Stay and defend or leave early: Policy problems and experiences during the 2003 Victorian bushfires

Australian state and territory fire authorities advise residents to make a decision to prepare, stay and defend their properties from bushfires or leave well before the fire arrives in their area. The ‘Stay and defend or leave early’ policy is underpinned by strong evidence that well-prepared houses can be successfully defended and that late evacuation is a dangerous strategy. This paper presents the results of a study of the policy's implementation during the 2003 bushfires in North East Victoria and East Gippsland. Results suggest that despite high levels of awareness and support for the policy, there is some confusion over what it means to ‘stay and defend’ and ‘leave early’.     

Y2K—a humanitarian disaster? Why not?

Australian bushfire agencies have a position that people in the path of a fire should either prepare, stay and defend their properties, or leave the area well before the fire front arrives. The position is based largely on observations that evacuating at the last minute is often fatal and that, generally, a key factor in house survival during a wildfire is the presence of people in the building. In practice, full implementation of the position has been difficult for a range of reasons.

As part of the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) research effort <www.bushfirecrc.com>, our project is examining the evidence base for this position and aims to suggest ways of improving implementation.

We have found that the available evidence, which goes back some 60 yr, strongly supports the Australian position. The position is supported on the grounds of both improved safety and reduced property loss. The evidence also shows that the most dangerous option—and the cause of most fatalities—is last minute evacuation.     

Predicting self-evacuation in Australian bushfire

Australian bushfire safety policy does not require mandatory evacuation from bushfire as practiced in North America and other jurisdictions. Australian householders confronted with a bushfire threat must decide whether they remain and defend their property or evacuate. A better understanding of factors that influence householders’ decisions to self-evacuate can inform bushfire safety policy. Studies have identified variables that motivate evacuation from various hazards, including wildfire, but factors shaping the decision processes are not well understood. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a theoretical framework of factors influencing protective response to hazard to analyse the actions of householders affected by two bushfires. Three factors that predict self-evacuation were identified: the perception that evacuation is effective in protecting personal safety; the receipt of official warnings; and perceived threat to property. These findings reinforce the importance of increasing householder awareness and sensitivity to the danger posed by bushfire; the adequacy of people’s bushfire preparedness; the effectiveness of early evacuation in protecting personal safety; and the potential persuasiveness of accurate, relevant and timely official warning messages in influencing safe evacuation from bushfire.     

Community‐based preparedness programmes and the 2009 Australian bushfires: policy implications derived from applying theory

The Victorian Country Fire Authority in Australia runs the Community Fireguard (CFG) programme to assist individuals and communities in preparing for fire. The objective of this qualitative research was to understand the impact of CFG groups on their members' fire preparedness and response during the 2009 Australian bushfires. Social connectedness emerged as a strong theme, leading to an analysis of data using social capital theory. The main strength of the CFG programme was that it was driven by innovative community members; however, concerns arose regarding the extent to which the programme covered all vulnerable areas, which led the research team to explore the theory of diffusion of innovation. The article concludes by stepping back from the evaluation and using both applied theories to reflect on broad options for community fire preparedness programmes in general. The exercise produced two contrasting options for principles underlying community fire preparedness programmes.     

Estimating the economic,social and environmental impacts of wildfires in Australia

It is often said that bushfires are a fact of life in Australia. While Australian communities will always be affected by the impacts of bushfires, there is an element of human involvement that makes at least some bushfires avoidable. In Australia more bushfires are started by deliberate lighting than are caused by lightning or other natural sources. This creates an element of criminality in relation to bushfires which includes the establishment of bushfire arson as a serious criminal offence. The author presents a motive-based typology of deliberately lit bushfires and argues that a greater understanding of the reasons why people light bushfires can help prevention, investigation and treatment of offenders.     

