Stationary and non-stationary autoregressive processes with external inputs for predicting trends in water quality

An autoregressive approach for the prediction of water quality trends in systems subject to varying meteorological conditions and short observation periods is discussed. Under these conditions, the dynamics of the system can be reliably forecast, provided their internal processes are understood and characterized independently of the external inputs. A methodology based on stationary and non-stationary autoregressive processes with external inputs (ARX) is proposed to assess and predict trends in hydrosystems which are at risk of contamination by organic and inorganic pollutants, such as pesticides or nutrients. The procedures are exemplified for the transport of atrazine and its main metabolite deethylatrazine in a small agricultural catchment in France. The approach is expected to be of particular value to assess current and future trends in water quality as part of the European Water Framework Directive and Groundwater Directives.     

潜水丁坝在湖滨带生态恢复中的应用

为保护和稳固湖滨带,在太湖梅梁湾进行生态恢复研究,并成功地实施了示范工程.沿湖滨带共构筑14道潜水丁坝,每道长23～28 m,坝间距为40～80 m,坝上种植芦苇和菰.构筑的潜水丁坝能经受住太湖常见大风袭击和湖流淘蚀,芦苇和菰等长势良好,湖滨原有芦苇带在一定水深范围内每年向湖延伸2～5 cm,坝上其他水生植物和底栖动物螺蛳等自然繁衍.潜水丁坝所起作用为利用自然力改变岸边流场,使泥沙在湖滨带预定沉积区内沉积,减缓岸边侵蚀和降低沉积物再悬浮,从而为湖滨带水生植物生长创造良好的生境条件.研究发现,在微风条件下,潜水丁坝群能有效拦截麇集于岸边的蓝绿藻,并在湖滨带进行消化降解.研究提出的构筑潜水丁坝并种植水生植物的方案为湖滨带生态恢复提供了一种新的探索途径.     

Using pollution roses to assess sulfur dioxide impacts in a township downwind of a petrochemical complex

This study used pollution roses to assess sulfur dioxide (SO₂) pollution in a township downwind of a large petrochemical complex based on data collected from a single air quality monitoring station. The pollution roses summarized hourly SO₂ concentrations at the Taishi air quality monitoring station, located approximately 7.8–13.0 km south of the No. 6 Naphtha Cracking Complex in Taiwan, according to 36 sectors of wind direction during the preoperational period (1995–1999) and two postoperational periods (2000–2004 and 2005–2009). The 99th percentile of hourly SO₂ concentrations 350? downwind from the complex increased from 28.9 ppb in the preoperational period to 86.2–324.2 ppb in the two postoperational periods. Downwind SO₂ concentrations were particularly high during 2005–2009 at wind speeds of 6–8 m/sec. Hourly SO₂ levels exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) health-based standard of 75 ppb only in the postoperational periods, with 65 exceedances from 0–10? and 330–350? downwind directions during 2001–2009. This study concluded that pollution roses based on a single monitoring station can be used to investigate source contributions to air pollution surrounding industrial complexes, and that it is useful to combine such directional methods with analyses of how pollution varies between different wind speeds, times of day, and periods of industrial development.

Implications: The pollution roses summarize SO₂ concentrations by wind direction and to investigate source contribution to air quality. Percentile statistics can catch pollution episodes occurring in a very short time at specific wind directions and speeds. The downwind areas have already exceeded regulated 1-hr SO₂ standard since the operation of the complex.     

BTX concentrations near a stage II implemented petrol station

A combined monitoring and dispersion modelling methodology was applied for assessing air quality at three different levels of proximity to the selected service station: (I) next to the fuel pumps, (II) in the surrounding environment, and (III) in the background. Continuous monitoring and passive sampling were used for achieving high temporal and spatial resolution, respectively. A Gaussian dispersion model (CALINE4) was used for assessing the road traffic contribution to the local concentrations under different meteorological conditions. It was established that Stage 2 vapour recovery reduces BTX concentrations not only near the pumps, but also in their surrounding environment. However, there is evidence that the efficiency of the system is wind speed dependent. The modelling simulation of the worst case wind scenario revealed the significance of local traffic emissions. It was shown that the traffic contribution even from a single road in the vicinity of the station can, under certain conditions, be higher than the contribution of the station itself to the local BTX levels. Finally, after comparison with previous studies, the concentrations measured near the service station (which was situated in a rural environment) appear to be lower than those observed in busy street canyons in city centres. It can be concluded, although Stage 2 recovery system effectively reduces working VOC losses in service stations, that it will only have a limited positive impact on local air quality if the service station is located in a heavily polluted area.     

