基于网络效率的城市轨道交通网络震后性能评估∗

对于以地铁为主要组成部分的城市轨道交通系统,地震作用造成的车站、隧道等结构的损伤和破坏,会严重影响系统的交通运行功能。目前针对扰动事故场景下轨道交通网络性能的研究,主要集中于随机失效和蓄意攻击场景,缺乏地震场景下的相关研究。本文采用客流加权的网络效率指标,研究了不同地震作用下轨道交通网络的抗震性能。利用图论建模方法构建网络拓扑模型,基于车站、区间隧道等主体结构的地震易损性模型计算结构失效概率,采用 Monte Carlo 模拟方法抽样网络单元的震后状态,利用三类网络效率指标(拓扑网络效率、站点流量加权网络效率和网络服务效率)评价网络的震后性能。以北京市轨道交通网络为例,比较了不同地震作用场景下的网络性能指标,选择站点流量加权网络效率指标表示网络震后性能;计算不同 PGA 下的网络性能损失,拟合得到了案例轨道交通网络地震易损性模型,便于案例网络震后性能的快速评估。     

工作竖井与隧道连接处支护结构横向地震响应

建立了工作竖井与盾构隧道、明挖隧道相连的空间交叉结构三维模型,采用FLAC3D对该复杂结构进行了横向地震响应分析,得到了工作竖井与隧道连接处支护结构关键点的位移和应力响应规律。通过对地震横向激励过程中竖井与隧道连接处支护结构收敛位移和关键点主应力峰值的分析,对该结构的横向抗震性能做出了评价。     

桥梁群体震害预测方法的研究

本文研究了桥梁群体震害预测方法的理论,并采用模糊数学、灰色系统理论和概率分析方法,建立了中、小型桥梁群体震害预测的数学模型。在对江南一带城市地震震害预测工作中桥梁抽样单体震害预测经验法的计算基础上,给出了公路桥梁在不同地震烈度影响下的单因素评价矩阵,为区域性的地震震害预测工作提供了一个有力的实用工具。     

杭州过江隧道火灾时人员安全疏散研究

以杭州过江隧道为研究对象,分析了隧道火灾时人员安全疏散准则及影响因素,介绍了隧道内人员安全疏散研究的一种思路和方法。设定包含最不利情况的火灾场景,然后对各种火灾场景下的烟气蔓延及人员疏散进行模拟,得到了各种火灾场景下隧道内的可用安全疏散时间ASET曲线和必需安全疏散时间RSET曲线;比较分析这两条曲线,得到了疏散救援通道的设置参数,给隧道消防设计提供了依据。     

基于修正惯用法的埋深对圆形隧道地震反应影响∗

采用修正惯用法,在考虑土拱效应对圆形隧道结构受力状态影响的基础上,研究了埋深对地下结构地震反应的影响规律。首先,对比分析了不考虑和考虑土拱效应时、地震荷载作用前,隧道结构内力分布及随埋深的变化规律;将作用于隧道结构上的水平地震荷载等效为围岩土体变形导致的土压力的改变值;继而探讨了考虑土拱效应后,地震荷载引起的隧道结构内力的改变,研究了不同地震动强度下,埋深对圆形隧道结构地震反应的影响规律。 研究结果显示,地震作用下,圆形隧道结构的内力随着埋置深度的增加呈现出先增大后减小或趋于稳定的趋势,即圆形隧道结构地震反应存在一个抗震关键埋深。     

