Comparison of regional and global land cover products and the implications for biogenic emission modeling

Accurate estimates of biogenic emissions are required for air quality models that support the development of air quality management plans and attainment demonstrations. Land cover characterization is an essential driving input for most biogenic emissions models. This work contrasted the global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product against a regional land cover product developed for the Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) over four climate regions in eastern Texas, where biogenic emissions comprise a large fraction of the total inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and land cover is highly diverse. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) was utilized to investigate the influences of land cover characterization on modeled isoprene and monoterpene emissions through changes in the standard emission potential and emission activity factor, both separately and simultaneously. In Central Texas, forest coverage was significantly lower in the MODIS land cover product relative to the TCEQ data, which resulted in substantially lower estimates of isoprene and monoterpene emissions by as much as 90%. Differences in predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions associated with variability in land cover characterization were primarily caused by differences in the standard emission potential, which is dependent on plant functional type. Photochemical modeling was conducted to investigate the effects of differences in estimated biogenic emissions associated with land cover characterization on predicted ozone concentrations using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). Mean differences in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) ozone concentrations were 2 to 6 ppb with maximum differences exceeding 20 ppb. Continued focus should be on reducing uncertainties in the representation of land cover through field validation.

Implications: Uncertainties in the estimation of biogenic emissions associated with the characterization of land cover in global and regional data products were examined in eastern Texas. Misclassification between trees and low-growing vegetation in central Texas resulted in substantial differences in isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates and predicted ground-level ozone concentrations. Results from this study indicate the importance of land cover validation at regional scales.     

Measurement and analysis of atmospheric concentrations of isoprene and its reaction products in central Texas

A field experiment was conducted in August 1998 to investigate the concentrations of isoprene and isoprene reaction products in the surface and mixed layers of the atmosphere in Central Texas. Measured near ground-level concentrations of isoprene ranged from 0.3 (lower limit of detection – LLD) to 10.2 ppbv in rural regions and from 0.3 to 6.0 ppbv in the Austin urban area. Rural ambient formaldehyde levels ranged from 0.4 ppbv (LLD) to 20.0 ppbv for 160 rural samples collected, while the observed range was smaller at Austin (0.4–3.4 ppbv) for a smaller set of samples (37 urban samples collected). Methacrolein levels did not vary as widely, with rural measurements from 0.1 ppbv (LLD) to 3.7 ppbv and urban concentrations varying between 0.2 and 5.7 ppbv. Isoprene flux measurements, calculated using a simple box model and measured mixed-layer isoprene concentrations, were in reasonable agreement with emission estimates based on local ground cover data. Ozone formation attributable to biogenic hydrocarbon oxidation was also calculated. The calculations indicated that if the ozone formation occurred at low VOC/NO_x ratios, up to 20 ppbv of ozone formed could be attributable to biogenic photooxidation. In contrast, if the biogenic hydrocarbon reaction products were formed under low NO_x conditions, ozone production attributable to biogenics oxidation would be as low as 1 ppbv. This variability in ozone formation potentials implies that biogenic emissions in rural areas will not lead to peak ozone levels in the absence of transport of NO_x from urban centers or large rural NO_x sources.     

Secondary organic aerosol importance in the future atmosphere

In order to investigate the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) response to changes in biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions in the future atmosphere and how important will SOA be relative to the major anthropogenic aerosol component (sulfate), the global three-dimensional chemistry/transport model TM3 has been used. Emission estimates of biogenic VOC (BVOC) and anthropogenic gases and particles from the literature for the year 2100 have been adopted.According to our present-day model simulations, isoprene oxidation produces 4.6 Tg SOA yr⁻¹, that is less than half of the 12.2 Tg SOA yr⁻¹ formed by the oxidation of other BVOC. In the future, nitrate radicals and ozone become more important than nowadays, but remain minor oxidants for both isoprene and aromatics. SOA produced by isoprene is estimated to almost triple, whereas the production from other BVOC more than triples. The calculated future SOA burden change, from 0.8 Tg at present to 2.0 Tg in the future, is driven by changes in emissions, oxidant levels and pre-existing particles. The non-linearity in SOA formation and the involved chemical and physical feedbacks prohibit the quantitative attribution of the computed changes to the above-mentioned individual factors. In 2100, SOA burden is calculated to exceed that of sulfate, indicating that SOA might become more important than nowadays. These results critically depend on the biogenic emissions and thus are subject to the high uncertainty associated with these emissions estimated due to the insufficient knowledge on plant response to carbon dioxide changes. Nevertheless, they clearly indicate that the change in oxidants and primary aerosol caused by human activities can contribute as much as the change in BVOC emissions to the increase of the biogenic SOA production in the future atmosphere.     

