Non-native vascular flora of the Arctic: Taxonomic richness,distribution and pathways

We present a comprehensive list of non-native vascular plants known from the Arctic, explore their geographic distribution, analyze the extent of naturalization and invasion among 23 subregions of the Arctic, and examine pathways of introductions. The presence of 341 non-native taxa in the Arctic was confirmed, of which 188 are naturalized in at least one of the 23 regions. A small number of taxa (11) are considered invasive; these plants are known from just three regions. In several Arctic regions there are no naturalized non-native taxa recorded and the majority of Arctic regions have a low number of naturalized taxa. Analyses of the non-native vascular plant flora identified two main biogeographic clusters within the Arctic: American and Asiatic. Among all pathways, seed contamination and transport by vehicles have contributed the most to non-native plant introduction in the Arctic.     

Sources,distribution, and acidity of sulfate–ammonium aerosol in the Arctic in winter–spring

We use GEOS-Chem chemical transport model simulations of sulfate–ammonium aerosol data from the NASA ARCTAS and NOAA ARCPAC aircraft campaigns in the North American Arctic in April 2008, together with longer-term data from surface sites, to better understand aerosol sources in the Arctic in winter–spring and the implications for aerosol acidity. Arctic pollution is dominated by transport from mid-latitudes, and we test the relevant ammonia and sulfur dioxide emission inventories in the model by comparison with wet deposition flux data over the source continents. We find that a complicated mix of natural and anthropogenic sources with different vertical signatures is responsible for sulfate concentrations in the Arctic. East Asian pollution influence is weak in winter but becomes important in spring through transport in the free troposphere. European influence is important at all altitudes but never dominant. West Asia (non-Arctic Russia and Kazakhstan) is the largest contributor to Arctic sulfate in surface air in winter, reflecting a southward extension of the Arctic front over that region. Ammonium in Arctic spring mostly originates from anthropogenic sources in East Asia and Europe, with added contribution from boreal fires, resulting in a more neutralized aerosol in the free troposphere than at the surface. The ARCTAS and ARCPAC data indicate a median aerosol neutralization fraction [NH₄⁺]/(2[SO₄^2?] + [NO₃^?]) of 0.5 mol mol^?1 below 2 km and 0.7 mol mol^?1 above. We find that East Asian and European aerosol transported to the Arctic is mostly neutralized, whereas West Asian and North American aerosol is highly acidic. Growth of sulfur emissions in West Asia may be responsible for the observed increase in aerosol acidity at Barrow over the past decade. As global sulfur emissions decline over the next decades, increasing aerosol neutralization in the Arctic is expected, potentially accelerating Arctic warming through indirect radiative forcing and feedbacks.     

Air concentrations of currently used herbicides and legacy compounds in the Canadian prairies,subarctic, and arctic

Passive air samplers were installed in the summers of 2005 and 2007 for 90 days at four locations in the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairies and at five locations in the Canadian Subarctic and Arctic. The presence and masses of ten currently used herbicides and three legacy compounds in the polyurethane foam disks were quantified. Herbicides 2,4-D, bromoxynil and MCPA were detected at all locations in the Canadian Prairies and in both years because these herbicides are widely applied to control broadleaf weeds in cereal crops that are an integral part of Prairie agricultural production systems. MCPA was also detected at one location in the Arctic in 2007. The detection of the other seven herbicides in the 2 years combined ranged from no detections (atrazine only) to five detections for the relatively volatile herbicides trifluralin and triallate. Triallate was the only other herbicide detected in the Arctic (2005). Legacy compounds were either not detected (alachlor) or at levels near their detection level (γ-HCH and α-HCH). γ-HCH and α-HCH were more frequently detected in 2005 than in 2007 indicating that their concentrations in Canadian air have decreased over time. γ-HCH, widely used as an insecticide in Prairie oilseed production until 2002, was detected at larger concentrations in the Canadian Prairies than in the Subarctic and Arctic. α-HCH, a manufacturing by-product in technical HCH prior to 1971 in Canada, was not detected in the Canadian Prairies but was at detectable levels in the Subarctic and Arctic as the Arctic Ocean is reported to be a major source of α-HCH to the atmosphere. We conclude that some of the most widely used herbicides in Canadian agriculture today are commonly present in the air in regions where they are applied and that a portion of these herbicides may be traveling as parent molecules to the Canadian Arctic. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first evidence of the presence of MCPA and triallate in Arctic air samples, perhaps because previous research has seldomly monitored for currently used herbicides in this region.     