‘Natural disasters’ and newspapers: Post-tsunami environmental discourse

In this paper we explore the concept of ‘natural disasters’ as opportunities for influencing public perceptions of the environment through the media. We provide a critical analysis of the discourse in a selection of newspaper articles and identify the way in which various actors have utilised UK national newspaper coverage of the Asian tsunami to promote particular agendas and to legitimise policies and actions. A systematic and iterative sampling approach was developed that allowed us to combine quantitative and qualitative methods to search for articles that contained content directly related to the environmental aspects of the tsunami. Three main themes emerged; coastal ecosystems, the fisheries sector, and redevelopment. The discourse within these areas was markedly different. While the coastal ecosystems discourse was hegemonic in terms of narratives and actor coalitions, the fisheries and redevelopment discourse incorporated a more diverse set of actors and storylines that perhaps reflects the lack of consensus on the best way of achieving sustainable solutions. We also contrast the limited discussion and representation of tsunami-related environmental issues within UK national newspapers with the more detailed discussion within the peer-reviewed literature and the grey literature. We argue that ‘natural disasters’ provide both opportunities and risks for raising awareness of environmental issues, mobilising funding and directing action to environmentally and socially vulnerable areas of the world, and that consequently NGOs, intergovernmental bodies and government departments should be mindful of the long-term consequences of global media attention.     

‘Natural’ disaster? A retrospect into the causes of the late-2004 typhoon disaster in Eastern Luzon, Philippines

Between 14 November and 4 December 2004, four successive tropical depressions and typhoons lashed the Eastern coast of Luzon in the Philippines. Heavy rainfall triggered massive landslides and devastating flash floods, which brought tremendous damage and killed more than 1600 people. Immediately after the disaster, there was a media and political consensus to incrimate ‘extraordinary’ natural phenomena and widespread deforestation as responsible for the catastrophe. We argue that the tragedy that befell the municipalities of General Nakar, Infanta and Real, among other devastated areas, is enmeshed in a deeper tangle of causal factors that are political, socio-economic and demographic in nature. These factors include unmanaged population growth, difficult access to land and resources, corruption within the government, and power of the elite.     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

Evaluating benefits and costs of wildland fires: critical review and future applications

The wildland fire sector faces increased frequency and size of fires and increasing community expectations and costs of management, and is turning more to economics to inform management and policy decisions. However, the literature on costs and benefits of wildland fires and their management is disparate and unstructured and requires critical review and synthesis to better inform potential users. We reviewed 60 economic studies to identify why, what and how evaluations were undertaken. We synthesised the results into a systematic framework of the types of economic evaluations and methods that can be undertaken to inform fire management and policy. We found that key challenges in undertaking economic evaluations include risk and uncertainty surrounding decisions, and data limitations. Most studies have focused on sector management-level decisions of pre-suppression and suppression activities, dominated by US applications. There are opportunities to undertake evaluations in other decision and geographic contexts.     

The responses of professional fire-fighters to disaster

This paper reports the results of a survey of the physical and mental reactions of a group ( N = 72) of members of the South Australian Metropolitan Fire Service (MFS) who were engaged in fighting the bushfires close to Adelaide, 16th-19th February 1983. A questionnaire, designed to elicit reports on both physical and mental reactions to exposure to the fire, as well as perceptions of several measures of social strain and social support, was administered to the firefighters when they came off duty. The results reported show the possible influence of role strain factors in predicting mental reactions, and also demonstrate what may be mediating effects of perceived social support. The paper also discusses methodological problems affecting this and other studies of the reactions of emergency service personnel to disaster.     

A proposed framework of key activities and processes in the preparedness and recovery phases of disaster management

This paper proposes an empirically grounded framework for examining the preparedness and recovery phases of disaster management activities and processes pertaining to predictable disasters within a developed country. The two‐stage framework provides a single model composed of important preparedness and recovery initiatives, as well as activities and processes derived from empirical data collected for case studies from Australia: the ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires in the state of Victoria in February 2009; and Cyclone Larry in March 2006. The framework enables a variety of analyses, including the generation of insights into disaster management preparedness and recovery in the context of events in wealthy developed countries. The paper combines two empirical examples, a series of bushfires and a severe tropical cyclone, to enhance understanding of, and to contribute to better, disaster preparedness and recovery in the future. The paper contributes to the growing literature on disasters, preparedness, recovery and associated logistics, and other issues.     

