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《灾害学》2016,(2)
在既有的泥石流危险度模糊综合评价模型中加入易损度因子,首次建立了泥石流风险度模糊综合评价模型,使用该模型对神农架林区内的5条泥石流沟进行风险评价,得出了"模糊综合评价模型可用于泥石流风险评价"的结论。针对"模糊综合评价模型的计算结果能反映风险大小,不能表现风险特点"的问题,将模糊综合评价法与平面坐标相结合,提出一种新的泥石流风险评价法:模糊坐标法。该方法对泥石流的危险度及易损度分别进行模糊综合评价,用评价结果组成坐标点,并定义坐标点到原点的距离为风险度,利用平面坐标的二维属性使得评价结果既能表现危险度又能表现易损度,泥石流风险的具体特点也得以表达。将两种方法的计算结果进行比较分析,得出"模糊坐标法的评价结果更符合实际,模糊综合评价法的计算结果偏安全"的结论。 相似文献
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四川省石棉县安顺场飞水岩沟泥石流综合评判及风险性分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
飞水岩泥石流位于四川省石棉县安顺场乡,是一条中频中等规模的泥石流沟。该泥石流沟严重威胁着沟口附近的医院、办公楼和民居等安全。在对该沟进行详细调查和研究的基础上,采用数量化综合评判法和模糊数学综合评判法对其严重性进行了分析。综合评判结果显示飞水岩沟属中等严重的泥石流沟。运用泥石流风险评价理论,结合泥石流的危险度评价和易损度评价,综合飞水岩沟泥石流危险度评价(H单=0.52)和灾害的易损度评价(V单=0.59),运用自然灾害风险度模型,得出了飞水岩沟泥石流的风险度为0.31,为中度风险泥石流沟。针对飞水岩沟的特点提出了相应的防治建议。 相似文献
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四川省泥石流风险评价 总被引:10,自引:4,他引:6
以地州市为基本区域单元,给出了四川省泥石流危险度、易损度和风险度的定量评价结果。其中凉山州、阿坝州、甘孜州、雅安地区和攀枝花市为泥石流高风险区,与以上四个地州市具有泥石流高危险度密切相关。风险度的时空变化规律以及与危险度和易损度的相互关系亦在文中作了论述。 相似文献
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北京山区泥石流灾害保险的风险评判方法研究 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
泥石流是北京山区主要的自然灾害,在1989-1999年期间,泥石流灾害造成的经济损失高达3.09亿元.对泥石流灾害保险风险的评判是首先按北京山区各区县的泥石流危险度分区划分风险区,然后对各风险区进行灾害危险性和灾害易损性评判.在危险性评判中,按各风险区的泥石流危险度等级赋予危险度评判指标值.在易损性评判中,选择国内生产总值、固定资产、人口密度和人口自然增长率等4个因素作为评判指标,并分为两个层次进行评判.第一层次是经济易损性与社会易损性评判,第二层次是泥石流灾害易损性评判.最后用泥石流灾害保险风险分析数学模型,计算出各风险区的泥石流灾害保险风险度,并由此绘制了北京山区泥石流灾害保险风险区划图. 相似文献
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泥石流分布密度是区域泥石流危险度评价的主要指标。泥石流分布密度分为点密度和面密度,前者是指每103km内泥石流沟的数量;后者是指每103km内泥石流沟的流域面积。以川西山区60个县市区为研究样本,分别以泥石流点密度和面密度作为区域泥石流危险度的主要评价指标,结合7个相同的区域泥石流危险度的次要评价指标,对研究区以县市区为基本单元的区域泥石流危险度进行了定量评价。结果表明,各县市区面积加权平均后的泥石流危险度分别为0.51(面密度)和0.52(点密度),差别甚微,整体上均属于泥石流中度危险区。两者的平均绝对差值0.04,远小于0.2这一危险度等级差值,平均相对差值为6.49%,小于10%这一允许的均方差范围。由此可知,用泥石流面密度来评价区域泥石流危险度,并非优于点密度;相反地,由于泥石流点密度具有获取资料相对容易、计算比较简便、工作量较小等优点,因而具有更为便利的推广应用价值。 相似文献
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Malholland K 《Disasters》1985,9(4):247-258
In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed. 相似文献
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed. 相似文献
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The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased. 相似文献
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Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations. 相似文献
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Simon McCarthy Sylvia Tunstall Dennis Parker Hazel Faulkner Joe Howe 《Environmental Hazards》2007,7(3):179-192
Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties. 相似文献
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Joseph Chung 《Disasters》1987,11(1):40-48
Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems. 相似文献
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems. 相似文献
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Wisner B 《Disasters》2001,25(3):251-268
Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war. 相似文献
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Sugimoto JD Labrique AB Ahmad S Rashid M Shamim AA Ullah B Klemm RD Christian P West KP 《Disasters》2011,35(2):329-345
The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women. 相似文献
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中国内陆自然环境的干旱化与未来趋势 总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3
根据中国内陆陕西、甘肃部分地区509a旱涝资料和主要测站气象、水文实测数据,应用Word97图形处理系统,证明在526a序列中目前处在11a、50a滑动的干旱期。近46a气温上升了0.3℃,年降水减少了80mm,径流量减少了0.78%,出现了明显的干旱化,环境变化趋势不容乐观。 相似文献