Application of spatial and non-spatial data analysis in determination of the factors that impact municipal solid waste generation rates in Turkey

In studies focusing on the factors that impact solid waste generation habits and rates, the potential spatial dependency in solid waste generation data is not considered in relating the waste generation rates to its determinants. In this study, spatial dependency is taken into account in determination of the significant socio-economic and climatic factors that may be of importance for the municipal solid waste (MSW) generation rates in different provinces of Turkey. Simultaneous spatial autoregression (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models are used for the spatial data analyses. Similar to ordinary least squares regression (OLSR), regression coefficients are global in SAR model. In other words, the effect of a given independent variable on a dependent variable is valid for the whole country. Unlike OLSR or SAR, GWR reveals the local impact of a given factor (or independent variable) on the waste generation rates of different provinces. Results show that provinces within closer neighborhoods have similar MSW generation rates. On the other hand, this spatial autocorrelation is not very high for the exploratory variables considered in the study. OLSR and SAR models have similar regression coefficients. GWR is useful to indicate the local determinants of MSW generation rates. GWR model can be utilized to plan waste management activities at local scale including waste minimization, collection, treatment, and disposal. At global scale, the MSW generation rates in Turkey are significantly related to unemployment rate and asphalt-paved roads ratio. Yet, significances of these variables may diminish at local scale for some provinces. At local scale, different factors may be important in affecting MSW generation rates.     

A model to estimate the methane generation rate constant in sanitary landfills using fuzzy synthetic evaluation.

This paper presents a model using fuzzy synthetic evaluation to estimate the methane generation rate constant, k, for landfills. Four major parameters, precipitation, temperature, waste composition and landfill depth were used as inputs to the model. Whereas, these parameters are known to impact the methane generation, mathematical relationships between them and the methane generation rate constant required to estimate methane generation in landfills, are not known. In addition, the spatial variations of k within a landfill combined with the necessity of site-specific information to estimate its value, makes k one of the most elusive parameters in the accurate prediction of methane generation within a landfill. In this paper, a fuzzy technique was used to develop a model to predict the methane generation rate constant. The model was calibrated and verified using k values from 42 locations. Data from 10 sites were used to calibrate the model and the rest were used to verify it. The model predictions are reasonably accurate. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to investigate the effect of uncertainty in the input parameters on the generation rate constant.     

Domestic waste management and recovery in Hong Kong

This article presents a review of the current municipal solid waste (MSW) and domestic waste generation and recovery situation in Hong Kong and identifies the factors affecting the waste generation rates. The results show that before 1997, MSW and domestic waste generation rates were driven by population growth and growth in the gross domestic product, with the latter having the larger effect. But recent waste generation data show poor correlation between waste generation rates and economic and population figures due to the increase in recycling efforts in the community. The results are also reported of a small-scale survey to explore the public attitude to waste recovery. The results show that most domestic householders have developed habits to carry out separation of waste at source for recycling, but the amount of recyclables recovered was low.     

Gray correlation analysis and prediction models of living refuse generation in Shanghai city

A better understanding of the factors that affect the generation of municipal living refuse (MLF) and the accurate prediction of its generation are crucial for municipal planning projects and city management. Up to now, most of the design efforts have been based on a rough prediction of MLF without any actual support. In this paper, based on published data of socioeconomic variables and MLF generation from 1990 to 2003 in the city of Shanghai, the main factors that affect MLF generation have been quantitatively studied using the method of gray correlation coefficient. Several gray models, such as GM(1,1), GIM(1), GPPM(1) and GLPM(1), have been studied, and predicted results are verified with subsequent residual test. Results show that, among the selected seven factors, consumption of gas, water and electricity are the largest three factors affecting MLF generation, and GLPM(1) is the optimized model to predict MLF generation. Through this model, the predicted MLF generation in 2010 in Shanghai will be 7.65 million tons. The methods and results developed in this paper can provide valuable information for MLF management and related municipal planning projects.     

