Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agree-ing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as “equitable”. Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C

As part of the Paris climate agreement, countries have submitted (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which includes greenhouse gas reduction proposals beyond 2020. In this paper, we apply the IMAGE integrated assessment model to estimate the annual abatement costs of achieving the NDC reduction targets, and the additional costs if countries would take targets in line with keeping global warming well below 2 °C and “pursue efforts” towards 1.5 °C. We have found that abatement costs are very sensitive to socio-economic assumptions: under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 (SSP3) assumptions of slow economic growth, rapidly growing population, and high inequality, global abatement costs of achieving the unconditional NDCs are estimated at USD135 billion by 2030, which is more than twice the level as under the more sustainable socio-economic assumptions of SSP1. Furthermore, we project that the additional costs of full implementation of the conditional NDCs are substantial, ranging from 40 to 55 billion USD, depending on socio-economic assumptions. Of the ten major emitting economies, Brazil, Canada and the USA are projected to have the highest cots as share of GDP to implement the conditional NDCs, while the costs for Japan, China, Russia, and India are relatively low. Allowing for emission trading could decrease global costs substantially, by more than half for the unconditional NDCs and almost by half for the conditional NDCs. Finally, the required effort in terms of abatement costs of achieving 2030 emission levels consistent with 2 °C pathways would be at least three times higher than the costs of achieving the conditional NDCs – even though reductions need to be twice as much. For 1.5 °C, the costs would be 5–6 times as high.     

Dynamic equity carbon permit allocation scheme to limit global warming to two degrees

Significant international collaboration is required to limit global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Equity is the foundation of cooperation, and therefore, this study proposed a new dynamic carbon permit allocation scheme based on four principles: equality, historical responsibility, capability, and future development opportunities. Decision makers could have different preferences for allocating carbon permits, therefore, four equity rules or indicators (equality, responsibility, capacity, and sovereignty) were assigned different weights. Based on the global carbon budget of the 2 °C target, emission permits were calculated and relevant economic implications analyzed using the Global Change Assessment Model. Results indicated that developed countries should reduce emissions immediately, while allowances for developing regions could permit an initial increase in emissions until peaking. Applying different weights to the indicators resulted in multifarious regional allowances. Developed regions would benefit from the “preferring sovereignty” scenario and most developing countries would benefit under the “preferring responsibility” and “preferring capacity” scenarios. Compared with the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, this study found that in the short term, developed countries might insist on sovereignty as the preferred indicator. However, preferring sovereignty would place substantial mitigation pressures on developing countries in the long term. Therefore, in addressing global climate change, a dynamic choice in the weighting distribution for different indicators might be conducive to international agreement. Furthermore, a market-based trading instrument could help all participants both mitigate global climate change by reducing regional and global costs and facilitate mitigation capital flow from developed to less developed regions.     

How robust is public support for unilateral climate policy?

Most governments emphasize the need for reciprocal (“give and take”) international commitments in global climate policy. Nonetheless, existing public opinion polls indicate strong support by individual citizens for unilateral climate policies as well. This raises the question of whether governments could, without risking electoral punishment, afford to pursue more ambitious unilateral climate policies, or whether surveys may have overestimated support for unilateralism due to measurement problems. Based on conjoint and framing experiments embedded in representative surveys in the world's two largest democracies, India and the United States, we engage in a critical re-assessment of earlier survey results. We find robust public support for unilateral climate policy in both countries. Such support declines with increasing costs and increases with growing co-benefits and problem solving effectiveness. We also find, however, that policy conditionality and possible institutional design mechanisms against free-riding by other states (which make the policy “less unilateral” by providing for reciprocation) play no significant role when citizens form their preferences with respect to climate policy. Neither is public support affected by whether policies focus on adaptation (which limits benefits to the investing country) or mitigation (which benefits all countries globally). Overall, these findings suggest that, in view of very slow progress in global climate policy, governments of rich and poor countries could politically afford to push ahead with more ambitious unilateral climate policies.     

