A method to improve the international comparability of emission data from industrial installations

Emissions from industrial installations are regulated under several international conventions and directives to prevent harmful impacts on environment and human health. Stricter limitations often exist in national legislations, or due to regional and local conditions, than in the international conventions. The international comparability of emission data from industrial installations is currently poor. Comparability is an essential element when the environmental performance of different installations or techniques is studied, as well as in reviewing data presented in emission registers. The availability of reliable and comparable data is an important requirement for the emissions trading market. Comparable emission data ought to be used when reviewing compliance with the national emission reduction targets established under international conventions, as well as in reviewing the compliance of industrial installations with the requirements set in the environmental permit conditions. There are currently no internationally agreed principles or a comprehensive strategy for production of emission data at the level of an industrial installation.The data production chain principle presented in this paper provides a tool for identifying elements that are essential in comparing emission data correctly and that need to be taken into consideration to ensure emission data reliability. The method was originally developed and applied in Finland for emission and impact monitoring of wastewaters from industrial installations and fisheries. Due to the implementation of the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) directive the methodology was reconstructed for integrated emissions monitoring purposes. The data production principle was introduced for European use when preparing the BREF document on monitoring of emissions. It will also be relevant when the industrial installations report their emissions data to the Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers (PRTRs).     

Cost curve analysis for SO2 and NOx emission control in Finland

The development of air pollution policies requires information on emission control effectiveness, application potential and costs. In this study Finnish cost-effectiveness data were calculated for sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions in 1990 using technical and cost parameters from national operation experience in power plants and industry. Both derived cost curves depicting abated amount of emissions and related annualised costs were comparable with those in the Europe-wide Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model data for Finland using more aggregated input data, part of which were the same for all European countries. The ranking of abatement measures to combat acidifying emissions was explored by combining the controls of both SO₂ and NO_x based on their acidifying potential. The most cost-efficient controls, related mainly to SO₂, were already in use in 1995. A sensitivity analysis for SO₂ indicated that the uncertainty in annual operating hours of combustion plants (±1000 h per annum) has the largest effect on total abatement costs (−7 to −6%), whereas the presumed uncertainties of ±10% in removal efficiencies have the greatest effect of ±11% on total emissions. The national assessment of emission controls was important in describing the country-specific conditions in detail and highlighting the major differences from the RAINS model data and methodology. The results have facilitated the composition of further national reduction measures.     

What contribution can tree plantations make towards meeting Australia’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol?

The Kyoto Protocol has been drafted to bring about an overall reduction in net emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Australia has agreed to limit its increase of net greenhouse gas emissions to 8% between 1990 and 2010. While this target is not as tight as that of other parties to the Protocol, it nonetheless constitutes a significant reduction of net emissions below business-as-usual projections, and it will require significant policy initiatives to achieve this reduction. The Kyoto Protocol allows some carbon sequestration by vegetation sinks to be offset against CO₂ emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. This paper aims to estimate the contribution that forestation projects could make towards meeting Australia’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. It concludes that new plantations could sequester between 0.6 and 7 MtC yr⁻¹ over the commitment period (2008–2012) and offset between about 0.5 and 6% of Australia’s 1990 greenhouse gas emissions. The different estimates depend on the area of eligible plantations that will be established from 1999 onwards and whether plantations will be allowed to grow through to the end of the commitment period or will be in short-rotation stands that may be harvested before 2012. The maximum emission offset can only be achieved if new plantations are established at a rate of 100,000 ha yr⁻¹, which is equivalent to the Australian Government’s target under the 2020 vision. It is likely that sufficient suitable land would be available in Australia to achieve the required establishment rates. However, while such a contribution by vegetation sinks would be helpful, it would not, on its own, be sufficient for Australia to meet its required greenhouse gas emission target.     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agreeing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as "equitable". Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

Greenhouse gas scenarios for Austria: a comparison of different approaches to emission trends

In the present paper, national and externally organized projections of greenhouse gas emissions for Austria were compared to gain insight on the underlying scenario data assumptions. National greenhouse gas emission trends extend until 2030, an assessment of European Union (EU) countries to 2050. In addition, data for 2000–2100 was extracted from the global emission database described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). By identifying trends in these projections, it was possible to produce (a) a long-term assessment of national scenarios until 2100, (b) an assessment of the ambition level toward national climate strategies, and (c) a standardized method to compare trends across countries. By extracting RCP data, Austrian’s methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide emissions up to 2100 could be projected for all sources as well as specific sectors. With respect to the RCP scenario emission data, national projections did not seem to employ the mitigation potentials available for the most stringent RCP scenario, RCP2.6. Comparing projections that supported the EU Climate Strategy 2030 with national projections revealed similar trends. Because RCP2.6 is the only scenario consistent with a 2 °C global warming target, and it is much more ambitious than any of the national or European projections, further measures will be required if Austria is to adequately contribute to this widely accepted policy goal.     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agree-ing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as “equitable”. Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