Climate change,future Arctic Sea ice,and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets

A significant share of the world’s undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.     

Biodiversity, distributions and adaptations of Arctic species in the context of environmental change

The individual of a species is the basic unit which responds to climate and UV-B changes, and it responds over a wide range of time scales. The diversity of animal, plant and microbial species appears to be low in the Arctic, and decreases from the boreal forests to the polar deserts of the extreme North but primitive species are particularly abundant. This latitudinal decline is associated with an increase in super-dominant species that occupy a wide range of habitats. Climate warming is expected to reduce the abundance and restrict the ranges of such species and to affect species at their northern range boundaries more than in the South: some Arctic animal and plant specialists could face extinction. Species most likely to expand into tundra are boreal species that currently exist as outlier populations in the Arctic. Many plant species have characteristics that allow them to survive short snow-free growing seasons, low solar angles, permafrost and low soil temperatures, low nutrient availability and physical disturbance. Many of these characteristics are likely to limit species' responses to climate warming, but mainly because of poor competitive ability compared with potential immigrant species. Terrestrial Arctic animals possess many adaptations that enable them to persist under a wide range of temperatures in the Arctic. Many escape unfavorable weather and resource shortage by winter dormancy or by migration. The biotic environment of Arctic animal species is relatively simple with few enemies, competitors, diseases, parasites and available food resources. Terrestrial Arctic animals are likely to be most vulnerable to warmer and drier summers, climatic changes that interfere with migration routes and staging areas, altered snow conditions and freeze-thaw cycles in winter, climate-induced disruption of the seasonal timing of reproduction and development, and influx of new competitors, predators, parasites and diseases. Arctic microorganisms are also well adapted to the Arctic's climate: some can metabolize at temperatures down to -39 degrees C. Cyanobacteria and algae have a wide range of adaptive strategies that allow them to avoid, or at least minimize UV injury. Microorganisms can tolerate most environmental conditions and they have short generation times which can facilitate rapid adaptation to new environments. In contrast, Arctic plant and animal species are very likely to change their distributions rather than evolve significantly in response to warming.     

Past changes in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, climate and UV radiation

At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13 degrees C colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18,000 and 11,400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the "Little Ice Age spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150,000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10,000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, as it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic conditions that are apparently without precedent during the Pleistocene is likely to be considerable, particularly as their exposure to co-occurring environmental changes (such as enhanced levels of UV-B, deposition of nitrogen compounds from the atmosphere, heavy metal and acidic pollution, radioactive contamination, increased habitat fragmentation) is also without precedent.     

Foreword

We provide an introduction to the volume The Arctic in the Earth System perspective: the role of tipping points. The terms tipping point and tipping element are described and their role in current science, general debates, and the Arctic are elucidated. From a wider perspective, the volume focuses upon the role of humans in the Arctic component of the Earth system and in particular the envelope for human existence, the Arctic ecosystems. The Arctic climate tipping elements, the tipping elements in Arctic ecosystems and societies, and the challenges of governance and anticipation are illuminated through short summaries of eight publications that derive from the Arctic Frontiers conference in 2011 and the EU FP7 project Arctic Tipping Points. Then some ideas based upon resilience thinking are developed to show how wise system management could ease pressures on Arctic systems in order to keep them away from tipping points.     

Red-throated loons (Gavia stellata) breeding in Alaska,USA, are exposed to PCBs while on their Asian wintering grounds

Red-throated loons (Gavia stellata) breeding in Alaska declined 53% during 1977–1993. We compare concentrations of environmental contaminants in red-throated loons among four nesting areas in Alaska and discuss potential ramifications of exposure on reproductive success and population trends. Eggs from the four areas had similar total polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations, but eggs from the Arctic coastal plain had different congener profiles and greater toxic equivalents (TEQs) than eggs from elsewhere. Satellite telemetry data indicate that red-throated loons from the Arctic coastal plain in northern Alaska winter in southeast Asia, while those breeding elsewhere in Alaska winter in North America. Different wintering areas may lead to differential PCB accumulation among red-throated loon populations. For eggs from the Arctic coastal plain, TEQs were great enough to postulate PCB-associated reproductive effects in piscivores. The correlation between migration patterns and PCB profiles suggests that red-throated loons breeding in northern Alaska are exposed to PCBs while on their Asian wintering grounds.     

