Climate Change and Population Growth in Timor Leste: Implications for Food Security

The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5–3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.     

Climate Variability and Environmental Stress in the Sudan-Sahel Zone of West Africa

Environmental change in the Sudan-Sahel region of West Africa (SSWA) has been much debated since the droughts of the 1970s. In this article we assess climate variability and environmental stress in the region. Households in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria were asked about climatic changes and their perceptions were compared across north–south and west–east rainfall gradients. More than 80% of all households found that rainfall had decreased, especially in the wettest areas. Increases in wind speeds and temperature were perceived by an overall 60–80% of households. Contrary to household perceptions, observed rainfall patterns showed an increasing trend over the past 20 years. However, August rainfall declined, and could therefore potentially explain the contrasting negative household perceptions of rainfall trends. Most households reported degradation of soils, water resources, vegetation, and fauna, but more so in the 500–900 mm zones. Adaptation measures to counter environmental degradation included use of manure, reforestation, soil and water conservation, and protection of fauna and vegetation. The results raise concerns for future environmental management in the region, especially in the 500–900 mm zones and the western part of SSWA.     

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922–2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0690-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Effect of catchment land use and soil type on the concentration,quality, and bacterial degradation of riverine dissolved organic matter

We studied the effects of catchment characteristics (soil type and land use) on the concentration and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in river water and on the bacterial degradation of terrestrial DOM. The share of organic soil was the strongest predictor of high concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (DOC, DON, and DOP, respectively), and was linked to DOM quality. Soil type was more important than land use in determining the concentration and quality of riverine DOM. On average, 5–9 % of the DOC and 45 % of the DON were degraded by the bacterial communities within 2–3 months. Simultaneously, the proportion of humic-like compounds in the DOM pool increased. Bioavailable DON accounted for approximately one-third of the total bioavailable dissolved nitrogen, and thus, terrestrial DON can markedly contribute to the coastal plankton dynamics and support the heterotrophic food web.     

Mercury Levels in Pristine and Gold Mining Impacted Aquatic Ecosystems of Suriname, South America

Mercury levels in sediment and predatory fish were measured for 53 localities in Suriname. The average mercury level in bottom sediment surpassed the Canadian standard for sediment in most localities, except the coastal plains. Of the predatory fish, 41 % had a mercury level above the European Union standard for human consumption of 0.5 μg g⁻¹. Highest mercury levels were found in fish from the Brokopondo Reservoir and from the Upper Coppename River. High levels of mercury in fish in pristine areas are explained by atmospheric transportation of mercury with the northeastern trade winds followed by wet deposition. Contrary to gold mining areas, where mercury is bound to drifting sediments, in “pristine” areas the mercury is freely available for bio-accumulation and uptake. Impacts on piscivorous reptiles, birds, and mammals are unknown, but likely to be negative.     

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes

Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager’s sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.

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The impact of climate change and aquatic salinization on mangrove species in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

This paper investigates the possible impacts of climate change on aquatic salinity and mangrove species in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. The impact analysis combines the salinity tolerance ranges of predominant mangrove species with aquatic salinity measures in 27 scenarios of climate change by 2050. The estimates indicate significant overall losses for Heritiera fomes; substantial gains for Excoecaria agallocha; modest changes for Avicennia alba, A. marina, A. officinalis, Ceriops decandra, and Sonneratia apetala; and mixed results for species combinations. Changes in mangrove stocks are likely to change the prospects for forest-based livelihoods. The implications for neighboring communities are assessed by computing changes in high-value mangrove species for the five sub-districts in the Sundarbans. The results of the impact analysis indicate highly varied patterns of gain and loss across the five sub-districts. Overall, however, the results suggest that salinity-induced mangrove migration will have a strongly regressive impact on the value of timber stocks because of the loss of highest value timber species, Heritiera fomes. In addition, the augmented potential for honey production will likely increase conflicts between humans and wildlife in the region.     

