Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints

This paper estimates the future greenhousegas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions forIndia under various scenarios. Thereference scenario assumes continuation ofthe current official policies of the Indiangovernment and forecasts of macro-economic,demographic and energy sector indicators.Other scenarios analyzed are the economicgrowth scenarios (high and low), carbonmitigation scenario, sulfur mitigationscenario and frozen (development) scenario.The main insight is that GHG and localpollutant emissions from India, althoughconnected, do not move in synchronizationin future and have a disjoint under variousscenarios. GHG emissions continue to risewhile local pollutant emissions decreaseafter some years. GHG emission mitigationtherefore would have to be pursued for itsown sake in India. National energy securityconcerns also favor this conclusion sincecoal is the abundant national resource whilemost of the natural gas has to be imported.The analysis of contributing factors tothis disjoint indicates that sulfurreduction in petroleum oil products andpenetration of flue gas desulfurisationtechnologies are the two main contributorsfor sulfur dioxide (SO₂) mitigation.The reduction in particulate emissions ismainly due to enforcing electro-staticprecipitator efficiency norms in industrialunits, with cleaner fuels and vehicles alsocontributing substantially. These policytrends are already visible in India.Another insight is that high economicgrowth is better than lower growth tomitigate local pollution as lack ofinvestible resources limits investments incleaner environmental measures. Ouranalysis also validates the environmentalKuznets' curve for India as SO₂emissions peak around per capita GDP ofUS$ 5,300–5,400 (PPP basis) under variouseconomic growth scenarios.     

Integrated assessment of CCS in the German power plant sector with special emphasis on the competition with renewable energy technologies

The study presents the results of an integrated assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector in Germany, with special emphasis on the competition with renewable energy technologies. Assessment dimensions comprise technical, economic and environmental aspects, long-term scenario analysis, the role of stakeholders and public acceptance and regulatory issues. The results lead to the overall conclusion that there might not necessarily be a need to focus additionally on CCS in the power plant sector. Even in case of ambitious climate protection targets, current energy policy priorities (expansion of renewable energies and combined heat and power plants as well as enhanced energy productivity) result in a limited demand for CCS. In case that the large energy saving potential aimed for can only partly be implemented, the rising gap in CO₂ reduction could only be closed by setting up a CCS-maximum strategy. In this case, up to 22% (41 GW) of the totally installed load in 2050 could be based on CCS. Assuming a more realistic scenario variant applying CCS to only 20 GW or lower would not be sufficient to reach the envisaged climate targets in the electricity sector. Furthermore, the growing public opposition against CO₂ storage projects appears as a key barrier, supplemented by major uncertainties concerning the estimation of storage potentials, the long-term cost development as well as the environmental burdens which abound when applying a life-cycle approach. However, recently, alternative applications are being increasingly considered?Cthat is the capture of CO₂ at industrial point sources and biomass based energy production (electricity, heat and fuels) where assessment studies for exploring the potentials, limits and requirements for commercial use are missing so far. Globally, CCS at power plants might be an important climate protection technology: coal-consuming countries such as China and India are increasingly moving centre stage into the debate. Here, similar investigations on the development and the integration of both, CCS and renewable energies, into the individual energy system structures of such countries would be reasonable.     

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions

Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO₂ emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.     

双碳目标下电力系统转型对产业部门影响评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

通过细化机组级燃煤发电财务状况建模,测算了提前退役、灵活性调整、限制和停止新增等情景下煤电搁浅资产风险,明确了不同情景下导致搁浅资产规模及时空分布情况.结果表明:存量煤电机组是引起搁浅资产的主体,控制新增煤电有助于降低搁浅资产风险,提前退役、灵活性调整情景下中国现存和新增煤电搁浅资产总规模分别为1.90万亿和3.98万亿元;不同转型情景导致煤电搁浅资产的年际分布差异明显,提前退役搁浅压力主要集中于2030~2040年间,灵活性调整情景下则集中于2021~2035年间;煤电搁浅资产空间分布极不均衡,山东、内蒙古、江苏等10个煤电大省搁浅资产规模占全国的67%和70%.因此,煤电低碳转型需审慎决策,重视提前退役造成的煤电资产搁浅,更要防范和控制灵活性调整导致的煤电资产减值,重点关注山东、内蒙古、新疆、江苏等重点省份,制定因地制宜的煤电转型策略,帮助电力相关企业及政府等进行减排政策选择.     

