Probabilistic approaches in the effect assessment of toxic chemicals. What are the benefits and limitations?

There is an ongoing discussion whether in the environmental risk assessment for chemicals the so called 'deterministic' approach using point estimates of exposure and effect concentrations is still appropriate. Instead, the more detailed and scientifically sounder probabilistic methods that have been developed over the last years are widely recommended. Here, we present the results of a probabilistic effect assessment for the aquatic environment performed for the pesticide methyl parathion and compare them with the results obtained with the common deterministic approach as described in the EU Technical Guidance Document. Methyl parathion was chosen because a sufficient data set (acute toxicity data for about 70 species) was available. The assumptions underlying the probabilistic effect assessment are discussed in the light of the results obtained for methyl parathion. Two important assumptions made by many studies are: (i) a sufficient number of ecologically relevant toxicity data is available, (ii) the toxicity data follow a certain distribution such as log-normal. Considering the scarcity of data for many industrial chemicals, we conclude that these assumptions would not be fulfilled in many cases if the probabilistic assessment was applied to the majority of industrial chemicals. Therefore, despite the well-known limitations of the deterministic approach, it should not be replaced by probabilistic methods unless the assumptions of these methods are carefully checked in each individual case, which would significantly increase the effort for the assessment procedure.     

The EU-project ERAPharm. Incentives for the further development of guidance documents?

- Triggered by the detection of a large variety of pharmaceuticals in surface waters, soils and groundwaters across the world (e.g. Halling- Sørensen et al. 1998, Daughton & Ternes 1999, Jones et al. 2001, Heberer 2002) and the widespread occurrence of endocrine active compounds and related effects in the environment (e.g. Purdom et al. 1994, Tyler et al. 1998, Vethaak et al. 2002), pharmaceuticals in the environment have become an issue for both the scientific and the public community. During the last few years, our understanding of the fate and effects of pharmaceuticals in the environment has progressed significantly. However, there are still a number of uncertainties concerning the effects of pharmaceuticals on the environment and the assessment of potential exposure (e.g. Hanisch et al. 2004, Salomon 2005). These uncertainties will be addressed by the EU-project ‘Environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals’ (ERAPharm). This project, a specific targeted research project, is carried out within the priority ‘Global change and ecosystems’ of the 6th framework programme of the European Union. ERAPharm has started on 1st October 2004; the project duration is three years.     

Evaluating the performance of regional-scale photochemical modeling systems. Part III—Precursor predictions

Two regional-scale photochemical modeling systems, RAMS/UAM-V and MM5/MAQSIP, are used to simulate precursor concentrations for 4 June–31 August 1995 period. The time series of simulated and observed precursor concentrations are spectrally decomposed into intra-day, diurnal, synoptic, and longer-term (baseline) forcings and compared on each time scale. The results reveal that the observed and modeled precursor concentrations are uncorrelated on the intra-day time scale for both modeling systems while correlations are higher on longer time scales. In observations, the variability in NO_x concentrations is dominated by the diurnal and synoptic-scale processes, while NO_y is found to vary most on the synoptic time scale. In observations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), the variability is dominated by the diurnal and synoptic processes for both biogenic and anthropogenic hydrocarbons. The pattern seen in the observations, in terms of the relative contribution of different temporal components to the total variance, is better captured by the two modeling systems for NO_y than for NO_x and VOCs. There are differences between model predictions and observations in terms of the actual magnitudes of variances of each temporal component. These results suggest the need to cover longer time periods in modeling simulations to resolve longer-term processes, because they seem to play a dominant role in dictating the precursor variability.     

Continuous four-dimensional source attribution for the Berlin area during two days in July 1994. Part I: the new Euler–Lagrange-model system LaMM5

The multiple nested three-dimensional mesoscale Eulerian grid point model MM5 was directly coupled with a Lagrangian particle trajectory model in order to perform a four-dimensional source attribution for the area of Berlin based on the import probability density (IPD) distribution of the according receptor box. Within the resulting model system LaMM5 introduced here, the IPD distributions are not based on backward trajectories, which lack the recognition of the turbulent environment, but on the forward integration of a huge amount (order of Million per day) of particle releases according to an emission scenario which is approximately continuous in space and time. Hence the receptor import record yields an accordingly continuous IPD distribution. Much attention has been paid on spatial and temporal resolution at the interface between both model parts (online-coupling) and the interface itself has been extended by the turbulent quantities resulting from the higher-order turbulence closure of the Eulerian model part. LaMM5 is applied on an episode with high photochemical activity across Berlin at two consecutive days (25th and 26th of July in 1994) with varying meteorological conditions leading to an accordingly different source attribution. The main results are:

• •The decay of the Berlin IPD with increasing source-receptor distance and time appears in an exponential manner if only sources out of a constant level (z=25 m) are regarded.
• •Heterogeneous wind fields in time and space enhance the contributions (emissions) of nearby sources to the total import of the receptor in contrast to stationary wind fields which increase the scope of the IPD distribution in upstream direction.

