我国安全生产的经济学分析及对策研究(连登二)

我国政府一贯高度重视安全生产,全国安全生产状况总体趋于好转,事故起数和死亡人数增幅有所下降。但当前形势仍十分严峻,安全生产事故数量和事故死亡人数总量仍居高不下,重特大事故时有发生。从2001年—2003年,全国共发生一次死亡10人以上的特大事故397起,平均2.76天一起;发生一次死亡30人以上的特别重大事故42起,平均26天一起：发生一次死亡100人以上的事故3起,伤亡惨重,损失巨大。     

2002-2014年我国煤矿重特大事故特征及发生规律研究

为了研究我国煤矿重特大事故的一般规律,分析了2002-2014年我国煤矿发生的421起重特大事故,得到我国煤矿重特大事故的基本特征.利用统计分析法从地域、类型、所有制3个维度综合分析了421起煤矿重特大事故.结果表明:山西、贵州、河南、黑龙江和湖南5个省份的重特大事故起数和死亡人数分别占全国总数的56.1％和56.8％,是我国需重点监管和治理的省份,并对山西、河南和黑龙江3省重特大事故频发的原因进行了分析;瓦斯事故和水害事故的发生起数及死亡人数占比分别为83.3％和86.3％,是需要重点防治的事故类型;国有重点煤矿重特大事故平均每起死亡人数为29.87,且近两年重特大事故起数和死亡人数均大幅度上升,是需要重点防范的对象;乡镇煤矿重特大事故起数及死亡人数下降速度均较快,但事故起数和死亡人数仍较多,是国家重点监控、治理的对象.     

八闽动态

2005年1-3月全省安全生产基本情况1-3月,全省安全生产形势保持平稳态势,各类事故死亡人数和重特大事故同比均有所下降。主要特点如下:1、各类事故死亡人数两位数下降。1-3月全省各类事故9048起,同比减少528起,下降5.5%;死亡1293人,同比减少143人,下降10%;受伤7283人,同比增加673人,上升10.2%;经济损失5165万元,同比减少1770万元,下降25.     

基于F-N曲线的煤矿重特大瓦斯爆炸事故伤亡规律研究

为研究煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的伤亡规律,以2000-2014年发生的230起重大及以上瓦 斯爆炸事故为样本,运用统计学和F-N曲线法对事故特征进行了研究。首先,对事故起 数和伤亡情况的时间特征进行了统计;其次,对事故起数和伤亡数量的地域性特征进行 了研究;最后,基于F-N曲线法,对事故的死亡人数和受伤人数进行了规律分析。研究 结果表明:15年间的瓦斯爆炸事故起数总体上呈逐年下降的趋势,但在2005年出现了峰 值,死亡人数与事故起数的变化趋势接近,受伤人数变化趋势不太明显;重特大瓦斯爆 炸事故主要发生在中部和西南地区,且尤以山西省最为显著,其事故起数和伤亡人数都 是最多的;大多数事故造成了10～30人的死亡,其累计概率曲线在对数坐标中的梯度是 -1.642,受伤人数最频繁的区间是1～10人,其累计概率曲线在对数坐标中的梯度是- 0.652。     

建预警系统 让风险可控

<正>近年来,我国安全生产工作成效明显,全国事故总量和死亡人数始终保持"双下降"趋势。然而,当前企业安全生产基础薄弱、安全保障能力不高等突出问题仍普遍存在,以2015年为例,全国平均每10天左右发生1起重特大事故的频率仍让人难以容忍。     

要闻

国家经贸委就遏制煤矿重特大事故发出紧急通知本刊讯１０月２８日,国家经贸委就遏制煤矿重特大事故发出紧急通知。通知指出：今年１０月以来,全国煤矿企业安全生产形势十分严峻,重特大伤亡事故频繁发生。据统计,１０月份全国煤矿共发生一次死亡１０人以上事故６起、死...     