Options for baselines of the clean development mechanism

The Kyoto Protocol created the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to allow industrial countries to reach part of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction through projects in developing countries. To calculate the achieved emission reduction a reference scenario has to be developed – the baseline. Despite efforts to develop realistic baselines, a certain degree of uncertainty regarding actual reductions will be inevitable. It is therefore necessary to compare the costs (including transaction costs) of developing a baseline against the informational benefit it can be expected to produce. While project-related baselines are already being applied, the proponents of country-related baselines have still to show the applicability of their approach for the CDM. The possibility of quantifying indirect effects and considering market distortions and subsidies through aggregation in the country-related baselines is weighed up by the manipulability and uncertainty of the assumptions required in such a baseline. Thus project-specific baselines are recommended. In cases of severely distorted markets undergoing liberalization or subsidy phase-out, a country-related baseline can be helpful. Sectoral or programme baselines would be suited to large-scale energy and sequestration projects. Moreover it has to be considered whether emission reductions are generally achieved in the context of relocation or done in the context of global emitting capacity expansion.     

可再生能源的国外发展经验与我国的发展选择

世界经济飞速发展进程中,各国普遍面临着能源瓶颈.石油、煤炭等不可再生能源在人类消费的能源结构中占比逐渐降低是一种趋势,各国将关注点放在可再生能源方面,才是谋求经济可持续发展的理性选择.太阳能、风能、潮汐能、地热能、水能、生物质能、核能等可再生能源正在进入发展的快车道.中国、印度等发展中国家在可再生能源的开发方面处在世界前列,很多发达国家也开始转向可再生能源开发.可再生能源相对于传统能源而言,开发成本较高,所以政府需要给予支持政策.发达国家的经验表明,实行配额制是比较可行的,除此之外,还可以进行绿色交易、创新融资机制以及进行财政倾斜等相关制度设计,确保可再生能源得到可持续发展.     

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions

Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO₂ emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.     

Energy transition towards economic and environmental sustainability: feasible paths and policy implications

This paper focuses on growth feasibility in an era of increasing scarcity of fossil fuels. A stylised dynamic model illustrates the implications of investing in smooth technological progress in the field of renewable energy. Positive rates of GDP growth sustained by fossil fuels entail, on the one hand, more income available for R&D in renewable energy sources, and on the other, an acceleration of the exhaustible resource depletion time. Our model explores such a trade-off and highlights the danger of high growth rates. Policies should target low growth rates, stimulate investment in alternative energy sources and discourage consumption growth.     

Energy transition towards economic and environmental sustainability: feasible paths and policy implications

This paper focuses on growth feasibility in an era of increasing scarcity of fossil fuels. A stylised dynamic model illustrates the implications of investing in smooth technological progress in the field of renewable energy. Positive rates of GDP growth sustained by fossil fuels entail, on the one hand, more income available for R&D in renewable energy sources, and on the other, an acceleration of the exhaustible resource depletion time. Our model explores such a trade-off and highlights the danger of high growth rates. Policies should target low growth rates, stimulate investment in alternative energy sources and discourage consumption growth.     