Elements of a certification system for forestry-based carbon offset projects

Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will require theestablishment of procedures for monitoring,verification and certification of carbon offsetprojects. In this paper, the steps required forindependent certification of forestry-based carbonoffset projects are reviewed, based on the proceduresused by the international certification companySociété Générale de Surveillance.Firstly, a project must be evaluated for itssuitability in relation to eligibility criteria of theKyoto Protocol. These eligibility criteria areclassified under four headings: (a) acceptability tohost country parties and international agreements; (b)additionality, in terms of demonstrated positivegreenhouse gas effects additional to the`business-as-usual' case; (c) externalities orunwanted side effects; and, (d) capacity to implementproject's activities. Secondly, the scientificmethodology for calculating the carbon offsets and themethodology for data collection and statisticalanalysis must be evaluated. Additionally, the amountof carbon offsets quantified must be adjusted toreflect the uncertainty associated with themethodology and data used. Only when these steps havebeen completed can carbon offsets be certified.Finally, the paper discusses the importance ofstandardization of methods and procedures used forproject monitoring and verification, and the need foraccreditation to ensure that the activities ofcertifiers are regulated.     

The Kyoto Protocol could make a difference for the optimal forest-based CO2 mitigation strategy: some results from GORCAM

The Kyoto Protocol was agreed on by more than 150 nations in December, 1997 and (if and when ratified) will establish international commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Under the Kyoto Protocol, some of the carbon emissions and removals within the land-use change and forestry sector can be counted toward a country's commitments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. In addition to the impacts that land-use practices have on CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, changes in the carbon stocks of forests (possibly including forest soils) caused by the direct human activities afforestation, reforestation and deforestation and taking place in the `first commitment period' (2008–2012), are to be accounted for under the Kyoto Protocol. Credits for carbon sinks in the biosphere are limited to projects initiated since 1990. A modified version of the model GORCAM has been used to assess eligible emission-reduction credits under the Kyoto regime and to illustrate how the optimal forest-based strategy for carbon dioxide mitigation might change under the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol offers rewards for only some of the changes in carbon stocks that might occur and hence the forestry project that produces the most emission reduction credits under the Kyoto Protocol is not necessarily the same project that produces the greatest benefit for net emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Supplementing the Protocol with appropriate definitions, interpretations and agreements could help to make sure that it does not provide incentive for activities that run counter to the objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.     

On evaluating accuracy of national methane inventories

In the last few years, nearly all industrialized countries have submitted estimates of national inventories of methane and other greenhouse gases as required under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. National inventories of methane emissions in industrialized countries are fairly complete but give some suggestion of underestimation when inventory totals are compared with recent atmospheric measurements and global budgets. In this paper, possible discrepancies are assessed for fossil fuel sources and landfills based on comparisons between independent estimates and national communications. The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention and the European Union make new provisions to develop procedures for technical review of national inventories and projections, and requirements for more thorough documentation from parties, which should improve accuracy. Limits to accuracy and the political implications of underestimation are discussed in this article, along with suggestions for improving inventories through better analysis, documentation and review procedures.     

生物多样性保护的法律制度

生物多样性保护是一项法律制度，１９８４年以来，仅国际条约、多边协定、双边协定就有１００多个。中国已加入５个国际公约，并在国内颁布了一系列全国和地方性法规。为了进一步完善云南省生物多样性保护的法律制度，必须继续加强立法，强化执法，实现保护工作的规范化和法制化。     

Measuring countries’ cooperation within the international climate change regime

We present a method how to estimate and compare the cooperative behavior of countries within the international climate change regime. Two indicators measure whether and how fast countries have committed to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol (KP). Three additional indicators quantify whether and how effectively measures have been implemented in line with these agreements. These three measures are reporting, financial contributions, and development of per capita CO₂ emissions in relation to the per capita gross domestic product of each country. Results show that developed countries with emission targets under the KP ratified the protocol more often and faster, submitted their report timelier, and paid their annual financial contributions to the UNFCCC secretariat more regularly than the other countries. However, concerning CO₂ emissions, developing countries are evaluated more positively than developed countries. The five indicators are aggregated to a ‘Cooperation Index’ that evaluates 198 countries’ cooperative behavior within the international climate regime on a scale between 0 (=least cooperative) and 6 (=most cooperative). According to this Cooperation Index, the following large countries are ranked after their level of cooperation in ascending order: United States of America, Australia, Russia, Canada, Brazil, China, India, South Africa, and large European countries.     

