Ecological risk assessment of pollutant chemicals: extinction risk based on population-level effects

The extinction probability is one of the most useful endpoints that are utilized in conservation biology. A parallel approach is advocated for the ecological risk assessment of chemical pollutants. The presented framework estimates extinction probability induced by pollutant chemicals in order to evaluate ecological hazards of pollution, and is applicable to any biological community (aquatic or terrestrial). The analytical framework, which is based on stochastic population dynamics theory, is briefly explained. The extinction risk estimation is feasible if ecotoxicological data concerning pollutant effects on population growth rate of organisms (the intrinsic rate of natural increase), and if environmental exposure concentration is provided. Tentative risk estimation was made for some agrochemicals and surfactants on zooplankton populations (Daphnia) as target organisms.     

Assessing the impact of the Japanese 2005 World Exposition Project on vascular plants' risk of extinction

The Red Data Book of Japanese Vascular Plants is based on their risk of extinction. In order to construct the list, 2000 taxa were evaluated using population data and rates of decline for approximately 4400 grids, each of approximately 100 km(2). This database can be used to estimate the impact of human activity on a threatened plant's risk of extinction. In order to evaluate extinction risks and apply the evaluation to conservation actions, the discount mean time to extinction is defined as a measure of extinction risk, where the present value of a species' persistence in the future decreases exponentially. The rate of decrease has to be much less than the rate of economic discounting, in order to realize intergenerational sustainability. Increases of the inverse, and logarithm, of the discount mean time to extinction are considered measures of the extinction risk. We applied these measures to an environmental impact assessment for the Japanese World Exposition that is to be held in 2005. Development will have a greater impact on threatened Salvia species than it will on star magnolia, Magnolia tomentosa, which has been conserved by changing the site plan.     

Estimation of effects of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs on wildlife population--a case study on common cormorant

We presented a method for quantitatively evaluating the effects of chemical pollutants in the environment on a wildlife population. We expressed the effects of exposure to dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in Tokyo Bay sediment on a common cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) population in two ways. One was the changes in the intrinsic growth rate, and the other was the changes in the gross population size. The effects of exposure to the compounds were estimated by using the method of population ecology and available field data. Common cormorant population at Shinobazu Pond in Tokyo, Japan during 1974-1986 was selected as the target population. Intrinsic growth rate or gross size of the population based on the calculated residual level of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in the period was estimated to decrease to 89% or 85% of that without exposure to the compounds, respectively.     

Population-level effects of the neem insecticide, Neemix, on Daphnia pulex

Although natural insecticides from the neem tree are generally perceived as less harmful to the environment than synthetic insecticides, new evidence indicates that these products may pose a risk to certain nontarget organisms. In this paper, acute and chronic effects of commercial neem insecticides on the aquatic invertebrate, Daphnia pulex were examined. The acute toxicity of two commercial neem insecticides, Neemix, Azatin and the experimental insecticide, RH-9999 to D. pulex was investigated using traditional 48 hr concentration-mortality estimates. Neemix and Azatin were equitoxic with LC50's of 0.68 and 0.57 ppm; RH-9999 was significantly less toxic with an LC50 of 13 ppm. A 10 d population growth study was conducted for Neemix and a Neemix formulation blank (Neemix devoid of the active ingredients) to determine whether the active ingredients of Neemix and/or components of the formulation were responsible for toxicity. D. pulex populations went to extinction after exposure to a Neemix concentration of 0.45 ppm azadirachtin (equivalent to the acute LC7). Neemix No Observable Effect Concentration (NOEC) and Lowest Observable Effect Concentration (LOEC) values for population growth were 0.045 and 0.15 ppm azadirachtin, respectively. The mean number of offspring per surviving female (Ro) declined in a concentration-dependent manner after exposure to Neemix with no offspring being produced after exposure to 0.45 ppm. Neemix NOEC and LOEC values for reproduction were 0.045 and 0.15 ppm, respectively. The formulation blank caused no mortality in the individuals used to start the population growth study but reduced reproduction and population growth accounting for 47% of the toxicity caused by Neemix at a concentration of 0.15 ppm. Thus, the formulation contributes substantially to the toxicity of Neemix but neem components are also toxic to D. pulex. Because the NOEC for population growth and reproduction were higher than the estimated environmental concentration of 0.035 ppm (a measure developed for forest pest mananagement), Neemix should pose little risk to populations of D. pulex.     

