Prospective intervention trial of a screening protocol to identify fetal trisomy 18 using maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein,unconjugated oestriol,and human chorionic gonadotropin

Two prenatal centres in New England, routinely using a screening protocol for fetal Down syndrome that included maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurements in combination with maternal age, adopted a separate screening protocol for trisomy 18. That protocol identified a pregnancy as being at high risk when AFP, uE3, and hCG measurements all fell at or below specified cut-offs (0.75, 0.60, and 0.55 multiples of the median, respectively), regardless of maternal age. Among the first 19 491 women screened, 98 (0.5 per cent) were found to have values which placed them in the high-risk category. Four of these women were subsequently found not to be pregnant. In two others, samples from non-pregnant individuals were found to have been incorrectly submitted for analysis in place of the samples from the pregnant women. All of the remaining 92 women were counselled and offered amniocentesis and fetal karyotyping. Eighty-eight (96 per cent) accepted. Karyotypes or birth outcomes were available on all 92 pregnancies. Six cases of trisomy 18 and one case of Turner syndrome were identified by karyotype. One case of trisomy 18 was identified for every 14 unaffected pregnancies offered amniocentesis. In the present prospective study, an estimated 85 per cent of the cases of trisomy 18 were identified. However, given the small number ofcases (six), the 95 per cent confidence interval for the detection rate is broad (40–95 per cent).     

Estimating the risk of a fetal autosomal trisomy at mid-trimester using maternal serum alpha fetoprotein and age: A retrospective study of 142 pregnancies

Risks appropriate for mid-trimester prenatal screening for autosomal trisomies have been estimated from a combination of maternal age and maternal serum (MS) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 16–20 weeks gestation. Published data on the frequency of Down's syndrome births relative to maternal age were modified to include the additional age-related frequency of trisomy 18 and trisomy 13 cases to provide an overall risk for an autosomal trisomy at midtrimester. MSAFP results from a retrospective study of 142 affected (114 trisomy 21, 19 trisomy 18, and 9 trisomy 13)and 113 000 unaffected pregnancies were converted to multiples of the appropriate gestational median (MOM). The AFP levels in the autosomal trisomy pregnancies were found to be significantly reduced at 0.72 MOM of the unaffected pregnancies. Risks (likelihood ratios) were derived from the overlapping log Gaussian distributions for affected and unaffected pregnancies and combined with maternal age risks to give the overall odds of an affected pregnancy. A mid-trimester cut-off risk of 1:280 gave an estimated 37 per cent detection rate for autosomal trisomies in the west of Scotland population for a follow-up (false-positive) rate of 6.6 per cent. These figures compare with a 30 per cent detection and 6.7 per cent false-positive rate if age 35 years and over is used as the sole criterion for selection of at-risk pregnancies.     

Prenatal screening for chromosome abnormalities using maternal serum chorionic gonadotrophin,alpha-fetoprotein,and age

Human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels were assayed retrospectively in stored maternal serum samples from 78 chromosomally abnormal pregnancies and 410 controls matched for gestation and maternal age. The median serum hCG concentration in 49 pregnancies with Down's syndrome was significantly elevated, at 2.18 multiples of the normal median. Significantly reduced hCG concentrations were found in a group of four trisomy 18 pregnancies (all less than 0.4 multiples of the median). Eight cases of unbalanced chromosome rearrangements appeared to show some lowering of hCG levels, while there was no significant difference in the levels in the cases of trisomy 13, balanced translocations, and sex chromosome abnormalities. Maternal serum hCG alone is a better indicator of Down's syndrome pregnancies than maternal age or maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), either individually or in combination, and provides a further virtually independent measure of risk. On the basis of our findings, screening for Down's syndrome using hCG and AFP results combined with maternal age risks is predicted to result in a higher detection rate (57 per cent) for a lower false-positive rate (5.0 per cent) than would be attainable by combined AFP and age screening (37 per cent detection at a 6.6 per cent false-positive rate).     