When implementation works: A comparison of Ramsar Convention implementation in different continents

What are the processes that shape implementation of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) in multilevel governance? In an attempt to address this question, we move from a top-down view of implementation as compliance with international rules to viewing it as a dynamic process shaped by action at various levels. The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands offers an important context to understand the mechanisms that shape multilevel implementation outcomes. We examine Ramsar Convention implementation in Austria, Mexico, and the Republic of Korea in order to identify relevant processes that define multilevel implementation. These cases represent three different types of government, and shed light on the ways in which international law is implemented by respective governments. The Austrian case, a federal government, illustrates the ways in which subnational authorities (the provinces) are influenced by binding regional institutions (EU-rules) to create a more robust context for protection in terms of designation of Ramsar sites. The Mexican case, a semi-federal government, shows how spurred involvement by local NGOs, states, and scientists can result in significant expansion of efforts. The Korean case, a unitary government, demonstrates the ways in which aligning institutional interests (in this case local governments with national ministries) can lead to strong implementation. Analysis of these cases provides two robust findings and one deserving additional study. First, overlapping governance efforts where activity has ties with multiple regional and international biodiversity efforts tend to see cumulative implementation. Second, institutional and organizational complexity can provide opportunities for local actors to drive the implementation agenda through a mix of processes of coordination and contentious politics. A third, more tentative finding, is that multilevel funding sources can ease implementation.     

Negotiated environmental and occupational health and safety agreements in the United States: lessons for policy

The interest in so-called voluntary approaches to supplement or replace formal environmental, or occupational health and safety regulation has taken on new importance in both Europe and the United States. These approaches fall into two sharp divisions: (1) industry-initiated codes of good practice focusing on environmental management systems or performance goals, and (2) negotiated agreements between government and individual firms or industry sector trade associations focusing on regulation or compliance. This paper addresses the latter.In the United States, the motivations behind negotiated agreements are manifold and sometimes contradictory including desires (1) to facilitate the achievement of legislated or mandatory environmental goals by introducing flexibility and cost-effective compliance measures, (2) to negotiate levels of compliance (standards) fulfilling legislative mandates, (3) to negotiate legal definitions of Best Available Technology and other technology-based requirements, and (4) to weaken environmental initiatives. Efforts in furtherance of negotiated agreements have thus been greeted with mixed results by the various stakeholders. In the context of an anti-regulatory climate in the United States, the Administrative Procedures Act has been amended to allow “negotiated rulemaking” in achieving regulatory agency mandates. However, even before this legal innovation, regulatory agencies have been negotiating regulations. Independent of this legal avenue, negotiated compliance with industry associations is being fostered through the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) “Commonsense Initiative” and with individual firms through “EPA's Project XL”, again with mixed reception.The proposed paper describes and analyses negotiated agreements in the United States in the context of (1) EPA efforts to ensure environmental protection and (2) the Occupational Safety and Health Administration efforts to ensure worker health and safety. These agreements can be described according to the following taxonomy: (a) Negotiated regulation (either preceding formal regulation or as a substitute for formal regulation); (b) Negotiated compliance (implementing regulation or informal agreements) (i) the means and timetable for coming into compliance with emission, effluent, or concentration requirements (ii) negotiation in the context of an enforcement action in which the firm is out of legal compliance (for example, encouraging cleaner production through the leveraging of penalty reductions).The criteria for evaluation include: environmental or health and safety outcomes, effects on stimulating technological change, time for development (time to completion)/implementation (likelihood of court challenge), stakeholder influence (ability of large firms to dominate outcome, environmentalists–industry, or labour–management balance of power),and administrative features.     

Uncertainty analysis of emission estimates in the RAINS integrated assessment model

Uncertainty is a critical issue for all models that attempt to quantify the necessary emission reductions that are required to meet environmental quality targets. This paper discusses a methodology specifically developed to analyse the uncertainties in the emission estimates with the regional air pollution information and simulation (RAINS) integrated assessment model, considering the uncertainties in the model parameters themselves. Overall, it was found that a typical range of uncertainties for modeled national emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonia in Europe lies between 10 and 30%. In general, the uncertainties are strongly dependent on the potential for error compensation. This compensation potential is larger (and uncertainties are smaller) if calculated emissions are composed of a larger number of equal-sized source categories, where the errors in input parameters are not correlated with each other. Thus, estimates of the national total emissions are generally more certain than estimates of sectoral emissions. A sensitivity analysis with respect to the uncertainty in input parameters showed that the actual uncertainties are critically influenced by the specific situation (pollutant, year, country). However, the emission factor is an important contributor to the uncertainty in estimates of historical emissions, while uncertainty in the activity data dominates the future estimates.     

