可计算一般均衡模型理论及其在气候变化研究中的应用

介绍了可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）的基本原理和主要类型。分析了该模型相对于其它经济模型的主要优势，综述了CGE模型在气候政策领域中对温室气体减排的经济成本，社会成本，减排效益，减排政策设计等问题的应用。比较了国内相关研究的现状，结果表明，CGE已经回答了在国际上气候变化研究中人们所关注的许多政策问题，但是国内的研究工作急需加强，从经济理论和参数识别两个角度讨论了CGE模型面临的挑战。     

可计算一般均衡模型在环境经济研究中的应用与展望

本文介绍了可计算一般均衡模型在环境经济研究中的主要应用领域，评述了典型的应用实例并简要归纳了在环境经济研究中所用可计算一般均衡模型的特点及分类，指出今后此模型在环境经济研究中的应用需要在如下三个方面进步拓展：在分析环境政策的社会经济成本的同时也考虑这些政策的社会经济效益；加强在区域层次上的应用；对重大社会事件或活动的环境与经济影响进行综合分析。     

中国环境决策费用效益分析的工具选择及应用

当前中国的环境决策急需成熟的环境问题分析与相关政策评价的技术工具体系作支撑,而该体系的建立远非简单地照搬国际经验就可以做到。正是因为先前的匮乏,推进中国环境决策费用效益分析的方法工具体系建设才显得尤为必要。本文尝试建立一套以投入产出技术、可计算一般均衡模型、基于多主体的模拟仿真技术和成本效益分析等工具为支柱,能够从国家、地区、产业关联和产品服务等不同纬度,开展环境问题分析与相关政策效果预测及评估的工具应用体系。该体系具有通过宏观经济影响分析,评价环境政策对经济增长和社会分配等方面的影响,说明在既定政策下能否实现环境与经济协调发展的问题;通过成本效益分析,评价环境政策的技术经济可行性和相对于政策目标的政策效率问题;通过环境效果分析,评价政策的具体实施效果等多方面的作用。     

环境经济学

X196200602666基于CGE模型的CO2减排对中国经济的影响/王灿(清华大学环境科学与工程系)…∥清华大学学报(自然科学版)/清华大学.-2005,45(12).-1621~1624环图N-4为有助于中国在气候谈判过程中科学有效地维护国家利益,应用一个综合描述中国经济、能源、环境系统的递推动态“可计算一般均衡”(com-putable general equilibrium,CGE)模型,分析在中国实施碳减排政策的经济影响。以2010年实施碳税政策为模拟情景,定量描述了减排政策下国内生产总值(GDP)、能源价格、资本价格等宏观经济变量的变化。结果表明:当减排率为0~40%时,GDP损失率在…     

环境CGE模型的开发方法与应用综述

概述了在政策实施的环境影响越来越引起社会各界广泛重视的背景下,运用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型来评估政策或外部冲击对环境产生的影响已成为环境政策研究领域的1个热点。指出CGE模型着眼于整个社会经济系统内的各类商品和要素间的供给与需求关系,并要求所有的市场出清;当价格、产业结构、政策变动和宏观经济变量等都是重要的影响因素时．CGE模型是非常有力的分析工具。全面回顾和总结了环境CGE模型的开发方法和应用进程。在总结几大奠基性环境CGE模型的建模思想的基础上,将环境CGE模型的主要开发方法归纳为4类：对资源、环境类的生产部门和要素进行单独处理;引入新的方程模块来刻画与环境．能源等相关的问题;通过改造生产或消费函数将环境效应引入到模型中;改造或扩展模型的数据基础。简要评述了每类方法的特点和适用情况。总结、展望了环境CGE模型在国内外的应用情况,以及未来的应用发展趋势。     

环境政策的综合影响评价模型系统及应用

研究和建立一套以可计算的均衡理论模型(CGE)为核心,同时与大气环境质量模型和健康影响模型(暴露-反应模型)连接,组成了环境政策综合评价模型,为综合评价环境政策产生的各类影响及其相互作用提供了一种评价方法.利用该模型系统,分析北京市采用能源环境税对北京市的大气环境、健康、经济发展和居民福利水平的影响.模型分析认为,北京市采用单一的能源环境税可以改善北京市的大气环境,但也将迟缓北京市的经济发展;如果北京市在采用能源环境税的同时进行绿色环境税收制度改革,则不但可以改善环境,而且可以促进北京市的可持续发展.     

我国能源发展环境成本内部化经济政策分析

本文围绕能源发展环境成本内部化,综合评估了我国相关经济政策的实施背景和现状.分析了存在的问题,并阐述了我国能源发展继续实行环境成本内部化的重大意义.     