饱和土-隧道动力相互作用对地震动土作用和孔隙动水压力的影响

本文利用间接边界元方法,研究了饱和土-隧道动力相互作用对隧道地震动土作用和孔隙动水压力的影响,考虑了不同隧道质量和埋深,以及地震波斜入射情况。饱和场地根据Biot理论模拟为两相介质,通过将饱和两相介质模型所得隧道地震动土作用与单相介质模型结果进行比较,分析了饱和土骨架和孔隙水动力耦合作用的影响。结果表明,饱和土-隧道动力相互作用对地震动土作用有明显放大效应,本文算例中,隧道水平地震动土作用较自由场结果最大放大1. 7倍,竖向地震动土作用较自由场结果最大放大1. 6倍;饱和土骨架和孔隙水的动力耦合作用对隧道地震动土作用大小也有显著影响,本文算例中,单相介质模型所得地震动土作用较饱和两相模型的最大差别可达210%。     

软土地区地表结构对盾构隧道地震响应影响的风险分析

本文基于ABAQUS有限元软件建立了软土地区地表结构-土-隧道相互作用的非线性有限元模型,地表结构采用置于刚性筏板基础的单自由度体系模拟。考虑地表结构的有无,不同的土体模型及地震荷载,通过水平地震作用下的动力时程反应分析,研究了地表结构对盾构隧道周围土体以及衬砌地震响应的影响。研究表明,地表结构的存在会增大隧道周围土体地震响应,从而引起隧道结构变形以及动态内力的显著增加,同时发现采用弹塑性分析下的隧道地震响应大于采用黏弹性分析。因此,地表结构作用是影响盾构隧道响应的重要因素,综合分析地表结构-土-隧道作用下的结构动态响应有助于更合理的预测地震荷载下盾构隧道结构安全风险。     

下穿隧道对地铁车站结构地震反应的影响研究*

针对下穿隧道对临近地铁车站地震反应的影响问题,本文采用数值模拟方法,基于 ABAQUS 平台建立了隧道下穿大开地铁车站的整体三维非线性数值分析模型,通过改变地震动类型和隧道与车站结构的交叉净距,从结构构件的破坏比和竖向变形等角度,定量分析了不同工况下隧道下穿对车站结构地震反应的影响,并与单体大开车站原型结构的地震反应进行了对比。研究表明：下穿隧道会增大地铁车站结构中柱和侧墙的破坏比(相应的最大增幅：中柱为 35%,侧墙为 26%);同时,底板的竖向变形显著增大,最大增幅达到 100%;随着交叉净距的增大, 中柱和侧墙地震反应减小,而底板竖向沉降有所增大;下穿隧道对车站结构地震反应的影响范围约为隧道直径的 3 倍。研究成果对隧道近距离穿越地铁车站结构的设计与分析具有一定的参考价值。     

随机地震作用下悬浮隧道锚索的动力响应分析∗

研究了悬浮隧道锚索在地震与水动力共同作用下的动力响应。通过将悬浮隧道锚索简化为欧拉梁模型,建立悬浮隧道锚索受到水动力和地震共同作用振动的运动方程。采用分离变量法和伽辽金法求解运动方程,并使用四阶龙格-库塔法求解得到悬浮隧道锚索的位移响应情况。采用三角级数法模拟生成人工地震波,并选用了三种著名的地震记录,对悬浮隧道在不同地震波激励下的关键结构参数对锚索位移响应进行数值分析。结果表明:(1)地震的加速度越大,锚索的运动响应越剧烈,产生的位移和能量越大。地震波的峰值加速度出现时间和大小也对锚索的峰值振幅有一定影响。(2)参数频率和阻尼比等因素对锚索的位移都有重要的影响,但在不同的地震作用下影响程度不同。通过控制参数频率和阻尼比可以减小地震对悬浮隧道锚索及整体结构的破坏效果。     

大跨径预应力混凝土连续梁桥地震反应分析

大跨连续梁桥纵向延伸较长,地震发生时各个支承处的地震波的振幅和频率是不同的.以某12跨预应力混凝土连续梁桥为例,推导了结构的运动方程,采用有限元结构分析软件ANSYS建立了该桥的动力分析模型,进行了模态分析和时程分析.通过输入不同波速的地震波,计算行波激励下桥梁的地震反应,并和一致激励下的结果进行对比,分析了行波效应对桥梁地震反应的影响.结果表明:滑动支座摩擦力减小了桥梁纵向的地震反应,但对桥梁横向地震反应影响较小.行波效应减小了制动墩的纵向地震反应,增大了其它桥墩的纵向地震反应,但对桥梁横向地震反应影响较小.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

