北京APEC会议期间GPS水汽与PM2.5/PM10的相关性比较

北京APEC期间的空气质量优良,GPS水汽变化与PM2.5/PM10变化是否存在正相关特性?针对此问题,通过2014年11月4-16日北京GPS水汽数据与PM2.5/PM10观测资料的对比分析研究发现,PM2.5/PM10与GPS可降水量呈明显的正相关性,相关系数大于0.5,个别时段的相关系数达到了0.91。研究结果表明,在空气质量优良状况下,水汽变化与PM2.5/PM10变化存在明显的正相关性。     

基于PM10与气态污染物的北京市PM2.5浓度模型研究

针对2013年北京市10个空气质量观测站点资料,对影响PM2.5浓度的因素进行相关性分析,发现PM2.5浓度与PM10、SO2、NO2和CO存在显著正相关特性。通过PM10与气态污染物构建单站点PM2.5浓度模型和北京市统一化PM2.5浓度模型。通过PM2.5浓度观测值与模型估算结果比较,单站点PM2.5浓度模型与北京市统一化PM2.5浓度模型估算结果一致,且两者均与PM2.5浓度观测值吻合。     

综合GIS的贵阳冬季PM_(2.5)污染时空特征及驱动因素分析

PM2.5是大气污染的主要物质。通过对贵阳市的太慈桥、市环保站、冶金厅、鸿边门、马鞍山、小河区、金阳新区、乌当区、桐木岭9个监测点进行监测,获取2013年12月9日至2014年1月21日的PM2.5日均浓度数据,以及2014年1月7日0时到2014年1月20日23时共336 h的时均浓度数据,通过指标统计和计算,参考世界卫生组织的空气质量准则,结合地理信息系统技术,对贵阳市冬季PM2.5浓度变化的时空特征,进行定量和定性分析,分析污染物浓度变化及其各相关驱动因素之间的关系。结果表明,冬季贵阳PM2.5日均浓度的平均值为85.8μg/m3,日均浓度的最大值和最小值分别是主城区太慈桥96.1μg/m3和远郊区桐木岭67.8μg/m3,全距达28.3μg/m3。日均浓度和时均浓度的抽样平均误差分别为4.11μg/m3和1.8μg/m3。时均浓度变化趋势包括了单峰型、双峰型、递减型、递增型和U型等类型,它们表现出的类似趋势是:在清晨6:00降低到最低值,并在21:00左右升高到最大值。贵阳PM2.5浓度变化受气象条件、土地利用、工业污染、扬尘、汽车尾气和燃煤为主的能源结构的影响,它们表现出复杂的相关性。     

我国六大中心城市PM_(2.5)污染特征及诱因对比分析

对2013年11月至2014年2月中旬时段内,处于不同发展程度的上海、济南、福州、西安、武汉和长沙等六大中心城市PM2.5指标值进行统计;分析了各个城市PM2.5污染特征,并对比研究了导致该类污染的内外原因。结果表明:内在因素方面,城市PM2.5污染程度与其发展速度呈倒U型关系;特别是产业结构对城市PM2.5污染的影响尤为显著;外在因素方面,充沛的降水量对区域该类污染的改善作用明显,地形因素是导致地区PM2.5严重超标的重要原因,来自区域污染源的影响解释了相邻城市该指标变化规律相似的现象。     

一次特强沙尘暴的微气象要素及PM10观测分析

利用相关监测资料,对2006年3月9日特强沙尘暴过程近地层微气象要素变化特征及其与沙尘暴强度之间的关系进行了分析;同时分析了特强沙尘暴过程中PM10的变化特征.结果表明,地面蒙古气旋是形成这次特强沙尘暴的主要原因,沙尘暴过程中近地层微气象要素的变化特征与气旋的位置和强度有关;温、压、湿和风速变化均与沙尘暴的强度密切相关;PM10与沙尘暴的强度之间有很好的对应关系,特强沙尘暴时段PM10最大值超过140mg/m3.     

厄尔尼诺事件对中国沿海地区水汽变化周期的影响

厄尔尼诺事件导致极端天气频发,中国沿海城市较多,分布有不同的气候类型。该文开展厄尔尼诺事件对中国沿海地区水汽变化以及变化是否存在空间差异的分析。基于CMONOC中国沿海地区的GNSS水汽时间序列,综合厄尔尼诺事件(I_EP、I_CP)指数,利用快速傅里叶变换和小波变换方法,从频域和时域开展GNSS水汽时序变化分析,分析东部型与中部型厄尔尼诺事件对中国沿海地区水汽变化的影响。研究发现：GNSS水汽异常值的出现与相应时段的厄尔尼诺事件存在对应。东部型厄尔尼诺(I_EP)与大部分GNSS站点水汽的相关性为正相关;中部型指数(I_CP)与GNSS站点水汽的相关性为负相关。厄尔尼诺事件对水汽变化周期的影响,日周期变化较小,在5 d和10 d周期,东部型厄尔尼诺与中部型厄尔尼诺事件影响下的水汽周期小于正常时段的水汽周期。     

环境规制、空间溢出与城市大气污染——以关中地区为例

基于2001-2016年关中地区城市面板数据，构建空间杜宾模型，识别城市大气污染治理成效。研究表明，关中地区PM2.5存在显著的正向空间溢出效应，周边城市PM2.5浓度升高将加剧中心城市的大气污染状况；关中地区环境规制对本地大气污染的减排效应以及地区间“逐顶竞争”的空间联动效应不足以抵消城市人口、能源结构以及城市交通等社会经济因素对城市PM2.5排放的促进效应，并且工业发展、城市交通使得关中地区城市之间存在跨界污染“转移效应”，不利于区域整体大气质量改善。落实区域大气污染协同治理机制、做好区域内城市经济、产业以及交通的协同发展规划，提升“逐顶竞争”空间联动效应、规避跨地区污染“转移效应”才能进一步提升大气污染联防联控的成效。     