Maternal serum free beta hCG screening: Results of studies including 480 cases of down syndrome

The median maternal serum free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) multiple of the median (MOM) of 480 Down syndrome cases in the second trimester was 2·64, significantly greater than the reported median MOM of intact hCG (p<0·0001). In 234 of these cases from retrospective and prospective studies, the effectiveness of maternal serum free beta hCG was evaluated in combination with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and maternal age in second-trimester Down syndrome screening. Down syndrome detection in the gestational age range of 14–16 weeks was 82 per cent. In all gestational weeks (14–22), a 77·7 per cent Down syndrome detection rate was achieved. In prospective screening of 44 272 patients under the age of 35 years, 69 per cent of Down syndrome cases were detected (73 per cent in gestational weeks 14–16). The false-positive rate for the prospective study was 3·8 per cent. The use of free beta hCG combined with maternal serum AFP and maternal age-related risk for Down syndrome in a screening population (i.e., women under 35 years) yields an improved detection efficiency over other protocols.     

Risk-based prenatal screening for trisomy 18 using alpha-fetoprotein,unconjugated oestriol and human chorionic gonadotropin

Nine centres collaborated to examine the feasibility of a screening method for trisomy 18 that was based on assigning individual risk, using a combination of maternal age and measurements of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG). Second-trimester measurements of these analytes were obtained from 94 trisomy 18 pregnancies. In the 89 pregnancies without an associated open defect, the median levels for AFP, uE3, and hCG were 0.65, 0.43 and 0.36 multiples of the unaffected population median, respectively. The strongest individual predictor of risk for trisomy 18 was uE3, followed by hCG, AFP, and maternal age, in that order. Using a method of individual risk estimation that is based on the three markers and maternal age, 60 per cent of pregnancies associated with trisomy 18 would be detected at a risk cut-off level of 1:100, with a false-positive rate of about 0.2 per cent. One in nine pregnancies identified as being at increased risk for trisomy 18 would be expected to have an affected pregnancy. This risk-based screening method is more efficient than an existing method that is based on fixed analyte cut-off levels. Even though the birth prevalence of trisomy 18 is low, prenatal screening can be justified when performed in conjunction with Down syndrome screening and when a high proportion of women offered amniocentesis have an affected fetus.     

Abnormal maternal serum chorionic gonadotropin levels in pregnancies with fetal chromosome abnormalities

The alpha subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (alpha-hCG), human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and alpha fetoprotein (AFP) were measured in the serum of 25 women with chromosomally abnormal fetuses between 18 and 25 weeks of gestation and in 74 normal pregnancies. AFP levels less than 0.5 multiples of the median (MoM) or greater than 2.5 MoM were observed in 24 per cent of the abnormal pregnancies and in 6.76 per cent of the normal pregnancies. A low concentration of hCG (< 0.25 MoM) was observed in 8 per cent of abnormals and in 2.7 per cent of normals while an elevated concentration of hCG (>2.5 MoM) was observed in 56 per cent of abnormals and in 1.35 per cent of normals. Elevated hCG-alpha (>2.5 MoM) was observed in 28 per cent of abnormals and in none of the normals. Determination of elevated levels of hCG-alpha or hCG resulted in detection of 68 per cent of pregnancies with chromosomally abnormal fetuses with a false positive rate of 1.35 per cent. Determination of both elevated and depressed gonadotropin levels resulted in detection of 76 per cent of abnormal pregnancies with a false positive rate of 4.05 per cent. Measurement of hCG and hCG-alpha in maternal serum samples can be used as a screening procedure for detecting pregnancies at risk for fetal chromosome abnormalities.     