Effects of basin nutrient discharge variations coupled with climate change on water quality in Lake Erhai,China

In Lake Erhai, water quality was affected by the basin nutrient discharge and climate change. To analyze the relationships between the water quality (total nitrogen [TN], total phosphorus [TP], chemical oxygen demand [CODmn], ammonia [NH₄], and trophic level index [TLI]) and basin nutrient discharge (TNd, TPd, and CODd) combined with climate changes (air temperature [AT], precipitation [pre], wind speed [wind], and sunshine hours [SHs]), the generalized additive model (GAM) was employed to explore the nonlinear relationships with their interactions using data sets ranging from 1999 to 2012. Our findings revealed that the water quality in Lake Erhai deteriorated in the early twentieth century, and the basin discharge and AT appeared significant (p?<?0.05) rising trends in a long time, while the precipitation decreased significantly (p?<?0.05) in the study period. Single-factor GAM results indicated that the basin nutrient discharge was the main explanatory factor for the variations of TN and TP in lake, while precipitation was the main driver for CODmn and NH₄. Besides, the water quality displayed nonlinear responses to the basin discharge, but all of the water quality variables went up as the emission levels increased in the lower range. The results showed that the water quality deteriorated in the lower rainfall, and TN rose as the AT increases, while TP was elevated accompanied by the ascending SHs there. The GAM interaction results suggested that the increase of AT and TPd had a promoting effect on TP in Lake Erhai. Stricter nutrient management measures should be implemented when the impacts of climate change are taken into account.

     

Improvement of Baltic proper water quality using large-scale ecological engineering

Eutrophication of the Baltic proper has led to impaired water quality, demonstrated by, e.g., extensive blooming of cyanobacteria during the premium summer holiday season and severe oxygen deficit in the deepwater. Sustainable improvements in water quality by the reduction of phosphorus (P) supplies will take several decades before giving full effects because of large P storages both in soils in the watershed and in the water column and bottom sediments of the Baltic proper. In this article it is shown that drastically improved water quality may be obtained within a few years using large-scale ecological engineering methods. Natural variations in the Baltic proper during the last decades have demonstrated how rapid improvements may be achieved. The present article describes the basic dynamics of P, organic matter, and oxygen in the Baltic proper. It also briefly discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different classes of methods of ecological engineering aimed at restoring the Baltic proper from eutrophication effects. Preliminary computations show that the P content might be halved within a few years if about 100 kg O2 s(-1) are supplied to the upper deepwater. This would require 100 pump stations, each transporting about 100 m3 s(-1) of oxygen-rich so-called winter water from about 50 to 125 m depth where the water is released as a buoyant jet. Each pump station needs a power supply of 0.6 MW. Offshore wind power technology seems mature enough to provide the power needed by the pump stations. The cost to install 100 wind-powered pump stations, each with 0.6 MW power, at about 125-m depth is about 200 million Euros.     