Improved land cover and emission factors for modeling biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions from Hong Kong

This paper describes a study of local biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) emissions from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). An improved land cover and emission factor database was developed to estimate Hong Kong emissions using MEGAN, a BVOC emission model developed by Guenther et al. (2006). Field surveys of plant species composition and laboratory measurements of emission factors were combined with other data to improve existing land cover and emission factor data. The BVOC emissions from Hong Kong were calculated for 12 consecutive years from 1995 to 2006. For the year 2006, the total annual BVOC emissions were determined to be 12,400 metric tons or 9.82 × 10⁹ g C (BVOC carbon). Isoprene emission accounts for 72%, monoterpene emissions account for 8%, and other VOCs emissions account for the remaining 20%. As expected, seasonal variation results in a higher emission in the summer and a lower emission in the winter, with emission predominantly in day time. A high emission of isoprene occurs for regions, such as Lowest Forest-NT North, dominated by broadleaf trees. The spatial variation of total BVOC is similar to the isoprene spatial variation due to its high contribution. The year to year variability in emissions due to weather was small over the twelve-year period (?1.4%, 2006 to 1995 trendline), but an increasing trend in the annual variation due to an increase in forest land cover can be observed (+7%, 2006 to 1995 trendline). The results of this study demonstrate the importance of accurate land cover inputs for biogenic emission models and indicate that land cover change should be considered for these models.     

Modelling study of the impact of isoprene and terpene biogenic emissions on European ozone levels

The impact of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions on European ozone distributions has not yet been evaluated in a comprehensive way. Using the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model the variability of surface ozone levels from April to September for 4 years (1997, 2000, 2001, 2003) resulting from biogenic emissions is investigated. It is shown that BVOC emissions increased on average summer daily ozone maxima over Europe by 2.5 ppbv (5%). The impact is most significant in Portugal (up to 15 ppbv) and in the Mediterranean region (about 5 ppbv), being smaller in the northern part of Europe (1.3 ppbv north of 47.5°N). The average impact is rather similar for the three summers (1997, 2000, 2001), but is much larger during the extraordinarily hot summer of 2003. Here, the biogenic contribution to surface ozone doubles compared to other years at some locations. Interaction with anthropogenic NO_x emissions is found to be a key process for ozone production of biogenic precursors. Comparing the impact of the state-of-the-art BVOC emission inventory compiled within the NatAir project and an earlier, widely used BVOC inventory derived from Simpson et al. [1999. Inventorying emissions from nature in Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research 104(D7), 8113–8152] on surface ozone shows that ozone produced from biogenic precursors is less in central and northern Europe but in certain southern areas much higher e.g. Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean Sea. The uncertainty in the regionally averaged impact of BVOC on ozone build-up in Europe is estimated to be ±50%.     

Applications of satellite remote sensing data for estimating biogenic emissions in southeastern Texas

The sensitivity of biogenic emission estimates and air quality model predictions to the characterization of land use/land cover (LULC) in southeastern Texas was examined using the Global Biosphere Emissions and Interactions System (GloBEIS) and the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). A LULC database was recently developed for the region based on source imagery collected by the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper-Plus sensor between 1999 and 2003, and field data for land cover classification, species identification and quantification of biomass densities.  Biogenic emissions estimated from the new LULC data set showed good general agreement in their spatial distribution, but were approximately 40% lower than emissions from the LULC data set currently used by the State of Texas, primarily because of differences in the biomass estimates of key species such as Quercus. Predicted ozone mixing ratios using the biogenic emissions produced from the new LULC data set were as much as 26 ppb lower in some areas on some days, depending on meteorological conditions. Satellite data and image classification techniques provide useful tools for mapping and monitoring changes in LULC. However, field validation is necessary to link species and biomass densities to the classification system used for accurate biogenic emissions estimates, especially in areas such as riparian corridors that contain dense spatial coverage of key species.     