模糊神经网络方法在船舶油污事故损害赔偿评估中的应用研究

针对船舶油污事故损害赔偿评估非线性系统的复杂性，分析了人工神经网络技术在该领域应用的可能性，并以20个国际油污基金公约所承认著名赔偿案例为例建立船舶油污事故的神经网络评估模型，该模型对中国船舶油污事故损害赔偿评估具有一定的参考实用价值，为中国船舶油污事故损害赔偿评估提供了一种新颖而方便的计算方法。     

生态环境部环境与经济政策研究中心学科研究简介——能源环境气候研究

<正>能源环境气候研究是政研中心在传统的气候变化学科基础上发展衍生形成的新兴学科之一,主要针对能源发展与环境保护、应对气候变化、国际气候治理、大气环境质量改善与碳排放强度协同控制等领域开展研究,长期开展多种污染物与温室气体协同控制评价模型开发研究,参与气候谈判和履约研究。2018年,开展了"应对气候变化政策研究与能力建设""我国城市常规大气污染物与温室气体协同控制决     

湖南省工业领域碳减排与空气质量改善协同

气候变暖和空气污染是我国当前面临的主要环境问题.综合使用中国碳核算数据库、能源经济模型和空气质量模型,研究我国湖南省工业领域潜在碳达峰路径及其空气质量协同改善增益.基于中国碳核算数据库和相关工业/能源统计年鉴分析指出,湖南省2019年CO₂排放总量为310.6 Mt,其中工业领域排放占比超70%,主要来自于电力、蒸汽、热力的生产和供应业,非金属矿物制品业及黑色金属的冶炼和压延业等行业.综合考虑未来各工业行业经济增长速率、能源技术进步程度和能源结构优化调整等因素,使用LEAP能源经济模型设置并分析了3种潜在的工业碳达峰情景,包括趋势照常情景（2030年达峰）、中度减排情景（2028年达峰）和强化减排情景（2025年达峰）.进一步结合人为源大气污染物排放清单和区域空气质量模型WRF-Chem,以排放行业-部门的同源对应关系为桥梁,模拟分析不同碳达峰路径下空气质量改善响应.结果指出,在3种碳达峰情景中,主要大气污染物浓度均有所降低,长株潭地区尤为显著;强化减排情景力度最大,中度减排情景次之,趋势照常情景相对最弱.制造业减污降碳的协同效果最佳,在不同情景实现碳达峰时,可分别减少ρ（PM_2.5）和ρ（PM₁₀）年均值0.6~1.8 μg·m^-3和1.8~8.9 μg·m^-3.研究可为国家和区域的减污降碳协同实践提供参考和决策依据.     

The Green Climate Fund as an effective compensatory mechanism in global climate negotiations

The Paris Agreement reached during the COP21 in December 2015 represents a timid step towards burden sharing in emission mitigation involving all countries. However, given the heterogeneity of countries and their relative differences in vulnerability to climate change damage and in mitigation costs, compensating schemes are required to reach an effective agreement. This paper investigates the role of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as a potential compensating measure for both adaptation and mitigation actions under a global climate regime. A dynamic climate-economy computable general equilibrium model (GDynEP) is developed by including both a monetary valuation of climate change damage costs and two alternative methods to determine the allocation of GCF resources among receiving countries and between adaptation and mitigation contributions. Results show that, despite the high costs associated with the implementation of mitigation actions, most developing countries would face even higher costs in case of inaction. Furthermore, the preference of a country for an allocation method is strongly influenced by its characteristics and needs. Consequently, a main policy conclusion is to design country-specific sharing rules for GCF in order to maximize country participation in a global agreement.     

Economic and environmental effects of unilateral climate actions

Unilateral climate policy can be detrimental to global climate protection. Our objective is to provide insight into such a policy, to quantify the risk of carbon leakage, and to investigate the effects related to potential anti-leakage measures. We analyze existing definitions of carbon leakage and propose an alternative, rigorous one, which is different in three respects. The definition is then tested using computable general equilibrium analysis of the global economy and decomposition analysis. We identify a list of parameters that affect not only the magnitude but also the sign of the carbon leakage rate. Manipulating elasticities of substitution suggests that carbon leakage can be either positive or negative. Computable general equilibrium models, which are widely applied, including by the European Commission in this area, should be transparent, and their assumptions call for careful validation. We find that emission limits are properly distributed between sectors covered by the European Union Emissions Trading System and other sectors for the first commitment period (ended in 2012) but not for the second one (ending in 2020), where the target for the non-trading sectors should be reduced relative to the target for the trading sectors in order to equlize marginal abatement costs.     

Oil price scenarios and climate policy: welfare effects of including transportation in the EU emissions trading system

The stringency of policies needed to meet a climate target is influenced by uncertain oil prices because price changes cause emission changes, making the robustness of climate policy instruments important. As a result of its dependence on oil, emissions from the transport sector are particularly sensitive to oil price changes. We use a computable general equilibrium model to study the effects of including the transport sector in the EU??s emissions trading scheme under three future oil price scenarios. Our results show that there are potentially significant welfare gains from including transportation in the emissions trading scheme because the system as a whole helps absorb required changes in climate policy to meet the overall EU cap on emissions. There is, however, a cost in terms of somewhat greater permit price uncertainty.     

