一脚油门何以酿成人间惨剧

<正>3月1日下午3点半左右,一辆红褐色奔驰轿车在深圳宝安机场T3航站楼离港平台突然失控撞向护栏。事发地点是一处车辆行驶通道。车撞护栏,本来应当只是一起普通的剐蹭事故,却因为护栏边聚集了大量看飞机的人群,而酿成了9死23伤的惨祸。司机莽撞、行人大意,固然是造成死伤惨剧的直接原因,但从伤者、目击者、现场救援人员多方反映的情况来看,机场及道路交通管理部门并没有对行人车辆做出及时有效的警示,致使大量行人在车辆专用通道聚集,或许才是惨剧的"祸根"。     

航站楼恐怖袭击情景下疏散过程仿真研究

为应对恐怖袭击的威胁,本文以某大型机场航站楼为环境,应用模拟仿真工具构建刀斧砍杀情景下航站楼内的人员疏散过程模型,分析该情景下人员疏散和伤亡情况;然后利用正交实验对该情景下人员疏散及伤亡的影响因素进行定量对比研究,提取显著的影响因素。实验数据表明,人员数量A、砍杀工具类型B、恐怖分子位置C、恐怖分子数量D4个因素P<0.05,均对被袭击总人数、死亡人数、疏散时间有显著影响;高风险水平组合为A_(3)B_(3)C_(3)D_(1);D、B为关键影响因素。该模型能够展示刀斧砍杀恐怖袭击情景的演变过程,为机场预防及应对该类事件的发生提供改进建议,也为应急预案制定提供数据依据。     

声音

<正>背景:3月1日,深圳宝安机场T3航站楼高架桥转出发大厅约50 m处发生重大交通事故,肇事司机杨某驾驶一辆小轿车与男友吴某一同前往机场乘飞机,当车辆行至机场高架桥离港平台转弯处时突然失控,冲向右侧护栏继续行驶,撞向在护栏边观光的人员。截至3月2日,事故共造成包括肇事司机在内的9人死亡、20余人受伤。据"央视新闻"官方微博报道,与其同车的吴某反映,因后方车辆连续鸣笛致杨某高度紧张,不慎失控撞向护栏并撞上人群。     

基于系统动力学的机场安全运行保障能力模型及发展决策研究

为探究机场安全运行的动态机制,并对其未来发展状态进行预测和分析,以采取合理的决策措施来充分发挥机场的保障能力。通过分析机场安全运行保障能力与机场保障资源、安全投入、区域运输需求的相互影响关系,运用系统动力学方法建立机场安全运行保障能力因果关系图,运用Vensim PLE软件构建了机场安全运行保障能力系统动力学流图,以首都机场运行数据为实例进行仿真模拟分析,定量化得出首都机场安全运行保障能力动态发展规律,模型运行结果基本符合实际情况。预测首都机场2015年机场保障能力基本达到饱和状态,不安全事件率呈线性增加趋势,需要采取措施来提升保障能力。通过进行多次政策模拟,得出跑道系统保障能力的变化对机场运行发展的影响最敏感,航站系统次之。在进行机场安全规划和建设时,要平衡运行投入与安全投入,在注重各个子系统平衡发展的前提下要重点提升跑道系统保障能力,同时得出了最佳投资政策。     

博弈理论在公众聚集场所消防监督管理的应用

建立了公安消防部门和公众聚集场所之间的公共安全管理模型.通过分析该模型,确定公安消防部门对公众聚集场所进行抽检的比例,对公众聚集场所不安全营业的处罚力度,以及抽检比例与处罚力度之间的函数关系.     

近身攻击情景下恐慌情绪对疏散行为的影响研究

为研究近身攻击情景下行人疏散过程，基于恐慌情绪吸收模型、开放性-责任心-外向性-利他性-神经质(Openness-Conscientiousness-Extroversion-Agreeableness-Neuroticism, OCEAN)模型设计该情景下的行人恐慌情绪模型，通过改进传统的社会力模型体现恐慌情绪对行人行为的影响。经仿真验证，基于动态恐慌情绪驱动的行人应急疏散模型——行人恐慌情绪(Personnel Panic Emotion, PPE)-动态行为(Dynamic Behavior, DB)模型能有效体现该情景下行人疏散特征。设计两组对比试验，研究恐慌情绪、防御人员对疏散过程的影响。结果表明：1)考虑恐慌情绪下，疏散时间缩短42 s,被袭击人数减少5人，拥堵点由5处减少为3处，但行人疏散前期出现短时混乱，后期拥堵点的面积、人流密度更大；2)在疏散前期恐慌情绪传播主要受恐怖分子位置影响，全部行人开始疏散后，因拐角和出口处拥堵，恐怖情绪迅速大范围传播；3)防御人员能有效抑制恐慌传播，减轻恐慌情绪对疏散行为的负面影响，进一步提高疏散效率。该研究为此类情景的人员疏散提供了理论依...     