Impact of biogenic VOC emissions on a tropical cyclone-related ozone episode in the Pearl River Delta region,China

For quantitative estimate of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (BVOCs) in South China and their impact on the regional atmospheric chemistry, a 3-day tropical cyclone-related ozone episode was modeled using chemical transport model CMAQ, which was driven by the mesoscale meteorological model MM5. Hourly biogenic emission inventories were constructed using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. The simulation results show good agreement with observation data in air temperature, ozone and NO_x levels. The estimated biogenic emissions of isoprene, terpene, and other reactive VOCs (ORVOCs) during this tropical cyclone-related episode are 8500, 3400, and 11 300 ton day⁻¹, respectively. The ratio of isoprene to the total BVOCs was 36.4%. Two test runs were carried out with one incorporated biogenic emissions and the other without. The simulations show that Guangdong province, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, was the area most reactive to biogenic emissions in South China. More ozone was produced in all layers under 1500 m when biogenic emissions were included in comparison to that without BVOCs. The net formation of ozone from 9:00 to 15:00 h was the highest near the surface and could reach 38 ppb, which include 4 ppb attributed to biogenic impact. The enhanced ozone due to biogenic emissions first appeared in the PRD region and slowly spread to a greater area in South China. Process analysis indicated that the surface ozone budget was dominated by the vertical transport and dry deposition. The horizontal transport and gas-phase chemical production were relatively small in the surface layer. Presumably, ozone was produced in upper layers within the atmospheric boundary layer and convected down to surface where it is destroyed. When BVOCs was included, apart from the enhancement of gas-phase chemical production of ozone, both the surface deposition and vertical transport were also augmented.     

Increase in summer European ozone amounts due to climate change

The local and regional distribution of pollutants is significantly influenced by weather patterns and variability along with the spatial patterns of emissions. Therefore, climatic changes which affect local meteorological conditions can alter air quality. We use the regional air quality model CHIMERE driven by meteorological fields from regional climate change simulations to investigate changes in summer ozone mixing ratios over Europe under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Using three 30-year simulation periods, we find that daily peak ozone amounts as well as average ozone concentrations substantially increase during summer in future climate conditions. This is mostly due to higher temperatures and reduced cloudiness and precipitation over Europe and it leads to a higher number of ozone events exceeding information and warning thresholds. Our results show a pronounced regional variability, with the largest effects of climate change on ozone concentrations occurring over England, Belgium, Germany and France. The temperature-driven increase in biogenic emissions appears to enhance the ozone production and isoprene was identified as the most important chemical factor in the ozone sensitivity. We also find that summer ozone levels in future climate projections are similar to those found during the exceptionally warm and dry European summer of 2003. Our simulations suggest that in future climate conditions summer ozone might pose a much more serious threat to human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems in Europe, so that the effects of climate trends on pollutant amounts should be considered in future emission control measures.     

The effects of increasing atmospheric ozone on biogenic monoterpene profiles and the formation of secondary aerosols

Monoterpenes are biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) which play an important role in plant adaptation to stresses, atmospheric chemistry, plant–plant and plant–insect interactions. In this study, we determined whether ozonolysis can influence the monoterpenes in the headspace of cabbage. The monoterpenes were mixed with an air-flow enriched with 100, 200 or 400 ppbv of ozone (O₃) in a Teflon chamber. The changes in the monoterpene and O₃ concentrations, and the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) were determined during ozonolysis. Furthermore, the monoterpene reactions with O₃ and OH were modelled using reaction kinetics equations. The results showed that all of the monoterpenes were unequally affected: α-thujene, sabinene and d-limonene were affected to the greatest extend, whereas the 1,8-cineole concentration did not change. In addition, plant monoterpene emissions reduced the O₃ concentration by 12–24%. The SOA formation was dependent on O₃ concentration. At 100 ppbv of O₃, virtually no new particles were formed but clear SOA formation was observed at the higher ozone concentrations. The modelled results showed rather good agreements for α-pinene and 1,8-cineole, whereas the measured concentrations were clearly lower compared to modelled values for sabinene and limonene. In summary, O₃-quenching by monoterpenes occurs beyond the boundary layer of leaves and results in a decreased O₃ concentration, altered monoterpene profiles and SOA formation.     