Evaluation of alternative PCB clean-up strategies using an individual-based population model of mink

Population models can be used to place observed toxic effects into an assessment of the impacts on population-level endpoints, which are generally considered to provide greater ecological insight and relevance. We used an individual-based model of mink to evaluate the population-level effects of exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and the impact that different remediation strategies had on mink population endpoints (population size and extinction risk). Our simulations indicated that the initial population size had a strong impact on mink population dynamics. In addition, mink populations were extremely responsive to clean-up scenarios that were initiated soon after the contamination event. In fact, the rate of PCB clean-up did not have as strong a positive effect on mink as did the initiation of clean-up (start time). We show that population-level approaches can be used to understand adverse effects of contamination and to also explore the potential benefits of various remediation strategies.     

Ranking the risks of 12 major environmental pollutants that occur in Japan

The risks posed by 12 major environmental pollutants in Japan were evaluated and ranked on the same scale. These were arsenic, benzene, cadmium, chlordane, chlorpyrifos, DDTs, dioxins, formaldehyde, methylmercury, radon, toluene, and xylenes. Approximately half of these substances are carcinogenic while the other half are non-carcinogenic. We applied a risk estimation framework that can evaluate both cancer and non-cancer risks on the same scale. The framework consists of two parts: the calculation of the probability of adverse health effects, and the evaluation of the severity of the effects. In order to calculate the probability of adverse health effects, individual variabilities in exposure level, metabolizing rate, and sensitivity were taken into account. Loss of life expectancy (LLE; days) was used as a measure of severity of the adverse health effects and of the resulting risk level. The risk level of the substances in terms of LLE ranged from approximately 0.01 to 10 days. The risks from radon and formaldehyde were found to be the highest, while those from DDT and chlordane were the lowest. Our findings also suggested that the risk levels posed by non-carcinogenic substances were comparable to those posed by carcinogenic substances.     

Estimating the Effect of Being Indoors on Total Personal Exposure to Outdoor Air Pollution

A personal air quality model (PAQM) has been developed to estimate the effect of being indoors on total personal exposure to outdoor-generated air pollution. Designed to improve air toxics risk assessment, PAQM accounts for individual hourly activity patterns, indoor-outdoor differences, physical exercise level, and geographic location for up to 56 different population groups. Unique hourly activity profiles are specified for each population group; group members are assigned each hour to one of up to 10 different indoor and outdoor microenvironments. To illustrate PAQM use, we apply it to two example cases: a long-term example representative of situations where pollutant health impact is related to integrated exposure (as in the case of potentially carcinogenic air toxics) and a short-term example representative of situations where health impact is related to acute exposure to peak concentrations (as with ozone).

Case study results illustrate that personal exposure, and thus health risk, attributable to outdoor-generated air pollution is sensitive to indoor-outdoor differences and population mobility. Where health impact is related to long-term integrated exposure (e.g., air toxics), exposure and subsequent risk are likely to be lower than that estimated by previous modeling techniques which do not account for such effects.     

Persistent organochlorine residues in human breast milk from Hanoi and Hochiminh City, Vietnam: contamination, accumulation kinetics and risk assessment for infants

