基于Logistic的辽河口湿地景观格局变化驱动力分析

文章以辽河口湿地景观格局为例,考虑湿地景观格局变化过程的空间变量,建立了不同湿地景观格局变化过程的二元Logistic回归模型。模拟结果表明:模型中转为建筑用地的主要解释变量是城镇人口变化率;转为芦苇地的主要解释变量是农村人口变化率和过境水资源变化率;转为水稻田的主要解释变量是农村人口变化率;转为养殖池的主要解释变量是第一产值变化率和农村人口变化率。空间异质性和湿地景观格局变化过程的时间变量共同影响着使用二元Logistic回归模型来解释湿地景观格局变化驱动力的能力;通过对各个模型的二元Logistic回归模型进行检验,得出空间统计模型能较好地揭示不同湿地景观格局变化过程的主要驱动力及其作用机理。     

闽江河口湿地自然保护区及其周边景观动态变化及预测研究

在遥感和地理信息系统的支持下,通过解译2003年和2013年两个时期的遥感影像,获取闽江河口湿地自然保护区及周边区域的土地景观类型转化数据,确定相应的转移概率矩阵,应用马尔科夫模型模拟研究区域土地景观演变情况.并选取合适的景观格局指数,对闽江河口湿地自然保护区及周边区域的景观格局变化和驱动力进行研究和分析.结果表明:2003~2023年间,随着人类活动强度的增加,闽江河口湿地自然保护区内自然斑块减少,人工斑块增多,景观趋于破碎化、复杂化.海岸线侵蚀、城市扩张、政策导向等是闽江河口湿地及周边区域景观格局变化的主要驱动因素.     

中巴资源卫星在双台子河口湿地景观格局变化研究中的应用

应用1987年一景Landsat5 TM数据及2005年一景CBERS-02星CCD数据对双台子河口湿地进行了景观格局变化研究.通过对两期图像进行景观类型分类,计算获取了两个时期的斑块类型水平和景观水平的景观格局指数,并对其进行了分析,同时应用转移矩阵模型研究了各类景观的转化情况.研究结果表明,在1987～2005年间,研究区湿地景观类型变化比较显著,大量天然湿地在人类活动干扰下演变为人工湿地.该区域湿地景观异质程度上升,整体景观类型呈现均衡化方向发展的趋势.通过研究也表明,中巴资源卫星在湿地景观格局变化研究领域中有很好的应用能力.     

基于CA-Markov模型的辽河三角洲湿地景观格局预测

应用遥感与地理信息系统技术,结合辽河三角洲地区实际情况分别对该地区1988、1998、2008年3期遥感影像进行分类、解译,系统地获取地区景观格局状况,分析动态变化特征,并运用CA-Markov模型对未来湿地景观格局进行模拟预测。结果表明:在1988-2008年辽河三角洲地区湿地景观格局随时间变化明显。具体表现在自然景观类型面积不断减小,人为景观类型面积不断增大;近海地区景观格局变化剧烈,内陆地区景观格局变化趋于稳定;同时通过CA-Markov模型对2018年景观格局进行预测可以发现景观格局未来将继续向人为驱动方向发展,人类活动将对该地区景观格局变化产生更为深远的影响。     

近20年盘锦湿地变化特征及影响因素分析

辽河三角洲是我国和亚洲最大的暖温带滨海湿地,盘锦湿地即位于辽河三角洲的核心地带。通过对不同时期卫星遥感资料的对比解译和分类提取,定量分析了近20年盘锦湿地的变化特征;同时从气候变化、土地利用等角度分析了盘锦湿地变化的主要影响因子。结果表明：过去20年来盘锦地区的土地利用格局发生了显著变化,自然湿地正逐渐被农田等人工用地取代,呈现自然湿地面积锐减、人工湿地面积逐渐增多的趋势,变化幅度较大的依次为水体(65.2%)＞滩涂(21.1%)＞水田(20.1%)。湿地水域面积与年降雨量之间存在极显著正相关关系。气候暖干化、土地资源的不合理开发利用等自然、人为因素的耦合作用是盘锦湿地退化的主要原因。     

填海造地对港湾湿地环境影响研究的新视角

选择具有重要典型意义的沿海高度城市化及快速城市扩张地区港湾湿地为例,采取多学科方法交叉集成(环境科学、海岸海洋科学、景观生态学及地理信息科学)的研究途径,探索填海造地对港湾湿地景观格局及沉积环境的影响,即尝试从宏观尺度上研究填海造地影响下典型港湾湿地景观格局现状与时空演变,微观尺度上高分辨率提取填海造地影响下典型港湾湿地沉积物环境要素的时空变异信息,进而构建"填海造地环境行为驱动～港湾湿地环境响应"模型定量研究填海造地、港湾湿地景观格局及沉积环境要素三者之间的非线性时序关系及作用机制,为港湾地区科学填海、合理用海的有效管理提供科学依据.     