Where the exception confirms the rule: The cyclones of 1982-1983 in French Polynesia

The island groups of French Polynesia, which had not experienced any really devastating cyclones since the beginning of the century, were hard hit several times between December 1982 and April 1983. This paper reviews the cost of damage from these cyclones and shows how lowered public awareness of the hazard in a low-frequency area combined with the special economic conditions prevailing in the Territory to make the total cost much higher than it need have been. Ways and means of rehabilitation are analyzed. The development of the thermal imbalance in the Pacific, which appears to have triggered this series of natural disasters, only seemingly exceptional, is briefly discussed.     

Development of urban planning guidelines for improving emergency response capacities in seismic areas of Iran

This paper presents the results of research carried out to improve emergency response activities in earthquake-prone areas of Iran. The research concentrated on emergency response operations, emergency medical care, emergency transportation, and evacuation—the most important issues after an earthquake with regard to saving the lives of victims. For each topic, some guidelines and criteria are presented for enhancing emergency response activities, based on evaluations of experience of strong earthquakes that have occurred over the past two decades in Iran, notably Manjil (1990), Bam (2003), Firouz Abad-Kojour (2004), Zarand (2005) and Broujerd (2006). These guidelines and criteria are applicable to other national contexts, especially countries with similar seismic and social conditions as Iran. The results of this study should be incorporated into comprehensive plans to ensure sustainable development or reconstruction of cities as well as to augment the efficiency of emergency response after an earthquake.     

Public Nutrition from an Approach to a Discipline: Concern's Nutrition Case Studies in Complex Emergencies

The Public Nutrition approach, like that of Public Health, is context specific. It places an emphasis on populations rather than individuals and is inter-disciplinary in nature. Both approaches seek to understand the complex aetiology of a clinical outcome such as malnutrition within the widest possible framework. Public Nutrition uses the UNICEF conceptual framework and adapts and expands it. The authors of this article argue – through the examination of a number of case studies taken from the work of Concern Worldwide (hereafter referred to as Concern) in southern Sudan, Rwanda, Angola, Tanzania and DRC – that there are two critical constituents of the Public Nutrition approach. These are: a contextual analysis (including the use of surveillance information for programme design and advocacy) and community involvement at all stages of the project cycle. Some of the key obstacles to the adoption of the Public Nutrition approach are identified by illustrating two practical programme settings. For the Public Nutrition approach to be more widely used, the authors recommend a number of key strategies including the further dissemination of case studies and the clarification of the scope and boundaries of the approach. These strategies will enable Public Nutrition to evolve both as a practical programme framework as well as an academic discipline.     

Natural disasters in Australia

The history of natural hazards in Australia and their physical, economic and social consequences are discussed in this paper. The lack of any national programme for hazard mitigation is identified, alongside an overview of Australia as a country where major disasters are accepted as a part of everyday life.     

Vested Interest theory and disaster preparedness

Three studies were designed to extend a combination of vested interest theory (VI) and the extended parallel process model of fear appeals (EPPM) to provide formative research for creating more effective disaster preparedness social action campaigns. The aim was to develop an effective VI scale for assessing individual awareness and ‘vestedness’ relevant to disaster preparedness. Typical preparedness behaviours are discussed with emphasis on earthquakes and tornados in particular. Brief overviews of VI and the EPPM are offered, and findings are presented from three studies (one dealing with earthquakes, and two with tornados) conducted to determine the factor structure of the key VI components involved, and to develop and test subscales derived from the two theories. The paper finishes with a discussion of future research needs and suggestions on how the new subscales may be applied in the design and execution of more effective disaster preparedness campaigns.