Managing the cost of emissions for durable,carbon-containing products

We recognize that carbon-containing products do not decay and release CO₂ to the atmosphere instantaneously, but release that carbon over extended periods of time. For an initial production of a stock of carbon-containing product, we can treat the release as a probability distribution covering the time over which that release occurs. The probability distribution that models the carbon release predicts the amount of carbon that is released as a function of time. The use of a probability distribution in accounting for the release of carbon to the atmosphere realizes a fundamental shift from the idea that all carbon-containing products contribute to a single pool that decays in proportion to the size of the stock. Viewing the release of carbon as a continuous probabilistic process introduces some theoretical opportunities not available in the former paradigm by taking advantage of other fields where the use of probability distributions has been prevalent for many decades. In particular, theories developed in the life insurance industry can guide the development of pricing and payment structures for dealing with the costs associated with the oxidation and release of carbon. These costs can arise from a number of proposed policies (cap and trade, carbon tax, social cost of carbon, etc), but in the end they all result in there being a cost to releasing carbon to the atmosphere. If there is a cost to the emitter for CO₂ emissions, payment for that cost will depend on both when the emissions actually occur and how payment is made. Here we outline some of the pricing and payment structures that are possible which result from analogous theories in the life insurance industry. This development not only provides useful constructs for valuing sequestered carbon, but highlights additional motivations for employing a probability distribution approach to unify accounting methodologies for stocks of carbon containing products.     

某大型焦化企业污染场地中多环芳烃空间分布的分异性特征

以我国某大型焦化企业污染场地为研究对象,应用非参数地统计学中指示克里格方法对场地中0～50 cm深度土壤的多环芳烃（PAHs）空间分布进行污染概率分析,并绘制在设定阈值条件下的概率分布图.结果表明,对采样样点数据进行指示转换后,可获取较为稳健的指示半变异函数,但由于样本的空间变异原因,导致样本间空间相关性差;所研究的4种PAHs污染概率在空间分布上具有相似性,概率超过45%的区域主要分布于炼焦、煤气净化、焦油化产品回收等生产工艺的车间中,位于厂区的中部及西北和东南,污染较为严重;概率〈45%的区域主要分布在备煤和煤气净化等生产工艺车间,位于厂区西南和东北区域.污染概率预测结果与该场地污染源的产生和分布状况相一致.研究结果对后续的污染场地修复治理范围确定和土方量估算提供了重要参考。     

低轨道卫星表面电位探测器探测数据分析

目的 了解太阳活动低年低轨道卫星表面充电的特征规律,为今后低轨道卫星表面充电的防护设计提供参考.方法 利用我国一颗低轨道卫星搭载的表面电位探测器数据,对探测到的2017—2019年的78次表面充电事件进行统计分析.重点研究78次事件的充电时长、电位峰值、时空分布等特征以及事件与地磁活动的关系.结果 在太阳活动低年,83.3％表面充电事件持续时间不超过1 min,80.7％表面充电事件的充电峰值绝对值不超过100 V;97.4％的事件出现在南半球高纬度地区;88.5％的事件发生在磁地方时的18至02时之间;当表面充电事件发生率不为0时,事件发生率和Kp指数的相关系数为0.97.结论 在太阳活动低年,表面充电事件的持续时间较短,并且强度不大.表面充电事件发生位置具有明显的南北不对称性,呈现南多北少的趋势.表面充电事件多发生于高纬度地区,在磁地方时的傍晚至午夜发生概率高.表面充电事件发生率和地磁活动具有较好的相关性.     

Model-based direct search optimization of the broke recirculation system in a newsprint mill

This work is concerned with the dynamic modelling of the papermaking section of an integrated newsprint mill, and the subsequent application of two direct search methods in a proof-of-concept optimization study of broke recirculation strategies. The effect of the current broke recirculation policy on the mixed pulp properties at the paper machine headboxes was quantified using a dynamic simulation generating data for an objective function which reflected the rate of change in measurable (flow, consistency and temperature) and immeasurable (total dissolved solids and fibre length distribution) parameters. Genetic Algorithm and the Nelder–Mead simplex methods were then linked dynamically to the simulation and used to find improved ways of recirculating broke pulp. Specifically, the profile of the changes to the broke ratio was modelled using a quadratic function and a second-order transfer function, and the coefficients of these functions were optimized. The optimized broke recirculation resulted in a significant reduction in the value of the objective function, thus, suggesting that the fluctuations in the properties of the mixed pulp stream could be dampened and paper machine headbox stability improved. It is expected that this process enhancement strategy would contribute to an increase in production yield (via a reduction in the occurrence of paper machine breaks), and thus an overall reduction in the waste of materials and energy.     