Despite the ban on persistent organochlorines (OCs) in most of the developed nations, their usage continued until recently in many Asian developing countries including Vietnam, for agricultural purposes and vector-borne disease eradication programs. In this study, we collected human breast milk samples from the two big cities in Vietnam: Hanoi (n=42) and Hochiminh (n=44) and determined the concentrations of persistent OCs such as PCBs, DDT and its metabolites (DDTs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), chlordane compounds (CHLs) and tris-4-chlorophenyl-methane (TCPMe). The contamination pattern of OCs was in the order of DDTs > PCBs > HCHs > CHLs approximately HCB approximately TCPMe. Compilation of available data indicated that DDT residue levels in human breast milk from Vietnam were among the highest values reported for Asian developing countries as well as developed nations. This result suggests recent usage of DDTs in both north and south Vietnam. Interestingly, in both cities, the p,p'-DDT portion was higher in multiparas than those in primiparas. Considering the fact that the interval between the first and the second child of a mother in Vietnam is usually short, this result probably indicates continuous intake of DDTs in the population. Analysis of infant exposure to DDTs via breast milk suggested that the daily intake rates for number of individuals are close to or above the threshold for adverse effects which may raise concern on children health.     

Residues and chiral signatures of organochlorine pesticides in sediments from Xiangshan Bay, East China Sea

Residual levels and enantiomeric signatures of hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) in surface sediments from Xiangshan Bay, East China Sea were investigated. The concentrations of ∑HCHs (sums of α-, β-, γ-, and δ-HCH) and ∑DDTs (sums of p, p'-DDT, p, p'-DDD,p, p'-DDE, o, p'-DDT, and o, p'-DDD) ranged from 0.14 to 0.67 ng g?1 and 0.61 to 22.38 ng g?1, respectively. A slight potential health risk to the organism was then indicated for the residual levels of DDTs according to the ERL/ERM guidelines. Moreover, the predominant β-HCH implied that the technical HCH contamination was mainly due to the historical usage. But the high ratio of DDT/∑DDTs depicted a cocktail input pattern of fresh and weathered DDTs. The enantiomeric fractions (EFs) of α-HCH, o, p'-DDT, and o, p'-DDD were also determined. The degradation of α-HCH was enantioselective in all sediments samples, resulting in an enrichment of (-)-enantiomers. However, the racemic residues of o, p'-DDT and o, p'-DDD were observed in all sediments samples.     

Potential of different species for use in removal of DDT from the contaminated soils

Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and its main metabolites, p,p'-DDD and p,p'-DDE (DDTs in this study included DDT, DDD and DDE), are frequently detected in agricultural soils even though its usage in agriculture was banned in 1980s or earlier. In this study, eleven plants including eight maize (Zea mays) cultivars and three forage species (alfalfa, ryegrass and teosinte) widely cultivated in China were grown in the soils spiked with DDTs to investigate their potential for removal of DDT from the contaminated soils. The plants varied largely in their ability to accumulate and translocate DDTs, with the bioconcentration factor (BCF; DDT concentration ratio of the plant tissues to the soils) ranging from 0.014 to 0.25 and the translocation factor (TF; DDT concentration ratio of the shoots to the roots) varying from 0.35 (Zea mays cv Chaotian-23) to 0.76 (Zea mays spp. mexicana). The amount of DDT phytoextraction ranged from 3.89mug (ryegrass) to 27.0mug (teosinte) and accounted for <0.1% of the total initial DDTs spiked in the soils. After 70d, the removal rates reached 47.1-70.3% of the total initial DDTs spiked in the soils with plants while that was only 15.4% in the soils without plant. Moreover, the higher removal rates of DDTs occurred at the first 20d of experiment, and then the removal rate decreased with time. The highest amount of DDTs phytoextracted was observed in teosinte, followed by Zea mays spp. mexicana, but the highest removal rate of DDTs was found in maize (Zea mays cv Jinhai-6). Even though phytoextraction is not the main removal process for DDTs, the plant species especially Zea mays cv Jinhai-6 showed high potential for removing DDTs from the contaminated soils.     