Environmental pollutants in the Swedish marine ecosystem, with special emphasis on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE)

Levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and perfluorinated organic compounds (PFCs) were analysed in whole herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus), eggs from common eider (Somateria mollissima) and eggs and livers from herring gull (Larus argentatus) from the Swedish west coast. The contaminant values obtained were compared with published values from the Arctic marine ecosystem. Tetra- and penta-brominated PBDEs were detected at low levels in herring, sprat and common eider (ΣPBDE 0.3-2.0 ng g⁻¹ ww), while the levels were higher in the herring gull samples (ΣPBDE 1.3-29.9 ng g⁻¹ ww). Hexa-decaBDEs were also found in samples from herring gulls. Eggs from herring gulls from the sub-Arctic contained four times more PBDE than the Swedish herring gulls eggs. Fish samples from the Arctic had two times higher levels of PBDEs and DDTs than similar samples from Sweden. The higher levels of contaminants in fish and seabirds from the Arctic reflect differences in transport processes, feeding ecology (reflected by trophic levels) and metabolism. PBDEs contributed to <10% of the total contaminant load in all investigated samples. The relative contribution of DDTs was higher in fish and bird samples from the Arctic when compared to Swedish samples, e.g. 65% in glaucous gull livers compared to 10% in herring gull livers. This study shows that even though the Swedish west coast is more urban than the Arctic, higher pollutants levels are found in seabird species from the Arctic.     

Arctic Climate Tipping Points

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.     

Springtime depletion of tropospheric ozone,gaseous elemental mercury and non-methane hydrocarbons in the European Arctic,and its relation to atmospheric transport

Using a trajectory climatology for the period 1992–2001 we have examined how seasonal changes in transport cause changes in the concentrations of tropospheric ozone (O₃), gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) observed at the Mt. Zeppelin station, Ny-Ålesund (78.9°N, 11.9°E). During April–June O₃ depletion events were frequently observed in connection with air transport across the Arctic Basin. The O₃ loss was most pronounced in air masses advected close to the surface. This result supports the idea that the O₃ depletion reactions take place in the lowermost part of the atmosphere in the central Arctic Basin. A strong positive correlation between springtime O₃ depletion events and the oxidation of GEM to divalent mercury was found. During air mass advection from Siberia, the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea the strongest correlation was observed during April–May, whereas air masses originating from the Canadian Arctic and the central Arctic areas showed the highest O₃–GEM correlation in May–June. We suggest that this 1-month lag could either be due to the position of the marginal ice zone or temperature differences between the northwestern and northeastern air masses. In connection with springtime O₃ depletion events low concentrations of some NMHCs, especially ethane and ethyne, were observed, indicating that both bromine (ethyne oxidant) and chlorine radicals (ethane oxidant) are present in the Arctic atmosphere during spring. In winter, negative correlations between O₃ and NMHCs were found in connection with air transport from Europe and Siberia, which we interpret as O₃ destruction taking place in industrially contaminated plumes.     

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.     

Future distribution of Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under climate change: effects of temperature, lake size and species interactions

Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961-1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95?% of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73?% of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.     

Arctic Tipping Points: Governance in Turbulent Times

Interacting forces of climate change and globalization are transforming the Arctic. Triggered by a non-linear shift in sea ice, this transformation has unleashed mounting interest in opportunities to exploit the region’s natural resources as well as growing concern about environmental, economic, and political issues associated with such efforts. This article addresses the implications of this transformation for governance, identifies limitations of existing arrangements, and explores changes needed to meet new demands. It advocates the development of an Arctic regime complex featuring flexibility across issues and adaptability over time along with an enhanced role for the Arctic Council both in conducting policy-relevant assessments and in promoting synergy in interactions among the elements of the emerging Arctic regime complex. The emphasis throughout is on maximizing the fit between the socioecological features of the Arctic and the character of the governance arrangements needed to steer the Arctic toward a sustainable future.     