Improving the quality of national greenhouse gas inventories

This paper summarises the findings of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Expert Meeting on Methods for the Assessment of Inventory Data Quality held in Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 5–7 November 1997. Under the Kyoto Protocol of the Climate Convention, reliable inventories of national greenhouse gases (GHG) are needed for verifying compliance. Four approaches are suggested for assessing and improving the quality of greenhouse gas inventories: inventory quality assurance; inventory comparisons; model comparisons; and direct emission measurements. The paper presents recommendations for improving the quality of emission estimates of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O).     

中国碳强度下降和碳排放增长的行业贡献分解研究

现阶段碳强度约束性指标和总量控制碳排放权交易试点是中国温室气体减排的两种重要手段,研究各行业及其相关因素对全国碳强度和碳排放变化的影响机制对制定行业碳强度减排政策和选择碳交易体系纳管行业具有重要意义.运用LMDI模型对1996~2010年中国碳强度以及碳排放变化进行了行业贡献分解.结果表明,全国碳强度下降受各行业碳强度和增加值占比变化的影响,前者贡献较大,后者贡献较小;全国碳排放增长受各行业碳强度和增加值变化的影响,前者起到抑制效应,后者发挥决定性的促进作用.电力、热力的生产和供应业,非金属矿物制品业,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业,交通运输、仓储及邮电通迅业,化学原料及化学品制造业等5个行业对全国碳强度下降和碳排放增长的贡献最大;石油加工及炼焦业和建筑业对全国碳强度下降贡献较小,但对碳排放增长贡献较大;它们是我国碳强度约束和总量控制试点应当重点关注的减排领域.第三产业对全国碳排放增长的贡献呈上升趋势,尤其是交通运输、仓储及邮电通迅业和批发和零售贸易业、餐饮业,应当逐步加强对其进行碳排放管控.     

Leakage and Comparative Advantage Implications of Agricultural Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation

The world is moving toward efforts to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. Reduction efforts may involve the agricultural sector through options such as planting of trees, altering crop and livestock management, and increasing production of biofuels. However, such options can be competitive with domestic food production. In a free trade arena, reduced domestic food production could stimulate increased production and exports in other countries, which are not pursuing net emission reductions. As a consequence, emission reduction efforts in implementing countries may be offset by production increases stimulated in other countries. We examine the competitive effects of agriculturally related emission reduction actions on agricultural production and international trade. In doing this, we employ the assumption that U.S. emission reduction caused cost increases will also occur in other reducing countries. We consider emission reduction: 1) unilaterally by the U.S., 2) by all Kyoto Protocol Annex B countries, and 3) globally. The results, which are only suggestive of the types of effects that would be observed due to the simplifying cost assumptions, indicate compliance causes supply cutbacks in regulated countries and increases in non-regulated countries. The study results show that producers in regulating countries are likely to benefit and consumers lose due to commodity price increases. Seniority of Authorship is shared among the first three authors.     

基于测点环境浓度影响的点源应急强化减排分析

基于预报气象条件、广州及周边城市的重点企业排放清单,采用CALPUFF模型模拟2010年亚运会开幕式期间重点企业对广州市内空气质量监测点的相对环境浓度影响,据此筛选得出预报不利气象条件下工业点源应急强化减排名单,并利用GIS可视化技术分析点源强化减排效果,为空气质量保障的专家会商提供依据.广州亚运会期间点源应急强化减排实施效果表明,有针对性地对测点环境浓度影响大的企业实施强化减排措施,可有效缓解个别点位的一定范围内超标问题.本文提出的研究方法和配套的GIS软件可为不利气象条件下工业点源的应急强化减排提供辅助决策服务和数据支持.     

Management effectiveness in UNESCO Biosphere Reserves: Learning from Canadian periodic reviews

Calls for management effectiveness of protected areas have been made on the grounds that evaluation can help determine the ability of protected areas to meet their goals, identify opportunities and threats, and encourage stakeholders to adapt to changing conditions. In 1995, the Statutory Framework of the World Network of biosphere reserves included a requirement that all biosphere reserves must undergo a process of periodic review once every 10 years. The primary purpose of the periodic review is to evaluate the effectiveness of biosphere reserve organizations in achieving the objectives related to three functions: biodiversity conservation, sustainable development, and logistical support. Beyond meeting statutory requirements, the periodic review process can also be considered an opportunity for learning within and beyond the national and international networks. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how management effectiveness in Canadian biosphere reserves has been interpreted through the periodic review process conducted in Canada. A content analysis was performed on the 15 periodic review reports of the 11 Canadian biosphere reserves reviewed between 1995 and 2012. Determining compliance appears to be the dominant purpose of periodic reviews, while determining and providing learning opportunities through periodic review is emerging. We conclude that periodic reviews can be used as learning tools if systematic efforts are made to evaluate, reflect, and share lessons learned. Specific recommendations are provided to enhance this possibility.