Improving Oxygen Conditions in the Deeper Parts of Bornholm Sea by Pumped Injection of Winter Water

Vertical diffusivity and oxygen consumption in the basin water, the water below the sill level at about 59 m depth, have been estimated by applying budget methods to monitoring data from hydrographical stations BY4 and BY5 for periods without water renewal. From the vertical diffusivity, the mean rate of work against the buoyancy forces below 65 m depth is estimated to about 0.10 mW m⁻². This is slightly higher than published values for East Gotland Sea. The horizontally averaged vertical diffusivity κ can be approximated by the expression κ = a₀N⁻¹ where N is the buoyancy frequency and a₀ ≈ 1.25 × 10⁻⁷ m² s⁻², which is similar to values for a₀ used for depths below the halocline in Baltic proper circulation models for long-term simulations. The contemporary mean rate of oxygen consumption in the basin water is about 75 g O₂ m⁻² year⁻¹, which corresponds to an oxidation of 28 g C m⁻² year⁻¹. The oxygen consumption in the Bornholm Basin doubled from the 1970s to the 2000s, which qualitatively explains the observed increasing frequency and vertical extent of anoxia and hypoxia in the basin water in records from the end of the 1950s to present time. A horizontally averaged vertical advection–diffusion model of the basin water is used to calculate the effects on stratification and oxygen concentration by a forced pump-driven vertical convection. It is shown that the residence time of the basin water may be reduced by pumping down and mixing the so-called winter water into the deepwater. With the present rate of oxygen consumption, a pumped flux of about 25 km³ year⁻¹ would be sufficient to keep the oxygen concentration in the deepwater above 2 mL O₂ L⁻¹.     

Total and Methylmercury in Soft Tissues of White-Tailed Eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) and Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) Collected in Poland

Mercury (Hg) contamination in piscivorous birds, especially methylmercury (MeHg), has been drawing much attention worldwide in regard to its bioaccumulation and biomagnification in food chains. In this study on Hg in the soft tissues of white-tailed eagles (n = 22) and ospreys (n = 2) from Poland, total Hg (THg) range was 0.15–47.6 while MeHg range was 0.11–8.05 mg kg⁻¹ dry weight. In both species, median THg and MeHg concentrations were lower in the muscle and brain than in the liver and kidney. Median nephric residues were just under 3 and 5 mgTHg kg⁻¹ or 0.9 and 3.7 mgMeHg kg⁻¹ for white-tailed eagle and osprey, respectively. In Norwegian data from the 1970s and in our results, MeHg in the muscle of white-tailed eagle was ~60 % THg (%MeHg = MeHg/THg × 100), lower than in other piscivorous birds. A clear similarity in THg tissue levels was found between Polish and German populations of white-tailed eagles.     

Sustaining food self-sufficiency of a nation: The case of Sri Lankan rice production and related water and fertilizer demands

Rising human demand and climatic variability have created greater uncertainty regarding global food trade and its effects on the food security of nations. To reduce reliance on imported food, many countries have focused on increasing their domestic food production in recent years. With clear goals for the complete self-sufficiency of rice production, Sri Lanka provides an ideal case study for examining the projected growth in domestic rice supply, how this compares to future national demand, and what the associated impacts from water and fertilizer demands may be. Using national rice statistics and estimates of intensification, this study finds that improvements in rice production can feed 25.3 million Sri Lankans (compared to a projected population of 23.8 million people) by 2050. However, to achieve this growth, consumptive water use and nitrogen fertilizer application may need to increase by as much as 69 and 23 %, respectively. This assessment demonstrates that targets for maintaining self-sufficiency should better incorporate avenues for improving resource use efficiency.

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Oil Contamination in Ogoniland, Niger Delta

The study shows extensive oil contamination of rivers, creeks, and ground waters in Ogoniland, Nigeria. The levels found in the more contaminated sites are high enough to cause severe impacts on the ecosystem and human health: extractable petroleum hydrocarbons (EPHs) (>10-C40) in surface waters up to 7420 μg L⁻¹, drinking water wells show up to 42 200 μg L⁻¹, and benzene up to 9000 μg L⁻¹, more than 900 times the WHO guidelines. EPH concentrations in sediments were up to 17 900 mg kg⁻¹. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons concentrations reached 8.0 mg kg⁻¹, in the most contaminated sites. The contamination has killed large areas of mangroves. Although the natural conditions for degradation of petroleum hydrocarbons are favorable with high temperatures and relatively high rainfall, the recovery of contaminated areas is prevented due to the chronic character of the contamination. Oil spills of varying magnitude originates from facilities and pipelines; leaks from aging, dilapidated, and abandoned infrastructure; and from spills during transport and artisanal refining of stolen oil under very primitive conditions.