中蒙边境典型草原可燃物热解动力学研究

以中蒙边境(包括东乌旗、二连浩特市、新巴尔虎右旗)的草原可燃物为研究对象,利用STA 6000热重分析仪,采用热重分析法以5 ml/min,10 ml/min,20 ml/min,30 ml/min的氧气为载气,在空气气氛下,升温速率分别为40℃/min,60℃/min,80℃/min时对三个地区草原可燃物的热失重行为进行研究。利用TG-DTG曲线分析典型草原可燃物的热解特性,运用Coats-Redfern积分法和Flynn-Wall-Ozawa法得出在不同氧气浓度下的热解活化能和指前因子并求得相应参数。中蒙边境三个地区草原可燃物的热解过程分为三个阶段:水分析出阶段、快速热解阶段和碳化阶段。其中快速热解阶段的温度在270℃~450℃之间,此阶段中升温速率越快,温度滞后现象越明显;通氧速率越快,温度超前现象越明显。Flynn-Wall-Ozawa法在进行参数计算过程具有更小误差,所以较Coats-Redfern积分法更适合本次研究。热解过程及动力学参数分析表明,三个地区具有相同的热分解过程,引发火灾危险程度为:新巴尔虎右旗<东乌旗<二连浩特,因此,二连浩特市的草原可燃物较另外两地区更易燃烧,应加强草原火灾的预防和管理。     

某钢结构物流中心火灾案例及结构抗火分析

2011年3月,某钢结构物流中心发生火灾,过火面积约7000m2,损失惨重。通过对该例火灾的起因、火势蔓延、结构倒塌进行分析,探讨钢结构建筑防火设计和结构抗火措施。研究结果表明:①钢结构因本身抗火性能差,易垮塌,不利于火灾扑救;②在火灾中钢结构易整体破坏,造成重大损失;③由于未采取防火分隔,扩大了火灾蔓延途径和过火面积,加剧了火灾损失,也加大了火灾扑救难度。为了减轻火灾损失,应当:①合理设置防火分隔;②提高或保证钢柱、钢梁的耐火极限,以提升结构抗火能力;③加强对钢构件和结点的防火保护;④保证自动喷水灭火系统的正常运行,有效实施初期灭火。     

Media and bushfires: A community perspective of the media during the Grampians Fires 2006

This paper examines the ways residents in the Grampians area in the Australian state of Victoria used their local and their state and national based media before, during and after the 2006 bushfires (wildfires). The researchers were particularly concerned to understand how residents evaluated media sources as trustworthy and credible in relation to bushfire warnings and information about the fires delivered in the media.

Analysis of data derived from two separate focus group sessions conducted by the researchers reveals four main themes. (1) The media are perceived as part of a broader information gathering process. (2) Local knowledge is the most important aspect in broadcast information. (3) Members of small communities can feel disenfranchised and resentful of the media when media coverage focuses on larger towns, and (4) the effects of media reporting, including specific warnings, are both immediate and long lasting.

The paper explores some of the tensions that result from the ways rural residents use and distinguish between local/regional and metropolitan and out-of-state bushfire information; and it encourages better use of the local/regional media to increase community safety and awareness in relation to bushfire mitigation, preparedness and crisis management issues before, during and after the fires. It is suggested that risk communications professionals need to understand that when mediated risk-related communications are provided, a key evaluative criterion is whether or not those media and the messages represent and reflect local knowledge.     

Flooding,resettlement, and change in livelihoods: evidence from rural Mozambique

Post‐disaster development policies, such as resettlement, can have major impacts on communities. This paper examines how and why people's livelihoods change as a result of resettlement, and relocated people's views of such changes, in the context of natural disasters. It presents two historically‐grounded, comparative case studies of post‐flood resettlement in rural Mozambique. The studies demonstrate a movement away from rain‐fed subsistence agriculture towards commercial agriculture and non‐agricultural activities. The ability to secure a viable livelihood was a key determinant of whether resettlers remained in their new locations or returned to the river valleys despite the risks posed by floods. The findings suggest that more research is required to understand i) why resettlers choose to stay in or abandon designated resettlement areas, ii) what is meant by ‘voluntary’ and ‘involuntary’ resettlement in the realm of post‐disaster reconstruction, and iii) the policy drivers of resettlement in developing countries.     