Organochlorine contaminants in hair of adolescents from Iassy, Romania

Human hair samples (n=42) from Iassy county (Eastern Romania) collected in 2002-2003 from adolescents were analyzed for hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers, p,p'-DDT and its metabolites, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), chlordane and metabolites and 5 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners. Very low levels were found for HCB and oxychlordane (0.8 and 2.5 ng g(-1)) indicating a low usage of these pesticide formulations in the studied area. In case of HCHs, gamma-HCH isomer was measured at higher median concentrations (79 ng g(-1) hair) compared to the beta-HCH isomer (55 ng g(-1)), which generally is the most prevalent from HCHs. The DDTs profile consisted in p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT which levels correspond to 81% of sum DDTs. Very high median concentrations measured for p,p'-DDT (192 ng g(-1)) combined with lower values for p,p'-DDE/p,p'-DDT of 0.4 (from 0.20 to 2.0) in all hair samples suggest recent exposure to "fresh" DDT. When gender was considered, significantly higher concentrations for most of the investigated contaminants were found in girls hair compared to boys. Very high levels were found in the present study for HCHs and DDTs compared to samples from Greece, Western Europe and China. In case of PCBs, the levels found in Romanian samples were found to be in the same range compared to other previously published data.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls and DDT in swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and blue shark (Prionace glauca) from Brazilian coast

The polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and DDT may bioaccumulate in the aquatic food web and have been of great concern due to their toxic effects on wildlife and human health. There is evidence showing that fish in the human diet contributes at a significant proportion to the total intake of PCBs and other organochlorine compounds, particularly fish with higher fat levels. This study investigated the concentration of PCBs and DDTs in muscle tissues of samples of the blue shark (Prionace glauca) and a swordfish (Xiphias gladius) from east Brazilian coast and estimate the human exposure to total DDTs through the consumption of both the species. Samples of the each species were caught between August and September 2001. The mean concentration for summation operator PCBs in P. glauca was 3.15 ng/g w.w. and the summation operator DDTs was 0.93 ng/g w.w. The mean concentration of summation operator PCBs in X. gladius was 6.50 ng/g and the mean of summation operator DDTs was 2.47 ng/g. The estimated daily intake of summation operator DDT through X. gladius or P. glauca consumption can be considered safe since it contributes to less than 0.1% of the limit of acceptable daily intake (ADI) of summation operator DDT proposed by WHO.     

Probabilistic risk assessment of abalone Haliotis diversicolor supertexta exposed to waterborne zinc

This paper describes a risk assessment approach that integrates predicted tissue concentrations of zinc (Zn) with a concentration-response relationship and leads to predictions of survival risk for pond abalone Haliotis diversicolor supertexta as well as to the uncertainties associated with these predictions. The models implemented include a probabilistic bioaccumulation model, which linking biokinetic and consumer-resource models, accounts for Zn exposure profile and a modified Hill model for reconstructing a dose-response profile for abalone exposed to waterborne Zn. The growth risk is assessed by hazard quotients characterized by measured water level and chronic no-observed effect concentration. Our risk analyses for H. diversicolor supertexta reared near Toucheng, Kouhu, and Anping, respectively, in north, central, and south Taiwan region indicate a relatively low likelihood that survival is being affected by waterborne Zn. Expected risks of mortality for abalone were estimated as 0.46 (Toucheng), 0.36 (Kouhu), and 0.29 (Anping). The predicted 90th-percentiles of hazard quotient for potential growth risk were estimated as 1.94 (Toucheng), 0.47 (Kouhu), and 0.51 (Anping). These findings indicate that waterborne Zn exposure poses no significant risk to pond abalone in Kouhu and Anping, yet a relative high growth risk in Toucheng is alarming. Because of a scarcity of toxicity and exposure data, the probabilistic risk assessment was based on very conservative assumptions.     

National survey of the levels of persistent organochlorine pesticides in the breast milk of mothers in China

The occurrence of persistent organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in breast milk samples collected from mothers from twelve provinces in mainland China was investigated. Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) were the most prevalent agent, followed by HCHs and HCB, whereas levels of chlordane compounds, drins and mirex were lower. The relatively lower DDE/DDT ratio in the Fujian rural area suggested more recent exposure to DDT than in other areas. The mean level of DDTs in breast milk from the southern China was higher than those from northern China (p < 0.05). A positive correlation was observed between concentration of DDTs in human milk and consumption of animal-origin food, suggesting that this parameter could play an important part in influencing OCPs burdens in lactating women. The mean estimated daily intakes of different OCPs for breastfed infants were lower than the tolerable daily intake.     

