be more effective.     

Analysis of the injury severity of crashes by considering different lighting conditions on two-lane rural roads

IntroductionMany studies have examined different factors contributing to the injury severity of crashes; however, relatively few studies have focused on the crashes by considering the specific effects of lighting conditions. This research investigates lighting condition differences in the injury severity of crashes using 3-year (2009–2011) crash data of two-lane rural roads of the state of Washington.MethodSeparate ordered-probit models were developed to predict the effects of a set of factors expected to influence injury severity in three lighting conditions; daylight, dark, and dark with street lights. A series of likelihood ratio tests were conducted to determine if these lighting condition models were justified.ResultsThe modeling results suggest that injury severity in specific lighting conditions are associated with contributing factors in different ways, and that such differences cannot be uncovered by focusing merely on one aggregate model. Key differences include crash location, speed limit, shoulder width, driver action, and three collision types (head-on, rear-end, and right-side impact collisions).Practical ApplicationsThis paper highlights the importance of deploying street lights at and near intersections (or access points) on two-lane rural roads because injury severity highly increases when crashes occur at these points in dark conditions.     

Investigation of injury severities in single-vehicle crashes in North Carolina using mixed logit models

IntroductionRoadway departure (RwD) crashes, comprising run-off-road (ROR) and cross-median/centerline head-on collisions, are one of the most lethal crash types. According to the FHWA, between 2015 and 2017, an average of 52 percent of motor vehicle traffic fatalities occurred each year due to roadway departure crashes. An avoidance maneuver, inattention or fatigue, or traveling too fast with respect to weather or geometric road conditions are among the most common reasons a driver leaves the travel lane. Roadway and roadside geometric design features such as clear zones play a significant role in whether human error results in a crash. Method: In this paper, we used mixed-logit models to investigate the contributing factors on injury severity of single-vehicle ROR crashes. To that end, we obtained five years' (2010–2014) of crash data related to roadway departures (i.e., overturn and fixed-object crashes) from the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Safety Information System Database. Results: The results indicate that factors such as driver conditions (e.g., age), environmental conditions (e.g., weather conditions), roadway geometric design features (e.g., shoulder width), and vehicle conditions significantly contributed to the severity of ROR crashes. Conclusions: Our results provide valuable information for traffic design and management agencies to improve roadside design policies and implementing appropriately forgiving roadsides for errant vehicles. Practical applications: Our results show that increasing shoulder width and keeping fences at the road can reduce ROR crash severity significantly. Also, increasing road friction by innovative materials and raising awareness campaigns for careful driving at daylight can decrease the ROR crash severity.     

Using event-triggered naturalistic data to examine the prevalence of teen driver distractions in rear-end crashes

IntroductionWhile teen driver distraction is cited as a leading cause of crashes, especially rear-end crashes, little information is available regarding its true prevalence. The majority of distraction studies rely on data derived from police reports, which provide limited information regarding driver distraction.MethodThis study examined over 400 teen driver rear-end crashes captured by in-vehicle event recorders. A secondary data analysis was conducted, paying specific attention to driver behaviors, eyes-off-road time, and response times to lead-vehicle braking.ResultsAmong teens in moderate to severe rear-end crashes, over 75% of drivers were observed engaging in a potentially distracting behavior. The most frequently seen driver behaviors were cell phone use, attending to a location outside the vehicle, and attending to passengers. Drivers using a cell phone had a significantly longer response time than drivers not engaged in any behaviors, while those attending to passengers did not. Additionally, in about 50% of the rear-end crashes where the driver was operating/looking at a phone (e.g., texting), the driver showed no driver response (i.e., braking or steering input) before impact, compared to 10% of crashes where the driver was attending to a passenger.ConclusionsThe high frequency of attending to passengers and use of a cell phone leading up to a crash, compounded with the associated risks, underlines the importance of continued investigation in these areas.Practical applicationsParents and teens must be educated regarding the frequency of and the potential effects of distractions. Additional enforcement may be necessary if Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs are to be effective. Systems that alert distracted teens could also be especially helpful in reducing rear-end collisions.     

Motorcycle active safety systems: Assessment of the function and applicability using a population-based crash data set

Objective: Motorcycles and mopeds, often referred to as powered 2-wheelers (PTWs), play an important role in personal mobility worldwide. Despite their advantages, including low cost, space occupancy, and fuel efficiency, the risk of sustaining serious or fatal injuries is higher than that for occupants of passenger cars. The development of safety systems specific for PTWs represents a potential way to reduce casualties among riders. With the proliferation of new active and passive safety technologies, the question as to which might offer the most value is important. In this context, a prioritization process was applied to a set of PTW active safety systems to evaluate their applicability to crash scenarios alone and in combination. The systems included in the study were antilock braking (ABS), autonomous emergency braking (AEB), collision warning, curve warning, and curve assist.