Screening for fetal Down syndrome with maternal serum hCG and oestriol: A prospective study

We report the preliminary results of a prospective study aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of Down syndrome (DS) screening using second-trimester measurement of maternal serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) and unconjugated oestriol (uE3) together with maternal age. Reference values for hCG, uE3, and the hCG/uE3 ratio in normal pregnancies were established from more than 3000 normal gestations and found to follow a log-normal statistical distribution. Risk evaluation was made using reference values for affected pregnancies from retrospective studies. Screening of 10 000 women under 38 years resulted in 412 amniocenteses and the prenatal diagosis of six cases of DS, whereas four cases remained undetected until term. In a parallel study, diagnostic amniocentesis was performed in women over 38 years and in women with a previous affected child, and an evaluation of the risk of fetal DS based on serum hCG and uE3 levels was made in all cases. Fourteen cases of DS were detected. Median values for hCG and uE3 in the 24 affected pregnancies were close to the 90th and tenth centiles of the normal reference values, respectively, and thus are in good agreement with the values reported by others in retrospective studies.     

Maternal age-specific risks for trisomies at 9—14 weeks' gestation

This study provides data on the incidence of fetal trisomies 21, 18, and 13 at 9–14 weeks' gestation in women aged 35–45 years and estimates of maternal age-specific risks in women aged 20–45 years. Our data from 5814 singleton pregnancies undergoing first-trimester karyotyping for the sole indication of maternal age ⩾ 35 years were combined with those from two previous reports and the incidence of the trisomies was calculated from a total of 15 793 pregnancies. Comparison of incidences at 9–14 weeks' gestation with published data at 15–20 weeks' gestation and in livebirths demonstrated that at birth the maternal age-specific incidence of trisomy 21 is 33 per cent lower than at 15–20 weeks' gestation and 54 per cent lower than at 9–14 weeks' gestation. Furthermore, the relative frequency of trisomies 18 and 13 decreases from 30 per cent at 9–14 weeks to 22 per cent at 15–20 weeks and 14 per cent at birth.     

Trisomy 18 and maternal serum and amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein

Maternal serum and amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein levels were studied retrospectively in a total of 58 pregnancies with trisomy 18. In those pregnancies uncomplicated by either fetal exomphalos or neural tube defect the midtrimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) levels were markedly reduced, the median value for 38 such pregnancies being 0.6 multiples of the median (MoM). Trisomy 18 with exomphalos was associated with a higher median MSAFP, but still within the normal range: 1.1 MoM, (nine pregnancies); trisomy 18 with exomphalos and neural tube defect (NTD) was associated with grossly raised levels: median MSAFP was 4-5 MoM (three pregnancies). Amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein (AFAFP) levels were normal in uncomplicated trisomy 18 pregnancies: median AFAFP, for 19 pregnancies, was 1.1 MoM. Exomphalos alone, or together with neural tube defect, was associated with greatly elevated levels of AFAFP; for exomphalos alone median AFAFP was 9.59 MoM (four pregnancies), and for exomphalos with neural tube defect the median AFAFP was 23.95 Mom (three pregnancies). Screening with low and high MSAFP, routine ultrasound, and amniocentesis on all women aged 35 years or over, together might identify over 50 per cent of pregnancies with trisomy 18.     

Economic assessment of maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome using human chorionic gonadotropin

The effectiveness and costs of prenatal screening programmes for Down's syndrome using maternal serum markers will vary significantly depending on the biological cut-off values chosen in order to select women, at each maternal age, who will be sent for amniocentesis. On the basis of the first French prospective study of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurement in maternal serum, this paper shows that the screening protocol currently used in France, where hCG cut-off values are defined in order to offer amniocentesis to women of all ages with a 1 percent fetal risk of Down's syndrome, would detect 64·06 per cent of all cases of trisomy 21 at birth and would be highly profitable for the French social security system. On the basis of a representative sample of 100 000 pregnant women, the total costs of screening would reach $8 302 000 but would generate net potential savings of $32 186 000 in terms of life-long costs of care for trisomic 21 children which would be ‘avoided’ by termination of pregnancy following a positive diagnosis of Down's syndrome. Economic assessment shows that cost-benefit analysis would justify lower hCG cut-off values and a higher detection rate of fetal Down's syndrome (74·45 per cent) than the current French protocol. This paper concludes that it is ethical and value-laden issues, such as the consequences for women and couples of false positives and false negatives of screening, rather than economic and financial arguments that may set limits to the utilization of screening for Down's syndrome using maternal serum markers like hCG.     

