Uniting multi‐adult households during emergency evacuation planning

When a no‐notice emergency prompts an evacuation, family members in different locations throughout a city may unite so that they can evacuate as a group. This paper draws on data from more than 300 interviews conducted in the metropolitan area of Chicago, Illinois, United States. The study uses discrete choice models to analyse the expectations of respondents regarding whether their likely plans for evacuation involve gathering spouses, parents, adult‐age children, and/or non‐family members. In addition, it addresses the matter of whether respondents plan to reunite with family members at home. Individuals' access to a personal car is the dominating factor in predicting whether respondents plan to gather a spouse. Being the parent of a child under the age of 18 years increases the tendency to report planning to reunite with family members at home. Both commute mode and car availability are not significantly associated with plans to reunite at home.     

Return migration after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster: the impact of institutional and individual factors

This paper explores two groups of factors, individual and institutional, that have influenced return migration since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan on 11 March 2011. Based on an analysis of statistical data on evacuees, a questionnaire completed by 289 people who migrated, and 19 semi-structured interviews with disaster-affected people, the research found (apropos of institutional factors) that while the lifting of the government's evacuation order has had no immediate effect on return decisions, the termination of monetary compensation and housing subsidies has had a significant bearing on them. As for individual factors, a strong sense of attachment to home and the possession of property, job obligations, and having family members in the home location are key determinants of return decisions. Moreover, the paper suggests that there could be differing opinions among Japanese government officials and evacuees regarding radiation exposure risk and the degree to which infrastructure and social services have been rehabilitated.     

Characteristics of fear of crime in evacuation shelters after the Great East Japan Earthquake

After the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, numerous evacuees had to stay in evacuation shelters such as school gymnasiums. In general, after a disaster, ensuring the safety and security of evacuees in evacuation shelters is a serious problem. Consequently, many of these evacuees feared that they would be victims of crime in the shelters or that their evacuated homes would be burgled. To examine what factors evoke a general fear of crime in shelters and burglary of evacuated homes, we conducted an online questionnaire on 300 evacuees in Miyagi Prefecture who had stayed at such shelters. From a factor analysis of fear of 16 specific kinds of crime in shelters, we extracted two factors representing fear of property and female-related crime. We then found that a general fear of crime in shelters was associated with being young and a fear of female-related crime, while a fear of burglary of evacuated homes was associated with being female, owning a detached house, and fear of property crime. Based on these results, we provide recommendations aiming to help reduce the fear of crime in shelters and burglary of evacuated homes.     

Disaster warning and evacuation responses by private business employees

When people are advised that their place of employment is threatened with disaster, how do they respond? Interviews with employees (n=406) of 118 businesses affected by one of seven recent disasters provide the first answers to this question. Multivariate analyses document the key variables that best predict variation are: 1) emergent perceptions of risk; 2) time of evacuation from work; 3) time of evacuation from home; 4) multiple evacuations; and 5) tension between work and family commitments. When warned of impending disaster, most employees initially responded with denial. Gradually, however, emergent perceptions of risk intensified especially among those living in communities in which the least amount of disaster planning had occurred or who resided in a mobile home or apartment. Highest levels of work and family tensions during these evacuations were reported by racial minority employees who had children living at home. Policy implications for these and other findings are discussed so as to pin‐point changes business managers should make that will enable them to provide the leadership and compassion expected by employees.     

The World Trade Center Bombing: Injury Prevention Strategies for High-rise Building Fires

The WTC disaster provided an opportunity to look for ways to prevent morbidity among occupants of high-rise buildings during fires. This paper first describes the overall morbidity resulting from the explosion and fire, and second, presents the results of a case-control study carried out to identify risk factors for smoke-related morbidity. The main ones include: increased age, presence of a pre-existing cardio-pulmonary condition, entrapment in a lift and prolonged evacuation time. Study results point to the importance of the following safety systems during high-rise building fires: smoke-control systems with separate emergency power sources; lift-cars, lift-car position-monitoring systems, and lift-car communication systems with separate emergency power sources; two-way emergency communication systems on all floors and in stairwells; stairwells with emergency lighting and designed for the rapid egress of crowds; evacuation systems/equipment to assist in the evacuation of vulnerable people (elderly, infirm). Also important are evacuation plans that include regularly scheduled safety training and evacuation drills.     

