Risk assessment of antagonistic hazards

This paper considers the risk to major hazard plant from terrorists deliberately causing catastrophic industrial accidents. The United States of America Department of Justice [Assessment of the increased risk of terrorist or other criminal activity associated with posting off-site consequence analysis information on the internet, 2000] reports that “breaching a containment vessel of an industrial facility with an explosive or otherwise causing a chemical release may appear relatively simple to…a terrorist”. They concluded that the risk of such action is “real and credible”.

Analysis of terrorism is often hampered by its being described as ‘irrational’; one corollary would be that it is unpredictable. However, terrorism may usefully be treated as a rational behaviour and in doing so it becomes possible to assess the risks it causes.

We analyse the vulnerability of major hazard plant to terrorist attack and identify nine factors (access, security, visibility, opacity, secondary hazard, robustness, law enforcement response, victim profile, and political value) that might be used as a starting point for more formal risk assessment and management.     

A criterion for developing credible accident scenarios for risk assessment

Maximum credible accident analysis is one of the most widely used concepts in risk assessment of chemical process industries. Central to this concept is the aspect of ‘credibility’ of envisaged accident scenarios. However, thus far the term credibility is mostly treated qualitatively, based on the subjective judgement of the concerned analysts. This causes wide variation in the results of the studies conducted on the same industrial unit by different analysts.

This paper presents an attempt to develop a criterion using which credible accident scenarios may be identified from among a large number of possibilities. The credible scenarios thus identified may then be processed for detailed consequence analysis. This would help in reducing the cost of the analysis and prevent undue emphasis on less credible scenarios at the expense of more credible ones.     

Some experiences in hazard identification and risk shortlisting

‘Rapid ranking’ has been used for many years as a method of determining the priority which should be given to formal investigation of the wide range of hazards and risks present on major process industry sites. Such methods tend to evolve to meet the needs of specific applications. Some historical and recent applications are outlined, and the nature of the developments which they led to are discussed. Particular topics discussed include: development of the method such that it is usable by operating managers rather than specialists; use to raise risk consciousness; adaptation for use as an aid to hazard identification; use to define both which risks should be studied and which risks, even if low, should be incorporated in routine monitoring and periodic auditing programmes; use as a basis for comparison of the relative risks presented by a variety of different industrial installations; use for a range of different types of risk; and extension beyond ranking to include ‘shortlisting’ i.e. deciding which risks to include in a study programme and which to leave out. Philosophical difficulties with the approach are discussed, including the danger of omitting from detailed study a risk which is erroneously shown as low, and the uncertainty of the absolute level of the ranked risks. Approaches to minimizing these problems are discussed.     

Risk assessment and land-use planning regulations in France following the AZF disaster

After the disaster of AZF plant in Toulouse on 21 September 2001 (31 people killed, 3000 injured and 3 billion dollars of damage), France adopted a new law relative to safety reports and land-use planning on 30 July 2003. This law asks for the investigation of all representative scenarios and the assessment of their probabilities to demonstrate the acceptable level of safety of an industrial facility. Therefore significant changes were introduced in the way of doing risk analysis in France and some difficulties were found for the implementation of a probabilistic approach.This paper presents the new approach of risk analysis established by the French Ministry of the Environment, and particularly focuses on:? the benefits and limits of the semi-quantitative probabilistic assessment method;? the benefits and difficulties to use a quantitative probabilistic assessment method;? some learning from the risk analysis approaches carried out in the nuclear industry;? some discussion about the national matrix to appreciate the gravity of human consequences from an accident outside facilities.     

Measuring safety climate: identifying the common features

In UK industry, particularly in the energy sector, there has been a movement away from ‘lagging’ measures of safety based on retrospective data, such as lost time accidents and incidents, towards ‘leading’ or predictive assessments of the safety climate of the organisation or worksite. A number of different instruments have been developed by industrial psychologists for this purpose, resulting in a proliferation of scales with distinct developmental histories. Reviewing the methods and results from a sample of industrial surveys, the thematic basis of 18 scales used to assess safety climate is examined. This suggests that the most typically assessed dimensions relate to management (72% of studies), the safety system (67%), and risk (67%), in addition themes relating to work pressure and competence appear in a third of the studies.     