Methods: With the functional performance of the 5 safety systems established, the relevance of each system to specific crash configurations and vehicle movements defined by a standardized accident classification system used in Victoria, Australia, was rated by 2 independent reviewers, with a third reviewer acting as a moderator where disagreements occurred. Ratings ranged from 1 (definitely not applicable) to 4 (definitely applicable). Using population-based crash data, the number and percentage of crashes that each safety system could potentially influence, or be relevant for, was defined. Applying accepted injury costs permitted the derivation of the societal economic cost of PTW crashes and the potential reductions associated with each safety system given a theoretical crash avoidance effectiveness of 100%.

Results: In the 12-year period 2000–2011, 23,955 PTW riders and 1292 pillion passengers were reported to have been involved in a road crash, with over 500 killed and more than 10,000 seriously injured; only 3.5% of riders/pillion passengers were uninjured. The total economic cost associated with these injured riders and pillion passengers was estimated to be AU$11.1 billion (US$7.70 billion; €6.67 billion). The 5 safety systems, as single solutions or in combination, were relevant to 57% of all crashes and to 74% of riders killed. Antilock braking was found to be relevant to the highest number of crashes, with incremental increases in coverage when combined with other safety systems.

Conclusions: The findings demonstrate that ABS, alone and in combination with other safety systems, has the potential to mitigate or possibly prevent a high percentage of PTW crashes in the considered setting. Other safety systems can influence different crash scenarios and are also recommended. Given the high cost of motorcycle crashes and the increasing number of PTW safety technologies, the proposed approach can be used to inform the process of selection of the most suitable interventions to improve PTW safety.     

Do NHTSA vehicle safety ratings affect side impact crash outcomes?

Introduction: Side impact crash injuries tend to be severe, mainly due to the effects of the mechanism of such crashes. This study addresses the relationship between side impact crash injury severities and side impact safety ratings of the passenger cars involved in such crashes. It is motivated by the lack of research on side impact safety ratings in relation to the real-world crash outcomes. Method: Analysis of Crashworthiness Data System’s (CDS) data show the head and thorax are the most common regions of impact of severe injuries, while the neck is the least. Irrespective of body regions, higher-rated vehicles were found to provide better occupant protection to both younger and older driver age groups. Assessment based on injury severity score (ISS) indicates that higher-rated vehicles have an overall lower average ISS compared to lower-rated vehicles. Results: Ultimately, this study shows that vehicles rated with National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) new criteria had lower average ISS compared to vehicles rated under the old criteria. The 2011 NHTSA side impact rating criteria being relatively new, it has very few crashes to draw meaningful statistically significant conclusions. However, this paper establishes the fact that vehicles with higher star ratings (under experimental conditions) indeed offer increased occupant protection in the field conditions. Practical applications: Previous studies have found that safety was given priority while buying new vehicles. However, people associated vehicle safety with technologies and specific safety features rather than the vehicle’s crash test results or ratings (Koppel, Charlton, Fildes, & Fitzharris, 2008). The results from this study provide a point of reference for safety advocates to educate the drivers about the importance of considering vehicle safety ratings during a vehicle purchase.     

Near crash characteristics among risky drivers using the SHRP2 naturalistic driving study

Problem: Previous research have focused extensively on crashes, however near crashes provide additional data on driver errors leading to critical events as well as evasive maneuvers employed to avoid crashes. The Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study contains extensive data on real world driving and offers a reliable methodology to study near crashes. The current study utilized the SHRP2 database to compare the rate and characteristics associated with near crashes among risky drivers. Methods: A subset from the SHRP2 database consisting of 4,818 near crashes for teen (16–19 yrs), young adult (20–24 yrs), adult (35–54 yrs), and older (70+ yrs) drivers was used. Near crashes were classified into seven incident types: rear-end, road departure, intersection, head-on, side-swipe, pedestrian/cyclist, and animal. Near crash rates, incident type, secondary tasks, and evasive maneuvers were compared across age groups. For rear-end near crashes, near crash severity, max deceleration, and time-to-collision at braking were compared across age. Results: Near crash rates significantly decreased with increasing age (p < 0.05). Young drivers exhibited greater rear-end (p < 0.05) and road departure (p < 0.05) near crashes compared to adult and older drivers. Intersection near crashes were the most common incident type among older drivers. Evasive maneuver type did not significantly vary across age groups. Near crashes exhibited a longer time-to-collision at braking (p < 0.01) compared to crashes. Summary: These data demonstrate increased total near crash rates among young drivers relative to adult and older drivers. Prevalence of specific near crash types also differed across age groups. Timely execution of evasive maneuvers was a distinguishing factor between crashes or near crashes. Practical Applications: These data can be used to develop more targeted driver training programs and help OEMs optimize ADAS to address the most common errors exhibited by risky drivers.