基于DEMATEL/ISM的地下商业街火灾风险影响因素研究

为研究某地下商业街火灾风险影响因素，针对该地下商业街火灾的复杂性和特殊性，建立了包括人员、设备、环境、管理等4个大类下的16个影响因素的火灾风险影响因素指标体系，运用DEMATEL方法分析影响火灾风险的关键因素，并结合ISM方法建立影响因素多层次递阶解释结构模型。结果表明：火灾风险由多种影响因素耦合而成，消防人员工作能力、地下建筑结构复杂度、消防资金投入大小和消防安全规程的执行力度是影响地下商业街火灾的关键因素。     

煤矿安全生产中人的行为影响因子系统动力学(SD)仿真分析

在构建影响人的安全行为因素因果关系的基础上,运用系统动力学(SD)理论和方法,对影响人的安全行为关键因素进行动态预测,并通过仿真计算、对比分析安全投入增加对系统安全水平的影响。应用该方法建立的煤矿生产中人的安全行为指标水平模型,以求证安全投入与人的安全行为水平的相关性,为煤矿安全管理决策提供一种新的思路,亦有助于政府和煤矿企业科学地明确安全投入方向,降低人因事故率,提高煤矿生产的安全水平。     

水利工程高危作业人因评价体系中的认知图理论研究

为加强水利工程施工安全管理和预防事故发生,通过建立认知地图对高危作业中的人为因素进行了分析。在修订的人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)对高危作业人为因素进行识别的基础上,通过引入认知地图理论,建立了人为因素的因果认知地图并进行头节点、尾节点和中心性分析;提出认知广度和认知深度概念,通过数理统计各人为因素出现的频数和采用G1法求其各因素权重,建立二维平面认知地图,对事故的关键影响因素进行了识别和分析。结果表明:教育培训、作业环境和人员健康状况是导致高危作业事故最核心因素,该方法能有效对水利工程人为因素进行分析研究,具有一定适用性。     

A systemic methodology for risk management in healthcare sector

The recent biomedical, technological, and normative changes have led healthcare organizations to the implementation of clinical governance as a way to ensure the best quality of care in an increasingly complex environment. Risk management is one of the most relevant aspects of clinical governance and approaches put forward in literature highlight the necessity to perform comprehensive analyses intended to uncover root causes of adverse events.Contributing to this field, the present paper applies Reason’s theory of failures to work out a systemic methodology to study risks impacting not only directly but also indirectly on patients. Also, the steps of such approach are organized around Human Reliability Assessment phases, in order to take into account the human component of healthcare systems. This framework is able to foster effective decision making about reducing failures and waste and to improve healthcare organizations’ maturity towards risk management.The developed methodology is applied to the pharmacy department of a large Italian hospital. An extensive validation in different healthcare settings is required to fully prove benefits and limitations.     

基于人因失误分析的医院电气安全管理研究

医院是重点用电单位,用电的安全性和供电可靠性都比较高,但因不可抗力、供电系统故障、医院管理问题、人为失误等方面的原因,仍存在发生各类电气突发事件的风险。其中,由人的误操作或不安全行为因素而诱发的电气方面的突发事件已成为医院非医疗事故的主要原因。文章针对医院电气安全操作方面的人因失误,从个人和组织两个角度进行了失误原因的分析,认为人的失误既受个体因素的影响,也受环境、制度和管理水平的影响。在此基础上,提出完善相关规章制度建设、加强教育与培训等,从组织制度建设、人员技术素质提高等方面,提出预防与减少人因失误的措施与方法,提高供配电质量,为医院医疗工作提供有效的电气安全后勤保障。     

安全人因工程中的心理因素

心理因素在人因工程和系统安全管理中的作用越来越被人因专家所重视.总结了在安全人因工程中需考虑的人的心理因素,探讨了心理因素与行为的关系,心理与人的可靠性,以及心理因素在系统安全管理中的应用.     

人为失误原因分析与控制对策研究

研究了人为失误对系统安全的影响，分析了人为失误产生的原因及其影响因素，并就煤矿安全管理中人为失误的控制提出了针对性措施     

基于非结构模糊决策的中国药品安全管理体系研究

基于安全管理理论和中国药品管理实践,通过专家意见和社会调查,确定中国药品安全管理的要素和决策标准;运用非结构模糊决策方法确定中国药品安全管理中各重要要素的权重,从而探索中国药品安全管理体系;对体系的不同要素进行排序。研究表明:影响中国药品安全管理的主要要素有,安全交易、许可制度、药品利润率、可追溯体系、药物警戒、应急管理;决策标准是,成本、经济水平、硬件条件、从业人员素质、消费者观念;重要性排序是,可追溯体系、许可制度、药物警戒、应急管理、安全交易、药品利润率。药品安全管理体系的建立和要素排序为政府监管提供了科学依据。     

