中国东北地区玉米低温冷害风险评估研究

概述了东北玉米生长发育对低温环境的反应，分析了玉米冷害致灾的因素、机理及指标。用变异系数、概率分布函数等方法分析了玉米冷害风险的地域分布，对玉米冷害经济损失风险进行了讨论。结果表明，东北北部、东部冷害风险较大，中、西、南部较小，严重冷害年东北区玉米损失达600多万t，折合人民币60多亿元。     

农业气象灾害风险评估体系及模型研究

从灾害风险分析的角度构建了一个由我国北方冬小麦干旱、江淮冬小麦渍涝、东北作物夏季低温冷害以及华南荔枝和香蕉冬季寒害组合的灾害风险评估体系.该体系由风险辨识、风险估算和风险评价组成.风险辨识分别阐明了上述各灾种的孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体的灾情特征.在风险评估方面,基于灾害性质、灾损和抗灾性能的含义,提出了相应的风险概念模型,根据多年产量资料和气象资料,提出了应用性强、可操作的各种灾害的灾害强度风险概率模拟模式和灾损风险概率模拟模式、抗灾性能模式,并采用逐年产量和气象资料的样本序列,由上述模拟模式估算了各种灾害强度和不同灾损发生的风险概率及风险指数,阐述了风险水平的地区差异.在风险评价方面,根据对各种灾损的风险指标进行综合,分别提出了风险区划指标,并进行了风险区域划分.     

东北区低温冷害风险评估及区划

从变异系数、正态分布风险概率、风险指数三方面对东北区热量条件的稳定性和低温冷害的风险进行了讨论和评估;并将上述三种风险指标极差化,以求取低温冷害的综合风险指数,最后以综合风险指数为指标,并参考变异系数、正态分布风险概率、风险指数,给出了东北区低温冷害风险区划。     

河北省日光温室低温寡照灾害风险分析

利用河北省国家基准气象站的资料，根据日光温室低温寡照灾害指标，计算了各站出现日照时数≤3h的风险概率和日光温室低温寡照灾害的风险指数，并将两者标准化，得出了河北省日光温室低温寡照灾害综合风险的指数。结果表明：河北省日光温室低温寡照灾害综合风险最大的地区为邯郸的中部，石家庄、邢台两市的中部和邯郸大部次之，第三为保定、石家庄两市的东部和衡水中南部及其以南地区，其它地区则无风险。结合现有日光温室蔬菜生产分布情况，指出河北省大部分地区日光温室分布比较合理，南部的部分日光温室发展区域则需进一步优化。     

基于综合赋权分析的东北水稻低温冷害风险评估及区划研究

农业气象灾害风险评估与区划对农业防灾减灾对策的制定意义重大。以东北三省为研究区,利用日均温、水稻生长发育期、产量和面积数据对水稻冷害风险中的致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性及损失度三要素进行了多指标分析。结合熵值法与层次分析法综合计算指标权重,应用加权综合评价法构建了东北水稻冷害风险综合评估模型。结果表明,冷害风险综合评估指标与典型冷害年水稻单产平均减产率在0.01水平下极显著相关,冷害综合风险等级区划与历史任意冷害发生频率分布大体一致。因此,对冷害风险综合评估模型及区划所做的研究具有合理性,可为防灾减灾提供科学合理的依据。     

黑龙江省近年低温冷害特征再探

采用以生长季5-9月平均温度和的距平值作为低温冷害指标的方法,利用黑龙江省79个站点1971-2006年生长季气温及纬度、海拔高度等资料,计算了各站点的一般低温冷害指示值和严重低温冷害指示值,并分析了黑龙江省低温冷害的分布特征.分析结果显示:黑龙江省1971年以来的36a中出现大范围低温冷害9次;发生低温冷害的频率由南向北逐渐增加,大部地区在20%～40%之间;低温冷害主要出现在20世纪70年代、80年代和90年代前期,90年代中期以后的10a中,农区基本没有出现低温冷害.     

GIS在水稻“寒露风”冷害监测预警中的应用

水稻低温冷害是广西的主要农业气象灾害,低温冷害的实时监测预警对农业趋利避害和减轻灾害损失十分重要。依托GIS技术和统计学方法,利用1∶25万的经度、纬度、海拔高度等广西基础地理信息数据,按照1 km×1 km的较高空间分辨率,对低温冷害的相关气象数据进行细网格空间分析推算,结合广西水稻生长发育状况和"寒露风"低温冷害受害指标,实现对广西水稻冷害发生发展及其强度、范围的实时监测预警,并以2010年10月上中旬冷害过程为例检验了监测效果,与冷害实际情况比较相符。     

GIS支持下的广西早稻春季冷害区划研究

利用广西省90个气象台站1961-2006年气候资料和站点地理信息,建立了早稻冷害指标的空间分析模型;依托GIS软件平台,利用1:25万广西基础地理背景数据,按照1km×1km细网格推算出早稻冷害指标的空间分布;运用GIS技术划分出广西早稻低温冷害中无冷害、轻度冷害、中度冷害和严重冷害的4个区域的分区结果,并对区划结果进行了评述和建议.     

