识别灾害风险 掌握减灾技能

"防灾减灾日"的由来中国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一,灾害种类多、分布地域广、发生频率高、造成损失重。在全球气候变化和中国经济社会快速发展的背景下,中国面临的自然灾害形势严峻复杂,灾害风险进一步加剧,灾害损失日趋严重。2008年5月12日,四川汶川发生里氏8.0级特大地震。这场新中国成立     

每年5月12日为“防灾减灾日”

经国务院批准，自2009年起，每年5月12目为“防灾减灾日”。 我国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一，灾害种类多、分布地域广、发生频率高、造成损失重。在全球气候变化和我国经济社会快速发展的背景下，我国面临的自然灾害形势严峻复杂，灾害风险进一步加剧。国家设立“防灾减灾日”，既体现了国家对防灾减灾工作的高度重视，也是落实科学发展观，     

自然爆炸灾害的危害及其预防方法探讨

本文对两种自然爆炸灾害——天体对地球的撞击和空间碎片对航天器的撞击进行了分析，指出了这种自然灾害发生的概率及危害特性，探讨了预防灾害的可能方案。     

“512”防灾减灾日

正我国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一,灾害种类多、分布地域广、发生频率高、造成损失重。在全球气候变化和我国经济社会快速发展的背景下,近年来,我国自然灾害损失不断增加,重大自然灾害乃至巨灾时有发生,我国面临的自然灾害形势严峻复杂,灾害风险进一步加剧。2008年5月12日,四川汶川发生里氏8.0级特大地震。这场大地震给全国人民带来了巨大的心理压力和难以愈合的心灵创伤,堪称国家和民族史上的重大灾难。为表达对灾害遇难者的追思,增强全民忧患意识,提高防灾     

关注气象灾害

正大气对人类的经济建设及国防建设等造成的直接或间接损害,称为气象灾害,它是自然灾害中的原生灾害之一。气象灾害在自然灾害中出现次数最多,发生范围最广.危害面最大,造成的损失最严重。联合国的有关报告指出,过去十年全球发生的气象灾害,导致30多万人丧生,造成经济损失超过8000亿美元。我国幅员辽阔,气候、地质务件复杂,是世界上气象灾害最严重的国家之一。台风、暴雨、雷电、洪涝、干旱、大风、冰雹、大雾、沙尘暴、高温热浪、低温冻害、雾霾等气象灾害时有发生.气象灾害占我国自然灾害的71%以上.每年气象灾害要造成国民经济数千亿元的损失.约占国内生产总值的3%-6%。     

自然灾害风险评价初步研究

自然灾害风险评价是减灾研究的重要组成部分，可为风险区土地的合理利用与投资、灾害预防与管理、灾害保险制度的建立以及灾期的快速评估和辅助决策提供科学依据。本文在分析自然灾害风险评价发展历史的基础上，提出了自然灾害风险评价不仅应包括自然灾害发生的可能性，而且还应包括由此而引起的可能的后果的风险分析概念，并且探讨了将自然灾害与风险区价值及抗灾性能作为整体进行风险评价的理论和方法。     

国外洪灾防治略览

洪灾是威胁人类生存的十大自然灾害之一。据联合国资料统计:洪水灾害发生次数占全部自然灾害发生次数的32%,造成的经济损失和人员死亡数分别占全部自然灾害造成经济损失和人员死亡数的31%和55%。,全球洪涝灾害主要发生在多台风暴雨的地区。这些地区主要包括:孟加拉北部及沿海地区;中国东南沿海;日本和东南亚国家;加勒比海地区和美国东部近海岸地区。我国洪水灾害发生之频繁,造成的灾害损失之严重是有目共睹的。因此,借鉴国外防治经验,探索适合国情的防洪对策十分必要。     

自然灾害中的流行病学问题

世界上没有一个地方能避免干旱、洪水、飓风、暴风雪、地震等自然灾害的影响。自然灾害由于能造成灾区居民伤亡、疾病和精神创伤,因此,也是一个重大的公共卫生问题。自然灾害发生频繁,据全球统计,需要国际救援的自然灾害几乎每周都有发生。一年须支付的国际救灾款项达10亿美元。美国本世纪70年代就发生了13093次灾害,使7169人死亡和     

我国自然灾害损失补偿机制研究

伴随全球的气候变暖、社会财富的不断增加,以及人口的膨胀,人类将面临日益严峻的灾害损失问题.我国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的少数几个国家之一,同时我国的灾害补偿方式与手段较为单一和落后,构建科学的灾害补偿机制与模式是我国经济与社会协调发展的重大课题.从理论和实证上讨论了自然灾害及其效应,并比较了国家灾害补偿机制、市场风险转移和分摊机制,以及政府和市场相结合的混合机制及其特点.研究结论表明我国应该建立政府诱导型的自然灾害补偿机制.     