Occupational health and safety in the framework of corporate social responsibility

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has been defined as the voluntary integration of social and environmental concerns into the firm’s decision-making. The search for a good Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) environment and the promotion of a culture of risk prevention are two of the firm’s main social responsibilities, and consequently an integral part of CSR. This paper discusses how the growing interest in corporate social responsibility can contribute to improving the implementation of adequate systems of prevention. For this purpose, we study to what extent OHS issues are present in the field of CSR, and consequently determine which aspects have received the most attention, and which are less well developed; we offer some proposals as well. The methodology followed is a content analysis of the main international CSR management tools.     

A quantitative risk assessment tool for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tool has been developed by TNO for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard. As a first step an industrial plant is divided into groups of modules, defined by their size, shape, and constructional properties. Then the relevant explosion scenarios are determined, together with their frequency of occurrence. These include scenarios in which one module participates, as well as domino scenarios. The frequency is partly based on casuistry.

A typical burning velocity is determined depending on the ignition type, the dust properties and the local conditions for flame acceleration. The resulting pressure development is predicted with the ‘thin flame model’. Module failure occurs when the explosion load exceeds thresholds, which are derived from single degree of freedom (SDOF) calculations for various types of modules. A model has been developed to predict the process of pressure venting after module failure and the related motion of launched module parts.

The blast effects of the primary explosion are based on results from calculations with BLAST3D. The blast and flame effects of the secondary external explosion due to venting are calculated using existing models. The throw of fragments and debris is quantified with a recently developed model. This model is based on trajectory calculations and gives the impact densities, velocities, and angles as output. Furthermore the outflow of bulk material is taken into account. The consequences for external objects and human beings are calculated using existing models. Finally the risk contours and the Societal risk (FN curve) are calculated, which can be compared to regulations.     

Road safety in France: The hard path toward science-based policy

Very considerable advances have been made in road safety over the long term and especially in the recent years. This improvement was achieved in part due to the effectiveness of French decision-making system, even if it remained very perfectible. An analysis of the road safety management system is carried out in order to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the organisation of road safety in France.The organisation of road safety in France is extremely centralised. The basis of road safety policy at the national level rests on an extensive information system (covering accidents, risk exposure, speed, utilisation of mobile phones) and on analyses of road risk (the risks attributable to alcohol, speed and the use of mobile phones).This statistical information and these risk models are integrated in risk management tools such as monitoring, ranking and policing. Monitoring makes it possible to track the development of road safety, bench-marking to compare the performance of the country’s different departments with each other, and policy making to refine the details of a policy.The development of the governance of road risk is leading managers and decision-makers to perfect data-gathering procedures, standardise and simplify the analytical tools used, and broaden the range of risks covered.     

A quantitative risk management framework for dust and hybrid mixture explosions

Dust and hybrid-mixture explosions continue to occur in industrial processes that handle fine powders and flammable gases. Considerable research is therefore conducted throughout the world with the objective of both preventing the occurrence and mitigating the consequences of such events. In the current work, research has been undertaken to help move the field of dust explosion prevention and mitigation from its current emphasis on hazards (with an accompanying reliance on primarily engineered safety features) to a focus on risk (with an accompanying reliance on hierarchical, risk-based, decision-making tools). Employing the principles of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of dust and hybrid-mixture explosions, a methodological framework for the management of these risks has been developed.The QRA framework is based on hazard identification via credible accident scenarios for dust explosions, followed by probabilistic fault-tree analysis (using Relex – Reliability Excellence – software) and consequence severity analysis (using DESC – Dust Explosion Simulation Code – software). Identification of risk reduction measures in the framework is accomplished in a hierarchical manner by considering inherent safety measures, passive and active engineered devices, and procedural measures (in that order). An industrial case study is presented to show how inherent safety measures such as dust minimization and dust/process moderation can be helpful in reducing dust and hybrid-mixture explosion consequences in a 400-m³ polyethylene storage silo.     

大型公用建筑项目安全风险“致因-承担”模型

在大型公用建筑项目实施过程中,项目各利益相关者往往片面注重自己对安全风险后果的承担责任和对策研究,忽视对项目总体安全风险的系统分析。其实,不同利益相关者给项目带来的安全风险及对安全风险的后果承担有着高度关联、相互依存的特点。本文借鉴投入产出理论解决问题的思路,建立了安全风险"致因-承担"模型,通过安全风险"致因-承担"分析表对利益相关者的安全风险致因与安全风险承担进行了量化分析,确定了各利益相关者的安全风险"致因-承担"差额,并应用安全风险玫瑰图对评价结果进行了直观的表达和分析,提出了决策者针对不同利益相关者所采取的安全风险管理重点。安全风险"致因-承担"模型为平衡各部门的利益、解决纷争提供了一种行之有效的定量研究技术工具,是对投入产出分析应用领域拓展的一种新尝试。     