Reduction targets and abatement costs of developing countries resulting from global and developed countries’ reduction targets by 2050

The European Union (EU) has advocated an emission reduction target for developed countries of 80% to 95% below the 1990 level by 2050, and a global reduction target of 50%. Developing countries have resisted the inclusion of these targets in both the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements. This paper analyses what these targets would imply for emission targets, abatement costs and energy consumption of developing countries, taking into account the conditional emission reduction pledges for 2020. An 80% reduction target for developed countries would imply more stringent per capita emission targets for developing countries than developed countries by 2050. Moreover, abatement costs of developing countries would be higher than those of developed countries. An 85% to 90% reduction target for developed countries would result in similar per capita emission targets and abatement costs for developed and developing countries by 2050. Total reduction targets for developing countries would range from 30% to 40% below 2005 levels by 2050 and from 30% to 35% above 2005 levels by 2030. The 2030 target for China would be 40% to 45% above 2005 levels, compared to a target for the EU of 45% to 50% below 1990 and for the United States of America (USA) 30% to 35% below 1990. Emission target trajectories for Brazil, South Africa and China would peak before 2025 and for India by around 2025. From the analysis, we may conclude that from the viewpoint of developing countries either developed countries increase their target above 85%, and/or make substantial side-payments.     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agreeing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as "equitable". Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

Including land use,land-use change,and forestry in future climate change,agreements: thinking outside the box

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely “de-linking” LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.     

排放强度承诺下的CO2排放总量控制研究

单位国内生产总值(GDP)CO2排放下降承诺的本质是一种CO2排放总量控制.提出了强度承诺下的CO2排放总量控制模型,给出了不同情景方案下的2020年全国CO2排放总量控制目标,并提出86.24亿t的总量控制目标,其相对基准情景减排12.63亿t,相对减排12.8%.在实现这一目标中,能源结构调整和节能减排的贡献分别为33%和48%.在“十二五”和“十三五”期间,非化石能源消费比例分别提高至13%和15%,两期分别每年投入1500亿元和2000亿元.2020年的减排成本约在1300~2100亿元之间,占当年GDP约0.3%.     

“碳达峰和碳中和”的科学内涵及我国的政策措施

中国提出的"碳达峰和碳中和"目标是基于统筹国际国内两个大局的战略考量,基于科学论证的国家战略需求提出的,实现这一目标挑战和机遇并存。我国的承诺为全球高质量绿色复苏注入了强心剂和新活力,但实现该目标比发达国家面临更大挑战。它将倒逼我国社会经济结构进行重大调整,对科技创新提出了新要求,会给经济高质量发展、建设美丽中国带来机遇。建议切实贯彻我国"十四五"规划纲要提出的"碳强度控制为主,碳排放总量控制为辅的双控目标",充分考虑将碳排放总量控制目标考核和现有污染减排考核体系相结合,增强"十四五"的行动力。尽快制定碳中和目标下的科技创新规划和实施方案。统筹考虑短期经济复苏、中期结构调整、长期低碳转型,布局低碳/脱碳技术,提升未来绿色产业竞争力。     

我国碳排放权交易机制试点地区的ETS管理效率评价

以我国7个碳排放权交易机制试点地区的碳交易体系(ETS)和19个地区模拟ETS的设计方案、调研数据为基础,采用C2GS2模型作为基本工具构建数据包络分析模型(DEA)对碳交易机制的管理效率进行评价.结果显示,在7个试点地区中,北京、广东、深圳和重庆ETS机制的管理效率为DEA有效;上海和天津ETS处于规模递增阶段,湖北处于规模递减阶段,通过其在有效生产前沿面上的“投影”提出调整方案.建议:ETS覆盖的碳排放量低于地区总排放量的50%;下调中国核证自愿减排量(CCER)的碳抵消比例;紧紧围绕机制所覆盖的企业特征,进行投入要素规模设计;惩罚机制必不可少,但惩罚力度需根据本地区ETS投入要素特点进行设计;对ETS的碳排放上限(减排率)不宜设计过紧,否则可能对地区经济可持续发展能力造成损害.     