世界银行筹划一项减轻发展中国家灾害的国际活动

在最近 10 a里 ,自然灾害和工业技术发展引起的灾害事件迅猛增加。这些灾害事件造成的经济损失令人难以承受 ,而对发展中国家而言 ,自然灾害往往会使其国内的经济陷入崩溃。面对这一问题 ,世界银行目前正在加紧筹划一项防御协作计划 ,一项由各国政府机构、国际组织、科研院所、私营企业、全体公民以及所有热衷于减灾事业的团体的全球合作组织 ,以帮助发展中国家减轻灾害风险 ,使防灾减灾成为发展计划中不可缺少的一部分。发展中国家遭受自然灾害的损失最多 ,而他们没有足够的能力去应付灾害。按国民经济总产值的比例计算 ,自然灾害给发展中…     

减灾事业的发展和综合减灾

中国减灾事业的发展史可分3个阶段:第一阶段是新中国成立以前的几千年,减灾活动以赈灾为主,帝王“祭天求恕”,“防灾吏制”,安抚于民。清末民初1800至1949年间计发生巨灾25起,死亡4993万余人,总灾亡则近亿,年均灾亡60万人以上,这段惨痛的灾况记下了十分难得的灾情史,泣血于残野。新中国成立后,在“为人民服务”的思想指导下,为减轻灾害损失,逐步建立了气象、水利、农林、地震、海洋、地质等专业的灾害科技与减灾工程,政府并组织社会兼事抗灾、救灾、应急减灾,国家减灾实力快速增长,已取得突出减灾实效,这个阶段比第一阶段灾亡人数下降了90%以上,但年均灾亡人口仍有1.2万人左右。该阶段的工作特点是以单灾种纵向体系为主,不同灾类的监测、预报水平尚高低不一,这与成灾机理的难易程度和工作条件的强弱有关。21世纪初,随全球增温之势锐升,多类极端灾变遍及各洲,促使许多国家发动全社会人众共同探求“综合减灾”之路;我国政府已迅即开展全社会应急减灾行动,开启了“综合减灾”之先声,这是减灾事业步入第三阶段的先导。综合减灾应该是全社会相关部门和民众的统一行动。目前尚有3个问题需要弄清楚,一是多种自然灾害之间成灾机理相关性的研究,其对象是灾害群与灾害链;二是全社会减灾要素综合运作预案的优选;三是如何核算减灾投入与社会可持续发展之正、负效应关系。     

Local government,political decentralisation and resilience to natural hazard-associated disasters

Natural hazards affect development and can cause significant and long-term suffering for those affected. Research has shown that sustained long-term disaster preparedness combined with appropriate response and recovery are needed to deliver effective risk reductions. However, as the newly agreed Sendai framework recognises, this knowledge has not been translated into action. This research aims to contribute to our understanding of how to deliver longer term and sustained risk reduction by evaluating the role of political decentralisation in disaster outcomes. Specifically, we investigate whether countries which devolve power to the local level experience reduced numbers of people affected by storms and earthquakes, and have lower economic damage. Using regression analysis and cross-country data from 1950 to 2006, we find that, in relation to both storms and earthquakes, greater transfers of political power to subnational tiers of government reduce hazard impacts on the population. The downside is that more politically decentralised countries, which are usually wealthier countries, can increase the direct economic losses associated with a natural hazard impact after the storm or earthquake than those which are more centralised. However, overall, it seems advantageous to give subnational governments more authority and autonomy in storm and earthquake risk planning.     

Mapping cultural vulnerability in volcanic regions: The practical application of social volcanology at Mt Merapi,Indonesia

Protecting at-risk communities from geological hazards requires both knowledge of the physical hazard and an understanding of the community at risk. Interdisciplinary disaster research therefore explores the interface between hazards and society in order to improve disaster risk reduction strategies. At this interface there exist disaster sub-cultures that are produced through hazard experience and can be developed as a coping mechanism for the at-risk communities. Therefore, disaster sub-cultures could contribute to either social resilience or vulnerability. The fluid nature of the term culture and the difficulty in quantifying these important human traits mean that the local sub-cultures are complex and often not included within conventional risk management tools such as risk maps. However, this paper demonstrates how a disaster sub-culture found at Mt Merapi volcano, Indonesia, can be examined using interdisciplinary methods. The distinctive Mt Merapi sub-culture influences local community actions during the frequent eruptions. The findings from ethnographic studies completed on Mt Merapi in 2007 and 2009 have been translated and mapped in order to be incorporated within a holistic risk assessment. The key findings, methods of translation and maps are presented here, and demonstrate the potential for interdisciplinary research applications in disaster risk reduction.     

Disaster risk,social vulnerability,and economic development

This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate‐related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally‐occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT), 1 representing country‐year‐level observations over the period 1980–2007. The study finds that low‐income countries are significantly more at risk of climate‐related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.     