公安部 交通运输部 国家安全监管总局关于近期接连发生群死群伤事故情况的通报

<正>公传发[2015]112号近期,全国接连发生3起群死群伤事故,暴露出许多管理问题。现将有关情况通报如下:2月24日,新疆喀什地区巴楚县尚未通车的施工路段发生一起客车爆胎侧翻的事故,造成22人死亡,38人受伤。经查,肇事客车违规挂靠经营,擅自变更运营线路,沿途非法揽客、超员超速行驶,客运公司动态监控制度不落实;客车轮胎花纹严重磨损、不符合安全技术标准,暴露出源头管理、部门监管和企业主体责任缺失等突出问题。3月1日,广东深圳宝安机场T3航站楼高架桥离港平台转弯处发生一起小轿车撞入路侧观光人群的道路交通事故,造成9人死亡、23人受伤,暴露出机场内部安全风险点排查治理不到位,对高架桥     

某国际机场航站楼离港层大空间的复合排烟方案

某国际机场航站楼的离港层大厅防火分区包括离港大厅和安检边检区,建筑面积近2万平米,最高处净高22米,最低处净高4米,属于复杂的大空间建筑,难以采用全区的机械排烟或自然排烟方案.采用了一种复合排烟方案以保证人员安全疏散和灭火救援,即在离港大厅内自然排烟,在安检边检区机械排烟,在离港大厅和安检边检区之间的大开口处设置挡烟垂壁,防止烟气相互蔓延.两个区域的排烟系统各自独立控制,但可以在排烟时通过大开口为相邻区域提供自然补风.此外还在安检边检区设置快速响应喷头来控制火灾热释放速率.该排烟方案充分利用了空问特点,有利于烟气控制和人员安全疏散.最后通过计算机数值模拟验证了该方案的合理性和有效性.     

景区密集人群踩踏事故情景分析

为提高景区密集人群应急管控能力,采用情景分析和动态贝叶斯网络相结合的方法,研究景区密集人群踩踏事故情景演化过程。通过分析景区密集人群踩踏事故,选取情景状态、致灾体、承灾体、驱动要素为关键要素,探索密集人群踩踏事故情景演化的特征与路径;运用动态贝叶斯网络构建密集人群踩踏事故情景网络,从情景状态概率推演情景发展趋势。结果表明:引起事故发生风险概率较高的情景状态依次为人群跌倒、人群僵持、人群流量剧增和人群聚集;预防准备不充分、景区安保管理不足、人流监测设备和人群限流设施不完善等相应驱动要素的介入是造成事故发生的主要原因。     

视野受限时出口指示标志对行人疏散的作用研究

为完善视野受限时的行人疏散理论,探讨了出口指示标志在行人疏散中的作用和其他影响疏散的因素。在前人工作的基础上,进一步阐述了视野受限时的疏散理论模型,统计估算了行人的疏散时间;并利用计算机仿真对比研究了出口指示标志在行人疏散过程中的作用。结果表明,出口指示标志能够明显地影响行人疏散过程中的动力学特征,避免了无出口指示标志时的盲目和绕行现象,优化了行人疏散路径,提高了疏散效率。同时发现,在不同出口宽度下大的视野距离会对疏散起积极作用;初始行人密度较小时,行人数量的变化对疏散时间影响不大;初始行人密度较大时,疏散时间与行人数量间呈线性关系。     

考虑行为特征的人群疏散模拟研究*

为研究聚集活动中的行人在移动过程中所表现出的行为特征对人群整体移动过程的影响,通过实验观察与计算机仿真模拟的方法对人员移动进行研究。通过对实验视频的观察分析,在CTM模型基础上建立考虑人员跟随行为与保持距离行为特性的移动模型,并在简单无障碍和复杂多障碍的场景进行仿真实验。结果表明:模型能有效地描述行人的运动特征,而且拥挤程度和行人间排斥作用越大时行人移动越慢,整个疏散过程花费时间越长;障碍物的存在会影响人群在出口处的“成拱现象”,对理解人员的运动规律和防止拥挤踩踏事故具有一定理论和现实意义。     

