扎龙自然保护区土地利用变化与生态风险评价

以扎龙自然保护区为例,取该区1989,1999和2006年3个时段的遥感影像为基本数据源,利用GIS为数据处理平台,得到了17a中不同时期的土地利用信息.根据不同土地利用方式生态影响的空间分布和梯度变化,利用层次分析法确定不同土地利用类型的生态风险权重,构造了一个综合性生态风险指数,通过对生态风险指数采样结果进行空间插值,获得了扎龙自然保护区区域生态风险的时空动态分布特征.结果表明:扎龙自然保护区的土地利用以沼泽湿地为主,17a来其耕地和盐碱地的面积在持续增大,而沼泽湿地的面积在持续减小;由此而导致扎龙保护区高风险指数区域的一面积不断增大,低风险指数区域的面积不断减小,使整个区域的生态风险指数整体增高;从空间分布来看,扎龙自然保护区的生态风险指数呈条带状从区域内部向边缘逐渐增高.     

洞庭湖区江滩钉螺分布的环境因子及空间特征——基于RS/GIS的研究

钉螺的分布与其孳生地环境的自然因素密切相关，并具有一定的空间特征。在建立洞庭湖区江滩钉螺分布地理信息系统的基础上，运用GIS空间分析技术，对钉螺孳生地的环境状况作了多因子分析，发现洞庭湖区江滩钉螺孳生地植被类型主要为芦苇和莎草类，孳生地的土壤类型主要为潴育性水稻土；孳生地土壤为pH值处于5．5～7．5的弱酸性环境，有机质含量处于2％～3％；80％孳生地的植被标化指数在0．100～0．375之间、土壤湿度在0．202～0．507之间、近水源距离为10～230之间。并且标化植被指数、莎草类植被类型与钉螺密度成正相关，而pH值、有机质含量均成负相关。同时，钉螺密度的分布也具有一定的特征：（1）在空间上呈集聚模式；（2）空间自相关性比较强，相关程度受离群值的影响；（3）变异函数呈指数模型，并存在空间方向性。     

基于TM与MODIS遥感数据的农业旱情监测——以河北省为例

以河北省冬小麦种植区域为研究区,基于TM和MOD IS遥感数据,利用植被供水指数法确定了研究区旱情等级。首先,将其与遥感解译获得的冬小麦空间分布图叠加得到受灾冬小麦空间分布图;然后以1 km的距离在受灾冬小麦周围做缓冲区,并与通过人口密度模型获得的人口密度空间分布图叠加,得出受灾人口空间分布;最后基于光能利用率改进模型构建粮食产量回归统计模型,得到粮食产量。目的是从粮食产量和作物受灾影响人口两个方面对农业受干旱影响情况进行遥感监测和定量评价,以期为相关部门制定防灾、抗灾措施提供科学依据。结果表明,2004年研究区:(1)春季受灾面积小,仅占16.4%;(2)旱情较轻,以轻旱为主,占受灾面积的89%;(3)冬小麦种植面积约为23 965.0 km2,受灾面积约606.3 km2,主要位于唐山市和保定市;(4)粮食产量回归统计模型精度达到了87%,冬小麦产量约为11939247 t,单产约为498.8 t/km2。     

不同热力背景对城市降雨(暴雨)的影响(Ⅰ)──降雨分布的空间差异

如何准确描述和预测降雨（暴雨）的空间分布，已成为城市减灾防灾的重要内容。本文探讨了利用热信息研究城市降雨空间分布差异的方法．在遥感、ＧＩＳ技术支持下，利用对不同时期夏、冬季热图像的主成分分析和图像分割，将上海市１９５８～１９９８年热环境划分为自然、低温、高温３种不同的热力背景．在此基础上，就不同热力背景对城市降雨（暴雨）分布空间差异的影响规律进行了研究，为建立城市降雨空间差异预报模型奠定了基础．     

多源遥感数据沙尘暴强度监测的信息可比方法

综述了利用遥感技术进行沙尘暴监测研究的国内外进展，提出了利用多源遥感数据识别和提取沙尘暴信息的新方法，利用近红外1．6μm波段特性，构建了可比沙尘强度指数。研究表明：利用卫星探测器11μm，12μm波段差值进行沙尘暴信息识别和提取，可以达到满意的效果，但不能刻画沙尘暴强度；构建的可比沙尘强度指数，能够解决多源遥感数据由于卫星平台、监测时间、监测区域等不同因素导致的监测结果不可比的问题；同时监测结果与地面气象站监测数据有较好的一致性，能够从时间、空间两方面刻画沙尘暴强弱分布，可以作为沙尘暴定量研究的参数，为利用多源遥感数据持续定量地监测沙尘暴的起源、移动、传输路径、扩散等待征奠定了基础。     