Volcanic hazard or economic destitution: hard choices in Banños,Ecuador

In 1999, the entire population of tourism-dependent Baños, Ecuador, some 16,000 people, was evacuated in anticipation of a violent eruption of Mount Tungurahua. Subsequently, many areas in the risk zone experienced heavy ash falls, lahars, and landslides, although no cataclysmic events occurred. Many small rural communities were also evacuated. While these communities became impacted by the hazard, Baños avoided most direct effects. Conditions for all evacuees were grim, and their conditions compounded because Ecuador was simultaneously undergoing profound economic and political crises. Absent livelihood alternatives, community leaders from Baños organized a return to their town even though it remained under an evacuation order. An aggressive campaign brought tourists and more residents back and Baños revived economically; however, this was achieved at the cost of hazard awareness among both groups, tourists and residents, and public safety became compromised.     

Long‐term effects of Hurricane Katrina on the psychological well‐being of evacuees

Hurricane Katrina of August 2005 forced more than one million people to evacuate the Gulf Coast of the United States. This study examines the psychological health and well‐being of a subset of evacuees to determine the prevalence of ongoing mental health problems. Interviews were conducted with 101 adults who evacuated to Louisville, Kentucky, and were living in the state at the one‐year anniversary of the event or had recently returned to the Gulf Coast. The psychological health and well‐being of respondents was evaluated using several well‐validated measures. More than one‐half met the criteria for post‐traumatic stress disorder and a majority were suffering from depression and anxiety. The mean quality of life score was 0.6 on a scale from 0–1, suggesting that adaptation and return to pre‐hurricane well‐being had not occurred 12 months after the storm. The potential for long‐term psychological damage exists in this sample of Hurricane Katrina evacuees. Results suggest other evacuees may also be at heightened risk.     

Patterns of substance use among Hurricane Katrina evacuees in Houston,Texas

This paper focuses on changing patterns of substance use among low income, African American drug users evacuated from New Orleans, Louisiana, during Hurricane Katrina of August 2005. It examines the relationship between increases and decreases in alcohol and tobacco (AT) use and illicit drug (ID) use after Katrina and pre‐disaster and within‐disaster factors. Data from structured interviews with 200 Katrina evacuees currently living in Houston were collected 8–14 months after the disaster. Multivariate analysis revealed that rises in AT use were positively associated with education. Females and younger evacuees were more likely to have increased AT use. ID use increase was positively associated with resource loss and leaving the city before Katrina. Decreases in AT and ID use were found to be associated with disaster‐related exposure. The paper discusses the specific consequences of disasters on disadvantaged minority substance users and the importance of developing public health disaster policies that target this population.     

Mass casualty incident after the Taba terrorist attack: an organisational and medical challenge

Two suicide bombings in and around Taba, Egypt, on 7 October 2004 created a complex medical and organisational situation. Since most victims were Israeli tourists, the National Emergency and Disaster Management Division handled their evacuation and treatment. This paper describes the event chronologically, as well as the organisational and management challenges confronted and applied solutions. Forty-nine emergency personnel and physicians were flown early to the disaster area to reinforce scarce local medical resources. Two hundred casualties were recorded: 32 dead and 168 injured. Eilat hospital was transformed into a triage facility. Thirty-two seriously injured patients were flown to two remote trauma centres in central Israel. Management of mass casualty incidents is difficult when local resources are inadequate. An effective response should include: rapid transportation of experienced trauma teams to the disaster zone; conversion of local medical amenities into a triage centre; and rapid evacuation of the seriously injured to higher level medical facilities.     

Return delays and evacuation order compliance: the case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys

Abstract

Using interview data, we examine the effects of the heavily publicized delays in reentering the Florida Keys after Hurricane Georges on future evacuation intent. Of particular interest is the finding that the delays will have less influence on the future evacuation decisions of those who experienced them than on those who learned of them from secondary sources. Fear of return delays is only one factor in evacuation decision-making, albeit an understudied one. For this sample of evacuees, perceived risk is the most salient factor, and this risk assessment is not sufficiently diminished by the inconveniences, such as delays, associated with evacuation. For non-evacuees, however, the delay factor appeared to only increase their reluctance to evacuate the next time, despite their level of perceived risk.     