Humanitarianism and Local Service Institutions in Angola

The role of local service institutions is not a major focus of current discourse on humanitarianism and complex emergencies. These institutions, in the few places where they are mentioned, are usually presented as either the seed of civil society and future democracy, or as pawns and components of the predatory economic, political and military élites. Few would deny that examples can be found which conform to both of these stereotypes. This simplistic representation of local institutions ignores the perspectives of the actors themselves — the nurses, extension agents, school teachers and others who actually staff most NGO-supported projects. The debate has focused on what ‘we’ should do; the moral dilemmas of aid agencies and their expatriate staff, inevitably leading to the question of whether or not humanitarian workers should stay or leave situations in which aid may be causing more harm than good. Without denying the fundamental importance of these issues, it is important to consider also how the discourse has unfortunately moved away from those humanitarian workers who have no such choice, since they live there. Current concerns about keeping humanitarian aid from feeding local political and military struggles may inadvertently and paradoxically serve to constrain room for man?uvre in the field, particularly among those individuals with the greatest tacit understanding of the predatory environment. There is a need to understand how actors in local service institutions make sense of their own situations, including the factors which frame their moral dilemmas and their day-to-day choices. By analysing the organisational processes within local service institutions, this study is intended to provoke consideration of how these individuals and their institutions may be effectively supported in complex emergencies through a focus on how they themselves deal with danger and complexity. It is suggested that there is a value in considering the lessons learnt in recent years about how service organisations in the North function in turbulent environments. This experience points to the importance of allowing workers the discretion to develop a relationship with their clients, and in so doing make sense of a confusing and ambivalent environment.     

Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: Progress and future trends

Global maps of natural hazard occurrence and risk are useful tools for policy makers and international development organizations. The ranking of countries or regions by relative exposure provides a metric for prioritizing strategies for natural hazard mitigation and risk management, and for planning for response and recovery. However, the calculations underlying global natural hazard risk mapping depend on the availability and quality of geophysical and socio-economic data, which are highly variable from region to region, and may impede the application of global rankings to regional decision making. This paper summarizes a recent synthesis of natural hazard occurrence, exposure and loss data—the World Bank's “Hotspots” project—and describes the advantages and difficulties in such an approach. Several suggestions for more highly resolved, regional and sub-national analyses are made.     

Media and bushfires: A community perspective of the media during the Grampians Fires 2006

This paper examines the ways residents in the Grampians area in the Australian state of Victoria used their local and their state and national based media before, during and after the 2006 bushfires (wildfires). The researchers were particularly concerned to understand how residents evaluated media sources as trustworthy and credible in relation to bushfire warnings and information about the fires delivered in the media.Analysis of data derived from two separate focus group sessions conducted by the researchers reveals four main themes. (1) The media are perceived as part of a broader information gathering process. (2) Local knowledge is the most important aspect in broadcast information. (3) Members of small communities can feel disenfranchised and resentful of the media when media coverage focuses on larger towns, and (4) the effects of media reporting, including specific warnings, are both immediate and long lasting.The paper explores some of the tensions that result from the ways rural residents use and distinguish between local/regional and metropolitan and out-of-state bushfire information; and it encourages better use of the local/regional media to increase community safety and awareness in relation to bushfire mitigation, preparedness and crisis management issues before, during and after the fires. It is suggested that risk communications professionals need to understand that when mediated risk-related communications are provided, a key evaluative criterion is whether or not those media and the messages represent and reflect local knowledge.     

The Picturescue Movement: restoring photographs following the 2011 tsunami in Japan

After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, volunteers participated in the recovery of lost photographs. This effort—which we call the Picturescue Movement—subsequently began to organise photograph restoration gatherings. We conducted field research during the gatherings in Noda, one of the tsunami-stricken areas. We have also carried out research on restoration gatherings in the city of Rikuzentakata. A comparison of findings across these two localities identifies two approaches to photograph restoration gatherings: ‘aiming’ and ‘staying'. The aiming approach, employed in Rikuzentakata, emphasises returning photographs to their owners quickly, whereas the latter approach, used in Noda, is one in which volunteers stay with survivors for some time and encourage them to recall the past at their own pace. We conclude that the staying approach is more likely than the aiming approach to promote disaster recovery among survivors.     

Build back better: implementation in Victorian bushfire reconstruction

The ‘build back better’ (BBB) concept signals an opportunity to decrease the vulnerability of communities to future disasters during post‐disaster reconstruction and recovery. The 2009 Victorian bushfires in Australia serve as a case study for this assessment of the application of core BBB principles and their outcomes. The results show that several BBB measures were successfully implemented in Victoria and are relevant for any post‐disaster reconstruction effort. The BBB initiatives taken in Victoria include: land‐use planning determined by hazard risk‐based zoning; enforcement of structural design improvements; facilitated permit procedures; regular consultations with stakeholders; and programmes conducted for social and economic recovery. Lessons from the Victorian recovery urge the avoidance of construction in high‐risk zones; fairness and representativeness in community consultations; adequate support for economic recovery; the advance establishment of recovery frameworks; and empowerment of local councils.