Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change

Climate change is already producing ecological, social, and economic impacts on fisheries, and these effects are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. Fisheries governance and regulations can alter socio-ecological resilience to climate change impacts via harvest control rules and incentives driving fisher behavior, yet there are no syntheses or conceptual frameworks for examining how institutions and their regulatory approaches can alter fisheries resilience to climate change. We identify nine key climate resilience criteria for fisheries socio-ecological systems (SES), defining resilience as the ability of the coupled system of interacting social and ecological components (i.e., the SES) to absorb change while avoiding transformation into a different undesirable state. We then evaluate the capacity of four fisheries regulatory systems that vary in their degree of property rights, including open access, limited entry, and two types of rights-based management, to increase or inhibit resilience. Our exploratory assessment of evidence in the literature suggests that these regulatory regimes vary widely in their ability to promote resilient fisheries, with rights-based approaches appearing to offer more resilience benefits in many cases, but detailed characteristics of the regulatory instruments are fundamental.     

Phosphorus use-efficiency of agriculture and food system in the US

The rapid increase in human mobilization of phosphorus has raised concerns on both its supply security and its impact on the environment. Increasing the efficiency of phosphorus use is an approach to mitigate the adverse impacts associated with phosphorus consumption. This study estimates the life-cycle phosphorus use-efficiency of the US food system. A framework for accounting phosphorus stocks and flows is developed, and the account was populated with data. A map of phosphorus stocks and flows around the US food system is drawn and phosphorus use-efficiency was calculated. The results show that only 15% of the total phosphorus extracted from nature for the provision of food is eventually ingested by humans and the rest is lost to the environment. Major losses occur during the livestock, meat and dairy production and crop cultivation stage, where about 66% of the total phosphorus extracted is lost to the environment. The results also show that other losses of phosphorus including household food waste, mining waste, and fertilizer manufacturing waste are not negligible, which constitute about 19% of the total phosphorus extracted for food purpose. A data quality assessment and sensitivity analysis was performed to identify data quality hotspots and to envisage effective measures to improving phosphorus use-efficiency. Improving yields of livestock and crop cultivation without additional phosphorus input and reducing household food waste are shown to be effective measures to improve life-cycle phosphorus use-efficiency. The results highlight the need of a concerted effort by all entities along the life-cycle for efficient use of phosphorus.     

COVID-19: From health crises to food security anxiety and policy implications

Like the rest of the world, African countries are reeling from the health, economic and social effects of COVID-19. The continent’s governments have responded by imposing rigorous lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus. The various lockdown measures are undermining food security, because stay at home orders have among others, threatened food production for a continent that relies heavily on agriculture as the bedrock of the economy. This article draws on quantitative data collected by the GeoPoll, and, from these data, assesses the effect of concern about the local spread and economic impact of COVID-19 on food worries. Qualitative data comprising 12 countries south of the Sahara reveal that lockdowns have created anxiety over food security as a health, economic and human rights/well-being issue. By applying a probit model, we find that concern about the local spread of COVID-19 and economic impact of the virus increases the probability of food worries. Governments have responded with various efforts to support the neediest. By evaluating the various policies rolled out we advocate for a feminist economics approach that necessitates greater use of data analytics to predict the likely impacts of intended regulatory relief responses during the recovery process and post-COVID-19.     

Contribution of women’s fisheries substantial,but overlooked,in Timor-Leste

A greater understanding of gendered roles in fisheries is necessary to value the often-hidden roles that women play in fisheries and households. We examine women’s contributions to household food and income using focus group discussions, market surveys, and landings data in six communities in Timor-Leste. Women were actively fishing more days per month than men. Gleaning was the most frequent activity and 100% of trips returned with catch for food and/or income. Mollusc and crab catches were common and exploitation appeared targeted on a dynamic reappraisal of changing food values and changing estimates of group needs. With as many as 80% of households in coastal areas involved in fishing, and at least 50% of women fishing, this highlights the current lack of women’s engagement as a critical gap in fisheries management approaches. The current androcentric dialogue limits social-ecological understanding of these systems and the potential for their effective stewardship.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01335-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Crop Yield Gaps in Cameroon