Adaptation of Russian agriculture to climatic variability: The role of federal and provincial policies

This paper draws on the example of Tyumen Province, a federal subject of the Russian Federation, to explore the role that policies play in hindering agricultural producers’ adaptation to climate change. Its objective is to contribute to a better understanding of maladaptation at the policy level. The discourse analysis method is used to explain perceptions of climate variability in Tyumen Province and its impact on agriculture. The document analysis method is used to assess agricultural policy in Tyumen Province and its implications for producers’ adaptation to climate change. The results suggest that although agricultural producers and policymakers are acutely aware both of climate variability and the resulting loss of agricultural output, provincial agricultural policy generally fails to encourage better adaptation by agricultural producers or to support their greater economic security. Instead, it primarily focuses on meeting food production targets and thus limits the producers’ own independent moves towards adaptation. The phenomenon of maladaptation at the policy level is discussed in consideration of the general public’s and the authorities’ awareness of climate change and climate variability, and the role of science in shaping this awareness.     

Emissions corridors for reducing the risk of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation

In this paper, we present the integrated assessment model dimrise (dynamic integrated model of regular climate change impacts and singular events). This model is designed to investigate the stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and to derive related climate policy recommendations. It is written in GAMS and comprises a dynamic model of the THC coupled to a climate model and a global economy model for assessing the monetary cost of climate protection. The THC model is a dynamic four-box interhemispheric extension of the classic Stommel model calibrated against results obtained using the CLIMBER-2 climate model. The reduced-form climate model used to drive the THC model is the ICLIPS multi-gas climate model, which is a computationally efficient, globally aggregated model able to mimic the response of more sophisticated carbon cycle and atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The THC and climate modules are coupled to a globally aggregated Ramsey-type optimal growth model of the world economy derived from the Nordhaus DICE model. Together, these components create a novel dynamic fully coupled computationally efficient integrated assessment model. Illustrative applications demonstrate that dimrise is able to derive (constrained) economically optimal emissions paths that comply with prescribed bounds on admissible THC weakening imposed in order to avoid an irrevocable breakdown. In addition, emissions corridors are presented which contain all possible emissions paths that do not endanger the stability of the THC and that simultaneously obey restrictions on welfare loss arising from mitigation efforts. The presented results show that, under worst-case conditions, the stability of the THC may be threatened within two decades if global emissions would not deviate from the business-as-usual trajectory.

Evaluating cost and benefit of air pollution control policies in China: A systematic review

China has put great efforts into air pollution control over the past years and recently committed to its most ambitious climate target. Cost and benefit analysis has been widely used to evaluate the control policies in terms of past performance, future reduction potential,and direct and indirect impacts. To understand the cost and benefit analysis for air pollution control in China, we conducted a bibliometric review of more than 100 studies published over the past two decades, including the cur...     

基于森林碳汇经济价值中国宏观社会核算矩阵扩展

随着气候变化及温室效应等问题的广泛影响,森林的碳汇功能越来越受到人们的关注。社会核算矩阵作为可计算一般均衡模型的标准数据基础,为详细描述经济系统中各部门、各经济主体以及各市场之间的联系提供了一个理想的数据支持。本文在编制我国宏观2007年社会核算矩阵的基础上,将森林碳汇的经济价值纳入到其中,对我国宏观社会核算矩阵进行扩展,扩展后的社会核算矩阵可用于森林碳汇的经济效益分析以及为建立森林碳汇的CGE模型提供数据基础。     

Long-term,consistent scenarios of emissions,deposition, and climate change in Europe

The aim of this study was to develop consistent scenarios of emissions, climate change and regional air pollution to enable an integrated analysis of the linkage between climate change and regional air pollution in Europe. An integrated modeling framework was developed for this purpose. The framework integrates state-of-the-art models and concepts from the area of climate change and regional air pollution and was supplemented by new modules (e.g. modeling long-term NH₃ emissions in Europe, modeling dispersion and transformation of air pollutants under climate change).Consistent climate and air pollution policies were derived, both driven by the desire to achieve certain environmental goals. According to an analysis of scenarios with various combinations of climate and regional air pollution policies the quantitatively most relevant interactions are the effect of climate change policies on the energy mix and the resulting air pollution emissions. In the long-term the global SO₂ emissions are expected to decrease (again), accordingly their effect on climate will be minor. Tentatively it can be concluded that for regional air pollution the development of the air pollutant emissions is more important than the effect of climate change on the dispersion and chemical transformation of air pollutants.     

A Method for Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Siberian Forests: Example of Larch Area

The conceptual scheme of integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change in Siberian forests is elaborated and applied to the extensive area in Siberia covered by Larch forests. Forest stakeholders on the provincial level are identified to be the most relevant for an integrated impact assessment. Organisation of the assessment study as a combination of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches is suggested. Major biophysical vulnerability indexes and regional syndromes are identified as the growing stock and current increment averaged by administrative unit. Models and data suitability and quality for an analysis of biophysical vulnerability in conditions of climate change are studied for Siberian forests and future development trends are identified. An application of the elaborated conceptual scheme, which employs two models of different type and forest inventory data, is presented for the Larch area.