焦点

<正>春节全国各行业(领域)未发生重特大事故春节期间(2月9日～15日),全国各行业(领域)未发生重特大事故,发生较大事故9起,死亡和下落不明38人,同比减少7起、17人,分别下降43.8%和30.9%。而煤矿等工矿商贸领域未发生较大事故。全国道路交通事故造成的死亡人数、受伤人数与去年     

找差距抓落实

正2019年上半年,全国安全生产形势总体平稳,各类生产安全事故起数和死亡人数同比分别下降19.8%和18.9%,较大事故起数和死亡人数同比分别下降13.9%和18.3%,实现了生产安全事故起数、重大事故、较大事故全面下降。但是,安全生产形势依然稳中有忧,重特大事故尚未得到有效遏制,重大险情时有发生,如不是救援高效得当,后果不堪设想。8月1日,应急管理部发布近10年8月份重特大事故统计,分析到:每年的8月是重特大事故发生相     

风物长宜放眼量——安全生产形势与近中期演变趋势考量

作者在对60多年来,尤其是近30年生产安全事故数据统计分析基础上,探讨了我国生产安全事故演变规律并对包括"十二五"期间在内的近中期发展趋势做了初步预测。作者认为虽然2010年上半年重大事故发生频率较高,但仍在"正常"波动范围内,生产安全事故总体风险继续保持下降态势。应用时间动态序列方法对2010-2020年生产事故死亡人数、职工十万人死亡率和特大事故发生频度3项指标做了预测分析,结果显示:死亡人数量总体仍呈波动下降,虽然"十二五"期间内可能出现小幅波动,但超出2003年峰值可能性较小,2015年后则可能明显持续下降;职工十万人死亡率十年内继续保持稳定下降,出现较大波动的可能性很小;2010年可能成为近几年特大事故发生频度较高年份,2011年内会有所下降,此后5-10年之内还有再次出现反复风险,但总体保持在8起以下,峰值超出2005年几率很小,特大事故间隔天数的曲线拟合回归分析显示,近中期重特大事故在某一时段频度集中发生的几率仍然较高,对此应保持警惕。作者认为,应急准备欠缺,救援能力不足和应急管理系统存在明显脆弱性是重特大事故频发与伤亡后果严重主要原因之一。安全生产政策干预时效分析表明:近年来,政策时效干预度持续加强是安全生产形势逐渐稳定好转基本原因之一,但格兰杰因果检验结果提示重特大事故频度变化是政策时效干预力度增减的格兰杰原因,即表现为被动性干预,明显缺乏前瞻性和计划性。作者建议,我国安全生产宏观管理应逐步实现由被动的事故推动型向主动的目标拉动型的战略性转变。     

探索中国特色的安全生产理论——访新疆塔里木油田安全生产独立研究员简新

正近年来,全国安全生产形势继续保持稳定好转,事故总量、死亡人数、重特大事故持续下降。但安全生产形势依然严峻复杂,事故总量仍然较大,重特大生产安全事故接二连三发生。从政府到企业,从专家学者到安全管理人员,都在探索研究,寻找好的方法促进安全生产工作,尤其是遏制重特大事故发生。"一花独放不是春",来自新疆塔里木油田的安全生产独立研     

Global estimates of occupational accidents

Information of occupational accidents is not standardized worldwide. Especially, developing countries do not have reliable information on their occupational accidents due to lack of proper recording and notification systems. The number of accidents is under-reported but figures are still used as a baseline for occupational safety work. In this paper global estimates of occupational accidents are presented for 175 countries. These estimates are based on figures from selected countries in eight different regions. Global estimates help to compare different countries and regions to each other to detect improvements in safety and safety work. In 1998 the average estimated number of fatal occupational accidents was 350 000 and there were 264 million non-fatal accidents. Global estimates are needed to guide national policies and decision-making.     

Updating the economic cost of large-scale industrial accidents: Application to the historical analysis of accidents

This paper analyses the feasibility of applying different update rates of industrial prices to the economic assessments of accidents with special emphasis on those related to the chemical process industry. The advantages and disadvantages of applying this technique to the historical analysis of accidents are analysed and compared with the results obtained with the five most widely used indexes. The results of a general analysis of the historical evolution of the cost of accidents recorded in two prestigious databases are also presented. Valid data are obtained for decision-making with regard to insurance premiums, revaluation of assets and risk management (administration, safety management of large chemical complexes).     

Role of gender in road accidents

Influence of driver sex on road accidents is assessed in this article. Accident records for 3 years and for three different income regions were analyzed. Annual distance traveled, social and economic participation, and effect of public vehicle accidents were considered. Effects of environmental factors and driver age were also included. Driver faults analysis identified possible reasons for accident differences. Analysis of accident severity was used to assess degree of harm. Statistical analysis at the 5% significance level was used to evaluate all differences. The results show that male accident rates are significantly higher. This trend is consistent through all the analyses. Accident differences are significant only in normal driving conditions. Drivers over age 50 had the lowest accident rates. Accident rate differences were caused by lack of attention and impatience among male drivers. Appropriate means of communication should alert concerned populations to these findings.     