Although food crop yields per hectare have generally been increasing in Cameroon since 1961, the food price crisis of 2008 and the ensuing social unrest and fatalities raised concerns about the country’s ability to meet the food needs of its population. This study examines the country’s potential for increasing crop yields and food production to meet this food security challenge. Fuzzy set theory is used to develop a biophysical spatial suitability model for different crops, which in turn is employed to ascertain whether crop production is carried out in biophysically suited areas. We use linear regression to examine the trend of yield development over the last half century. On the basis of yield data from experimental stations and farmers’ fields we assess the yield gap for major food crops. We find that yields have generally been increasing over the last half century and that agricultural policies can have significant effects on them. To a large extent, food crops are cultivated in areas that are biophysically suited for their cultivation, meaning that the yield gap is not a problem of biophysical suitability. Notwithstanding, there are significantly large yield gaps between actual yields on farmers’ farms and maximum attainable yields from research stations. We conclude that agronomy and policies are likely to be the reasons for these large yield gaps. A key challenge to be addressed in closing the yield gaps is that of replenishing and properly managing soil nutrients.     

Sustaining food self-sufficiency of a nation: The case of Sri Lankan rice production and related water and fertilizer demands

Rising human demand and climatic variability have created greater uncertainty regarding global food trade and its effects on the food security of nations. To reduce reliance on imported food, many countries have focused on increasing their domestic food production in recent years. With clear goals for the complete self-sufficiency of rice production, Sri Lanka provides an ideal case study for examining the projected growth in domestic rice supply, how this compares to future national demand, and what the associated impacts from water and fertilizer demands may be. Using national rice statistics and estimates of intensification, this study finds that improvements in rice production can feed 25.3 million Sri Lankans (compared to a projected population of 23.8 million people) by 2050. However, to achieve this growth, consumptive water use and nitrogen fertilizer application may need to increase by as much as 69 and 23 %, respectively. This assessment demonstrates that targets for maintaining self-sufficiency should better incorporate avenues for improving resource use efficiency.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0720-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The short-term effects of a routine poisoning campaign on the movements and detectability of a social top-predator

Top-predators can be important components of resilient ecosystems, but they are still controlled in many places to mitigate a variety of economic, environmental and/or social impacts. Lethal control is often achieved through the broad-scale application of poisoned baits. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of such lethal control on subsequent movements and behaviour of survivors is an important pre-requisite for interpreting the efficacy and ecological outcomes of top-predator control. In this study, we use GPS tracking collars to investigate the fine-scale and short-term movements of dingoes (Canis lupus dingo and other wild dogs) in response to a routine poison-baiting program as an example of how a common, social top-predator can respond (behaviourally) to moderate levels of population reduction. We found no consistent control-induced differences in home range size or location, daily distance travelled, speed of travel, temporal activity patterns or road/trail usage for the seven surviving dingoes we monitored immediately before and after a typical lethal control event. These data suggest that the spatial behaviour of surviving dingoes was not altered in ways likely to affect their detectability, and if control-induced changes in dingoes' ecological function did occur, these may not be related to altered spatial behaviour or movement patterns.     

Use of a food web model to evaluate the factors responsible for high PCB fish concentrations in Lake Ellasjøen, a high Arctic Lake

Background, aim, and scope

Lake Ellasjøen, located in the Norwegian high arctic, contains the highest concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) ever recorded in fish and sediment from high arctic lakes, and concentrations are more than 10 times greater than in nearby Lake Øyangen. These elevated concentrations in Ellasjøen have been previously attributed, in part, to contaminant loadings from seabirds that use Ellasjøen, but not Øyangen, as a resting area. However, other factors, such as food web structure, organism growth rate, weight, lipid content, lake morphology, and nutrient inputs from the seabird guano, also differ between the two systems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relative influence of these factors as explanatory variables for the higher PCB fish concentrations in Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen, using both a food web model and empirical data.

Methods

The model is based on previously developed models but parameterized for Lakes Ellasjøen and Øyangen using measured data wherever possible. The model was applied to five representative PCB congeners (PCB 105, 118, 138, 153, and 180) using measured sediment and water concentrations as input data and evaluated with previously collected food web data.

Results

Modeled concentrations are within a factor of two of measured concentrations in 60% and 40% of the cases in Lakes Ellasjøen and Øyangen, respectively, and within a factor of 10 in 100% of the cases in both lakes. In many cases, this is comparable to the variability associated with the data as well as the efficacy of the predictions of other food web model applications.