外界风下机场航站楼自然排烟模式的数值模拟研究

机场航站楼通常采用顶窗和多侧高侧窗作为自然排烟窗,当发生火灾时,其开窗模式对自然排烟效果有一定的影响。以某机场航站楼为例,考虑出发大厅顶窗及多侧高侧窗的启闭状态组合,设置7种开窗模式。通过FDS软件模拟,研究外界风下,开窗模式与火源功率对航站楼到达危险时间的影响。在只打开顶窗的模式下,到达危险时间t与火源功率Q均满足关系式:t=x_0+A/(1+10^(bQ-c)),其中x_0、b、c随着风速的增大而减小,A随着风速的增大而增大。考虑到人员安全疏散,航站楼出发大厅火源功率应控制在6 MW以内。若火源功率大于6 MW,当外界风速小于等于5m/s时,应采用打开所有高侧窗和顶窗的开窗模式;当外界风速大于5m/s时,烟气会倒灌进入航站楼,影响人员安全疏散,此时应采取关闭迎风侧高侧窗,打开顶窗和其他侧高侧窗的开窗模式。     

The relationship between the implementation of a Safety Management System and the attitudes of employees towards unsafe acts in aviation

Airports represent highly complex organisations, incorporating such interdependent operations as airlines, ground transport, flight services, ground services, refueling, maintenance, customer services, catering, administration and security. Airports, and especially International Airports, must ensure that their operations are conducted in a safe and efficient manner, as the consequence of any error or failure during operations has the potential for catastrophic outcomes. The international governing body for air transportation, ICAO, requires that airports must implement a Safety Management System as a means of ensuring safe operations and eliminating or reducing the likelihood of low frequency/high consequence incidents. This research project sought to determine the extent to which the implementation of a Safety Management System (SMS) influenced the attitudes of airport employees toward unsafe acts. The hypothesis tested was that the implementation of an SMS into an airport will result in an improvement in attitudes toward safety. A Safety Culture Survey was utilized to measure these attitudes. Two International Airports were chosen to measure the extent to which the introduction of an SMS at one airport would influence the safety attitude and culture of those employees. Sharjah International Airport, UAE, was used as the experimental group, as it did not have a formal SMS in operation, with another English-speaking International Airport (the Second Airport) being used as a control group, as it already had an SMS in operation. A Safety Culture Survey was used as the pre and post-test measure over a 12-month period to determine the extent of influence of the introduction of the SMS at Sharjah Airport. The results of Phase 1 of the survey (June 2008) were compared against the results of Phase 2 of the survey (June 2009). The average score reported by participants at Sharjah Airport increased significantly from pre-test measure to post-test measure in relation to communication, safety rules, supportive environment, personal risk appreciation, work environment, and involvement. At the same time, the average score for personal priorities decreased significantly from Phases 1 to 2. Results indicate that participants at Sharjah Airport recorded a significant positive shift in attitude to the safety factors covered in the Safety Culture Survey, whilst at the same time responses from the Second Airport showed no such shift in attitude. The Second Airport showed neither decline nor improvement in responses. Whilst some methodological issues were identified, the results were of sufficient strength as to conclude that the outcomes reported support the hypothesis that the introduction of an SMS at Sharjah Airport has effected positive changes not observed at the Second Airport. Recommendations for ongoing research were made to further explore the strength of relationship between SMS and safety attitudes, as well as the relationship between safe attitude and safe behaviour.     

The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part II. Accident location analysis and airport risk assessment case studies

This two-part paper presents the development of an improved airport risk assessment methodology aimed at assessing risks related to aircraft accidents at and in the vicinity of airports and managing Airport Safety Areas (ASAs) as a risk mitigation measure. The improved methodology is more quantitative, risk-sensitive, flexible and transparent than standard risk assessment approaches. As such, it contributes to the implementation of Safety Management Systems at airports, as stipulated by the International Civil Aviation Organisation.The second part of the paper presents the analysis of accident locations, including the plotting of Complementary Cumulative Probability Distributions for the relevant accident types. These were then used in conjunction with the improved accident frequency models to produce Complementary Cumulative Frequency Distributions that could be used to assess risks related to specific runways and determine Airport Safety Area (ASA) dimensions necessary to meet a quantitative target level of safety. The approach not only takes into account risk factors previously ignored by standard risk assessments but also considers the operational and traffic characteristics of the runway concerned. The use of the improved risk assessment technique and risk management strategy using ASAs was also demonstrated in two case studies based on New York LaGuardia Airport and Boca Raton Airport in Florida.     