An association between fetal abdominal wall defects and elevated levels of human chorionic gonadotropin in mid-trimester

We analysed maternal serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) in 16 pregnancies with fetal abdominal wall defects previously identified prenatally by elevated maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) or at birth. The AFP levels had a mean of 6·38 MOM (range 0·34–15·65), as expected with these defects. The hCG levels had a mean of 1·82 MOM (range 0·23–4·11). The hCG levels in five pregnancies (31·25 per cent) were above 2·30 MOM. Elevated levels of hCG may be associated with fetal abdominal wall defects.     

First-trimester maternal serum alphafetoprotein and chorionic gonadotropin in aneuploid pregnancies

First-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) levels were measured in samples from 29 women with cytogenetically abnormal pregnancies and 145 women with cytogenetically normal pregnancies matched for gestational age, race, and sample storage time. All patients had a risk of fetal aneuploidy greater than or equal to that of a mother 35 years of age. AFP was significantly lower in samples from pregnancies affected with trisomy 21 (0.67 MoM;p <0.05), while HCG values were no different from those of matched controls. Trisomies 13 and 18 could not be distinguished from matched controls by AFP. However, levels of HCG were significantly lower in such pregnancy samples, with median values of 0.65 MoM in trisomy 13 and 0.32 MoM in trisomy 18 (p<0.05). Variations in AFP and HCG levels suggest that expressed differences between autosomal aneuploidies include differences in fetal and placenta! protein production in the first trimester.     

Fetal choroid plexus cysts and trisomy 18: Assessment of risk based on ultrasound findings and maternal age

This paper examines the association between fetal choroid plexus cysts (CPCs) and trisomy 18 and proposes a method by which risks can be derived taking into account both sonographic findings and maternal age. Data from our centre on the sonographic findings of 58 fetuses with trisomy 18 and 387 fetuses with CPCs as well as data from published series were used. It was calculated that the prevalence of CPCs in the general population is approximately 1 per cent and at mid-gestation the incidence of CPCs in fetuses with trisomy 18 is approximately 50 per cent. In the 387 fetuses with CPCs, the incidence of trisomy 18 increased with maternal age and the likelihood ratio for trisomy 18 increased with the number of additional abnormalities, from 0·03 for those with isolated CPCs to 0·4 if there was one additional abnormality and 20·5 if there were two or more additional abnormalities. It was concluded that if the cysts are apparently isolated, the risk for trisomy 18 is only marginally increased and maternal age should be the main factor in deciding whether or not to offer fetal karyotyping. If one additional abnormality is found, the maternal age-related risk is increased, so that even for a 20-year-old the risk for trisomy 18 is at least as high as the risk for trisomy 21 in a 35-year-old. In this respect, it may be considered desirable to offer such patients the option of karyotyping.     