保守性污染物风险水环境容量的随机估算模式研究

本文以对数正态分布理论为基础,建立了利用矩量近似法(Moment Approximation)与数值积分法(Numeral Interal Methed)计算风险水环境容量的随机估算模式,并由此提出了水质功能标准概率分布概念。风险水环境容量随机估算模式的提出拓展了水环境容量的概念与内函,为计算风险水环境容量开辟了新的途径。     

流域尺度氮流失的环境风险评价

采用故障树及概率分析方法,对九龙江流域氮的流失风险进行定性与定量评价.通过建立故障树定性分析了九龙江流域氮流失的主要风险来源.结果表明,氮流失风险大小主要与肥料施用、畜禽养殖废物的处置及农田耕作有关.在GIS技术支持下,通过土地利用、土壤等数据的计算,结合田间调查结果与专家意见,确定故障树基本故障事件概率,继而对氮流失风险进行定量评价.最佳管理措施模拟评价结果表明,降低施肥水平,在养殖场周边建立植被过滤带,增加河岸林截留入河沉积物等措施可以有效降低氮流失风险,在九龙江流域可以考虑优先实施.      

基于限定motif关联规则的海洋热浪事件模式发现研究

海表温度作为近岸海洋热浪事件的重要孕灾环境要素,揭示其变化规律有助于预测未来热浪事件的发生。本文将用于表达热浪事件发生前和发生时海表温度变化规律的关联规则定义为事件模式,提出了基于限定motif关联规则挖掘的模式发现方法。方法通过STAMP算法挖掘出motif,运用MDL评分策略分割motif形成候选关联规则,结合热浪事件发生的约束条件,实现对海洋热浪事件模式的提取。本文利用中国近海3个站点的海表温度数据进行海洋热浪事件模式发现实验,研究结果表明,中国近海的海洋热浪呈季节特征,主要发生于夏季,且持续时间达20天以上,海洋热浪事件模式呈现有规则的升温和下降趋势,升温速率和降温速率呈对称特性,且在热浪发生前,海表温度有一个短暂的升温间歇期。     

基于Copula函数的水体富营养化联合风险概率研究

为了分析小型人工湖水体富营养化指标联合风险发生的概率,基于Copula函数的基本原理,结合眉湖水体富营养化模型模拟结果,建立了水体富营养化指标的边缘分布及Copula函数联合概率分布.通过Copula函数拟合检验和拟合优度评价筛选出不同组合方式下最优的Copula函数,并根据最优的Copula函数计算出水体富营养化指标的二维和三维联合风险概率.结果表明,不同组合方式下水体富营养化指标达到不同富营养化状态时的联合风险概率区别较大;当Chl-a和COD都为轻度富营养时,二维联合风险概率最大为62.29%,说明这种组合方式下眉湖水体极易发生轻度富营养;当Chl-a和COD都为轻度富营养、TN为中度富营养时,三维联合风险概率最大为45.46%,说明这种组合方式下眉湖水体极易发生中度富营养;由于受到水体富营养化指标监测系列的影响,部分二维和三维联合风险概率较小甚至为零.     

Complementarity,biodiversity viability analysis,and policy-based algorithms for conservation

Biodiversity conservation “area-selection” strategies include not only trade-offs among society’s needs in land-use allocation, but also allocation of economic instruments such as incentives, levies, and biodiversity credits. For these applications, the key property of an area is its “complementarity”—the context-dependent, marginal gain in biodiversity provided by the area. Given that there has been little implementation of whole-sets of areas generated by the popular computer-based selection methods, we suggest that analogous “policy-based algorithms” would be a more effective real-world application of complementarity. Areas would be “selected” for conservation over time as a consequence of policies in which dynamic complementarity values influence application of economic instruments. These integrated biodiversity/economic strategies can use an extended form of complementarity reflecting marginal changes in regional probability of persistence of biodiversity. While probabilistic measures of biodiversity viability have been explored in area-selection for some time, it remains difficult to make viability statements about “all of biodiversity.” New approaches that use biodiversity surrogate information for “biodiversity viability analysis” (BVA) can take advantage of a general quantitative biodiversity framework in which pattern-based relationships among areas allow predictions at the species level. A standard assumption of “unimodal” species responses to environmental gradients yields an expected distribution of species in an ordination pattern, and allows sampling of inferred species. Based on environmental correlates, inferred species can be mapped in geographic space, forming distribution fragments. This information, when linked to species persistence models, may allow ongoing calculation of areas’ complementarity values. An example illustrates application of these ordination models to museum collection data for lizards from New South Wales (NSW), Australia.     