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The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0412-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Effect of climate change on fluxes of nitrogen from the Tovdal River basin, Norway, to adjoining marine areas

The mass transport model TEOTIL was used to project nitrate (NO3) fluxes from the Tovdal River basin, southernmost Norway, given four scenarios of climate change. Forests, uplands, and open water currently account for 90% of the NO3 flux. Climate scenarios for 2071-2100 suggest increased temperature by 2-4 degrees C and precipitation by 3-11%. Climate experiments and long-term monitoring were used to estimate future rates of nitrogen (N) leaching. More water will run through the terrestrial catchments during the winter but less will run in the spring. The annual NO3 flux from the Tovdal River to the adjoining Topdalsfjord is projected to remain unchanged, but with more NO3 delivered in the winter and less in the spring. Algal blooms in coastal waters can be expected to occur earlier in the year. Major sources of uncertainty are in the long-term fate of N stored in soil organic matter and the impacts of forest management.     

Linking Climate Trends to Population Dynamics in the Baltic Ringed Seal: Impacts of Historical and Future Winter Temperatures

A global trend of a warming climate may seriously affect species dependent on sea ice. We investigated the impact of climate on the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica), using historical and future climatological time series. Availability of suitable breeding ice is known to affect pup survival. We used detailed information on how winter temperatures affect the extent of breeding ice and a climatological model (RCA3) to project the expected effects on the Baltic ringed seal population. The population comprises of three sub-populations, and our simulations suggest that all of them will experience severely hampered growth rates during the coming 90 years. The projected 30 730 seals at the end of the twenty-first century constitutes only 16 % of the historical population size, and thus reduced ice cover alone will severely limit their growth rate. This adds burden to a species already haunted by other anthropogenic impacts.     

Options for Change in the Australian Energy Profile

Climate change is occurring largely as a result of increasing CO₂ emissions whose reduction requires greater efficiency in energy production and use and diversification of energy sources away from fossil fuels. These issues were central to the United Nation climate change discussions in Durban in December 2011 where it was agreed that a legally binding agreement to decrease greenhouse gas emissions should be reached by 2015. In the interim, nations were left with the agreement reached at the analogous 2009 Copenhagen and 2010 Cancun meetings that atmospheric CO₂ levels should be constrained to limit the global temperature rise to 2 °C. However, the route to this objective was largely left to individual nations to decide. It is within this context that options for reduction in the 95 % fossil fuel dependency and high CO₂ emissivity of the Australian energy profile using current technologies are considered. It is shown that electricity generation in particular presents significant options for changing to a less fossil fuel dependent and CO₂ emissive energy profile.     

Influences of salinity on the biokinetics of Cd, Se, and Zn in the intertidal mudskipper Periophthalmus cantonensis

The biokinetics (aqueous uptake, dietary assimilation, and elimination) of Cd, Se, and Zn in the intertidal mudskipper, Periophthalmus cantonensis, were examined at different acclimated salinities using the radiotracer technique. The dietary assimilation efficiency from ingested radiolabeled polychaetes was the highest for Se (32–40%), followed by Zn (5–7%) and Cd (2–3%), and was not influenced by salinity within a range of 10–30 psu. Uptake from the dissolved phase typically exhibited a linear pattern within the first 12 h of exposure, followed by a second slower uptake. The highest concentration factor (CF) was found for Zn, followed by Cd and Se. Differences in salinity did not significantly affect the CF of the three metals within the first 12 h, but the CFs were significantly higher at lower salinities (10–20 psu) than at the highest salinity (30 psu) by the end of 48 h exposure. Because the degrees to which the uptake of Se (a metalloid) and Cd/Zn were affected by salinity were comparable, we concluded that metal speciation as a result of salinity change was not important in leading to a change in metal CF. Physiological changes may be responsible for the increasing uptake at lowered salinity. The elimination rates of the three metals (0.01–0.06 d⁻¹) were not significantly affected by salinity, but Se was eliminated at a faster rate following aqueous uptake than following dietary ingestion. There was no consistent influence of exposure routes on Cd and Zn elimination. The accumulated Cd was mainly associated with the gut, whereas the muscle was the dominant target site for Se and Zn accumulation.     