沙尘灾害遥感监测方法研究与比较

在研究和分析沙尘灾害遥感监测原理的基础上，针对沙尘灾害遥感监测工作的需要，给出了2种沙尘信息提取方法（分层提取法和热红外窗区法）和3种沙尘灾害强度监测方法（密度分割法、变化矢量分析法和可比沙尘强度指数法），并对各种方法的应用效果分别进行了分析、验证和比较。结果表明：（1）沙尘信息提取方法中，热红外窗区法较分层提取法物理意义明显，稳定性低较高，步骤简单，更适合于业务化实现。（2）沙尘强度监测方法中，密度分割法相对简单，能定性描述沙尘灾害强弱分布；变化矢量分析法虽是一种较好的监测方法，但对数据要求苛刻；可比沙尘强度指数法可用于多源遥感数据动态监测应用，是较为理想的沙尘强度监测方法。（3）综合利用遥感和地面监测数据是沙尘灾害强度监测亟待解决的重点和难点之一；同时，解决多种卫星数据监测结果的一致性和可比性，是实现卫星协同使用、提高沙尘灾害监测时间分辩率的必经途径。     

基于多源遥感影像的台风灾情动态评估——研究进展

沿海地区作为人口聚集、国民经济和社会发展重要的区域和战略中心，台风带来的损失往往是惨重和致命的。尤其是近年来，随着台风突发强度、频度和广度的不断增长，灾后救援工作显得格外重要，亟待开展灾情信息快速获取与动态评估研究。该领域目前主要探讨的问题为：台风灾情信息的遥感数据来源；基于遥感影像的灾情评估方法；台风灾情表征指标与评估模型；台风灾害风险综合管理等。在全球变暖和快速城市化的背景下，目前应集中开展的研究为：以我国沿海地区典型台风为剖析对象，构建台风多尺度灾情表征指标体系和基于多源遥感影像的台风灾情动态评估模型；集成开发遥感-地理信息系统（RS-GIS）灾情动态评估工具集；探讨台风灾情信息共享与分布式管理机制。这不但能实现受灾地区灾情快速评估与制图，而且能为我国沿海地区台风综合灾害风险管理以及可持续发展战略实施提供科学依据。     

利用遥感手段监测草场退化

利用遥感手段监测草场地上生物量的变化,对防止草场退化,保护生态环境具有重要的意义.利用TM数据建立了青海省达日县1986年和2000年的土地利用现状图形库和属性库,统计出了该县的各种土地覆盖类型面积值.研究结果表明,14年来,达日县草地面积减少了830 hm<'2>,草场退化形势严峻.研究同时表明,利用遥感数据监测草原具有其它手段不可比拟的优势.     

基于TM影像的人口密度数字模拟——以北京地区为例

居住区影像是人口分布客观真实的定性表现,对这种定性的数据源进行合理量化即可获得人口实际分布数据。在分析TM影像各个波段特征的基础上,选取5、4、3波段进行图像逻辑运算,比较精确地提取出居住区影像。计算居住区面积并依据面积大小将居住区分为3类,根据人口户籍统计值计算出3类居住区相对的人口分布比例系数kj。然后生成与居住区矢量投影相同的1km网格,利用图层叠加统计每个网格内的居住面积lj,居住区矢量与区县界矢量叠加统计每个区县内的居住面积Am,计算网格人口分配系数ki×lj/Am,依据该系数对人口总数进行网格化模拟,以得到人口密度空间分布规律。以北京地区为试验区进行人口模拟,结果显示北京中心区最大人口密度为16 661人/km2,其他地区最大人口密度是8231人/km2。在模拟结果的基础上估算乡镇级人口,对比分析乡镇级估算人口和实际调查人口对结果进行验证,对比数据表明该算法所得到的人口分布与实际人口分布较为相符。     