Flux characteristics of total dissolved iron and its species during extreme rainfall event in the midstream of the Heilongjiang River

The occurrence of extreme rainfall events and associated flooding has been enhanced due to climate changes, and is thought to influence the flux of total dissolved iron(TDI) in rivers considerably. Since TDI is a controlling factor in primary productivity in marine ecosystems, alteration of riverine TDI input to the ocean may lead to climate change via its effect on biological productivity. During an extreme rainfall event that arose in northeastern China in 2013, water samples were collected in the midstream of the Heilongjiang River to analyze the concentration and species of TDI as well as other basic parameters. The speciation of TDI was surveyed by filtration and ultrafiltration methods.Compared with data monitored from 2007 to 2012, the concentration of TDI increased significantly during this event, with an average concentration of 1.11 mg/L, and the estimated TDI flux reached 1.2 × 105 tons, equaling the average annual TDI flux level.Species analysis revealed that low-molecular-weight complexed iron was the dominant species, and the impulse of TDI flux could probably be attributed to the hydrological connection to riparian wetlands and iron-rich terrestrial runoff. Moreover, dissolved organic matter played a key role in the flux, species and bioavailability of TDI. In addition,there is a possibility that the rising TDI flux could further influence the transport and cycling of nutrients and related ecological processes in the river, estuary coupled with the coastal ecosystems, which merits closer attention in the future.     

生物入侵预测模型研究进展

生物入侵随着全球化进程有进一步加剧的趋势,外来物种已经被视为对本地生物多样性和生态系统功能产生全球威胁的因素之一。生物入侵的影响巨大,开展预测工作以便在一开始就发现并阻止外来种侵入,为生物入侵提供最优化的监测和早期控制手段。为此,本文从环境的可侵入性和外来种的入侵性两个方面综述了目前生物入侵预测模型的研究进展,以便为外来种引入和管理提供依据。     

Eggshell colour does not predict measures of maternal investment in eggs of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Turdus</Emphasis> thrushes

The striking diversity of avian eggshell colour has long fascinated biologists. Recently, it has been proposed that the blue-green colour of some eggs may function as a post-mating sexually selected signal of female phenotypic quality to their mates to induce higher allocation of paternal care. It has been suggested that maternally deposited yolk carotenoids may be the specific aspect of reproductive quality that the female is signalling via eggshell colour. We use the known properties of the thrush visual system (Turdus sp.) to calculate photon capture for the four single cone photoreceptors, and the principal member of the double cone class for eggs in clutches of two introduced European thrush species (Turdus merula and Turdus philomelos) in New Zealand. We show that differences in the avian-perceived colours of individual eggs are not consistently correlated with different measures of maternal investment in the egg. Given the growing extent of the knowledge between maternal quality, parental investment and eggshell pigmentation across avian taxa, we encourage the use of avian perceptual modelling for testing alternative non-signalling explanations for the structural and physiological basis of these relationships.     

大气飘尘冲击式分级采样器

本文分析了冲击式分级采样器的工作原理,对采样器中各种几率给予了严格的定义,阐明了这些几率概念之间的差别和相互联系,提出了多级采样器的研究简化为单级采样器研究的方法.提供了考虑粘性效应及用二种阻力公式(斯托克斯公式和标准阻力公式)的数值计算的P(Θ,Ω~*)曲线.对采样器工作特性曲线作了分析,指出各级主要采集粒径的范围大小和绝对收集几率的互相制约关系.提出采样器全面性能计算和设计方法.按本文提出的方法设计的LH-1型采样器,性能达到设计指标,已通过产品成果鉴定.     

三氯氢硅储罐环境风险评价事故树分析

采用事件树和故障树分析方法,对三氯氢硅储罐风险事故源进行了定量和定性分析。事件树定量分析结果为：储罐一旦发生泄漏事故,三氯氢硅泄漏事故概率为6．16×10-6,火灾、爆炸事故概率为3．08×10-6,中毒事故概率为7．61×10-7。故障树定性分析结果为：三氯氢硅蒸汽与空气混合浓度达到爆炸极限事件的结构重要度最大,其次是三氯氢硅泄漏事件,再次是点火源及罐区存在冷却水事件。通过事件树一故障树分析,探讨了储罐泄漏的事故后果及火灾、爆炸事故的主要原因,并提出了相应的防范措施。     

Flood inundation uncertainty: The case of a 0.5% annual probability flood event

Aging coastal defences around the UK are challenging managers to redesign schemes to be resilient to extreme events and climate change, be cost-effective, and have minimal or beneficial environmental impact. To enable effective design, reduced uncertainty in the assessment of flood risk due to natural variability within the coastal forcing is required to focus on conditions that pose highest threat. The typical UK standard of protection for coastal defences is to withstand a 0.5% annual probability event, historically also known as a 1 in 200 year return period event. However, joint wave-water level probability curves provide a range of conditions that meet this criterion. We examine the Dungeness and Romney Marsh coastal zone, a region of high value in terms of habitat and energy assets, to quantify the uncertainty in flood depth and extent generated by a 0.5% probability event, and to explore which combinations of wave and water levels generate the greatest threat.     