人因失误的机理及其可靠性研究

随着科技的发展 ,在系统安全中 ,机器设备可靠性越来越高 ,由于人本身的复杂性 ,人因失误变得愈来愈严重。本文基于人行为的原理 ,对人因失误的机理、影响人失误的因素、人行为的模型和失误模型及其可靠性的量化进行了分析 ,建立了计算人可靠性的威布尔分布模型 ,并对其参数进行了讨论 ,可用此来评价人的可靠性。     

一种航空装备系统中本质安全人的构建方法

据统计,各种事故因素中人为失误占80%,为提高航空装备系统的服役安全性,需要在其使用管理中构建本质安全人.在对本质安全人进行定义并分析构建必要性后,提出了航空装备系统本质安全人的构建方法,建立了人员安全行为控制模型,最后指出本质安全人可靠性增长与本质安全人的构建有着共同的努力方向.对于航空装备系统服役安全性的提高有一定...     

Leading indicators of system safety – Monitoring and driving the organizational safety potential

An indicator can be considered any measure – quantitative or qualitative – that seeks to produce information on an issue of interest. Safety indicators can play a key role in providing information on organizational performance, motivating people to work on safety and increasing organizational potential for safety. We will describe the challenges of monitoring and driving system safety. Currently, the same lead indicators are used – explicitly or implicitly – for both purposes. The fact that the selection and use of safety performance indicators is always based on a certain understanding (a model) of the sociotechnical system and safety is often forgotten. We present a theoretical framework for utilizing safety performance indicators in safety–critical organizations that incorporates three types of safety performance indicators – outcome, monitor and drive indicators. We provide examples of each type of indicator and discuss the application of the framework in organizational safety management. We argue that outcome indicators are lag indicators since outcomes always follow something; they are the consequences arising from multiple other situational and contextual factors. Monitor and drive indicators are lead indicators. The main function of the drive indicators is to direct the sociotechnical activity in the organization by motivating certain safety-related activities. Monitor indicators provide a view on the dynamics of the organization: the practices, abilities, skills and motivation of the personnel – the organizational potential for safety. We conclude that organizations should better acknowledge the significance of monitor and drive indicators in safety management.     

Safety barriers: Research advances and new thoughts on theory,engineering and management

Safety barriers include physical and non-physical means in different industries for preventing the occurrences of hazardous events and mitigating the consequences in case they have occurred. After clarifying the relevant terminologies, this article reviews the literature in the domain of safety barriers in the recent decade, and categorizes these studies into barrier theory, barrier engineering and barrier management. Classifications of barriers, performance measures, modeling approaches and data-driven analysis for safety barriers are reviewed as parts of barrier theories. In the engineering section, the research advances are presented in accordance with design for reliability and safety, test and maintenance strategies, responses to dependent failures, and diagnosis and prognosis of degradations. Then, project and process management, human and organizational factors, and standardization and compliance management of safety barriers are summarized. Based on the review of literature, research perspectives on safety barriers for resilience, digital safety, security of barriers, utilizing data, and dealing with intelligence, are highlighted and potential challenges are mentioned. This study is therefore expected to be beneficial to the researchers of system and safety engineering, with systematically streamlining and innovatively categorizing the recent findings and insights.     

Risk assessment of safety level in university laboratories using questionnaire and Bayesian network

Accidents in university laboratories not only create a great threat to students’ safety but bring significant negative social impact. This paper investigates the university laboratory safety in China using questionnaire and Bayesian network (BN) analysis. Sixteen influencing factors for building the Bayesian net were firstly identified. A questionnaire was distributed to graduate students at 60 universities in China to acquire the probability of safe/unsafe conditions for sixteen influencing factors, based on which the conditional probability of four key factors (human, equipment and material, environment, and management) was calculated using the fuzzy triangular theory and expert judgment. The determined conditional probability was used to develop a Bayesian network model for the risk analysis of university laboratory safety and identification of the main reasons behind the accidents. Questionnaire results showed that management problems are prominent due to insufficient safety education training and weak management level of management personnel. The calculated unsafe state probability was found to be 65.2%. In the BN analysis, the human factor was found to play the most important role, followed by equipment and material factor. Sensitive and inferential analysis showed that the most sensitive factors are personnel incorrect operation, illegal operation, and experiment equipment failure. Based on the analysis, countermeasures were proposed to improve the safe management and operation of university laboratories.     