Discussion

We next used the model to quantify the relative importance of five major differences between Ellasjøen and Øyangen by replacing variables representing each of these factors in the Ellasjøen model with those from Øyangen, in separate simulations. The model predicts that the elevated PCB concentrations in Ellasjøen water and sediment account for 49%–58% of differences in modeled fish PCB concentrations between lakes. These elevated sediment and, to a lesser extent, water concentrations in Ellasjøen are due to PCB loadings from seabird guano. However, sediment–water fugacity ratios of PCBs are consistently greater in Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen, which suggests that internal lake processes also contribute to differences in sediment and water concentrations. We hypothesize that the nutrients associated with guano influence sediment–water fugacity ratios of PCBs by increasing the stock of pelagic algae. As both these algae and the guano settle, their organic carbon content is degraded faster than PCBs, which causes an extra magnification step in Ellasjøen before these detrital particles are consumed by benthic organisms, which are in turn consumed by fish. The model predicts that the remaining ～50% of the differences in PCB concentrations observed between the fish of these lakes are due to other subtle differences in their food web structures.

Conclusions

In conclusion, based on the results of a food web model, we found that the most dominant factors influencing the higher PCB fish concentrations in Lake Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen are the higher sediment and water concentrations in Ellasjøen, caused by seabird guano. Together, sediment and water are predicted to account for 49%–58% of differences in fish concentrations between lakes. Although seabird guano provides a source of nutrients to the lake, in addition to contaminants, empirical data and indirect model results suggest that nutrients are not leading to decreased bioaccumulation, in contrast to what has been observed in temperate, pelagic food webs.

Recommendations and perspectives

The results of this study emphasize the importance of considering even small differences in food web structure when comparing bioaccumulation in two lakes; although the food web structures of Ellasjøen and Øyangen differ only slightly, the model predicts that these differences account for most of the remaining ～50% of the differences in PCB fish concentrations between the two lakes. This study further demonstrates the utility of food web models as we were able to predict and tease apart the influence of various factors responsible for the elevated concentrations in the fish from Lake Ellasjøen, which would have been difficult using the field data alone.     

Opening access to the black box: The need for reporting on the global phosphorus supply chain

Phosphorus (P) is an essential macronutrient in agriculture; however, lack of reporting makes its supply chain a black box. By using literature synthesis on the P challenge, we identify four areas where the reporting process is problematic: P reserves and resources; P losses along the supply chain; P externalities; and access to data. We find that in these areas, the reporting system is inconsistent, inaccurate, incomplete, fragmented and non-transparent. We use systems analysis to discuss implications of reporting on the sustainability of the P supply chain. We find that reporting is essential for the achievement of global P governance and the human right to adequate food. It can also inform decision makers and other impacted stakeholders on policies on agriculture, food security, pollution and international conflict. An improved P reporting process also allows a better evaluation of global sustainability commitments such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.     

When Ecosystem Services Crash: Preparing for Big,Fast, Patchy Climate Change

Assessments of adaptation options generally focus on incremental, homogeneous ecosystem responses to climate even though climate change impacts can be big, fast, and patchy across a region. Regional drought-induced tree die-off in semiarid woodlands highlights how an ecosystem crash fundamentally alters most ecosystem services and poses management challenges. Building on previous research showing how choice of location is linked to adaptive capacity and vulnerability, we developed a framework showing how the options for retaining desired ecosystem services in the face of sudden crashes depend on how portable the service is and whether the stakeholder is flexible with regard to the location where they receive their services. Stakeholders using portable services, or stakeholders who can move to other locations to obtain services, may be more resilient to ecosystem crashes. Our framework suggests that entering into cooperative networks with regionally distributed stakeholders is key to building resilience to big, fast, patchy crashes.     

Anticipatory governance for social-ecological resilience

Anticipation is increasingly central to urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to the global economic crisis. Anticipatory practices are coming to the forefront of political, organizational, and citizens’ society. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with public demand for insights into anticipatory practices, their risks and uses. Where research exists, it is deeply fragmented. This paper seeks to identify how anticipation is defined and understood in the literature and to explore the role of anticipatory practice to address individual, social, and global challenges. We use a resilience lens to examine these questions. We illustrate how varying forms of anticipatory governance are enhanced by multi-scale regional networks and technologies and by the agency of individuals, drawing from an empirical case study on regional water governance of Mälaren, Sweden. Finally, we discuss how an anticipatory approach can inform adaptive institutions, decision making, strategy formation, and societal resilience.     