Contribution of isoprene to formaldehyde and ozone formation based on its oxidation products measurement in Beijing,China

The atmospheric mixing ratios of methacrolein (MACR) and methyl vinyl ketone (MVK), the two specific products from isoprene oxidation in the atmosphere, were measured in Beijing from March to November, 2006. Distinct amounts of MACR and MVK were detected during vegetable growing seasons from April to October with ambient levels of 0.11–0.67 ppbv and 0.19–1.36 ppbv, respectively. The reacted isoprene and its ozone formation potentials (OFPs) in Beijing were evaluated in the range of 0.49–3.46 ppbv and 6.4–44.7 ppbv, respectively, from April to October. OFP of the reacted isoprene accounted for 10.6–23.6% of the total OFPs of VOCs (including carbonyls and isoprene) and 6.38–29.9% of the photo-chemically produced ozone. The maximum OFP of the original emitted isoprene prior to its photo-oxidation was calculated as 56.0 ppbv in August. The contribution from the reacted isoprene in Beijing to HCHO formation was also estimated to be in the range of 0.35–2.45 ppbv from April to October, which accounted for 4.6–11.5% of ambient HCHO.     

Effects of temperature and land use on predictions of biogenic emissions in Eastern Texas,USA

Accurate estimates of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions are critical for air quality planning in areas such as Eastern Texas where biogenic emissions comprise a significant fraction of the total volatile organic compound inventory. Uncertainties in biogenic volatile organic chemical emission estimates associated with different land use databases, surface temperature databases, and temperature interpolation methods were quantified and compared. The sensitivity of isoprene emissions to land use classification was investigated by comparing predictions based on land use data recently compiled for Eastern Texas to those based on the Biogenic Emissions Landcover Database version 3.1 (BELD3). Previous studies have only made these comparisons with the previous BELD version 2 database. Isoprene emission increased throughout much of Eastern Texas because areas classified as agricultural or savannah in BELD3 were more accurately classified as Post Oak, Live Oak, mesquite, and juniper in the new database. These results indicate the need for land use studies in areas poorly characterized in the BELD3. The sensitivity of isoprene emission estimates to uncertainties in surface temperatures were investigated by comparing predictions based on two different temperature databases and three different interpolation techniques. Spatial interpolations of surface temperatures collected at available Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations in Houston, Austin, and Dallas were similar to the spatial interpolations of surface temperatures obtained from the ETA Data Assimilation System (EDAS). As a result, substantial variations in isoprene emissions were not observed over the majority of the modeling domain; however, differences of 4 F over localized regions produced a 35% difference in isoprene emissions. Comparisons between the isoprene emissions of the three interpolation methods sometimes revealed large variations, with maximum temperature differences of 4 F resulting in 60% differences in isoprene emissions in areas with the highest isoprene emissions. It was noted that the ASOS stations were clustered in urban areas and not in areas with the highest biogenic emissions. More ambient temperature monitors need to be located in rural locations to provide robust estimates of biogenic emissions and facilitate validation of interpolated temperature fields.     

Modeling the influence of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions on ozone concentration during summer season in the Kinki region of Japan

Tropospheric ozone adversely affects human health and vegetation, and biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emission has potential to influence ozone concentration in summer season. In this research, the standard emissions of isoprene and monoterpene from the vegetation of the Kinki region of Japan, estimated from growth chamber experiments, were converted into hourly emissions for July 2002 using the temperature and light intensity data obtained from results of MM5 meteorological model. To investigate the effect of BVOC emissions on ozone production, two ozone simulations for one-month period of July 2002 were carried out. In one simulation, hourly BVOC emissions were included (BIO), while in the other one, BVOC emissions were not considered (NOBIO). The quantitative analyses of the ozone results clearly indicate that the use of spatio-temporally varying BVOC emission improves the prediction of ozone concentration. The hourly differences of monthly-averaged ozone concentrations between BIO and NOBIO had the maximum value of 6 ppb at 1400 JST. The explicit difference appeared in urban area, though the place where the maximum difference occurred changed with time. Overall, BVOC emissions from the forest vegetation strongly affected the ozone generation in the urban area.     

Ambient isoprene and monoterpene concentrations in a Greek fir (Abies Borisii-regis) forest. Reconciliation with emissions measurements and effects on measured OH concentrations

Ambient biogenic hydrocarbons were monitored in a forested site in Northern Greece during the summer of 1997 as part of the AEROBIC campaign. Significant concentrations of isoprene were observed, consistent with enclosure measurements presented in the previous paper (Harrison et al., 2001, Atmospheric Environment 35, 4687–4698). In addition, significant concentrations of monoterpenes were observed (nighttime maximum of 2.9 ppbv for total monoterpene concentration). Isoprene and the monoterpenes exhibited pronounced, but different, diurnal cycles which are interpreted via enclosure and OH measurements. The combination of relatively high emission rates at a time when OH concentrations are significantly lower leads to peak isoprene concentrations (∼3.0 ppbv) during the late evening. The temporal behaviour of the biogenic hydrocarbons is used to interpret the radical chemistry at the site and may indicate the presence of high (∼1×10⁶ cm⁻³) nighttime concentrations of the OH radical. Biogenic hydrocarbon measurements were supported by a range of organic and inorganic measurements which are also presented in this paper.     