基于情景模糊动态MABAC的可再生能源选择方法

为构建一套有效选择可再生能源的指标体系和评价方法,考虑多种能源的不同特性对环境与经济承载力的制约,围绕经济、环境、技术、社会政治及能源来源质量5个维度,提出能够全面评价可再生能源的指标体系和基于情景模糊动态MABAC（多属性边界逼近区域比较法）的评价方法.在评价方法构建上,采用情景模糊集（picture fuzzy set,PFS）对MABAC进行改进,实现在多准则决策问题中利用模糊信息进行精准决策.在此基础上,将时间因素与MABAC相拟合,进一步求得可再生能源与边界逼近区域的贴近度,确定与地方环境承载力相适宜的可再生能源.结果表明:在考虑时间因素的条件下,风能、太阳能、水能与边界逼近区域的贴近度分别为0.102 66、-0.133 90、0.040 16,说明风能为经济效益最佳的可再生能源,太阳能为可利用能源;在未考虑时间因素条件下,所得到的贴近度则与之存在差异,风能、太阳能、水能与边界逼近区域的贴近度分别为0.011 29、-0.058 00、0.023 40.研究显示,基于情景模糊动态MABAC评价结果与实际情况更相符,且通过模型的验证过程来看,该模型不仅可以提高结果的精确性,也同样易于实施和便于推广.      

Renewable financial support systems and cost-effectiveness

This paper analyses the performance of ‘market-based’ and ‘feed-in tariff’ systems of renewable energy procurement, and comments on the impact of different procurement systems on investment in renewable energy. The ‘market-based’ British Renewables Obligation (RO) is not more cost-effective compared to the German feed in tariff. Although the nominal rates of payment per kWh of renewable energy are higher in Germany, this is more than offset by lower wind speeds in Germany producing a lower return on investment compared to the UK. A harmonised, EU-wide market-based system, would not improve cost-effectiveness, and may serve to reduce, rather than increase, local investment in renewable energy. On the other hand, nationally based green electricity certificate systems like the RO are not intrinsically biased against locally owned or co-operative ventures. Systems are needed which encourage a diversity of investment in renewable energy from local as well as institutional sources.     

On the Effects of Social and Economic Policies on Future Carbon Emissions

Published scenarios of carbon emissions vary over a 40:1 range, and vary greatly even when the possible effects of future climate change policies are ignored. Differences in assumptions about how social and economic policies will affect the rates of economic growth throughout the world, population growth, international trade and investment, the rate of improvement in energy efficiency, and innovations and developments in non-carbon technologies are among the main reasons for such huge differences - alongside the considerable uncertainties that remain about the structural forms and parameters of the economic models used for making projections. The following analysis shows that a low carbon emissions scenario is fully consistent with developing countries achieving economic prosperity and the rich countries increasing theirs. It would depend on the emergence of non-carbon options, such as renewable energy, and this is indeed more likely to happen with favourable conditions for economic growth and innovation.     

Towards sustainable development in Austria: renewable energy contributions

Besides energy conservation, theexploration of renewable energy sources, inparticular biomass and solar energy, arecentral aspects of the Austrian energypolicy, regarded as an optimal option forachieving CO₂-emission reductionobjectives.The market penetration of RenewableEnergy Technologies in the last twentyyears was supported by the AustrianEnergy Research Programme. The result ofsuccessful developments of biomass heating,solar thermal, solar electrical and windenergy technologies is the key for themarket development of these renewableenergy technologies.With the market penetration of renewableenergy technologies new business areas wereestablished and employment created.Today, some renewable energy technologiesin Austria have reached economiccompetitiveness. Some technologies notreached commercialisation, and need moredevelopment to improve efficiency,reliability and cost to become commercial.This would include material and systemdevelopment, pilot plants or fieldexperiments to clarify technical problems,and demonstration plants to illustrateperformance capabilities and to clarifyproblems for commercialisation.     