Measuring safety culture in healthcare: A case for accurate diagnosis

Recent concern regarding the safety of patients in Western healthcare systems has resulted in the adoption of safety management techniques used in high-risk industries. One such method is the use of safety climate questionnaries to survey workforce perceptions and attitudes towards both worker and patient safety in healthcare organizations. Many of the earliest healthcare safety climate measures did not appear to meet accepted psychometric standards. The theoretical foundation of the relationship between perceptions of safety climate and workers’ behaviour is not well specified in this literature and a model derived from industry research is proposed.     

基于系统动力学的高校消防安全管理研究

为识别高校消防安全管理的影响因素,有效预防高校火灾事故,本文结合实际案例和调研情况,建立高校消防安全管理系统动力学模型,仿真分析不同消防安全投入比例对高校消防安全管理水平的提升效果和影响趋势。结果表明:高校消防安全管理系统中采用平均分配的投入方案并不理想,且侧重单一分支的投入方案不能有效提升高校整体消防安全管理水平;与之相对应的,采取分散却有所侧重的投入策略是高校消防安全管理投入的最佳选择,消防管理及检查、设备维保更新和消防宣传教育是高校消防安全管理的重点需求与亟需方向;构建的高校消防安全管理系统动力学模型符合实际,能够识别高校消防安全管理中各要素间的相互作用和影响机制,并能有效预测高校消防安全管理水平的变化趋势。     

Leading indicators of safety in virtual organizations

A primary purpose in measuring safety is to develop intervention strategies to avoid future accidents. Recognizing signals before an accident occurs offers the potential for improving safety, and many organizations have sought to develop programs to identify and benefit from alerts, signals and prior indicators. In this paper, we address the challenge of identifying and evaluating leading indicators of safety in virtual organizations–organizations comprised of multiple, distributed members, temporarily linked together for competitive advantage, that share common value chains and business processes supported by distributed information technology. We begin by discussing risk propensity in virtual organizations and leading indicators of safety. We then describe a pilot study to identify leading indicators for one safety-critical system, and use the results of that study and the literature just described to propose an approach to developing leading indicators in virtual organizations.     

基于云模型的城轨信号系统安全保障能力评价方法*

为准确评价城轨信号系统安全保障能力及影响因素,基于云理论对定性与定量因素的良好融合优点,构建城轨信号系统安全保障能力评价云模型及评价指标体系,采用组合赋权法对各指标赋予权重,并基于专家意见,利用正向云发生器生成标准云。结果表明:该云模型具有一定稳定性和可靠性,可对城轨信号系统安全保障能力进行有效测评,同时能够发现安全运营中的缺陷,有助于协助管理方进行针对性改善,以提高城轨信号系统的安全保障能力。     

Issues of the Human Reliability Analysis in the Context of Probabilistic Safety Studies

This article addresses methodological issues of the human reliability analysis (HRA) in the context of probabilistic safety studies. Several conventional HRA techniques, more often used for the evaluation of the human error probabilities (HEPs), have been classified. A taxonomy of human actions, failure events, and related factors is outlined in order to distinguish action phases, human behavior types and incorrect outputs (errors of omission or commission), error types (slips, lapses, and mistakes), and performance-shaping factors (PSFs) influencing the human performance. A tree is proposed to facilitate the selection of a specific method for the evaluation of human reliability with regard to attributes of the situation analyzed. A software system based on the expert system technology to facilitate and document PSA and HRA is outlined. At the end of the article some research challenges in the domain are discussed.     

The typology for allocations of societal risk and safety management tasks at the local governmental level – Framing the current directions in Sweden

The starting point for this article is the need to develop empirical insights about contemporary societal risk and safety management practice and executive structures. In order to facilitate insights about societal risk and safety management in a Scandinavian welfare context we use Sweden and its local governmental level (municipal) as an empirical frame in this paper. The aim for this article is to analyse how a variety of risk and safety management tasks are divided within the Swedish municipalities. The objectives are to frame the current directions for internal allocations of risk and safety issues by providing an empirically based executive typology and to contemplate the implications and future research needs that arise from that management pattern.The analysis is based on statistical analysis of information from a web-survey with chief officials (n = 1283) with responsibilities for different municipal functions and sectors. In this study the responses to one of the survey questions are used for statistical analysis. The analyzed question focused on the degree that the respondents estimated that their administrative sector or function handled a selection of risk and safety management assignments (n = 45). A factor analysis was applied to identify patterns in the dataset. The analysis resulted in an eight factor solution with a high degree of explained variance (74.3%). The results provide an elementary contribution to the understanding of the current societal risks and safety management directions.