Impacts of Nomad Sedentarization on Social and Ecological Systems at Multiple Scales in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region,China

China’s government is now promoting the Nomad Sedentarization Project (NSP) in large areas of grassland as a solution for ecological restoration and poverty alleviation. To examine the effects of this policy, we conducted in-depth interviews at two of the project’s sites and examined the social and ecological systems at village, county, and catchment scales in Jinghe County of Xinjiang. We found that (1) the NSP in one village greatly improved the household standard of living and changed their resource utilization modes; (2) the success in this village can be attributed to resources imported from the social and ecological systems at larger scales, and could not be repeated in a second nearby village with different constraints; and (3) the NSP is poorly adapted to local ecosystem characteristics, and may therefore have negative impacts at larger scales. To avoid these problems, holistic assessments are necessary to judge the NSP’s impacts on social and ecological systems at multiple scales, and the program must be implemented cautiously to account for the potential risks in ecologically vulnerable areas.     

Modeling and interpreting bioavailability of organic contaminant mixtures in subsurface environments

Bioavailability often controls the fate of organic contaminants in surface and subsurface aquatic environments. Bioavailability can be limited by sorption, mass transfer, and intrinsic biodegradation potential and can be further altered by the presence of other compounds. This paper reviews current perspectives on the processes influencing subsurface contaminant bioavailability, how these processes are modeled, and how the relative role of the various processes can be assessed through bioavailability indices. Although these processes are increasingly well understood, the use of sophisticated models and indices often are precluded by an inability to estimate the many parameters that are associated with complex models. Nonetheless, the proper representation of sorption, mass transfer, biodegradation, and co-solute effects can be critical in predicting bio-attenuation. The influence of these processes on contaminant fate is illustrated with numerical simulations for the simultaneous degradation of toluene (growth substrate) and trichloroethylene (nongrowth cometabolite) in hypothetical, aerobic, solid-water systems. The results show how the relative impacts on contaminant fate of the model's various component processes depends upon system conditions, including co-solute concentrations. Slow biodegradation rates increase the inhibition effects of a cometabolite and suppress the rate enhancement effects of a growth substrate. Irrespective of co-solute effects, contaminant fate is less sensitive to biodegradation processes in systems with strong sorption and slow desorption rates. Bioavailability indices can be used to relate these findings and to help identify appropriate modeling simplifications. In general, however, there remains a need to redefine such indices in order that bioavailability concepts can be better incorporated into site characterization, remediation design, and regulatory oversight.     

The Quadruple Squeeze: Defining the safe operating space for freshwater use to achieve a triply green revolution in the Anthropocene

Humanity has entered a new phase of sustainability challenges, the Anthropocene, in which human development has reached a scale where it affects vital planetary processes. Under the pressure from a quadruple squeeze—from population and development pressures, the anthropogenic climate crisis, the anthropogenic ecosystem crisis, and the risk of deleterious tipping points in the Earth system—the degrees of freedom for sustainable human exploitation of planet Earth are severely restrained. It is in this reality that a new green revolution in world food production needs to occur, to attain food security and human development over the coming decades. Global freshwater resources are, and will increasingly be, a fundamental limiting factor in feeding the world. Current water vulnerabilities in the regions in most need of large agricultural productivity improvements are projected to increase under the pressure from global environmental change. The sustainability challenge for world agriculture has to be set within the new global sustainability context. We present new proposed sustainability criteria for world agriculture, where world food production systems are transformed in order to allow humanity to stay within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries. In order to secure global resilience and thereby raise the chances of planet Earth to remain in the current desired state, conducive for human development on the long-term, these planetary boundaries need to be respected. This calls for a triply green revolution, which not only more than doubles food production in many regions of the world, but which also is environmentally sustainable, and invests in the untapped opportunities to use green water in rainfed agriculture as a key source of future productivity enhancement. To achieve such a global transformation of agriculture, there is a need for more innovative options for water interventions at the landscape scale, accounting for both green and blue water, as well as a new focus on cross-scale interactions, feed-backs and risks for unwanted regime shifts in the agro-ecological landscape.     

Bio-Ethanol Production from Non-Food Parts of Cassava (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Manihot esculenta</Emphasis> Crantz)

Global climate issues and a looming energy crisis put agriculture under pressure in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate adaptation measures must entail sustainable development benefits, and growing crops for food as well as energy may be a solution, removing people from hunger and poverty without compromising the environment. The present study investigated the feasibility of using non-food parts of cassava for energy production and the promising results revealed that at least 28% of peels and stems comprise dry matter, and 10 g feedstock yields >8.5 g sugar, which in turn produced >60% ethanol, with pH ≈ 2.85, 74-84% light transmittance and a conductivity of 368 mV, indicating a potential use of cassava feedstock for ethanol production. Thus, harnessing cassava for food as well as ethanol production is deemed feasible. Such a system would, however, require supportive policies to acquire a balance between food security and fuel.     