Energy efficiency to mitigate carbon emissions: strategies of China and the USA

In November 2014, the United States of America (USA) and the People’s Republic of China (China) governments announced their carbon emission reduction targets by 2030. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively project the two countries’ carbon emission reductions that will likely contribute to or facilitate the global climate change mitigation commitment and strategies in Paris in 2015. A top-down approach is used to analyze the relationship between China economic development and energy demand and to identify potentials of energy savings and carbon emission reduction in China. A simple time series approach is used to project carbon emission reduction in the USA. The predictions drawn from the analysis of this paper indicate that both China and the USA should use energy efficiency as first tool to achieve their carbon emission reduction goals.     

Reforming the CDM for sustainable development: lessons learned and policy futures

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has successfully demonstrated that market-based mechanisms can achieve some cost effective emissions reductions in developing countries. However the distribution of CDM projects has been extremely uneven across countries and regions, and a few technologies and sectors have dominated the early stages of CDM experience. This has caused some to question whether the CDM has fallen short of its potential in contributing to sustainable development. We review the broad patterns of CDM project approvals and evaluate 10 CDM projects according to their sustainability benefits. The difficulty of defining “sustainable development” and the process of defining criteria by individual non-Annex 1 governments has meant that sustainable development concerns have been marginalized in some countries. Given these observed limitations, we present possible CDM policy futures, focusing on the main proposals for a post-2012 climate regime. Five options for enhancing the sustainable development benefits in the CDM are discussed, including proactive approaches to favour eligibility of emission reduction projects which ensure such co-benefits.     

大气排污交易政策实施的技术原则

排污交易政策由泡泡政策、补偿政策、净得政策及排污量存储政策组成。现阶段我国实施大气排污交易政策主要在同一厂区“以新带老”、排污补偿及可用购买盈余排污量来达到排放标准三方面进行;还论述了排污交易量、排污交易费用确定的原则。      

Endogenous market structures in non-cooperative international emissions trading

The literature on cost-effective international emissions trading (IET) assumes exogenous market structures. This paper develops a game-theoretical model along with numerical simulations for the world economy in order to analyze the equilibrium market structures of an IET scheme. Countries’ decisions regarding the exercise of market power and their initial permit endowments are made non-cooperatively, being guided by their national self-interest. The theoretical results show that both price-influencing and price-taking countries choose an optimal permit endowment in light of their damage costs. Low-damage (high-damage) countries choose more emission permits and act as permit sellers (buyers). The numerical results further suggest that an imperfectly competitive IET market with all price-influencing countries being permit buyers (sellers) has lower (higher) emissions than a perfectly competitive IET market. Finally, the IET scheme has an equilibrium market structure of imperfect competition where the high-damage European Union acts as a unique price maker. This equilibrium imperfectly competitive IET has the lowest global emissions.     

Forgotten carbon: indirect CO2 in greenhouse gas emission inventories

National governments that are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to submit greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories accounting for the emissions and removals occurring within their geographic territories. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides inventory methodology guidance to the Parties of the UNFCCC. This methodology guidance, and national inventories based on it, omits carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmospheric oxidation of methane, carbon monoxide, and non-methane volatile organic compounds emissions that result from several source categories. The inclusion of this category of “indirect” CO₂ in GHG inventories increases global anthropogenic emissions (excluding land use and forestry) between 0.5 and 0.7%. However, the effect of inclusion on aggregate UNFCCC Annex I Party GHG emissions would be to reduce the growth of total emissions, from 1990 to 2004, by 0.2% points. The effect on the GHG emissions and emission trends of individual countries varies. The paper includes a methodology for calculating these emissions and discusses uncertainties. Indirect CO₂ is equally relevant for GHG inventories at other scales, such as global, regional, organizational, and facility. Similarly, project-based methodologies, such as those used under the Clean Development Mechanism, may need revising to account for indirect CO₂.     