瘦西湖风光电能驱动的曝气生物接触氧化水净化系统结构与功能

在瘦西湖选择中试河段,利用太阳能风能绿色能源,研发了风光电能驱动的曝气生物接触氧化水净化系统。系统由风光互补发电子系统、曝气生物接触氧化子系统、植物生态子系统组成。风光电能驱动的曝气生物接触氧化水净化系统运行正常。按照景观娱乐用水水质标准进行水质监测,采用模糊综合评价与贴近度计算方法,进行了系统水净化功能评价。结果表明,在试验段原水水质低于景观水C类,经该系统水净化后,可以达到景观水B类。系统的开发与实验,探索了利用绿色能源河湖水净化的新途径。     

Homogeneity of the long-term urban data records

The factors causing apparent trends or discontinuities in long-term climatological observations are studied using urban records as examples. In addition to instrumental and methodological inhomogeneities urban records also include various progressive changes in the surroundings of the observation station. The effects of site changes on a record are also found alongside urbanisation effects. The apparent urban temperature trend is shown to be around 0.1°C per decade. Precipitation is generally greater at urban than at adjacent rural sites, but the differences are mostly due to the openness of neighbouring sites. Urbanisation tends to lower humidity and wind speed, but any effect on cloudiness are contradictory.     

Long-term variation in surface ozone and its precursors in Athens,Greece

INTENTION, GOAL, SCOPE, BACKGROUND: Photochemical pollution is a very complex process involving meteorological, topographic, emission and chemical parameters. The most important chemical mechanisms involved in the atmospheric process have already been identified and studied. However, many unknown parameters still exist because of the large number of participating chemical reactions. OBJECTIVE: The present study investigates the processes involved in the photochemical pollution effect of an urban station located in the greater area of the Athens basin and gives a plausible explanation for the different seasonal ozone development between that station and another rural one. Furthermore, the distribution of the mean monthly surface ozone observed at the urban station during 1987-2001 is examined in order to create a relevant forecasting tool. METHODS: Averaged hourly data of O3 and NOx observations monitored at the above mentioned stations, during 1987-2001, have been used in order to derive the daytime (7:00-15:00) values. Trajectories calculated by using a 2D-trajectory code and meteorological data, during the period 1988-1996, have also been used. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: At the urban station, the percentage negative trend of NO and NOx data in winter and summer is higher than that in spring and autumn, while the percentage ozone trend is maximum in the summer. On the contrary, the negative surface ozone trend at the rural station exhibits a minimum in summer and a maximum in autumn and winter. The mean seasonal wind-rose for the selected months shows that the northward wind flow dominates during June, the month of the lowest negative ozone trend in the rural station. Finally, the development of the forecasting tool shows that the mean monthly surface ozone data during the period (1987-2001) demonstrates a semi-log distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Air transport effect on the air pollution of the rural station (not blocked by mountains) is deduced as a possible reason for the different seasonal ozone development observed between the rural and the urban station. Finally, the discrepancies between the theoretical probabilities deduced by the model and the empirical ones appear to be very small, and the corresponding correlation coefficient is 0.99. RECOMMENDATION AND OUTLOOK: However, to interpret the aforementioned statistical results about the negative trends in ozone and its precursors, additional parameters can be taken into account. Changes in NOx concentrations, for instance, can result not only from changes in emissions or meteorological conditions. There might also be a contribution through changes in the atmospheric composition. A study of the contribution of changes in atmospheric composition to trends of observed NOx concentrations requires that a series of steps be taken (removal of meteorological influence in the time series, calculation of trends in OH concentrations, etc.).     

Summer air quality over an artificial lake

In the summer of 1998, the air quality (indicators: CO, NO, NO₂, O₃) above the water surface of the Lake Balderey (Essen, Ruhr area, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany), an artificial lake used for recreation purposes, was measured using the Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) remote measurement methods. The lake, with an area of 3 km² was created by damming the Ruhr and is surrounded by higher ground. In calm, bright weather conditions, this location results in a low-exchange situation (formation of temperature inversions, cold air dynamics) with a sustained impact on pollutant concentrations over the lake. The results of trace substance measurements (1/2 h mean values) were compared with values from comparison stations (suburban, high traffic and forest) located outside the area of the lake. In general, it was found that mean CO and NO concentrations over the lake were very low (0.3 ppm and 7.5 ppb, respectively). NO₂ values (15 ppb) were some 3.5 times higher than those recorded at the forest station and O₃ values, at 27 ppb, almost reached the same level as at the forest station (30 ppb). Mass flow densities as a function of wind direction, diurnal courses, differences between weekdays and weekends and comparisons with air quality standards are presented for the lake station.     