中国可再生能源发展的环境影响及管理对策

可再生能源并不是“绝对的”清洁能源,其产业链的部分环节也会污染环境和破坏生态。环境管理不善是造成可再生能源项目生态环境破坏的重要原因之一．巨额投资对经济发展的带动作用导致其环保问题被忽视。未来我国可再生能源将持续快速发展,环境影响及生态破坏问题将有可能集中爆发,必须采取有效的管理措施,避免可再生能源环境污染及生态破坏问题,促进可再生能源产业全面均衡健康发展。     

Optimum autonomous photovoltaic solution for the Greek islands on the basisof energy pay-back analysis

Although autonomous photovoltaic (PV) systems are identified as renewable energy technologies able to satisfy the electrification needs of remote consumers, they are strongly accused of their life-cycle energy requirements. To support the specific systems' sustainable character one should be able to ensure minimum period of energy pay-back. In this context, an optimum sizing methodology is developed for stand-alone PV-battery systems in order to obtain configurations of minimum energy content. The proposed methodology is applied to three representative islands across the Greek territory and the results obtained are favourably compared with the up to now – commonly used – diesel-electric generator solution.     

促进我国再生资源产业发展的思路与对策

讨论了政府如何适应变化了的回收体系的管理和服务需要,国际通行的“废物丢弃付费”制度为什么在我国难以实行,如何改变利废企业技术水平低和二次污染等问题。提出以下建议：整顿和规范回收体系;发展二手货市场;加大再生资源加工利用技术开发的投入力度;制定优惠政策,激励再生资源产业发展;对进口废料实行园区化管理;完善法律法规和标准,做好基础性工作;加强能力建设,提高公众意识和参与能力。     

Can Advances in Science and Technology Prevent Global Warming?

The most stringent emission scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would result in the stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) at concentrations of approximately 550 ppm which would produce a global temperature increase of at least 2 ^{^}C by 2100. Given the large uncertainties regarding the potential risks associated with this degree of global warming, it would be more prudent to stabilize atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at or below current levels which, in turn, would require more than 20-fold reduction (i.e., ≥95%) in per capita carbon emissions in industrialized nations within the next 50–100 years. Using the Kaya equation as a conceptual framework, this paper examines whether CO₂ mitigation approaches such as energy efficiency improvements, carbon sequestration, and the development of carbon-free energy sources would be sufficient to bring about the required reduction in per capita carbon emissions without creating unforeseen negative impacts elsewhere. In terms of energy efficiency, large improvements (≥5-fold) are in principle possible through aggressive investments in R&D and the removal of market imperfections such as corporate subsidies. However, energy efficiency improvements per se will not result in a reduction in carbon emissions if, as predicted by the IPCC, the size of the global economy expands 12–26-fold by 2100. Terrestrial carbon sequestration via reforestation and improved agricultural soil management has many environmental advantages, but has only limited CO₂ mitigation potential because the global terrestrial carbon sink (ca. 200 Gt C) is small relative to the size of fossil fuel deposits (≥4000 Gt C). By contrast, very large amounts of CO₂ can potentially be removed from the atmosphere via sequestration in geologic formations and oceans, but carbon storage is not permanent and is likely to create many unpredictable environmental consequences. Renewable energy can in theory provide large amounts of carbon-free power. However, biomass and hydroelectric energy can only be marginally expanded, and large-scale solar energy installations (i.e., wind, photovoltaics, and direct thermal) are likely to have significant negative environmental impacts. Expansion of nuclear energy is highly unlikely due to concerns over reactor safety, radioactive waste management, weapons proliferation, and cost. In view of the serious limitations and liabilities of many proposed CO₂ mitigation approaches, it appears that there remain only few no-regrets options such as drastic energy efficiency improvements, extensive terrestrial carbon sequestration, and cautious expansion of renewable energy generation. These promising CO₂ mitigation technologies have the potential to bring about the required 20-fold reduction in per capita carbon emission only if population and economic growth are halted without delay. Therefore, addressing the problem of global warming requires not only technological research and development but also a reexamination of core values that equate material consumption and economic growth with happiness and well- being.     