我国造纸行业化学需氧量(COD)减排绩效评价

根据2000—2014年统计数据,对全国及各省造纸行业的化学需氧量产污状况、污染治理投入和治理效果、排污状况等进行评价,得出以下结论:在严格的总量控制制度实施前、"十一五"、"十二五"3个时间段均有减排效果,"十一五"期间减排绩效最为明显,其次为"十二五"期间;排污强度下降超过产污强度,COD污染治理水平整体提高;除辽宁以外的东部地区,造纸行业COD减排绩效普遍好于中西部地区;造纸行业COD减排对工业源的总体减排有明显贡献。     

Differentiation of countries’ future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime: An assessment of the “South–North Dialogue” Proposal

The “South–North Dialogue” Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries’ emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a “political willingness” scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The “political willingness scenario” will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.     

中国新型城镇化发展的“C 模式”研究

研究了以美国为首的发达国家城镇化的发展历程,称为“A模式”,主要特征为城市低密度蔓延、全民机动化、资源大量消耗、一次性产品泛滥、过度消费等,总结经验教训,对比中国特色城镇化的发展历程,称为“ B模式”,主要特点是起步晚、水平较低、速度快,从资源与环境的角度分析了中国城镇化发展状况以及面临的形势,指出中国继续以“B模式”的城镇化发展将不可持续,不再适应中国建设“新型城镇化”的发展目标和日益提高的环保要求,探索实现中国“新型城镇化”的发展目标的“C模式”,即是坚持以节约优先、保护优先、自然恢复为原则,走以新型工业化和农业现代化推动下的新型城镇化道路。     

Après Paris: Breakthrough innovation as the primary moral obligation of rich countries

While the notion of differentiated responsibility has always included an element of technological transfer, the growing disparity between the deployment of non-scalable renewable energy sources in the rich countries and the massive expansion of fossil infrastructure elsewhere has brought new urgency to issues of climate leadership. Breakthrough innovation into technologies capable of providing an abundance of clean energy now appears necessary not only to broaden energy access but also to ensure that fossil fuels are quickly displaced globally (including in those countries that have failed to take climate change seriously). Moreover, it is reasonable to expect that a climatechanged world in itself will demand abundant energy to facilitate everything from carbon dioxide removal to mass desalination for agriculture and other adaptation measures. Considering the moral and political impossibility of treating sustained poverty as the “solution” to the climate crisis, this paper suggests that rich countries have a moral obligation to invest in breakthrough innovation into technologies that are compatible with a future global economic convergence around OECD-levels.     

效率视角下中国2030年二氧化碳排放峰值目标的省区分解——基于零和收益DEA模型的研究

实现2030年二氧化碳排放达到峰值不仅是中国在全球气候谈判中做出的国际承诺,也是中国实现经济结构转型的必然选择,而对二氧化碳排放峰值进行合理的区域分解是中国实现二氧化碳排放达峰的必要前提.本文首先对中国2030年二氧化碳排放峰值进行初始的省区分解,利用DEA-BCC模型对初始省区分解方案进行效率评估,在此基础上利用零和收益DEA模型得到全部省区达到有效的中国二氧化碳排放峰值省区分解方案.本文研究表明：1大部分省区初始分解方案的效率值较低,只有2个省区的效率值达到DEA有效,且二氧化碳排放配额比重较大省区的分配效率值较小;2经过零和收益DEA模型的优化,省区分解方案的整体效率最终提升至有效边界,二氧化碳排放配额由效率较低的欠发达地区向效率较高的较发达地区转移,较发达和不发达的两类地区均分配到了较少的二氧化碳排放配额,最终二氧化碳排放权占比较多的地区主要为二氧化碳排放严重但减排潜力较大的省区.文章最后根据本文研究结论提出了具体的碳排放省区分解政策建议.