A land use database and examples of biogenic isoprene emission estimates for the state of Texas, USA

Using data from a variety of sources, land use and vegetation in Texas were mapped with a spatial resolution of approximately 1 km. Over 600 classifications were used to characterize the land use and land cover throughout the state and field surveys were performed to assign leaf biomass densities, by species, to the land cover classifications. The total leaf biomass densities associated with these land use classifications ranged from 0 to 556 g/m², with the highest assigned total and oak leaf biomass densities located in central and eastern Texas. The land cover data were used as input to a biogenic emissions model, GLOBEIS2. Estimates of biogenic emissions of isoprene based on GLOBEIS2 and the new land cover data showed significant differences when compared to biogenic isoprene emissions estimated using previous land cover data and emission estimation procedures. For example, for one typical domain in eastern Texas, total daily isoprene emissions increased by 38% with the new modeling tools. These results may ultimately affect the way in which ozone and other photochemical pollutants are modeled and evaluated in the state of Texas.     

Sensitivity of biogenic secondary organic aerosols to future climate change at regional scales: An online coupled simulation

Biogenic emissions and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are strongly dependent on climatic conditions. To understand the SOA levels and their sensitivity to future climate change in the United States (U.S.), we present a modeling work with the consideration of SOA formation from the oxidation of biogenic emissions with atmospheric oxidants (e.g., OH, O₃, and NO₃). The model simulation for the present-day climate is evaluated against satellite and ground-based aerosol measurements. Although the model underestimates aerosol concentrations over the northwestern U.S. due to the lack of fire emissions in the model simulations, overall, the SOA results agree well with previous studies. Comparing with the available measurements of organic carbon (OC) concentrations, we found that the amount of SOA in OC is significant, with the ratio ranging from 0.1 to 0.5/0.6. The enhanced modeling system driven by global climate model output was also applied for two three-year one-month simulations (July, 2001–2003 and 2051–2053) to examine the sensitivity of SOA to future climate change. Under the future two emissions scenarios (A1B and A2), future temperature changes are predicted to increase everywhere in the U.S., but with different degrees of increase in different regions. As a result of climate change in the future, biogenic emissions are predicted to increase everywhere, with the largest increase (～20%) found in the southeastern and northwestern U.S. under the A1B scenario. Changes in SOA are not identical with those in biogenic emissions. Under the A1B scenario, the biggest increase in SOA is found over Texas, with isoprene emissions being the major contributor to SOA formation. The range of change varies from 5% over the southeast region to 26% over Texas. The changes in either biogenic emissions or SOA under the two climate scenarios are different due to the differences in climatic conditions. Our results also suggest that future SOA concentrations are also influenced by several other factors such as the partitioning coefficients, the atmospheric oxidative capability, primary organic carbon aerosols and anthropogenic emissions.     

Estimate of initial isoprene contribution to ozone formation potential in Beijing, China

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are important precursors of tropospheric ozone formation. Isoprene contributions to ozone formation by using ambient mixing ratios are generally underestimated because of rapid chemical losses. In this study, ambient mixing ratios of major VOC species were continuously measured at Peking university (PKU) and YUFA, urban and sub-urban sites in Beijing, the city that will host 2008 Olympic Games. The observed mixing ratios of methyl vinyl ketone (MVK), methacrolein (MACR) and isoprene were used to derive the mixing ratios of initial isoprene, which means the ambient isoprene level before it undergoes any photochemical reaction with OH radicals. The average mixing ratios of initial isoprene were 3.3±1.6 and 2.9±1.5 ppbv at PKU and YUFA sites, respectively. The percentages of initial isoprene in total initial VOCs were 10.8% at PKU site and 11.4% at YUFA site, in reasonable agreement with the isoprene contribution in total VOC emissions as derived from source inventories. Maximum increment reactivity (MIR) was used to evaluate the ozone formation potential (OFP) for major VOC species. The OFP for initial isoprene accounted for 23% of the total OFPs for all measured species, compared to 11% using ambient mixing ratios of isoprene at PKU site. Similarly, at YUFA site, the ambient measured isoprene and initial isoprene contributed 10% and 22%, respectively, to the OFPs for total measured VOCs. It seems that isoprene has similar contribution to ozone formation at both sites in Beijing city.     