The impact of airport characteristics on airport surface accidents and incidents

IntroductionAirport surface safety and in particular runway and taxiway safety is acknowledged globally as one of aviation's greatest challenges. To improve this key area of aviation safety, it is necessary to identify and understand the causal and contributing factors on safety occurrences. While the contribution of human factors, operations, and procedures has been researched extensively, the impact of the airport and its associated characteristics itself has received little or no attention.MethodThis paper introduces a novel methodology for risk and hazard assessment of airport surface operations, and models the relationships between airport characteristics, and (a) the rate of occurrences, (b) the severity of occurrences, and (c) the causal factors underlying occurrences.ResultsThe results show for the first time how the characteristics of airports, and in particular its infrastructure and operations, influence the safety of surface operations.     

Creating Pedestrian Crash Scenarios in a Driving Simulator Environment

Objective: In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 NHTSA. Traffic Safety Facts 2012 Pedestrians. Washington, DC: Author; 2014. DOT HS 811 888. [Google Scholar]). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track.

Methods: An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20–30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area.

Results: Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to adjust time to arrival triggers for the pedestrian actions. This article discusses the rationale behind creating the simulator scenarios and some of the procedural considerations for conducting this type of research.

Conclusions: Crash analyses can be used to construct test scenarios for driver behavior evaluations using driving simulators. By considering trajectories, roadway, and environmental conditions of real-world crashes, representative virtual scenarios can serve as safe test beds for advanced driver assistance systems. The results of such research can be used to inform pedestrian crash avoidance/mitigation systems by identifying driver error, driver response time, and driver response choice (i.e., steering vs. braking).     

Towards automatic and robust adjustment of human behavioral parameters in a pedestrian stream model to measured data

People die or get injured at mass events when the crowd gets out of control. Urbanization and the increasing popularity of mass events, from soccer games to religious celebrations, enforce this trend. Thus, there is a strong need to better control crowd behavior. Here, simulation of pedestrian streams can be very helpful: Simulations allow a user to run through a number of scenarios in a critical situation and thereby to investigate adequate measures to improve security. In order to make realistic, reliable predictions, a model must be able to reproduce the data known from experiments quantitatively. Therefore, automatic and fast calibration methods are needed that can easily adapt model parameters to different scenarios. Also, the model must be robust. Small changes or measurement errors in the crucial input parameters must not lead to disproportionally large changes in the simulation outcome and thus potentially useless results. In this paper we present two methods to automatically calibrate pedestrian simulations to the socio-cultural parameters captured through measured fundamental diagrams. We then introduce a concept of robustness to compare the two methods. In particular, we propose a quantitative estimation of parameter quality and a method of parameter selection based on a criterion for robustness. We discuss the results of our test scenarios and, based on our experience, propose further steps.     

Airport privatisation and safety: Does ownership type affect safety?

In the summer of 2004, the Dutch cabinet decided on the privatisation of the largest airport in the Netherlands—Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (AAS). Privatisation processes have generated policy questions which have focused on assuring that public values such as safety at airports remains at levels that are considered sufficient after privatisation takes place.In this article, an attempt is made to assess the effects of the proposed privatisation on the management of safety on and around the airport. As little empirical evidence exists about the potential effects of privatisation of airport operators on the safety of air transportation, the research used a ‘worst-case scenario analysis’ to assess potential effects of a (partial) privatisation of the airport operator. Based upon a detailed investigation of a number of activities performed by the airport operator and a comparative analysis of safety regulatory systems of two other European (partly) privatised airports, we conclude that the level of safety at the airport is not directly affected as a result of the (partial) privatisation of the airport operator, but that compared to the situation in which the airport operator remains a public entity, the safety regulatory system as a whole has become less robust.     

开放空间复杂地形人员疏散模拟研究

为研究开放空间复杂地形条件下人员疏散,开发出能够模拟行人疏散的三维可视化软件系统。将复杂多变的地形分解为一系列连续变化的坡面,分析斜坡上行人受力,考虑重力影响,在经典社会力模型的基础上,提出一个改进模型。选择某气井周边居民疏散案例,运用VC++和OpenGL图形库技术初步完成整合数字高程模型(DEM)、道路网络和行人特征的三维社会力人员疏散模拟程序。最后通过实例模拟,可以明显地观察到人群的动态疏散过程以及在灾难中的拥堵行为、转向躲避行为和超越行为。应用该模型,能够实现复杂地形人员疏散三维动态模拟,并快速预测疏散时间。