Characterization of HCHs and DDTs in urban dustfall and prediction of soil burden in a metropolis-Beijing, China

The concentrations, spatial distribution and compositional patterns of extensively used hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) in urban dustfall in a metropolis-Beijing are presented in this paper. The potential sources are discussed and soil burdens are predicted based on the fluxes. The hotspots in commercial areas are identified by spatial distribution maps and the fractional value isomers indicates that dustfall in urban Beijing are affected by both current and historical usage of DDTs. It is worth noticing that there is possible application "dicofol-type of DDTs" in Beijing. The measured atmospheric deposition flux is 1.14×10(5) ng h(-1) m(-2) for HCHs and 1.47×10(5) ng h(-1) m(-2) for DDTs, respectively. However, when compared with atmospheric deposition flux, the volatilization flux estimated from concentrations in soils by fugacity model is significantly lower for HCHs (2.41 ng h(-1) m(-2)) and DDTs (0.07 ng h(-1) m(-2)). The net atmospheric flux to the soil suggests that the levels of HCHs and DDTs in soil are dominated by atmospheric deposition and the urban soil in Beijing would be a sink for HCHs and DDTs in the long term.     

Assessing spatial distribution,sources, and human health risk of organochlorine pesticide residues in the soils of arid and semiarid areas of northwest China

Thirty-two topsoil samples were collected to analyze the residue levels of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in topsoil of arid and semiarid areas of northwest China in 2011. Results showed that DDTs were the dominant contaminants with a mean concentration of 12.52 ng/g. The spatial distribution characteristics indicated that α-hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) were mainly used in rural sites, whereas hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and endosulfan were detected mostly in urban areas. DDTs, heptachlor, and chlordane were found almost equally in both urban and rural areas. Source identification revealed that the current levels of HCHs in soils were attributable to the residues from their historical use and fresh usage of lindane (γ-HCH). DDTs were mainly from historical use and fresh usage of dicofol, and HCB was emitted from the chemical industry. It was also found that the current soil levels of heptachlor were mainly from its historical usage, endosulfan from fresh input, and chlordane from long-range atmospheric transport, respectively. The noncarcinogenic health risk assessment with a model was also conducted using USEPA standards for adults and children. Results indicated that health risk under nondietary exposure to OCPs decreased in the sequence of ΣDDT?>?ΣHCH?>?HCB?>?Σheptachlor?>?Σendosulfan?>?Σchlordane. According to the reference dose from the USEPA, the health risk under nondietary exposure to OCPs in the soil samples was at a relatively safe level.     

Comparative health impact assessment of local and regional particulate air pollutants in Scandinavia

The ongoing program Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) is an initiative from the EU Commission to establish a coordinated effort to reach better air quality in the EU. The focus is on particulate matter as it has been shown to have large impact on human health. CAFE requested that WHO make a review of the latest findings on air pollutants and health to facilitate assessments of the different air pollutants and their health effects. The WHO review project on health aspects of air pollution in Europe confirmed that exposure to particulate matter (PM), despite the lower levels we face today, still poses a significant risk to human health. Using the recommended uniform risk coefficients for health impact assessment of PM, regardless of sources, premature mortality related to long-range transported anthropogenic particles has been estimated to be about 3500 deaths per year for the Swedish population, corresponding to a reduction in life expectancy of up to about seven months. The influence of local sources is more difficult to estimate due to large uncertainties when linking available risk coefficients to exposure data, but the estimates indicate about 1800 deaths brought forward each year with a life expectancy reduction of about 2-3 months. However, some sectors of the population are exposed to quite high locally induced concentrations and are likely to suffer excessive reductions in life expectancy. Since the literature increasingly supports assumptions that combustion related particles are associated with higher relative risks, further studies may shift the focus for abatement strategies. CAFE sets out to establish a general cost effective abatement strategy for atmospheric particles. Our results, based on studies of background exposure, show that long-range transported sulfate rich particles dominate the health effects of PM in Sweden. The same results would be found for the whole of Scandinavia and many countries influenced by transboundary air pollution. However, several health studies, including epidemiological studies with a finer spatial resolution, indicate that engine exhaust particles are more damaging to health than other particles. These contradictory findings must be understood and source specific risk estimates have to be established by expert bodies, otherwise it will not be possible to find the most cost effective abatement strategy for Europe. We are not happy with today's situation where every strategy to reduce PM concentrations is estimated to have the same impact per unit change in the mass concentration. Obviously there is a striking need to introduce more specific exposure variables and a higher geographical resolution in epidemiology as well as in health impact assessments.     