Anthropogenic pollutants in the Russian Arctic atmosphere: sources and sinks in spring and summer

The 5-day forward and backward trajectories of air mass transport to three Russian Arctic points for each day in April and July over a 10-year period from 1986 to 1995 have been analyzed. The important features and seasonal differences in air exchange processes in various areas of the Arctic have been investigated. Taking into account seasonal variations in aerosol scavenging mechanisms and velocities, the average contributions of large highly industrialized regions of the Russian Arctic air pollution were estimated for April and July. Reasonable correspondence between the calculated mean concentrations for six anthropogenic chemical elements (As, Ni, Pb, V, Zn, Cd) and experimentally determined values have been obtained. The atmospheric pollution transport from the Arctic was studied as yet another way of cleaning the Arctic atmosphere, in addition to the traditionally considered wet and dry depositions onto the surface. The average apportionment of conservative contaminants after passing the observation points was estimated for spring and summer. The air masses passing through the observation points in spring may take about 20–40% of pollutants out of the Arctic. In summer, however, more than 90% of pollutants transported into the Russian Arctic deposit within 5 days onto the surface inside the Arctic region. The monthly average fluxes of six anthropogenic elements onto the surface in the Russian Arctic were estimated for April and July.     

Polybrominated methoxy diphenyl ethers (MeO-PBDEs) in fish and guillemot of Baltic, Atlantic and Arctic environments

Arctic cod liver samples from Vestertana Fjord at the Arctic coast of Norway, salmon and guillemot samples from the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, and salmon and lamprey larva samples from Kymijoki River in southern Finland were analysed for the occurrence of tri-, tetra- and pentabromomethoxy diphenyl ethers and their concentration levels were estimated. These compounds have previously been identified by other research groups in salmon, seal and dolphin samples. The aim of this study was to find out a possible temporal trend in the concentrations of these compounds in the cod liver samples from years 1987-1998 and to investigate the possible spatial differences in the concentrations in biota samples from the Baltic Sea, Atlantic Ocean, Arctic Sea and contaminated freshwater river. Two most abundant methoxy-tetrabromo diphenyl ether congeners occurred in the same statistically significant ratio in 14 sea biota samples. Levels in lamprey larvae were below detection limit. The origin of these methoxylated bromodiphenyl ethers in biota samples remained unknown. They may be metabolites of polybrominated diphenyl ethers used as flame retardants or compounds of natural origin.     

Local Arctic air pollution: Sources and impacts

Local emissions of Arctic air pollutants and their impacts on climate, ecosystems and health are poorly understood. Future increases due to Arctic warming or economic drivers may put additional pressures on the fragile Arctic environment already affected by mid-latitude air pollution. Aircraft data were collected, for the first time, downwind of shipping and petroleum extraction facilities in the European Arctic. Data analysis reveals discrepancies compared to commonly used emission inventories, highlighting missing emissions (e.g. drilling rigs) and the intermittent nature of certain emissions (e.g. flaring, shipping). Present-day shipping/petroleum extraction emissions already appear to be impacting pollutant (ozone, aerosols) levels along the Norwegian coast and are estimated to cool and warm the Arctic climate, respectively. Future increases in shipping may lead to short-term (long-term) warming (cooling) due to reduced sulphur (CO₂) emissions, and be detrimental to regional air quality (ozone). Further quantification of local Arctic emission impacts is needed.     

Determination of Q1, an unknown organochlorine contaminant, in human milk, Antarctic air, and further environmental samples

Q1, an organochlorine component with the molecular formula C(9)H(3)Cl(7)N(2) and of unknown origin was recently identified in seal blubber samples from the Namibian coast (southwest of Africa) and the Antarctic. In these samples, Q1 was more abundant than PCBs and on the level of DDT residues. Furthermore, Q1 was more abundant in seals from the Antarctic than the Arctic. To prove this assumption, gas chromatography-electron-capture negative ion mass spectrometry (GC/ECNI-MS), which is sensitive and selective for Q1, allowed for screening of traces of Q1 even in samples with particularly high levels of other organochlorine contaminants. Q1 was isolated by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) from a skua liver sample. A 1:1 mixture with trans-nonachlor in electron-capture detectors (ECDs) was used to determine the relative response factor with ECNI-MS. The ECNI-MS response of Q1 turned out to be 4.5 times higher than that of trans-nonachlor in an ECD. With GC/ECNI-MS in the selected ion-monitoring mode, four Antarctic and four Arctic air samples were investigated for the presence of Q1. In the Antarctic air samples, Q1 levels ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 fg/m(3). In Arctic air samples, however, Q1 was below the detection limit (<0.06 fg/m(3) or 60 ag/m(3)). We also report on high Q1 levels in selected human milk samples (12-230 microg/kg lipid) and, therefore, suggested that the unknown Q1 is an environmental compound whose origin and distribution should be investigated in detail. Our data confirm that Q1 is a bioaccumulative natural organochlorine product. Detection of a highly chlorinated natural organochlorine compound in air and human milk is novel.