福建农业气象灾害的产量灾损风险评估

针对传统的灾损评价中趋势产量和气象产量难以区分的缺点,利用福建省1981-2005年主要气象灾害面积资料,通过计算灾害造成的粮食减产量,得到各灾害相对灾损量序列,并引入信息扩散理论的模糊数学方法,构建了福建农业气象灾害产量灾损风险评估模型,进行了相应的风险评价实例分析.结果表明,福建省农业气象灾害的产量灾损风险随概率的增大而减少,气象灾害发生灾损的概率风险估计值,洪涝灾害风险大于旱灾,风雹灾害的风险大于低温冻害.干旱风险高值区出现在灾损率5%～45%,洪涝灾害出现在5%～70%,风雹灾害在5%～30%,低温冻害的风险主要集中在灾损率5%～20%.     

东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统——在黑龙江省的应用

利用东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统预测分析了黑龙江省1971-2006年各年热量年型,计算了哈尔滨市1984-2006年玉米抽雄期的冷害发生概率,同时采用以5-9月平均温度和的距平作为低温冷害指标的方法计算了1971-2006年低温冷害的发生状况.结果显示,上述两种方法计算得到的低温冷害的年份与历史实况基本相符.通过对比分析发现,有81%的年份两种方法计算的结果一致,且在低温年玉米抽雄期的冷害发生概率均较大,说明东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统在黑龙江省的应用效果较好,可为防灾减灾提供科学参考.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

Where the exception confirms the rule: The cyclones of 1982-1983 in French Polynesia

The island groups of French Polynesia, which had not experienced any really devastating cyclones since the beginning of the century, were hard hit several times between December 1982 and April 1983. This paper reviews the cost of damage from these cyclones and shows how lowered public awareness of the hazard in a low-frequency area combined with the special economic conditions prevailing in the Territory to make the total cost much higher than it need have been. Ways and means of rehabilitation are analyzed. The development of the thermal imbalance in the Pacific, which appears to have triggered this series of natural disasters, only seemingly exceptional, is briefly discussed.     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

Development of urban planning guidelines for improving emergency response capacities in seismic areas of Iran

This paper presents the results of research carried out to improve emergency response activities in earthquake-prone areas of Iran. The research concentrated on emergency response operations, emergency medical care, emergency transportation, and evacuation—the most important issues after an earthquake with regard to saving the lives of victims. For each topic, some guidelines and criteria are presented for enhancing emergency response activities, based on evaluations of experience of strong earthquakes that have occurred over the past two decades in Iran, notably Manjil (1990), Bam (2003), Firouz Abad-Kojour (2004), Zarand (2005) and Broujerd (2006). These guidelines and criteria are applicable to other national contexts, especially countries with similar seismic and social conditions as Iran. The results of this study should be incorporated into comprehensive plans to ensure sustainable development or reconstruction of cities as well as to augment the efficiency of emergency response after an earthquake.     

Public Nutrition from an Approach to a Discipline: Concern's Nutrition Case Studies in Complex Emergencies

The Public Nutrition approach, like that of Public Health, is context specific. It places an emphasis on populations rather than individuals and is inter-disciplinary in nature. Both approaches seek to understand the complex aetiology of a clinical outcome such as malnutrition within the widest possible framework. Public Nutrition uses the UNICEF conceptual framework and adapts and expands it. The authors of this article argue – through the examination of a number of case studies taken from the work of Concern Worldwide (hereafter referred to as Concern) in southern Sudan, Rwanda, Angola, Tanzania and DRC – that there are two critical constituents of the Public Nutrition approach. These are: a contextual analysis (including the use of surveillance information for programme design and advocacy) and community involvement at all stages of the project cycle. Some of the key obstacles to the adoption of the Public Nutrition approach are identified by illustrating two practical programme settings. For the Public Nutrition approach to be more widely used, the authors recommend a number of key strategies including the further dissemination of case studies and the clarification of the scope and boundaries of the approach. These strategies will enable Public Nutrition to evolve both as a practical programme framework as well as an academic discipline.     

Natural disasters in Australia

The history of natural hazards in Australia and their physical, economic and social consequences are discussed in this paper. The lack of any national programme for hazard mitigation is identified, alongside an overview of Australia as a country where major disasters are accepted as a part of everyday life.