物种敏感性分布法在土壤中铜生态阈值建立中的应用研究

利用不同累计概率分布函数拟合了基于中国土壤的21个物种的铜毒理学数据,建立了不同土壤条件下的铜物种敏感性分布曲线.结果表明物种敏感性分布方程Burr Ⅲ在X轴(浓度)方向及y轴的较小累计概率范围内拟合优度较佳.在构建土壤中铜物种敏感性分布曲线时,利用铜生物毒害模型归一化处理能体现土壤性质对铜毒害的影响,相比于未归一化(不考虑土壤性质差异的影响)的结果更具科学性.结合铜的生物毒害模型利用Burr Ⅲ构建了中国土壤4种典型情景中的物种敏感性分布曲线,并基于此推导出了不同土壤情景下的铜5％毒害浓度(HC5),其在酸性土壤、中性土壤(包括水稻土)、碱性非石灰性土壤和石灰性土壤中的值分别为13.1、29.9、51.9和26.3 mg·kg-1(以土壤中外源铜为单位).此结果不仅表明了不同土壤条件下的不同物种对铜毒害的敏感性分布规律,还为建立对应土壤性质的铜生态阈值提供了可靠的科学基础.     

花岗岩铀地球化学特征新认识——以赣南富城产铀花岗岩体为例

对富城花岗岩U、T h含量分析结果进行的频数统计分析表明富城花岗岩U的均值为8.92×1-0 6、众数为8.0×10-6、中位数为7.03×1-0 6,其概率密度曲线偏向高端呈右偏非对称分布(偏度系数CSK=1.10)。T h的均值、众数和中位数三者一致,分别为25.7×10-6,25.75×10-6,25.8×1-0 6,其概率密度曲线呈对称正态分布(偏度系数CSK=0.11)。核诱发裂变径迹研究查明富城花岗岩中铀有4种存在形式:(1)显微粒状铀矿物(晶质铀矿);(2)以类质同像形式存在于锆石、磷灰石等副矿物之中;(3)均匀分散赋存在造岩矿物晶格之中的结构铀;(4)沿造岩矿物(长石、石英)微裂隙及粒间分布的非结构铀。对富城花岗岩铀配分研究发现,赋存在造岩矿物中均匀分散状的结构铀含量与全岩铀不呈消长关系,而是存在一定的极限值:长石、石英<3×1-0 6,白云母<5×10-6,黑云母<9×10-6。溶浸实验结果表明,富城花岗岩活动性铀浸出率很高(平均值52%),为富城花岗岩具有较大铀成矿潜力提供了佐证。     

2013年12月石家庄一次霾天气过程中的黑炭浓度特征

2013年12月5日~27日石家庄地区连续出现霾天气,大气日均能见度为0.2~8km,其中大约89.53%的时间大气能见度不足5km.分析12月10~27日期间的黑炭固定观测数据表明:1)黑炭浓度均值为39.84μg/m3,日变化具有明显的双峰结构,第1个峰值在上午9:00左右,第2个峰值在夜晚21:00~24:00;2)黑炭浓度小时均值与大气能见度小时均值之间呈负相关关系,当黑炭浓度大于固定观测期间的均值时,重度霾发生的概率为97.78%.此外,通过在车辆上安装黑炭分析仪和GPS接收机对石家庄市区主干道进行了多天的移动观测,结果表明:黑炭浓度与交通密度和街道特点(道路类型、交通密度)直接相关; 市区二环的黑炭浓度较高,大约是二环内黑炭浓度均值的1.48倍;市中心区的黑炭浓度相对较低,且呈现明显的东西-南北向差异性.     

Municipality socioeconomic characteristics and the probability of occurrence of Wildlife Management Units in Mexico

Wildlife use is a strategy for livelihood diversification, and markets depend on the characteristics of consumers and providers as well as on regional socioeconomic variables, such as the accommodation infrastructure, population density, land use, and economic activities, which are all aspects considered in this study. In Mexico wildlife subsidy is applied with general criteria and economic information related to wildlife uses is scarce. Assessing a municipality's socioeconomic characteristics and the probability of the occurrence of Wildlife Management Units (UMAs) in Mexico provides useful information for identifying the present conditions that have an influence on the location and development of UMAs providing useful information for decision making. Geographical and socioeconomic approaches for describing the distribution of UMAs can lead to better decisions related to focalization and therefore to the improvement of wildlife and environmental policies that have an influence on livelihood quality.