煤矿事故发生的机理与控制对策

目前,我国煤炭行业的重大特大伤亡事故不断发生,已严重波及到国民经济的发展和社会的稳定.本文运用系统工程学理论,分析并找出了煤矿伤亡事故不断发生的原因,乃至恶性循环的机理,并提出了预防及控制对策.     

减少道路交通事故的措施

据统计资料,我国目前汽车保有量近1200万辆,且每年以15%左右的幅度增长,农用机动车及摩托车等轻型机动车的数量已超过2000万辆.机动车总量的增加既带动了运输业的发展和提高了人们工作与生活的方便程度,但也相应的造成了道路交通事故的不断发生,给国家财产和人们生命带来巨大损失.     

Historical analysis of accidents in seaports

A study has been carried out of accidents occurring in seaports. A total of 471 accidents occurring between the beginning of the twentieth century and October 2002 have been analysed. The results obtained show a significant increase in the frequency of accidents over time: 83% of the accidents occurred in the last 20 years and 59% in the past decade. The most frequent accidents were releases (51%), followed by fires (29%), explosions (17%) and gas clouds (3%). More than half the accidents occurred during transport: loading/unloading operations, storage and process plants also make a large contribution to the total. The various causes of the accidents have also been analysed, as have the type of substance involved and the consequences for the population (number of people killed, injured and evacuated). Finally, some conclusions are drawn concerning the need to improve certain safety measures in ports.     

A study of storage tank accidents

This paper reviews 242 accidents of storage tanks that occurred in industrial facilities over last 40 years. Fishbone Diagram is applied to analyze the causes that lead to accidents. Corrective actions are also provided to help operating engineers handling similar situations in the future. The results show that 74% of accidents occurred in petroleum refineries, oil terminals or storage. Fire and explosion account for 85% of the accidents. There were 80 accidents (33%) caused by lightning and 72 (30%) caused by human errors including poor operations and maintenance. Other causes were equipment failure, sabotage, crack and rupture, leak and line rupture, static electricity, open flames etc. Most of those accidents would have been avoided if good engineering have been practiced.     

关于遏制煤矿事故的思考

由于党和政府的高度重视,全社会关注,并采取了一系列重大措施,我国安全生产和职业健康取得一定成效,全国安全生产总体稳定并向好的趋势发展.但安全生产形势依然严峻.主要是近一个时期,特大事故还没有得到有效遏制,煤矿特大瓦斯事故多发,给人民群众生命财产造成巨大损失,给社会造成恶劣影响.     

Tire blow-outs and motorway accidents

During the period from 1996 to 2002, 60,397 vehicles were involved in crashes with property damage and/or injury on a French motorway network of 2000 km. It was observed that 6.7% of these accidents involved tire blow-outs. In 87% of cases, only one vehicle was involved in the accident. Tire blow-outs occurred in 6.5% of cars that represented more than 80% of the vehicles involved in crashes. The occurrence of this phenomenon is very high for vans (22%), though it concerns trucks less (2.5%). The proportion of tire blow-outs decreased from 1997, when it was 8.0%, to 5.9% in 2002. However, two main facts require examination: (1) On inter-urban motorways, crashes involving blow-outs of rear tires occur four times more frequently than for blow-outs of front tires. (2) The frequency of tire blow-outs is especially high for vans, and almost always involves rear tires. This higher frequency for rear tires is the result of two phenomena, which are indistinguishable given the data available: firstly, a four-wheel vehicle is more difficult to control if a blow-out occurs on a rear tire (confirmed experimentally); secondly, rear tires may be in poor condition more often than front tires, and so more prone to blow-outs. Consequently, users are strongly recommended to install the best tires on rear wheels. In practice, if only the front tires are replaced, which often occurs because they tend to be worn out more quickly than the rear ones (especially for front wheel drive vehicles), it is necessary to move the rear tires to the front and fit the new ones on the rear wheels. Very interesting technological developments are in progress that should reduce the number of tire blow-outs. However, considering the time necessary to renew the number of cars on the roads, this very simple and inexpensive recommendation should apply to all cars and especially to vans.