相对两面受火下钢管混凝土叠合柱力学性能分析

为研究钢管混凝土叠合柱在偏心荷载和相对两面火灾共同作用下的耐火性能，文中基于ABAQUS有限元软件，采用热力顺序耦合的方法，分别建立了叠合柱温度场模型和力学分析模型，并用已有试验数据进行验证。利用数值模型对钢管混凝土叠合柱在相对两面火灾作用下的温度场变化、破坏形态和内力重分布等力学性能进行分析；基于参数分析结果，给出了钢管混凝土叠合柱在相对两面受火下耐火极限的简化计算公式。研究结果表明：叠合柱在相对两面受火下达到耐火极限时，叠合柱的破坏类型为整体弯曲破坏，温度场呈双轴对称分布；荷载比、长细比、核心面积比、含钢率、外围混凝土强度和截面尺寸是影响钢管混凝土叠合柱耐火极限的主要因素。     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

Where the exception confirms the rule: The cyclones of 1982-1983 in French Polynesia

The island groups of French Polynesia, which had not experienced any really devastating cyclones since the beginning of the century, were hard hit several times between December 1982 and April 1983. This paper reviews the cost of damage from these cyclones and shows how lowered public awareness of the hazard in a low-frequency area combined with the special economic conditions prevailing in the Territory to make the total cost much higher than it need have been. Ways and means of rehabilitation are analyzed. The development of the thermal imbalance in the Pacific, which appears to have triggered this series of natural disasters, only seemingly exceptional, is briefly discussed.     

Development of urban planning guidelines for improving emergency response capacities in seismic areas of Iran

This paper presents the results of research carried out to improve emergency response activities in earthquake-prone areas of Iran. The research concentrated on emergency response operations, emergency medical care, emergency transportation, and evacuation—the most important issues after an earthquake with regard to saving the lives of victims. For each topic, some guidelines and criteria are presented for enhancing emergency response activities, based on evaluations of experience of strong earthquakes that have occurred over the past two decades in Iran, notably Manjil (1990), Bam (2003), Firouz Abad-Kojour (2004), Zarand (2005) and Broujerd (2006). These guidelines and criteria are applicable to other national contexts, especially countries with similar seismic and social conditions as Iran. The results of this study should be incorporated into comprehensive plans to ensure sustainable development or reconstruction of cities as well as to augment the efficiency of emergency response after an earthquake.     

Public Nutrition from an Approach to a Discipline: Concern's Nutrition Case Studies in Complex Emergencies

The Public Nutrition approach, like that of Public Health, is context specific. It places an emphasis on populations rather than individuals and is inter-disciplinary in nature. Both approaches seek to understand the complex aetiology of a clinical outcome such as malnutrition within the widest possible framework. Public Nutrition uses the UNICEF conceptual framework and adapts and expands it. The authors of this article argue – through the examination of a number of case studies taken from the work of Concern Worldwide (hereafter referred to as Concern) in southern Sudan, Rwanda, Angola, Tanzania and DRC – that there are two critical constituents of the Public Nutrition approach. These are: a contextual analysis (including the use of surveillance information for programme design and advocacy) and community involvement at all stages of the project cycle. Some of the key obstacles to the adoption of the Public Nutrition approach are identified by illustrating two practical programme settings. For the Public Nutrition approach to be more widely used, the authors recommend a number of key strategies including the further dissemination of case studies and the clarification of the scope and boundaries of the approach. These strategies will enable Public Nutrition to evolve both as a practical programme framework as well as an academic discipline.     

Natural disasters in Australia

The history of natural hazards in Australia and their physical, economic and social consequences are discussed in this paper. The lack of any national programme for hazard mitigation is identified, alongside an overview of Australia as a country where major disasters are accepted as a part of everyday life.     

Vested Interest theory and disaster preparedness

Three studies were designed to extend a combination of vested interest theory (VI) and the extended parallel process model of fear appeals (EPPM) to provide formative research for creating more effective disaster preparedness social action campaigns. The aim was to develop an effective VI scale for assessing individual awareness and ‘vestedness’ relevant to disaster preparedness. Typical preparedness behaviours are discussed with emphasis on earthquakes and tornados in particular. Brief overviews of VI and the EPPM are offered, and findings are presented from three studies (one dealing with earthquakes, and two with tornados) conducted to determine the factor structure of the key VI components involved, and to develop and test subscales derived from the two theories. The paper finishes with a discussion of future research needs and suggestions on how the new subscales may be applied in the design and execution of more effective disaster preparedness campaigns.