Lagrangian dispersion modeling of vehicular emissions from a highway in complex terrain

Transit traffic through the Austrian Alps is of major concern in government policy. Pollutant burdens resulting from such traffic are discussed widely in Austrian politics and have already led to measures to restrict traffic on transit routes. In the course of an environmental assessment study, comprehensive measurements were performed. These included air quality observations using passive samplers, a differential optical absorption spectroscopy system, a mobile and a fixed air quality monitoring station, and meteorological observations. As was evident from several previous studies, dispersion modeling in such areas of complex terrain and, moreover, with frequent calm wind conditions, is difficult to handle. Further, in the case presented here, different pollutant sources had to be treated simultaneously (e.g., road networks, exhaust chimneys from road tunnels, and road tunnel portals). No appropriate system for modeling all these factors has so far appeared in the literature. A prognostic wind field model coupled with a Lagrangian dispersion model is thus presented here and is designed to treat all these factors. A comparison of the modeling system with results from passive samplers and from a fixed air quality monitoring station proved the ability of the model to provide reasonable figures for concentration distributions along the A10.     

Eutrophication in a Chinese Context: Understanding Various Physical and Socio-Economic Aspects

Eutrophication is now a ubiquitous water quality impairment in China. The first step toward restoration of eutrophicated water bodies is a marked reduction of nutrient loadings in their drainage basins. However, the combination of a number of physical and socio-economic factors is now producing compounded increases in nutrient loads while the nutrient assimilation capacities of natural systems are decreasing. Meanwhile, most of the lakes in densely populated part of China are shallow and very susceptible to anthropogenic alteration. Therefore, in spite of ascending efforts in eutrophication control upward trends of algal blooms in both fresh and coastal waters have been observed for the past two decades. Huge knowledge gap exists in our understanding of the sources and pathways of nutrient losses to aquatic ecosystems. Successful water quality restoration of China's eutrophic waters relies not only on more resource input but also more emphasis on basic, integrated, and management-oriented research.     

Lagrangian Dispersion Modeling of Vehicular Emissions from a Highway in Complex Terrain

Abstract

Transit traffic through the Austrian Alps is of major concern in government policy. Pollutant burdens resulting from such traffic are discussed widely in Austrian politics and have already led to measures to restrict traffic on transit routes. In the course of an environmental assessment study, comprehensive measurements were performed. These included air quality observations using passive samplers, a differential optical absorption spectroscopy system, a mobile and a fixed air quality monitoring station, and meteorological observations. As was evident from several previous studies, dispersion modeling in such areas of complex terrain and, moreover, with frequent calm wind conditions, is difficult to handle. Further, in the case presented here, different pollutant sources had to be treated simultaneously (e.g., road networks, exhaust chimneys from road tunnels, and road tunnel portals). No appropriate system for modeling all these factors has so far appeared in the literature. A prognostic wind field model coupled with a Lagrangian dispersion model is thus presented here and is designed to treat all these factors. A comparison of the modeling system with results from passive samplers and from a fixed air quality monitoring station proved the ability of the model to provide reasonable figures for concentration distributions along the A10.     

干旱区地表石油污染物风蚀作用大气传输量估算研究

通过焉耆盆地石油开发区石油污染物水环境污染途径特点的分析 ,认为落地油将通过风蚀作用由大气传输以降尘的形式落入水体 ,对水环境产生影响。本文以土壤侵蚀的风洞实验求得污染源源强 ,采用高斯模式对地表风蚀作用的传输量进行估算 ,进而对石油开发区落地油通过大气传输途径对区域水环境 (博斯腾湖 )的影响进行了预测 ,建立了相应的模型。为人们了解干旱区石油污染物风蚀作用水环境污染影响提供了初步依据 ,对干旱区湖泊石油污染的全面防治提供了科学范式     

Modeling the influence of climate change on the mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Adriatic Sea