Community resilience and volcano hazard: the eruption of Tungurahua and evacuation of the faldas in Ecuador

Official response to explosive volcano hazards usually involves evacuation of local inhabitants to safe shelters. Enforcement is often difficult and problems can be exacerbated when major eruptions do not ensue. Families are deprived of livelihoods and pressure to return to hazardous areas builds. Concomitantly, prevailing socio-economic and political conditions limit activities and can influence vulnerability. This paper addresses these issues, examining an ongoing volcano hazard (Tungurahua) in Ecuador where contextual realities significantly constrain responses. Fieldwork involved interviewing government officials, selecting focus groups and conducting surveys of evacuees in four locations: a temporary shelter, a permanent resettlement, with returnees and with a control group. Differences in perceptions of risk and health conditions, and in the potential for economic recovery were found among groups with different evacuation experiences. The long-term goal is to develop a model of community resilience in long-term stress environments.     

Implementation of a medical command and control team in Switzerland

In case of a major incident or disaster, the advance medical rescue command needs to manage several essential tasks simultaneously. These include the rapid deployment of ambulance, police, fire and evacuation services, and their coordinated activity, as well as triage and emergency medical care on site. The structure of such a medical rescue command is crucial for the successful outcome of medical evacuation at major incidents. However, little data has been published on the nature and structure of the command itself. This study presents a flexible approach to command structure, with two command heads: one emergency physician and one experienced paramedic. This approach is especially suitable for Switzerland, whose federal system allows for different structures in each canton. This article examines the development of these structures and their efficiency, adaptability and limitations with respect to major incident response in the French‐speaking part of the country.     

Alternatives to evacuation during wildland fire: Exploring adaptive capacity in one Idaho community

The use of alternatives to evacuation during wildfire events continues to be an intensely debated strategy in the professional and policy circles of numerous fire-prone countries. The most recent chapter comes in response to the Black Saturday Fires in Australia, which has led to policy changes concerning alternatives to evacuation in both Australia and USA. This study explores the local context that influenced the development of alternatives to evacuation in one Idaho community through in-depth interviews with local residents and officials. It acknowledges alternatives as one ‘fire-adaptive behaviour’ of the local community, a key characteristic that US fire professionals identify as a means to better manage wildfire. We apply and extend a recently created adaptive capacity framework for wildfire to uncover specific community characteristics that both led to and reinforce the development of alternatives to evacuation that are tailored to the local population. Identification of these characteristics serves as one important step towards better local assessment of adaptive capacity for a broad classification of ‘fire-adaptive’ behaviours. We conclude that no one combination of local resources can guarantee the development of alternatives to evacuation. Rather, diverse local context will result in different approaches and applicability of the practice.     

A mixed method study of hurricane evacuation: demographic predictors for stated compliance to voluntary and mandatory orders

The present paper examines the role of several demographic indicators on stated hurricane evacuation thresholds, or the lowest category storm for which participants indicated they would evacuate, for mandatory and voluntary orders. Quantitative analyses reveal that race was significantly associated with a lower stated evacuation threshold in both the bivariate and multivariate models and that previous refusal to comply with evacuation orders was associated with higher stated evacuation thresholds. Qualitative analyses reveal two key findings: (1) wind is perceived as more dangerous than water (rain and storm surge) associated with hurricanes; (2) traffic concerns were the most frequently cited reason listed for possible refusal to comply with evacuation orders. Implications of the findings include the value of future evaluations of race and trust, storm characteristics and threat perception, and other practical considerations for improving evacuation compliance such as the amelioration of traffic concerns. Findings also lead to the discussion of the social complexities of race and hurricane vulnerability as a key finding.     