Four-marker serum screening for Down's syndrome

The value of measuring the separate sub-units of human chorionic gonadotrophin (free α-hCG and free β-hCG) instead of total hCG together with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) was examined to determine the effect on the performance of serum screening for Down's syndrome between 15 and 22 weeks of pregnancy. The study was based on stored serum samples relating to 75 singleton pregnancies with fetal Down's syndrome and 367 unaffected singleton pregnancies, matched for maternal age, gestational age, and duration of storage of the serum sample, supplemented by data from 970 white women with unaffected pregnancies. Using the four serum markers AFP, uE₃, free β-hCG, and free α-hCG, in addition to maternal age, 65 per cent of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected for a 5 per cent false-positive rate compared with 59 per cent with the conventional triple test (AFP, uE₃, total hCG with maternal age). If gestation was based on an ultrasound scan examination, the detection rate was 72 per cent using the four serum markers compared with 67 per cent with the triple test. As an alternative illustration, if the detection rate was kept at 60 per cent and gestation was estimated by an ultrasound scan examination the four-marker test reduced the false-positive rate by one-third from 3 per cent using the triple test to 2 per cent with the four-marker test. Screening performance was hardly affected by adjusting marker levels for maternal weight. The four-marker test is, both from a medical and from a financial perspective, the most effective method of prenatal screening for Down's syndrome suitable for routine use.     

Second-trimester maternal serum screening using alpha-fetoprotein,human chorionic gonadotrophin,and unconjugated oestriol: Experience of a regional programme

Over a 2-year period from January 1991 to December 1992, second-trimester maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome using alpha-fetoprotein (aFP), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) was made available to five health districts in East Anglia, with a total population of 1·2 million. Amniocentesis was offered when the risk of Down's syndrome at term was 1:200 or greater. 25359 singleton pregnancies were screened, representing an uptake of 77 per cent. The recall rate for the 24 per cent of women who had not had a dating scan prior to the test was 9·4 per cent compared with 3·9 per cent for those who had been scanned (P<0·0005). Seventy-five per cent (36/48) of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected for a false-positive rate of 4·0 per cent. Twenty-five out of 36 of detected Down's syndrome pregnancies were dated by scan prior to sampling, and in the 11 remaining cases, the dates were confirmed by scan after a high-risk result was obtained. The exclusion of uE₃ from the screening protocol would have reduced the detection rate to 52 per cent (25/48) for the same false-positive rate. Eighty-five per cent of women identified at high risk accepted the offer of an amniocentesis. Other fetal abnormalities detected were trisomy 18 (3), trisomy 13 (2), 45,X (6), 69,XXX (5), other chromosome abnormalities (9), open neural tube defects (26), hydrocephalus (7), abdominal wall defects (4), and steroid sulphatase deficiency (6).     

Maternal urinary β-core fragment of hCG/creatinine ratios and fetal chromosomal abnormalities in the second trimester of pregnancy

Our aim was to evaluate the potential value of the ratio of the maternal urinary beta-core fragment of human chorionic gonadotropin (βC-hCG) to creatinine (Cr) in discriminating between normal pregnancies and pregnancies associated with fetal chromosomal abnormalities. We hypothesized that pregnancies with fetal chromosomal abnormalities had abnormal quantities of βC-hCG in the urine. The aims of the present study were to investigate retrospectively whether maternal urinary ratios of βC-hCG/Cr are abnormal in women carrying fetuses with chromosome aberrations and to determine normative median values and a reference range for βC-hCG/Cr between 14 and 19 weeks' gestation. Maternal urinary βC-hCG and Cr concentrations were measured in 150 healthy women from 14 to 19 weeks and compared with ten cases of fetal chromosomal abnormalities matched for gestational age. The preliminary cut-off points corresponded to 0·29 multiple of the normal median (MOM) and 2·83 MOM, which were equivalent to the tenth and 90th centiles of the normal range. Of ten cases of fetal chromosomal abnormalities, one out of one (100 per cent) case with trisomy 18 and three of four (75 per cent) cases of variant 9 chromosome had low βC-hCG/Cr (≤0·29 MOM). One of five (20 per cent) cases with Down syndrome had elevated βC-hCG/Cr (≤2·83 MOM). Urinary βC-hCG/Cr ratios obtained in the second trimester may be useful for improved detection efficiency of Down syndrome, trisomy 18, and inversion of chromosome 9. Second-trimester maternal urinary βC-hCG/Cr should be investigated further as a potential marker for fetal chromosome anomalies.     