黑龙江省二氧化氮质量浓度变化研究

为研究黑龙江省二氧化氮(NO₂)污染的变化情况，利用2015—2020年黑龙江省13个地市的NO₂监测资料、其他污染物资料及气象资料等，分析全省NO₂浓度的时间变化、空间分布，与其他环境因素的相关影响。结果表明：1)在年均值中仅哈尔滨出现3年超标，其余年份和其他地区都未超标。2015—2017年全省NO₂浓度均值较全国低约23.5%,2018—2020年NO₂浓度均值持续下降。气温、降水、风速等气象条件的逐年变化有利于NO₂浓度下降。全省NO₂月均浓度呈“U”形变化。高值在1月份，为30.0μg/m³,低值在8月份，为14.7μg/m³。2)在全省NO₂浓度的地理分布中，南部的哈尔滨和绥化是高值中心，北部大兴安岭、黑河北部和伊春北部是低值中心，自西向东呈带状分布。各地区NO₂浓度都呈逐年下降的趋势。通过对比，NO₂浓度的分布情...     

中国黄土高原气候系统主要特征

分析了气候系统变化,结果表明:黄土高原气候系统中岩石圈和大气圈相互影响;大气系统中降水量具有很明显的地域和季节性,降水年际变率大,时间变化上降水呈减少趋势,平均每年减少2.5mm左右,下降速度高原东部明显快于西部,年降水存在2～4年左右的年际振荡;年、季气温的年际变化全区以一致变暖为主,高原中部变化幅度大于周边,气温上升速度年平均气温为0.26℃/10a,冬季升温最快,夏季升温最慢;干旱频繁、暴雨较多.     

哈尔滨市高空气候变暖变化分析

依据哈尔滨市1970-2005年的探空资料,采用线性模拟、相关和回归等分析方法,对哈尔滨市35年来地面及高空气候的变化进行分析和预测。研究结果认为:①哈尔滨市对流层中下层、平流层下层气候变化明显,对流层中下层气候变暖变湿,且对流层下层经向风速变小,年平均风速也变小,其中值得关注的是温度升高可延伸到400hPa,比湿增加也从地面延伸到400hPa;②建立了二氧化碳与水汽之间的关系方程,二氧化碳增加,水汽含量也随之增加,二氧化碳每增加一个单位,水汽就增加0.011g/kg;③各层次温度与比湿存在线性关系,水汽对各层次温度所起到的增加作用,随高度的增加增温效果越明显。     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

Where the exception confirms the rule: The cyclones of 1982-1983 in French Polynesia

The island groups of French Polynesia, which had not experienced any really devastating cyclones since the beginning of the century, were hard hit several times between December 1982 and April 1983. This paper reviews the cost of damage from these cyclones and shows how lowered public awareness of the hazard in a low-frequency area combined with the special economic conditions prevailing in the Territory to make the total cost much higher than it need have been. Ways and means of rehabilitation are analyzed. The development of the thermal imbalance in the Pacific, which appears to have triggered this series of natural disasters, only seemingly exceptional, is briefly discussed.     

Development of urban planning guidelines for improving emergency response capacities in seismic areas of Iran

This paper presents the results of research carried out to improve emergency response activities in earthquake-prone areas of Iran. The research concentrated on emergency response operations, emergency medical care, emergency transportation, and evacuation—the most important issues after an earthquake with regard to saving the lives of victims. For each topic, some guidelines and criteria are presented for enhancing emergency response activities, based on evaluations of experience of strong earthquakes that have occurred over the past two decades in Iran, notably Manjil (1990), Bam (2003), Firouz Abad-Kojour (2004), Zarand (2005) and Broujerd (2006). These guidelines and criteria are applicable to other national contexts, especially countries with similar seismic and social conditions as Iran. The results of this study should be incorporated into comprehensive plans to ensure sustainable development or reconstruction of cities as well as to augment the efficiency of emergency response after an earthquake.     

Public Nutrition from an Approach to a Discipline: Concern's Nutrition Case Studies in Complex Emergencies

The Public Nutrition approach, like that of Public Health, is context specific. It places an emphasis on populations rather than individuals and is inter-disciplinary in nature. Both approaches seek to understand the complex aetiology of a clinical outcome such as malnutrition within the widest possible framework. Public Nutrition uses the UNICEF conceptual framework and adapts and expands it. The authors of this article argue – through the examination of a number of case studies taken from the work of Concern Worldwide (hereafter referred to as Concern) in southern Sudan, Rwanda, Angola, Tanzania and DRC – that there are two critical constituents of the Public Nutrition approach. These are: a contextual analysis (including the use of surveillance information for programme design and advocacy) and community involvement at all stages of the project cycle. Some of the key obstacles to the adoption of the Public Nutrition approach are identified by illustrating two practical programme settings. For the Public Nutrition approach to be more widely used, the authors recommend a number of key strategies including the further dissemination of case studies and the clarification of the scope and boundaries of the approach. These strategies will enable Public Nutrition to evolve both as a practical programme framework as well as an academic discipline.     

Natural disasters in Australia

The history of natural hazards in Australia and their physical, economic and social consequences are discussed in this paper. The lack of any national programme for hazard mitigation is identified, alongside an overview of Australia as a country where major disasters are accepted as a part of everyday life.