An examination of oxidant amounts on secondary organic aerosol formation and aging

The effect of HO_x radicals (OH and HO₂) and ozone (O₃) on aerosol formation and aging has been studied. Experiments were performed in presence as well as in absence of oxygen in a flow-through chamber at 299 K for three organic precursor gases, isoprene, α-pinene and m-xylene. The HO_x source was the UV photolysis of humidified air or nitrogen and was measured with a GTHOS (Ground-based Tropospheric Hydrogen Oxides Sensor). The precursor gases concentration was monitored with an online GC-FID. The aerosol mass was then quantified by a Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance (TEOM). Typical oxidant mixing ratios were (0–4.5) ppm for O₃, 200 pptv for OH and 3 ppbv for HO₂. A simple kinetics model is used to infer the aerosol production mechanism. In the present of O₃ (or O₂), the SOA yields were 0.46, 0.036 and 0.12 for α-pinene with an initial concentration of 100 ppbv (RH = 37%), isoprene with an initial concentration of 177 ppbv (RH = 50%) and m-xylene with an initial concentration of 100 ppbv (RH = 37%), respectively. When the chosen precursor gases reacted with HO_x in the absence of O₃, the maximum SOA yields were significantly increased by factors of 1.6 for isoprene 1.1 for α-pinene, and 3 for m-xylene respectively. The comparison of the calculated and measured potential aerosol mass concentrations as function of time shows that presence of ozone or oxygen can influence the aerosol yield and the absence of ozone or oxygen in the system resulted in high concentrations of its organic aerosol products.     

Natural emissions for regional modeling of background ozone and particulate matter and impacts on emissions control strategies

Natural emissions adopted in current regional air quality modeling are updated to better describe natural background ozone and PM concentrations for North America. The revised natural emissions include organosulfur from the ocean, NO from lightning, sea salt, biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors, and pre-industrial levels of background methane. The model algorithm for SOA formation was also revised. Natural background ozone concentrations increase by up to 4 ppb in annual average over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico due to added NO from lightning while the revised biogenic emissions produced less ozone in the central and western US. Natural PM_2.5 concentrations generally increased with the revised natural emissions. Future year (2018) simulations were conducted for several anthropogenic emission reduction scenarios to assess the impact of the revised natural emissions on anthropogenic emission control strategies. Overall, the revised natural emissions did not significantly alter the ozone responses to the emissions reductions in 2018. With revised natural emissions, ozone concentrations were slightly less sensitive to reducing NOx in the southeastern US than with the current natural emissions due to higher NO from lightning. The revised natural emissions have little impact on modeled PM_2.5 responses to anthropogenic emission reductions. However, there are substantial uncertainties in current representations of natural sources in air quality models and we recommend that further study is needed to refine these representations.     

The sensitivity of modeled ozone to the temporal distribution of point, area, and mobile source emissions in the eastern United States

Ozone remains one of the most recalcitrant air pollution problems in the US. Hourly emissions fields used in air quality models (AQMs) generally show less temporal variability than corresponding measurements from continuous emissions monitors (CEM) and field campaigns would imply. If emissions control scenarios to reduce emissions at peak ozone forming hours are to be assessed with AQMs, the effect of emissions' daily variability on modeled ozone must be understood. We analyzed the effects of altering all anthropogenic emissions' temporal distributions by source group on 2002 summer-long simulations of ozone using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) v4.5 and the Carbon Bond IV (CBIV) chemical mechanism with 12 km resolution. We find that when mobile source emissions were made constant over the course of a day, 8-h maximum ozone predictions changed by ±7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in many urban areas on days when ozone concentrations greater than 80 ppbv were simulated in the base case. Increasing the temporal variation of point sources resulted in ozone changes of +6 and −6 ppbv, but only for small areas near sources. Changing the daily cycle of mobile source emissions produces substantial changes in simulated ozone, especially in urban areas at night; results suggest that shifting the emissions of NO_x from day to night, for example in electric powered vehicles recharged at night, could have beneficial impacts on air quality.