Inferring chemical effects on carbon flows in aquatic food webs: Methodology and case study

The majority of ecotoxicological enclosure experiments monitor species abundances at different chemical concentrations. Here, we present a new modelling approach that estimates changes in food web flows from such data and show that population- and food web level effects are revealed that are not apparent from abundance data alone. For the case of cypermethrin in freshwater enclosures, photosynthesis and excretion (d⁻¹) of phytoplankton at 3.643 μg L⁻¹ cypermethrin were 30% lower and 100% higher than in the control, respectively. The ingestion rate of mesozooplankton (d⁻¹) was 6 times higher in the treated enclosures than in the control as food concentration increased with insecticide exposure. With increasing cypermethrin concentrations, nanoflagellates progressively relied on phytoplankton as their main food source, which rendered the food web less stable. We conclude that this tool has excellent potential to analyse the wealth of enclosure data as it only needs species abundance and general constraints.     

The Impact of First-Generation Biofuels on the Depletion of the Global Phosphorus Reserve

The large majority of biofuels to date is "first-generation" biofuel made from agricultural commodities. All first-generation biofuel production systems require phosphorus (P) fertilization. P is an essential plant nutrient, yet global reserves are finite. We argue that committing scarce P to biofuel production involves a trade-off between climate change mitigation and future food production. We examine biofuel production from seven types of feedstock, and find that biofuels at present consume around 2% of the global inorganic P fertilizer production. For all examined biofuels, with the possible exception of sugarcane, the contribution to P depletion exceeds the contribution to mitigating climate change. The relative benefits of biofuels can be increased through enhanced recycling of P, but high increases in P efficiency are required to balance climate change mitigation and P depletion impacts. We conclude that, with the current production systems, the production of first-generation biofuels compromises food production in the future.     

The Predatory Bird Monitoring Scheme: identifying chemical risks to top predators in Britain

The Predatory Bird Monitoring Scheme (PBMS) is a long term (>40 y), UK-wide, exposure monitoring scheme that determines the concentration of selected pesticides and pollutants in the livers and eggs of predatory birds. This paper describes how the PBMS works, and in particular highlights some of the key scientific and policy drivers for monitoring contaminants in predatory birds and describes the specific aims, scope, and methods of the PBMS. We also present previously unpublished data that illustrates how the PBMS has been used to demonstrate the success of mitigation measures in reversing chemical-mediated impacts; identify and evaluate chemical threats to species of high conservation value; and finally to inform and refine monitoring methodologies. In addition, we discuss how such schemes can also address wider conservation needs.     

Is tourism damaging ecosystems in the Andes? Current knowledge and an agenda for future research

Despite the popularity of tourism and recreation in the Andes in South America and the regions conservation value, there is limited research on the ecological impacts of these types of anthropogenic use. Using a systematic quantitative literature review method, we found 47 recreation ecology studies from the Andes, 25 of which used an experimental design. Most of these were from the Southern Andes in Argentina (13 studies) or Chile (eight studies) with only four studies from the Northern Andes. These studies documented a range of impacts on vegetation, birds and mammals; including changes in plant species richness, composition and vegetation cover and the tolerance of wildlife of visitor use. There was little research on the impacts of visitors on soils and aquatic systems and for some ecoregions in the Andes. We identify research priorities across the region that will enhance management strategies to minimise visitor impacts in Andean ecosystems.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0550-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Do wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus L.) use food selection as a means to reduce heavy metal intake?

Food preference of wood mice from two with heavy metals polluted sites and two unpolluted sites was tested under laboratory and field conditions with two-way choice experiments. In the laboratory, wood mice preferred to eat acorns from unpolluted sites over acorns from polluted sites. Previous experience with polluted food had no influence on food choice. Preference was negatively related to acorn metal content. Furthermore, the nutrient content of the acorn endosperm was consistently lower in polluted sites. We therefore conclude that wood mice used absolute metal concentration in the acorn, nutrient content, or both as a food selection cue. The results of the laboratory experiment could not be confirmed under field conditions. We hypothesized that search time constraints due to the presence of predators, competitors and/or other stress factors in the field have prevented the mice to forage selectively.