Bhopal gas tragedy: scientific challenges and lessons for future

Some of the challenges of BGT were answered by two multi-disciplinary projects of the ICMR on Pathology and Toxicology and Pathophysiology. Unlike other chemical disasters, the aerosol inhaled by the Bhopal victims contained a mixture of MIC and its trimers and dimers, as well as aqueous and thermal decomposition products, including HCN. A coordinated GC–MS study of the blood and autopsy tissues and chemicals in the Tank residue confirmed their role.

Autopsy studies revealed the pathological changes in the acute, sub-acute and chronic phases progressive changes of pulmonary edema and bronchiolitis, followed by chronic pulmonary fibrosis. Cerebral edema resulted in ‘acute histotoxic anoxia’. Intensive experimental studies with the help of newer tools of molecular biology might throw more light on the underlying mechanisms and newer therapeutic approaches.

The initial finding of cherry-red discoloration of lungs led to a suspicion of cyanide toxicity. Eventually, elevated blood and tissue cyanide levels confirmed the prompt therapeutic response to NaTS and accompanying increase of urinary NaSCN excretion. However, periodic clinical recurrences and relapses pointing towards ‘chronic cyanide toxicity’ remained enigmatic.

Specific changes the 2–3 DPG levels and Blood Gases were explained on the basis of N-carbamoylation of end-terminal valine residues of Hb. Soon, several other end-terminal -amino groups of tissue proteins were also found to be N-carbamoylated. Had the attempts at demonstrate S-carbamoylation of glutathione and other SH radicals of tissue enzymes like rhodanese succeeded, perhaps the underlying mechanism of chronic cyanide toxicity due to MIC might have been resolved.

Based on the practical lessons learnt in Bhopal, an attempt will be made to present the salient pathological and toxicological findings, followed by a brief outline of the principles of planned laboratory management for alleviation of human suffering from future chemical disasters.     

Numerical simulation of the large-scale malignant environmental pollution incident

With the development of economy, the expansion in industrial production resulted in the increase in the number of malignant environmental pollution incidents. The dispersion of toxic gaseous materials was chosen for study in detail, which took the ‘12.23’ Kaixian blowout accident in Chongqing as an example. This paper firstly reviewed the ‘12.23’ Kaixian blowout accident. Then, the physical boundary conditions including initial conditions were outlined to form an integrated mathematical problem. Thirdly, the blowout accident was simulated for a period of 5 h. In term of criteria for acute poisoning, simulation results were analyzed using the concentration slices that can serve for the decision-making. Finally, based on the analysis of simulation result, four important conclusions were put forward that can be used for the design of emergency evacuation routes.     

金融风险的原因及防范对策研究

分析我国金融制度中的缺陷和不足与面临的金融风险,指出金融机构在经营过程中,由于宏观经济政策的变化、市场波动、金融机构经营管理不善等诸多原因,存在着资金、财产和信誉等遭受损失的可能性,介绍巴塞尔银行有效监管的核心原则将金融风险划分为8种类型,包括信用风险、市场风险、操作风险、法律风险等;系统研讨我国金融风险产生的原因,提出防范和化解金融风险的十种措施。研究的结论,对切实预防和逐步化解金融风险具有现实意义和重要参考价值。     

信息不对称下的金融风险机理研究

利用信息不对称理论对市场交易中的道德风险和逆向选择进行了解释。对国家同商业银行及中介机构的信息不对称,商业银行同工商企业的信息不对称,国家金融机构信息获取方面存在的困难的原因进行了分析。研究了由于信息不对称利率、汇率、管理及决策在金融行业的风险,以及操作过程中,贷款对象选择,对中小企业贷款的风险。只要充分重视金融风险,采取得当的防范对策,风险是可以防范的。     

Carbon capture and storage-desirability from a risk management point of view

Environmental and safety risks related to carbon capture and storage concern leakages and accidental releases during transport and geological storage. Based on principles widely accepted in the EU and beyond in the discussion about the where’s and why’s of nuclear waste repositories, this paper discusses the desirability of carbon capture and storage from a risk management point of view, focusing on environmental risks on the global level (climate change). On this basis it is concluded that, if the key energy issue of coming generations, not just in Europe but all around the world, is not the abundance of fossil resources but rather an unacceptably high probability of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, then the solution should not include any massive hiding of the emissions but entirely focus on the avoidance based on improved technology in power plants and other industrial installations.     