中小学校作为避难疏散场所的规划对策研究

中小学校具有布局有效,设施齐备,广为人知,生活方便,互救互联,便于疏散等多方面的优点,其作为可利用的应急避难场所重要资源,在城市规划中占有重要的位置。城市因为人员密集,中小学校的利用是满足紧急避难要求所必需的,但是在汶川、玉树等特大地震的抗震救灾实施工作中,暴露出很多建设、规划以及配置等多方面的问题。基于此,通过对中小学校作为避难疏散场所的必要性和有效性进行研究,并从不同角度,不同层面的有效避难面积数据进行统计和分析,结合我国的城市规划和避难疏散规划的现状和相关标准进行比对,研究我国中小学校建筑和规划在避震疏散结构体系和避灾要求方面存在的问题,提出适宜于城市规划和建设的中小学校避难疏散利用对策,为今后中小学校的防灾规划提供依据和参考。     

The role of Confucianism in South Korea's emergency management system

Numerous Western researchers have examined the influence of Confucianism on development in Asia, but almost no South Korean researchers have studied the topic in regard to emergency management in their own country. This study begins by considering Confucianism as a social culture. Next, it goes on to evaluate its role in South Korea's emergency management system, contributing, ultimately, to efficiencies in emergency management. Drawing on a literature review and a case study, the paper assesses the double‐ and single‐faced approaches, using four major Confucian components: destiny; family; ritual; and relation. The double‐faced approach includes the positive and negative aspects of emergency management, whereas the single‐faced approach incorporates only its positive aspects. This paper provides, for the first time, a systematic analysis of the relationship between Confucianism and emergency management in South Korea. Its key finding is that the double‐faced approach needs to be transformed into a single‐faced approach through active facilitation of behavioural change.     

基于虚拟现实的建筑火灾模拟系统

提出了将虚拟现实技术应用于建筑火灾模拟的方法,在交互式虚拟环境中实现了基于火灾数值模拟的火灾场景模拟。根据火灾场模拟软件FDS的计算结果,控制虚拟火灾场景中火焰和烟雾的蔓延,使得虚拟场景中火灾的发展接近实际火灾的情况。模拟系统中通过纹理贴图和粒子系统等技术实现了逼真的火灾场景可视化。还介绍了实现灭火作战模拟和训员疏散模拟的技术细节。在以上方法的基础上研制了建筑火灾模拟原型系统,该系统可应用于电子消防预案制作、灭火作战演练、人员疏散演练、建筑性能化防火设计与评估,以及灾害条件下人的疏散行为研究等各个方面。     

城市应急避难场所层次布局研究(Ⅱ)——三级层次选址模型

分析应急避难场所层次选址的目标因素:建设成本和避难效果,提出总的移动距离最短和建设成本最小两类选址目标,立足城市发展程度差异和现状应急避难场所建设情况分析,将应急避难场所选址类型分为规划性选址、老城新选址、补充性选址三种。依据应急避难场所的三级层次划分,以及单一流、嵌套、空间非匹配的层次特点,分别建立了应急避难场所的规划性选址、老城新选址、补充性选址共8个三级层次选址模型,并通过模拟实验对模型的效果进行了检验。     

地铁车站人员疏散离散时间模型研究

疏散时间对于保证地铁车站这类复杂建筑结构内人群的安全至关重要,本文借鉴群集流动理论建立了用于计算地铁车站人群移动时间的疏散离散时间模型(EDTM),模型中的人群流动系数取值不同于传统计算公式中的常量,依据的是经典的车站人群密度与速度函数关系式。将此模型用于某地铁车站站台层,求解楼梯出口疏散人数与时间的关系,并与Building EXODUS疏散软件的模拟结果以及传统地铁车站疏散时间计算公式的计算结果进行了对比,分析表明,EDTM计算结果与EXODUS疏散模拟结果非常接近,且比传统公式计算更为精确和符合实际情况。该计算模型可以为地铁车站人群疏散时间计算、建筑出口性能化设计,以及地铁车站事故应急预案的制定提供更有效的工具。     

计算机仿真方法在人群疏散影响参数研究中的应用

建筑物中的人群疏散受到灾场环境、建筑结构以及人员本身等诸多因素的共同影响,明确这些因素的影响机理与程度对人群的疏散安全具有重要意义.借助仿真软件buildingEXODUS,以某地铁车站为例,定量地研究了人员行走速度等参数对人群平均等待时间和人群平均行走时间的影响.结果表明:不同参数对人群疏散的影响存在着差别.即使是相同的参数,在不同类型的建筑中,其影响程度也可能发生变化.在此基础上,明确了出口涌流能力、疏散人数、行走速度和疏散准备时间四个对整体疏散时间影响显著的参数,通过对上述参数的控制,可以提高人群疏散的安全可靠性.