The impact of climate change on the soil/moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils

The likely impact of climate change on the moisture regime of Scottish soils and consequently on agriculture and land use has been addressed using a novel Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach. Current estimates of changes in summer precipitation by the year 2030 are 0% with an associated uncertainty of +/- 11%. This study considers the worst case scenario of a decrease in rainfall by 11% which will lead to some low rainfall areas experiencing an increased drought risk, particularly on lighter soils. Wet areas with heavy soils could benefit from an increase in the accessibility period for machinery. As the major agricultural land in Scotland is located on the relatively dry east coast where localised problems due to drought are not uncommon even under the present climate, the detrimental effects of a decrease in rainfall for the whole of Scotland are therefore likely to outweigh the benefits. Approximately 8% of Scotland has been identified in this study as soil/climate combinations which will be susceptible to drought should summer rainfall decrease by 11% and summer temperature increase by 1.4 degrees C.     

Projecting Climate Change Effects on Forest Net Primary Productivity in Subtropical Louisiana,USA

This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution of 5 km × 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011–2020 and then decline. The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2. Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution of the climate projections.     

Homegardens as a Multi-functional Land-Use Strategy in Sri Lanka with Focus on Carbon Sequestration

This paper explores the concept of homegardens and their potential functions as strategic elements in land-use planning, and adaptation and mitigation to climate change in Sri Lanka. The ancient and locally adapted agroforestry system of homegardens is presently estimated to occupy nearly 15 % of the land area in Sri Lanka and is described in the scientific literature to offer several ecosystem services to its users; such as climate regulation, protection against natural hazards, enhanced land productivity and biological diversity, increased crop diversity and food security for rural poor and hence reduced vulnerability to climate change. Our results, based on a limited sample size, indicate that the homegardens also store significant amount of carbon, with above ground biomass carbon stocks in dry zone homegardens (n = 8) ranging from 10 to 55 megagrams of carbon per hectare (Mg C ha⁻¹) with a mean value of 35 Mg C ha⁻¹, whereas carbon stocks in wet zone homegardens (n = 4) range from 48 to 145 Mg C ha⁻¹ with a mean value of 87 Mg C ha⁻¹. This implies that homegardens may contain a significant fraction of the total above ground biomass carbon stock in the terrestrial system in Sri Lanka, and from our estimates its share has increased from almost one-sixth in 1992 to nearly one-fifth in 2010. In the light of current discussions on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), the concept of homegardens in Sri Lanka provides interesting aspects to the debate and future research in terms of forest definitions, setting reference levels, and general sustainability.     

Waterfowl foraging in winter-flooded ricefields: Any agronomic benefits for farmers?

Winter-flooding of ricefields provides foraging habitat to waterfowl, which in return may bring agronomic benefits to farmers. Our study experimentally tested the effect of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) on the standing stalks and weed seed bank in the Camargue (France), both of which present major challenges for farmers. Three duck densities were tested: (D1) 5 ducks ha⁻¹ (historical nocturnal density), (D2) 23 ducks ha⁻¹ (present nocturnal density), and (D3) 300 ducks ha⁻¹ (Asian rice-duck farming density). The ducks reduced the stalks significantly: −27 % (D1), −52 % (D2), and −91 % (D3). Conversely, they decreased the number of seeds by only 3 % (D3) and the seed mass by about 21 % (D1 and D3), which was not significant. Besides they had no effect on seed species richness. This study clearly demonstrates that the winter-flooding effect on straw decomposition can be enhanced by waterfowl foraging, hence showing an agronomic benefit from ducks to farmers. However, there was no clear effect in terms of seed bank reduction.     

Sustainable farming practices of the Chinese mitten crab (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eriocheir sinensis)</Emphasis> around Hongze Lake,lower Yangtze River Basin,China

Results of a survey of 156 Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) grow-out farms around Hongze Lake (118.48–118.72°E; 33.36–33.38°N) are reported. Area farmed has remained relatively unchanged but production (59 932 t in 2012) increased steadily over the last 7 years, indicative of the viability and sustainability of the farming system that has gradually replaced intensive Chinese major carp polyculture around Hongze Lake. Results showed that production range was 135–2400 kg ha⁻¹ cycle⁻¹ (mean 1144 ± 34). Crab yields correlated linearly to stocking density and conformed to a normal distribution curve, with 66.7 % of farms yielding 900 kg ha⁻¹ cycle⁻¹ or more. Yield was negatively correlated to pond size and capture size (p < 0.01), and farms with macrophyte coverage rate lower than 30 % of water surface were significantly (p < 0.05) lower than those exceeding 30 %.

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