Environmental assessment of gas management options at the Old Ämmässuo landfill (Finland) by means of LCA-modeling (EASEWASTE)

The current landfill gas (LFG) management (based on flaring and utilization for heat generation of the collected gas) and three potential future gas management options (LFG flaring, heat generation and combined heat and power generation) for the Old Ämmässuo landfill (Espoo, Finland) were evaluated by life-cycle assessment modeling. The evaluation accounts for all resource utilization and emissions to the environment related to the gas generation and management for a life-cycle time horizon of 100 yr. The assessment criteria comprise standard impact categories (global warming, photo-chemical ozone formation, stratospheric ozone depletion, acidification and nutrient enrichment) and toxicity-related impact categories (human toxicity via soil, via water and via air, eco-toxicity in soil and in water chronic).The results of the life-cycle impact assessment show that disperse emissions of LFG from the landfill surface determine the highest potential impacts in terms of global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and human toxicity via soil. Conversely, the impact potentials estimated for other categories are numerically-negative when the collected LFG is utilized for energy generation, demonstrating that net environmental savings can be obtained. Such savings are proportional to the amount of gas utilized for energy generation and the gas energy recovery efficiency achieved, which thus have to be regarded as key parameters. As a result, the overall best performance is found for the heat generation option – as it has the highest LFG utilization/energy recovery rates – whereas the worst performance is estimated for the LFG flaring option, as no LFG is here utilized for energy generation.Therefore, to reduce the environmental burdens caused by the current gas management strategy, more LFG should be used for energy generation. This inherently requires a superior LFG capture rate that, in addition, would reduce fugitive emissions of LFG from the landfill surface, bringing further environmental benefits.     

中外能源形势及电力发展状况研究

介绍了世界主要发达国家的能源形势、能源政策以及电力发展状况,分析了国内外能源形势、政策与电力工业发展之间的关系,提出在我国能源利用及电力发展方面应加大天然气发电以及IGCC发电力度、提高能源的利用效率以及工业用电效率、大力发展可再生能源发电、加快核电发展等政策建议。     

Scenarios simulation on municipal plastic waste generation of different functional areas of Beijing

With the rapid economic development of China and the improvement of people’s living standards, municipal plastic waste (MPW) has increasingly become a major problem for cities in China. The generation of plastic waste is a system which integrates social, economical and environment factors. There is a certain guiding significance for the determination of urban plastic waste management priorities to research MPW generation with the background of the regional development of the city. As the capital of China, Beijing develops with a typically regional characteristic. This article establishes a generation system model for MPW by the method of system dynamics, and takes Beijing as an example to simulate and forecast the MPW generations of four functional areas on scenarios. The data used in the model were mainly obtained from statistical materials and on-site survey. The results showed a better regulating effect of the generation of MPW of Beijing under an integrated control scenario. In terms of space, MPW generation of the urban function extended districts generated the largest amount of plastic waste, with the largest growth rate; the proportion of MPW generation of the new districts of urban development increased significantly. In terms of generation source, the resident communities source generated the largest amount of the MPW. Based on the results, some suggestions on MPW management are put forward.     

Non-hazardous waste generation characteristics and recycling practices in Saskatchewan and Manitoba,Canada

The paper presents the results on the analysis of non-hazardous waste generation characteristics and recycling practices in Saskatchewan (SK) and Manitoba (MB) using the biennial waste reports published by Statistic Canada. The objectives are to examine the waste generation rates from both residential and non-residential sources from 1998 to 2010, and to evaluate the effectiveness of their recycling programs and regulations. In spite of the many similarities between the provinces, MB on average generated 17.5 % more residential waste than SK, and about 15 % less non-residential waste than SK during the study period. It appears that MB waste generation characteristics were very different from SK and the rest of Canada. The amount of MSW generation in MB was, to a certain degree, independent from the economic factors. Assuming status quos conditions, the linear models predicted that the per capita MSW generations in MB would be about 33 % lower than SK in 2020. Data from this study suggest that (1) curbside recycling programs and (2) pay-as-you-throw collection systems may be important factors for increasing diversion rate in SK. It is also found that the non-residential waste generation in Canada was substantially larger than the residential waste generation during the 13-year period.     