GIS and rural electricity planning in Uganda

Sustainable development is literally fuelled by the energy sector. In Uganda, the electricity sector has experienced dramatic market liberation in recent years. This reform was centred around the unbundling of the main government utility, Uganda Electricity Board (UEB), a monopoly divided into three companies created to introduce competition into the market. Market reform has also led to the creation of a regulatory body and a rural electrification fund with the aim of subsidising rural electricity investments. Through a multi-sectoral programme financed by the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the Ministry of Energy is developing a Rural Electrification Master Plan to provide a more systematic tool for rural electricity investments. Unlike previous approaches, this plan is demand driven. This paper discusses the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in the planning process for rural electrification. The aim is to identify patterns of demand and priority areas for investment. By creating a demand-side scenario, electricity can then be supplied to targeted areas. A cross-sectoral view is taken to examine the energy demand patterns using physical data and available country statistics, incorporated into a GIS master database. Based on geo-referenced data of population and existing infrastructure, the initial priority demand-side sectors targeted are education and health. An energy benefit point system is then applied to each sector based on local conditions and needs assessments. Their aggregated points then provide an indicator of energy demand distribution for electricity planning at district level. As a result of this preliminary work, specific areas could then be targeted for investment and optimised supply systems could be designed, which include off-grid renewable energy plants such as small-scale hydropower schemes.     

中国氢燃料电池车燃料生命周期的化石能源消耗和CO2排放

氢燃料电池车(FCV)具有运行阶段高能效和零排放的优点,近年来得到快速的商业化发展.氢能生产具有多种技术路径,不同路径的能源和环境效益存在显著差异.本研究采用生命周期评价方法,运用GREET模型对不同氢燃料路径下的FCV燃料周期(WTW)的化石能源消耗和CO_2排放进行了全面评价.选取了多种制氢路径作为评价对象,建立了中国本地化的FCV燃料生命周期数据库,在此基础上分析了FCV相对传统汽油车的WTW节能减排效益,并和混合动力车和纯电动车进行比较.结果表明,使用可再生电力和生物质等绿色能源制氢供应FCV能取得显著的WTW节能减排效益,可削减约90%的化石能耗和CO_2排放.在发展相对成熟的传统能源制氢路径中,以焦炉煤气制得氢气为原料的FCV,能产生显著的节能减排效益,其化石能耗低于混合动力车,CO_2排放低于混合动力车和纯电动车.结合对资源储备和技术成熟度的考虑,我国在发展氢能及FCV过程中,近期可考虑利用焦炉煤气等工业副产物制氢,并且规划中远期的绿色制氢技术发展.     

An investigation into the energy use in relation to yield of rice (Oryza sativa) in Assam, India

Energy use scenario and resulting rice yield of 576 farms belonging to six agroclimatic zones of Assam, India were investigated. Input energy from eight distinct sources, viz., human, animal, diesel, commercial chemical fertilizer, farm yard manure (FYM), seed, pesticide chemical and machinery were determined on the basis of collected data and using standard procedure. Based on the power sources used and application of commercial chemical fertilizer, four categories of farms were delineated: (i) animal power without commercial fertilizer (APNF), (ii) animal power with commercial fertilizer (APF), (iii) mechanical power without commercial fertilizer (MPNF) and (iv) mechanical power with commercial fertilizer (MPF). The best-fit curve of energy versus yield indicated that use of commercial chemical fertilizer and mechanical power resulted in higher rice yield at higher level of input energy. Moreover, as the use of energy increased the yield increased up to maxima and then declined at higher levels of energy. This was observed in all four categories of farms with variation in yield–energy values. The average values of energy input (MJ ha⁻¹) and corresponding yield (kg ha⁻¹) for the APNF, APF, MPNF and MPF type of farms were (5220, 1980); (9050, 3170); (5100, 2360) and (8320, 3800), respectively. Renewable energy dominated the rice cultivation in Assam contributing more than 50% of the total input energy with the exception of MPF category of farm where share of renewable and non-renewable were found to be almost equal. Among the farm operations, tillage was the highest energy consuming operation followed by threshing, harvesting and transplanting for all four categories of farms. However, it was observed that rice yield was not positively correlated with tillage energy.