顺酐生产火灾爆炸危险性分析与评价

在分析顺酐生产过程中火灾爆炸危险因素的基础上,运用美国道化学公司的火灾、爆炸危险指数评价方法对顺酐生产装置进行安全性评价。针对其实际运转情况,对其中氧化反应器单元从一般工艺危险性、特殊工艺危险性和安全补偿措施等方面进行了系统分析,并提出了预防事故的安全对策措施,为苯酐的安全生产和管理提供了切实可行的参考。     

风险管理决策方法探讨

分析了影响企业风险管理决策的主要因素,如生存风险度、决策者的风险态度、决策方案的风险度及期望值;进而研究如何将主要因素有机结合并作为风险管理决策的准则,得出风险管理决策时应依次将生存风险度、决策者的风险态度、决策方案的风险度及期望值作为决策依据的论断;通过例证说明具体的风险管理决策过程。结果表明:笔者所研究出的风险管理决策准则与方法能为企业风险管理者提供指导和借鉴。     

On the implementation of an International Curriculum on Hydrogen Safety Engineering into higher education

This paper describes the implementation of an International Curriculum on Hydrogen Safety Engineering into higher education. The curriculum is being developed as part of the educational and training activities of the European Network of Excellence Safety of Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier (HySafe) and has been implemented into a 1-year Postgraduate Certificate Course in Hydrogen Safety Engineering by the University of Ulster. The course is taught in the distance learning mode and comprises of two 30 CATS-point modules, namely, ‘Principles of Hydrogen Safety’ and ‘Applied Hydrogen Safety’. The first delivery of this course began in January 2007 and the second delivery will commence in September 2007.     

Bhopal and its effects on the Canadian regulatory framework

Instead of legislating after the Bhopal accident, Canada choose to innovate by adopting a consultative approach. In 1987, Environment Canada set up the Major Industrial Accidents Council of Canada (MIACC), a non profit organization financed by the federal and provincial governments and industry.

MIACC was a process rather than a structure. Governments, industries, responders, trade unions, NGOs, etc. have shared their expertise. It has worked as a partnership for the development of standards, guidance documents, etc. in prevention, preparedness, response and recovery.

MIACC ceased to exist in 1999. Although, MIACC disappearance is unfortunate, it is not dramatic. A culture of partnership, of working together towards common objectives, is now well in place and influences the development of regulations.

Natural disasters and the 911 terrorist attack on New York triggered the publication of regulations.

The legislative process started in 2001 with the Province of Quebec adopting a new Civil Protection Act for the protection of persons and property against disasters.

Year 2003 saw major developments in the regulation of emergencies—changes that are likely to have significant influences on how companies operate in Canada. Surprisingly, however, these changes have received little attention in the media, and many companies may not be aware of their implications.

This paper will review these developments, and will examine what has already taken place. Topics include:

• The federal regulation of environmental emergencies under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act;

• Extension of the Criminal Code of Canada to allow criminal charges and possibly heavy penalties for senior officials and corporations, including an explicit legal duty to protect workers from harm;

• Quebec Civil Protection Act designed to identify and manage risks;

• Ontario‘s stepwise regulation of municipal emergency preparedness with the intended goal of NFPA 1600 compliance by 2007, and the implications for the process industries;

• Potential regulation at the municipal level.

Towards a European energy risks monitor to consistently map safety and security risks of different energy infrastructures

After mapping of current European Union regulations on the management of accident risks related to natural hazards and different industrial activities, this paper discusses insights from past and current European Commission initiatives on harmonisation of assessment and management of safety risks. The problem of safety comparison and risk/benefit communication is of critical importance for sustainable decision making. For the specific case of the energy sector, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) and DG TREN (Directorate General for Transport and Energy) have recently started two connected initiatives, called energy risks monitor (ERMON) and safety and security of energy infrastructures in a comparative view (SEIF-CV). While ERMON deals with the development of a methodology and corresponding web-based information system to cross-compare in a consistent way safety, risk and reliability performances of different energy systems (fossil, nuclear, renewables) across their specific fuel cycle chains, SEIF-CV creates a corresponding network of stakeholders in the energy sector as well as the necessary review and user panels for ERMON. Objectives and status of ERMON and SEIF-CV are described.