There are further results from several additional sensitivity studies presented in a companion paper B (Part II).     

Prof. Dr. Harald Krug, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, berichtet über neue Entwicklungen im Bereich Nanotechnologie (Hrald.Krug@itg.fzk.de)

Neues aus der Nanotechnologie: Unser Korrespondent Berichtet

Prof. Dr. Harald Krug, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, berichtet über neue Entwicklungen im Bereich Nanotechnologie (Hrald.Krug@itg.fzk.de)     

Mercury in the Moji-Guaçu river basin,S.P-Brazil: the link between marginal lagoons and river contribution,assessed by 210Pb dating profiles

Total mercury content was evaluated in water and suspended sediment samples of the Moji-Gua?u river and in water and bottom sediment of its 3 marginal lagoons (Catingueiro, Barrinha, and Rio das Pedras), located downstream of the sampling point in the main channel. In all situations, low Hg concentrations were found in suspended and bottom sediments. Aluminum was used as a geochemical tracer to normalize the Hg concentrations in the sediment cores from the Rio das Pedras lagoon (r = 0.92). It was estimated that the Moji-Gua?u river transports up to 19 kg Hg yr(-1), 65% in the dissolved form and 35% adsorbed onto particulate matter. Following an acute toxic stage observed in the years 1970-1980, the basin has been restored to its original conditions mainly by natural recovery and a general reduction in Hg input to the ecosystem.     

Economic assessment of the negative impacts of ozone on crop yields and forest production. A case study of the estate Ostads Säteri in southwestern Sweden

Ground level ozone concentrations, in combination with the prevailing climate, at the estate Ostads S?teri in southwestern Sweden were estimated to reduce the yield of wheat and potato ranging between 5% and 10%. Occasionally, in years with the highest ozone concentrations and/or climatic conditions favoring high rates of ozone uptake to the leaves, yield loss levels above 10% may occur. Based on simple extrapolation, these ozone-induced reductions of crop yields at Ostads S?teri represent a potential total annual yield loss in Sweden in the range of 24.5 million Euro for wheat and 7.3 million Euro for potato, respectively. A simulation of forest growth at Ostad S?teri predicted that prevailing mean ozone exposure during 1993-2003 had the potential to reduce forest growth by 2.2% and the economic return of forest production by 2.6%. Using this value for extrapolation to the national level, the potential annual economic loss for Sweden due to negative impacts of ozone on forest production would be in the range of 56 million Euro (2004 prices).     

Evaluation of disinfection techniques in the treatment of advanced primary treated wastewater for Ciudad Juárez, México.

The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate the effectiveness of alternative disinfection techniques at the bench-scale level using wastewater from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, as model feed. This paper presents findings on the effectiveness of UV radiation, peracetic acid (PAA), chlorine dioxide (ClO2), and hypochlorous acid (HOCl) as disinfectants for advanced primary treatment (APT) plant effluent. Wastewater samples for bench-scale testing were collected from an agua negra ("black water") ditch that is part of the combined sewer system in Ciudad Juarez. Bench-scale simulations of the APT process used in Ciudad Juarez were run using a jar test apparatus and aluminum sulfate [Al2(SO4)3] as the coagulant. Jar test effluent from the bench system was used for disinfection testing. The Mexican discharge quality standard for total coliforms is 10 000/100 mL. Ultraviolet radiation met this standard at a dose of 47.5 mW-s/cm2. Ultraviolet disinfection proved reliable and effective despite the presence of suspended solids, and UV dose effectiveness expressed as a total coliforms survival ratio was best explained by a linear regression model. The ClO2 dose ranged from 10 to 20 mg/L and was only effective under ambient temperature conditions found during the winter months; PAA disinfection never met Mexican standards. Chlorine disinfection was effective at a dose range of 8 to 10 mg/L on samples collected at low temperature conditions. Since the completion of this research, Ciudad Juarez has discontinued the use of chlorine disinfection because of its high cost and ineffectiveness.     