Path analysis of factors influencing household solid waste generation: a case study of Xiamen Island,China

Comprehensive study of the factors influencing household solid waste (HSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for exploring the generation mechanism and forecasting future dynamics of HSW. A case study of Xiamen Island, China was employed to reveal the direct and indirect effects of demographic/socioeconomic factors on solid waste generation at the urban household scale. Based on a face-to-face questionnaire and two-stage survey of solid waste generation, a path analysis model was built. Results showed that the proposed path model exhibited good fit indices. Family size and dinning-at-home rate (DR), whose coefficients were ?0.40 and 0.43, respectively, were the two major factors influencing HSW directly. Moreover, family size, education level, employment rate and age structure played different degrees of indirect effects on HSW generation through respective paths, which should not be ignored. In terms of total effects, coefficients of family size, DR and employment rate were ?0.46, 0.43 and ?0.37, respectively, which were three most dominant factors influencing HSW generation. As for waste composition, organic waste was the most representative of HSW dynamics, and was the most sensitive to impact by the factors studied. Quantitative results of this study have important policy implications for sustainable municipal solid waste management.     

Searching quality data for municipal solid waste planning

Effective waste reduction and recycling is predicated upon credible data on refuse generation and disposal. Despite improvements in the quality of data for municipal solid wastes (MSW) disposal, dependable generation and recycling statistics to support planning, regulation and administration are lacking. The available aggregates on national waste production from two sources do not conform to each other and fail to serve the requirements of local solid waste planning. As recycling estimates will be difficult to discern, the collection of generation data based on weighing waste samples at generator sites has been portrayed as the key for developing sustainable local databases. The coefficients developed from the databases for the various categories of residential, commercial, industrial and institutional wastes can be used as variables for waste generation models.     

A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City,China

Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.     

Assessment of solid waste generation and greenhouse gas emission potential in Yangon city,Myanmar

Due to booming economy, growing population and rapid urbanization, solid waste generation in the cities of developing countries has significantly increased. Yangon is the largest and most densely populated city, with over five million residents in Myanmar. Open dumping is the major waste disposal method and recycling sector remains at an early development stage. With increasing waste generation, current waste management activities in Yangon have significant environmental impacts. Therefore, the study developed two linear models to predict annual solid waste generation, regarding per capita waste generation, population growth scenarios, literacy rates and gross domestic products. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Institute for Global Environmental Strategies calculation methods were used for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission prediction from recycling, waste transportation and final disposal sites (FDSs). As a result, the total annual waste generation and GHG emission in 2015 may double over the next decade. Two major FDSs, Htawe Chaung and Hteinpin, may contribute waste disposal of 272–797 kilotons per year and emit 177–518 Gg of CO₂-eq per year by 2025. The assessment of annual solid waste generation and GHG emission potential may offer advantages in assisting development of waste management plans in Yangon.     

Modeling of urban solid waste management system: the case of Dhaka city

This paper presents a system dynamics computer model to predict solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation from solid waste and to assess the needs for waste management of the urban city of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Simulated results show that solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation potential from solid waste increase with time. Population, uncleared waste, untreated waste, composite index and public concern are projected to increase with time for Dhaka city. Simulated results also show that increasing the budget for collection capacity alone does not improve environmental quality; rather an increased budget is required for both collection and treatment of solid wastes of Dhaka city. Finally, this model can be used as a computer laboratory for urban solid waste management (USWM) policy analysis.     

Household hazardous waste quantification,characterization and management in China’s cities: A case study of Suzhou

A four-stage systematic tracking survey of 240 households was conducted from the summer of 2011 to the spring of 2012 in a Chinese city of Suzhou to determine the characteristics of household hazardous waste (HHW) generated by the city. Factor analysis and a regression model were used to study the major driving forces of HHW generation. The results indicate that the rate of HHW generation was 6.16 (0.16–31.74, 95% CI) g/person/day, which accounted for 2.23% of the household solid waste stream. The major waste categories contributing to total HHW were home cleaning products (21.33%), medicines (17.67%) and personal care products (15.19%). Packaging and containers (one-way) and products (single-use) accounted for over 80% of total HHW generation, implying a considerable potential to mitigate HHW generation by changing the packaging design and materials used by manufacturing enterprises. Strong correlations were observed between HHW generation (g/person/day) and the driving forces group of “household structure” and “consumer preferences” (among which the educational level of the household financial manager has the greatest impact). Furthermore, the HHW generation stream in Suzhou suggested the influence of another set of variables, such as local customs and culture, consumption patterns, and urban residential life-style. This study emphasizes that HHW should be categorized at its source (residential households) as an important step toward controlling the HHW hazards of Chinese cities.     

Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach--system dynamics modeling--for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool--Stella. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues.     

Current status of waste to power generation in Japan and resulting reduction of carbon dioxide emissions

We discuss the current status of waste to power generation (WPG) in Japan and various scenarios involving indirect reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by WPG. The number of WPG facilities domestically as of 2005 was 286. Power generation capacity attained 1,515 MW and power generation 7,050 GWh/year. This amount substitutes energy otherwise acquired from natural resources such as fossil fuels in thermal power plants. If the basic unit of carbon dioxide is 0.555 kg-CO₂/kWh, then the corresponding carbon dioxide emission reduction is calculated to be 3.9 million tons, equivalent to 26.7% of the 14.6 million tons emitted by municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWI) in 2005. Using various existing technological options, the power generation efficiency could reach more than 20% in MSWI facilities with capacity of 300 tons/day, although present efficiency is only 12.0%. If about 85% of MSW were incinerated in MSWI with power generation efficiency of 20% as a feasible assumption, the total power generation and the corresponding carbon dioxide reduction would be 16,540 GWh/year and 9.18 million tons, respectively, equivalent to 62.7% of the carbon dioxide emitted by MSWI. Also, the ratio of the additional reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by WPG to the total additional reduction (20,000 ktons/year) in Japan during the first commitment period would be 26.3%, suggesting that promotion of WPG in MSWI is an effective option for prevention of global warming.     

Characterization of urban solid waste in Chihuahua, Mexico

The characterization of urban solid waste generation is fundamental for adequate decision making in the management strategy of urban solid waste in a city. The objective of this study is to characterize the waste generated in the households of Chihuahua city, and to compare the results obtained in areas of the city with three different socioeconomic levels. In order to identify the different socioeconomic trends in waste generation and characterization, 560 samples of solid waste were collected during 1 week from 80 households in Chihuahua and were hand sorted and classified into 15 weighted fractions. The average waste generation in Chihuahua calculated in this study was 0.676 kg per capita per day in April 2006. The main fractions were: organic (48%), paper (16%) and plastic (12%). Results show an increased waste generation associated with the socioeconomic level. The characterization in amount and composition of urban waste is the first step needed for the successful implementation of an integral waste management system.     

发达国家垃圾焚烧发电经验及借鉴

介绍了发达国家垃圾焚烧发电技术,其具有较好的社会、环境和经济效益,提出我国应借鉴发达国家经验,从技术、管理、政策方面加强垃圾焚烧发电工作。     

Investigation of hydrogen generation from municipal solid waste incineration fly ash

Hydrogen generation from municipal solid waste incineration fly ash was investigated to understand the influences of contacting method, kinds of contact solution, liquid to solid ratio, and particle size distribution of materials. Redox properties of materials and hydrogen generation were also studied. The largest quantity of gas generated in contact with water was 29.1 ml/g-ash, most of which was hydrogen. Fluidized bed fly ash generated more gas than stoker fly ash. In order to calculate the hydrogen generation potential (the maximum quantity of gas generated in contact with water), a novel system using a Y-shaped test tube and NaOH was utilized. This method gives values which are related to the quantity of generated gas in contact with water. A relationship between the aluminum content and hydrogen generation potential was observed, especially for fluidized bed fly ash. The reducing potential of fluidized bed fly ash was higher than that of stoker fly ash. Only fluidized bed fly ash showed a positive correlation between aluminum content and reducing potential, and between reducing potential and hydrogen generation potential. These results suggest that fluidized bed fly ash contains more Al⁰ than stoker fly ash. Received: September 11, 1998 / Accepted: March 19, 1999