Persistent organochlorines in human breast milk collected from primiparae in Dalian and Shenyang, China

The present study determined the concentrations of organochlorines (OCs) such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs), hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (HCHs), chlordane compounds (CHLs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane (TCPMe) in human breast milk collected from primiparae in Dalian and Shenyang, northeastern China during 2002. In addition, dioxins and related compounds in pooled samples of human breast milk from Dalian and Shenyang were also analyzed. OCs were detected in all the human breast milk samples analyzed in this study. The predominant contaminants in human breast milk were HCHs, DDTs and HCB, and the levels were relatively higher than those in other countries. On the other hand, concentrations of dioxins and related compounds, PCBs, and CHLs were relatively low. Concentrations of OCs in human breast milk from Dalian, which is located along the coast of Bo Hai Strait, were significantly higher than those from Shenyang, implying that the residents in Dalian might be mainly exposed to these contaminants from seafood. When the relationship between concentrations of OCs in human breast milk and age of primiparae was examined, no significant correlation was observed. This might be caused by the limited sample numbers and narrow range of mother's age and/or recent ban of DDT and HCH production and use. Significant correlation between concentrations of TCPMe and DDTs in human breast milk suggested that technical DDT might be a source of TCPMe in the Chinese population. When daily intakes of DDTs and HCHs to infants through human breast milk were estimated, human breast milk from Dalian showed significantly higher contribution than Shenyang, implying that infants in Dalian might be at higher risk by these contaminants.     

Non-destructive pollution exposure assessment in the European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus): IV. Hair versus soil analysis in exposure and risk assessment of organochlorine compounds

Few ecotoxicological studies on mammals use non-destructive methodologies, despite the growing ethical concern over the use of destructive sampling methods. In the present study we assessed exposure of hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethanes (DDTs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), by investigating concentrations of these compounds in soils and hedgehog hair from seven study sites around the urban area of Antwerp, Belgium. No relationships were observed between organochlorine compound concentrations in soils and hair from the different study areas. Furthermore, the individual variation of contamination levels in hair within study sites was high, especially for HCHs and HCB, and hair and soil had different relative profiles for PCBs, DDTs and HCHs. Our results show that concentrations of organochlorine compounds in soils alone are not predictive of the risk of these pollutants to hedgehogs and that tissue analyses are preferred to soil analyses in exposure and risk assessment studies.     

Specific accumulation of organochlorines in human breast milk from Indonesia: levels, distribution, accumulation kinetics and infant health risk

This study determined concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine compound (OC) pesticides in the milk samples of women from the general population in four locations of Indonesia. The most prevalent residues of OCs were DDTs, PCBs and hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (HCHs), whereas other OCs such as chlordane compounds (CHLs), tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane and hexachlorobenzene were lower. The levels of OCs varied between locations and individuals, with DDTs higher in suburban and rural areas than urban localities, may be due to the differences in food habits and sources between the individuals and locations. Data from Purwakarta site indicated continuing DDT exposure, which may confirm recent usage of DDT in Indonesia. A positive correlation was observed between concentration of OCs in human milk and age of mothers, primiparas women having higher OCs than multiparas, suggesting these parameters play an important role influencing the OC burdens in lactating women. Some individuals accumulated DDTs and HCHs in breast milk close to or even higher than the TDI (tolerable daily intake) guidelines proposed by Health Canada.