Arsenic levels in the soils and macrophytes of the 'Entremuros' after the Aznalcóllar mine spill

In April 1998, a holding lagoon containing pyrite ore processing waste rich in arsenic, failed and released 5-6 million m(3) of highly polluting sludge and acidic water. Over 2700 ha of the internationally important Do?ana National and Natural Parks were contaminated. The area of Natural Park to sustain the greatest impact was known as the Entremuros. This paper presents 0-5 cm soil monitoring data from the Entremuros, from sampling campaigns 6 and 18 months after the disaster; as well as macrophyte root, rhizome and stem data from samples taken 18 months after the spill. Results show a clear, decreasing, north-south arsenic soil pollution trend, both 6 and 18 months after the spill, and suggest a small reduction in total soil arsenic levels occurred over time; although a significant increase in extractable arsenic is also noted. The two macrophytes (Typha dominguensis and Scirpus maritimus) studied herein are not accumulating arsenic in stem parts, however, accumulation of arsenic on iron plaque on the roots of these plants may be occurring. Further work is recommended in order to determine the ecotoxicological significance of this process in relation to the avian food-chains of Do?ana, and elsewhere.     

Does the wood-borer Sphaeroma terebrans (Crustacea) shape the distribution of the mangrove Rhizophora mucronata?

Field surveys were conducted to evaluate the occurrence of the isopod borer Sphaeroma terebrans (Crustacea) in aerial roots (prop roots) of the red mangrove Rhizophora mucronata on several different spatial scales (m to 100 km) in East Africa. In 6 out of 17 sites studied in Kenya and on Zanzibar Island, Tanzania, no signs of the isopods were found. When the isopods were present the frequency of infestation was high. Trees in muddy substrates in the lower intertidal, in particular at fringing channels or the open sea, showed high prevalence and intensity of infestation, with large part of their roots damaged or dead. Trees at the upper range of Rhizophora, in sandy and muddy areas, showed no signs of isopod infestation. This pattern recurred in mangrove forests on large spatial scales and there was no indication that island forests differed from the mainland forests. This indicates that sediment characteristics, vertical height in the tidal zone, and direct exposure to incoming water are the major factors controlling the abundance of S. terebrans. The isopod may play an important role in determining the lower intertidal limits of R. mucronata. Trees with numerous dead or nongrowing roots, as result of Sphaeroma attack, are likely to tumble due to a lack of root support and this is most likely to occur along channels at the lower, muddy intertidal. Tumbled trees were frequently observed along channels in the lower, muddy intertidal, but rarely in the mid or high intertidal. Implications for management of mangrove forests are discussed.     

Pollution resistance of mountain birch, Betula pubescens subsp. czerepanovii, near the copper-nickel smelter: natural selection or phenotypic acclimation?

Mountain birch, Betula pubescens subsp. czerepanovii (Orlova) Hamet-Ahti, is one of the very few woody plants surviving in the heavily polluted industrial barrens of the Kola Peninsula, north-western Russia. The present study was designed to find out whether long-lasting pollution impact caused selection of resistant birch genotypes, and to investigate possible trade-offs between pollution resistance and performance by exploring growth of birch seedlings in the different environments. In the reciprocal planting experiments, progenies of birches from polluted sites performed slightly better in the polluted environment (in terms of survival, leaf number, and leaf size) than progenies of birches from clean sites; and vice versa, in the clean environment progenies of birches from polluted sites performed slightly worse than progenies of birches from clean sites. However, this pattern was detected only in some of statistical tests, while the majority of comparisons showed no genotype or genotype by environment effects. Although some of the results indicate that long-lasting pollution impact may have increased pollution resistance of the affected populations by elimination of sensitive genotypes (survival selection), this conclusion should be considered tentative. The resistance did not reach the level sufficient to assure re-colonisation of polluted habitats: progenies of all trees completely died on the contaminated soils by the end of the first growth season. Therefore persistence of mountain birch populations near the strong polluters may be transient, being explained not only by higher resistance of the survivors, but also by phenotypic acclimatisation of mature trees to gradual increase in pollution.     

The Cramer’s rule for the parametrization of phenol and its hydroxylated byproducts: UV spectroscopy vs. high performance liquid chromatography

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - A linear algebra theorem like Cramer’s rule was used for the analysis of a system of equations obtained from UV spectroscopy, and results were...     

Can we take the pulse of environmental governance the way we take the pulse of nature? Applying the Freshwater Health Index in Latin America

Quantitative assessments have long been used to evaluate the condition of the natural environment, providing information for standard setting, adaptive management, and monitoring. Similar approaches have been developed to measure environmental governance, however, the end result (e.g., numeric indicators) belies the subjective and normative judgments that are involved in evaluating governance. We demonstrate a framework that makes this information transparent, through an application of the Freshwater Health Index in three different river basins in Latin America. Water Governance is measured on a 0–100 scale, using data derived from perception-based surveys administered to stakeholders. Results suggest that water governance is a primary area of concern in all three places, with low overall scores (Guandu-26, Alto Mayo-38, Bogotá-43). We conclude that this approach to measuring governance at the river basin scale provides valuable information to support monitoring and decision making, and we offer suggestions on how it can be improved.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01407-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.