海平面上升的灾害效应及其研究现状

海平面上升是全球变暖和沿海地区人类活动加剧的必然结果,海平面上升加剧了沿海灾害,威胁着沿海地区社会经济的持续发展.文章分析了海平面上升引起的风暴潮加剧、海岸侵蚀、潮滩湿地减少、涵闸废弃、洪涝灾害加剧、海堤破坏、海水入侵等灾害效应及研究现状,提出当前海平面上升灾害效应研究中存在的问题及今后的研究重点.     

Foreignness as a constraint on learning: The impact of migrants on disaster resilience in small islands

Knowledge about natural hazard management has increased significantly since Gilbert White's seminal research in 1945, yet people are still badly affected by natural hazards. A key question remains in natural hazards research: why, when all the conditions for effective disaster risk reduction are in place, do some people not take action to reduce their risk of harm? Through a questionnaire-based study we investigated the motivating factors that led residents of the Cayman Islands to prepare for annual tropical cyclones (hurricanes). Factors that increase the likelihood of individuals preparing for hurricanes are: previous experience of major storms, having linking networks and ties, having a child under the age of 15 in the home, and residency status—expatriate residents are less likely to prepare. Factors that appear to prevent adaptive behaviour include: living close to or adjacent to the coast, recent migration to the islands, and living in rented accommodation. The findings of the survey confirm that even within societies that are well prepared for tropical cyclones, there are still sub-groups who do not engage with the preparedness process. In the case of the Cayman Islands, new migrants are the most vulnerable to tropical cyclones as they tend to fall into the demographic groups least likely to prepare for cyclones, live in locations with high levels of exposure to cyclone impacts, and interact mostly with other expatriates with no previous experience of cyclone impacts. As climate change promises to bring an increasing intensity of tropical cyclones, these findings have relevance for all islands which draw on migrant workers to support economic growth.     

Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change

Abstract

This paper sets out an examination of natural disaster amongst small island developing states (SIDS), and presents a framework for assessing the interaction of global pressures and local dynamics in the production of human vulnerability. Change at the global level is found to be a source of new opportunities as well as constraints on building local resilience to natural disaster. Much depends on the orientation of the state in global economic and political systems. The United Nations is a key global actor with relevance to shaping vulnerabilityin island states, and the impact of the UN Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction is reviewed. It is concluded that this is a critical time for SIDS which must contend with ongoing developmental pressures in addition to growing pressures from risks associated with global environmental change and economic liberalisation that threaten their physical and economic security.     

A policymaking perspective on disaster risk reduction in Mozambique

Academics and practitioners alike emphasise that public policy plays a key role to support efforts to reduce disaster risks and to buffer the impacts of natural hazards when they occur. This involves developing public policies to promote disaster risk reduction (DRR). However, the public policy dimension has only recently begun to receive attention in empirical research on DRR. Processes of policy change are discussed, yet less often studied, and more empirical research is needed to advance the understanding of the conditions for DRR policy change. Combining insights from adaptation research and public policy theory, this study investigates the long-term development of DRR policy in Mozambique as perceived by multiple stakeholders. The study identifies barriers and enabling factors influencing the DRR policy process over time. Using data from 37 semi-structured interviews, the study finds six main enabling factors supporting DRR policy change. Among the most important enabling factors are past disasters and broad stakeholder involvement. The study also unveils several barriers to DRR policy change, including resource insufficiency and lack of coordination among stakeholders. The study concludes with suggestions for integrating DRR and policy process research and lessons for policymaking in support of DRR over time.     

台湾的人口,震害与防震减灾问题

众所周知,台湾是西太平洋弧形列岛中的一环,是我国也是全球地震的高发地带。对于地震,同其它自然灾害一样,应重在预防。增加生产和减灾防灾是社会经济建设问题的两个方面,二者相辅相成,缺一不可.因此,本文结合台湾现今的人口密度、经济发展等情况,讨论了台湾的减轻地震灾害问题,希望能引起台湾方面的重视。     

Integrating disaster risk reduction in national development planning: experience and challenges of Jamaica

It is generally recognised by the disaster risk management and development communities that disasters have a negative impact on development, and indeed can set back development by years. This realisation led to a new paradigm for the management of hazards and their impacts, namely an integrated approach which emphasises disaster risk reduction being incorporated into national development planning. Awareness, however, does not necessarily translate into implementation. ‘Reduce the underlying risk factors’, Priority for Action 4 of The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, reported the lowest average score for progress of the five priority areas. Challenges to progress, as reported by Governments included inappropriate development practices, high levels of poverty and other factors which increase vulnerability. Various authors have recognised the difficulty of consistently and successfully integrating disaster risk reduction into development planning. This integration is particularly challenging for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) which face high exposure to hazards, vulnerable populations and limited resources, often both human and financial. The efforts of Jamaica, a Caribbean SIDS, at integrating disaster risk reduction into national development, and some factors which proved to be important in making progress are presented here. This retrospective paper is written from the perspective of a participant observer and traces developments in disaster risk management over three decades, 1980–2010. Integration and inclusiveness, use of quantitative methods and application of risk assessments are identified as being important in gaining acceptance for disaster risk reduction.