Serum hCG assay: A method for detection of contamination of fetal blood samples

Serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) can be assayed in specimens obtained by percutaneous fetal blood sampling to check for the absence of maternal blood or amniotic fluid contamination. In order to assess the accuracy of this approach, we measured serum hCG in 44 pure fetal blood samples obtained by intracardiac puncture. The mean fetal serum hCG concentration was 52 IU/l, and the ratio of maternal to fetal serum hCG concentration never exceeded 1 · 1 per cent, which represents the smallest contamination rate detectable by this method.     

First-trimester aneuploidy screening using serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), free ahCG,and progesterone

Immunochemical serum assays for human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), the free ohCG subunit, and progesterone (P) were considered separately and in combination for their ability to screen for chromosomally abnormal pregnancies in the first trimester. Maternal serum was collected from 141 women undergoing chorionic villus sampling at 9–12 menstrual weeks. Trisomy 21 pregnancies had significantly higher hCG levels, while trisomy 18 and 13 pregnancies had markedly lower hCG and progesterone levels than those of chromosomally normal pregnancies. However, the discrimination of normal from aneuploid pregnancies was poor with either hCG alone, progesterone alone, or free ahCG alone. Much improved discrimination was obtained by combining hCG, free ahCG, and P into an aneuploidy index [(P/hCG)(free ahCG/hCG)]. This index distinguished 9 out of 17 (53 per cent) of the trisomy 21 pregnancies, while only misidentifying 5 out of 112 (4.5 per cent) of the normal pregnancies. The aneuploidy index thus appears promising as a first-trimester biochemical screen for aneuploid pregnancies.     

Maternal serum markers in second-trimester oligohydramnios

The levels of the maternal serum markers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) in 35 pregnant women with early second-trimester oligohydramnios differed from those in a reference population of 1699 singleton pregnancies. Maternal serum AFP levels above the 95th centile of the population distribution were observed in 80 per cent (16/20) of oligohydramnios cases with a normal fetus and in only 20 per cent (3/15) of the cases with a fetus displaying urogenital tract malformations. Elevated levels of hCG (above the 95th centile) and decreased levels of uE₃ (below the fifth centile) were encountered in 26 per cent (9/35) and 17 per cent (6/35) of the women, irrespective of the fetal condition. The abnormal profile of the serum markers in early second-trimester oligohydramnios resulted in 57 per cent (20 out of 35) of screen-positive cases for either fetal Down's syndrome or neural tube defects, compared with 8·4 per cent (143 out of 1699) in the reference population.     

A survey of diagnostic amniocenteses in Oxford from 1974–1981

A survey was conducted of the results of mid-trimester diagnostic amniocenteses in the Oxford Region from 1974 to 1981. The survey used data relating to all 4357 singleton pregnancies in which an amniocentesis was performed during this period. Follow-up information on outcome was obtained in respect of 4284 (98 per cent) pregnancies. A cell culture to determine karyotype and an alpha-fetoprotein determination was carried out in all cases. From 1974 to 1981 amniocenteses became increasingly common, rising from 2 to 32 per 1000 births. The most common indication for amniocentesis was a high risk of a chromosome abnormality–56 per cent of all amniocenteses. Within this group advanced maternal age was responsible for 89 per cent of the cases. The next most common indication was a high risk of a neural tube defect (37 per cent of all amniocenteses)–in 1974 a raised maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein level accounted for only 4 per cent of these; by 1981 this had risen to 67 per cent. There were seven false-positive and 132 true-positive diagnoses of neural tube defect; since 1981, with the introduction of amniotic fluid acetylocholinesterase determination as a secondary diagnostic test for neural tube defects, there have been no further false-positive diagnoses. In 1981 76 per cent of women aged 35 years or more did not have an amniocentesis. It is not known to what extent this was due to not offering women in this age group amniocentesis or to women not accepting such an offer.