Climate forcing is forecasted to influence the Adriatic Sea region in a variety of ways, including increasing temperature, and affecting wind speeds, marine currents, precipitation and water salinity. The Adriatic Sea is intensively developed with agriculture, industry, and port activities that introduce pollutants to the environment. Here, we developed and applied a Level III fugacity model for the Adriatic Sea to estimate the current mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Sea, and to examine the effects of a climate change scenario on the distribution of these pollutants. The model’s performance was evaluated for three PCB congeners against measured concentrations in the region using environmental parameters estimated from the 20th century climate scenario described in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC, and using Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. We find that modeled fugacities of PCBs in air, water and sediment of the Adriatic are in good agreement with observations. The model indicates that PCBs in the Adriatic Sea are closely coupled with the atmosphere, which acts as a net source to the water column. We used model experiments to assess the influence of changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation, marine currents, particulate organic carbon and air inflow concentrations forecast in the IPCC A1B climate change scenario on the mass balance of PCBs in the Sea. Assuming an identical PCBs’ emission profile (e.g. use pattern, treatment/disposal of stockpiles, mode of entry), modeled fugacities of PCBs in the Adriatic Sea under the A1B climate scenario are higher because higher temperatures reduce the fugacity capacity of air, water and sediments, and because diffusive sources to the air are stronger.     

Air pollution characteristics associated with mesoscale atmospheric patterns in northwest continental Europe

An impact related daily air quality index (DAQx), calculated for 15 air quality monitoring stations (traffic, background, and industry) in Belgium, France, Germany and Luxembourg, was compared to mesoscale atmospheric patterns between 2001 and 2007. Meteorological conditions were described by the Hess and Brezowsky synoptic weather classification system and gridded data of the EU FP6 ENSEMBLES project of total precipitation and mean surface temperature. DAQx values indicate sufficient to poor air quality in the urban area of Brussels and at urban traffic stations, as well as satisfactory air quality at the background stations. The air quality index refers to more than 90% to the presence of high PM₁₀, O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. SO₂ and CO play only a minor role. The investigation of weather regimes indicates that zonal and mixed cyclonic circulation regimes are associated with better air quality than meridional and anticyclonic weather regimes. In general, weather regimes with high daily precipitation lead to better air quality than dryer air masses because of lower contribution of PM₁₀ to the air quality index. A trend analysis of weather regimes from 1978 to 2007 shows significant (α = 0.05) positive trends for weather classes associated with lower PM₁₀ concentrations. The results of a case study at a German station examining the relationship between PM₁₀ concentrations and local meteorological quantities (wind speed and precipitation) confirm the results of the regional analysis.     

Corona ion induced atmospheric potential gradient perturbations near high voltage power lines

High voltage power lines are known to produce corona ions that can be carried from the line by the wind, progressively attaching to ambient aerosol particles and causing fluctuations in the Earth’s atmospheric potential gradient. A fixed site monitoring station was installed near two power lines, which recorded the potential gradient at 1 s intervals and the ambient weather conditions every 10 min. The station ran continuously from January 2007 to December 2008, accumulating long-term data. Results from 2008 show an increase in potential gradient variability when a wind is blowing across the power lines towards the station, indicating that corona ions may be present in this environment.     

Evaluation of spatial-temporal variations and trends in surface water quality across a rural-suburban-urban interface

Water quality degradation is often a severe consequence of rapid economic expansion in developing countries. Methods to assess spatial-temporal patterns and trends in water quality are essential for guiding adaptive management efforts aimed at water quality remediation. Temporal and spatial patterns of surface water quality were investigated for 54 monitoring sites in the Wen-Rui Tang River watershed of eastern China to identify such patterns in water quality occurring across a rural-suburban-urban interface. Twenty physical and chemical water quality parameters were analyzed in surface waters collected once every 4–8 weeks from 2000 to 2010. Temporal and spatial variations among water quality parameters were assessed between seasons (wet/dry) and among major land use zones (urban/suburban/rural). Factor analysis was used to identify parameters that were important in assessing seasonal and spatial variations in water quality. Results revealed that parameters related to organic pollutants (dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxygen demand (manganese) (COD_Mn), and 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅)), nutrients (ammonia nitrogen (NH₄ ⁺-N), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP)), and salt concentration (electrical conductivity (EC)) were the most important parameters contributing to water quality variation. Collectively, they explained 70.9 % of the total variance. A trend study using the seasonal Kendall test revealed reductions in COD_Mn, BOD₅, NH₄ ⁺-N, petrol, V-phen, and EC concentrations over the 11-year study period. Cluster analysis was employed to evaluate variation among 14 sampling sites representative of dominant land use categories and indicated three, three, and four clusters based on organic, nutrient, and salt water quality characteristics, respectively. Factors that are typically responsible for water quality degradation (including population, topography, and land use) showed no strong correlation with water quality trends implying considerable point source inputs in the watershed. The results of this study help inform ongoing water quality remediation efforts by documenting trends in water quality across various land use zones.     

The effects of meteorology on ozone in urban areas and their use in assessing ozone trends

The United States Environmental Protection Agency issues periodic reports that describe air quality trends in the US. For some pollutants, such as ozone, both observed and meteorologically adjusted trends are displayed. This paper describes an improved statistical methodology for meteorologically adjusting ozone trends as well as characterizes the relationships between individual meteorological parameters and ozone. A generalized linear model that accommodates the nonlinear effects of the meteorological variables was fit to data collected for 39 major eastern US urban areas. Overall, the model performs very well, yielding R² statistics as high as 0.80. The analysis confirms that ozone is generally increasing with increasing temperature and decreasing with increasing relative humidity. Examination of the spatial gradients of these responses show that the effect of temperature on ozone is most pronounced in the north while the opposite is true of relative humidity. By including HYSPLIT-derived transport wind direction and distance in the model, it is shown that the largest incremental impact of wind direction on ozone occurs along the periphery of the study domain, which encompasses major NO_x emission sources.     

Variability of total ozone over India and its adjoining regions during 1997–2008

Total Ozone Concentration (TOC) data over nineteen stations around India (fifteen stations) and its adjoining regions (three stations in Pakistan and one station in Bangladesh) are investigated in the present analysis. The overpass satellite data for these nineteen stations, distributed in the latitude range from 8.48°N to 35.83°N and altitude range from 6 m to 2718 m are available from FTP Site. TOC data pertaining to the last twelve years from 1997 to 2008 were obtained from two different instruments: Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on Earth Probe and AURA satellites respectively. The analysis is divided into two phases, each of six years duration; from 1997 to 2002 and from 2003 to 2008. Seasonal average values of TOC are calculated for the two phases and compared to study the spatial distribution (latitude, longitude and station altitude) and the trends of TOC variation. In general a decreasing tendency in ozone concentration was found everywhere. The average yearly rate of the TOC decrease was ?0.363 DU over the entire region during the period 1997–2008. The trends in the TOC distribution and its decrease with latitude were found parabolic, with a deep near 14.7°N and 12.1°N for the two phases respectively. The decrease was maximum at lower latitude (?1.87%) and minimum (?0.25%) at higher latitude. Weak oscillatory trends in the TOC distribution and its decrease with longitude were found. A deep in the longitudinal variation was observed in each phase, at 77.4°E during 1997–2002 and at 78.2°E during 2003–2008. The minimum centre of the ozone distribution is therefore shifted from 14.7°N, 77.4°E to 12.1°N, 78.2°E over the last twelve years, and in general a meridional line near 78°E appears to divide symmetrically the TOC distribution over this region. Strong oscillatory trends in the seasonal average of TOC distribution and its decrease with station altitude are observed during the two phases. The inversion of high correlation coefficients between the seasonal average TOC and station altitude in the range 6 m to 2718 m indicate the existence of four transition layers aloft, near 200, 740, 1670, and 2400 m in the lower troposphere. Emission of precursor pollutants together with complex wind pattern around the marine boundary appears to have strong potentials to modulate tropospheric ozone and the observed spatial distribution of TOC may be expected.