景观指标与滨海湿地生态系统健康评价

景观格局提供了一种直接度量人类活动导致土地覆盖改变的方法.这种方法可以监测人类活动改变土地覆盖的数量和空间格局,而土地覆盖及其格局变化与海岸带侵蚀、滨海湿地非点源污染和物种多样性变化等生态过程密切相关.本文首先综述了滨海湿地生态系统健康监测的理化、生物、水文和物理生境方法,在此基础上探讨了如何利用土地覆盖变化的景观指标来评价滨海湿地生态系统的健康状态,并对比分析了景观指标与其它常用评价指标的优劣,提出景观指标也是滨海湿地生态系统健康评价的重要指标.     

太平湖国家湿地公园土地利用转换及景观格局变化

该文根据近30年来（1990-2020年）的遥感影像数据，综合运用GIS和景观格局指数方法，对黄山市太平湖国家湿地公园的土地利用转换及景观格局的变化进行分析。结果表明，（1）1990-2020年期间，黄山太平湖湿地公园的主要土地利用类型是林地，水体和建筑的土地利用面积波动较大。（2）研究区域在30年间，建设用地的平均斑块面积最小，景观斑块破碎零散；耕地对景观的控制度逐年下降；水体的斑块形状复杂，受人为干扰程度不显著；建设用地斑块形状较规则，受人类活动影响大。（3）2015年景观破碎度达到峰值；2000年区域景观的连通性最大，空间格局分布最均匀；2020年景观形状最复杂，生物多样性最大，景观丰富度最大，各类景观均衡发展。公园景观格局变化是自然因素和人为因素共同作用的结果，其中旅游开发、政策的影响导致了景观格局发生改变，气候、降水对研究区域的景观格局变化也造成了一定的影响。     

武汉城市湿地景观格局及生态系统服务功能演变轨迹与驱动机制

在城市化背景下,研究了湿地景观格局和生态功能的演变规律及影响因素,对湿地保护和国土空间规划具有重要指导意义。以武汉市为研究对象,分析了1980—2010年武汉市湿地土地利用时空变化轨迹及驱动过程轨迹,并通过InVEST模型等方法评估了1980—2020年武汉市生境质量、碳储量、洪水调蓄、景观文化4项生态系统服务功能及其驱动机制。结果表明：养殖、退耕还湿、演替、围垦和城市扩张等单一人为驱动过程主导了湿地景观格局演变,4项生态系统服务均有不同程度降低,退耕还湿、退养还湿等生态工程能够有效提升区域生态功能,但存在管理维护不足的问题。该研究成果有助于明确在快速城市化下湿地生态系统所受到的威胁,以便更好地提出长期湿地保护的对策及规划。     

盐城海岸带景观格局与土地利用变化分析

土地利用/土地覆被变化（LUCC）是当前全球变化研究的重要内容,而景观空间格局动态分析则是景观生态学研究的核心内容之一。盐城海岸带是人类干扰强度较大的区域,自然湿地被大面积围垦,围垦后的土地不断被改变为不同的土地利用类型。本文选择盐城海岸带为研究区域,利用GIS和RS技术对1999年和2009年卫片和航片进行了提取、分类和分析,并计算了景观格局指数,分析了近10年来土地利用及景观格局变化。结果表明：耕地基本没有变化,林地、养殖池、河流水体、农村居民点等不断增加,潮滩大大减少,城镇发展缓慢。盐城海岸带的景观基质是耕地,景观和类型尺度上的分维数都接近于1,表明盐城海岸带受人类活动影响较大,而且有加剧趋势。随着人类活动程度的加剧,景观多样性稍有下降,均匀度上升。     

The last decade in ecological climate change impact research: where are we now?

Climate change is increasingly affecting organisms and ecosystems. The amount of research and the number of articles in this field is overwhelming. However, single studies necessarily consider limited aspects. Hence, there is an increasing need for structuring the research approaches and findings in climate change research in order to direct future action in an efficient way towards research gaps and areas of uncertainty. Here, we review the current state of knowledge accumulated over the last 10 years (2003–2012) about impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. Almost 1,200 articles of the scientific literature listed in the ISI Web of Science are analysed. We explore the geographical distribution of knowledge gain, the studied taxonomic groups, ecosystems and environmental parameters as well as the applied methods. Several knowledge gaps arise. Most of the first authors of the analysed articles are residents of North America, Australia or Europe. A similar pattern is found for the study areas. Vascular plants and therewith forests are the most studied taxonomic group and ecosystem. The use of models to estimate potential impacts of climate change is well established in climate change impact research and is continuously developing. However, there is a lack of empirical data derived from experimental climate change simulations. In a rapidly evolving research landscape, this review aims at providing an overview of the current patterns of knowledge distribution and research demands arising from knowledge gaps and biases. Our results should help to identify future research needs and priorities.     

湿地资源研究进展与发展方向

湿地资源研究是对湿地资源类型与特征、数量与质量进行调查和评估,揭示湿地资源各要素间的相互作用以及人类活动对湿地资源的影响,协调湿地资源保护与合理利用关系。论文分析了湿地资源研究的现状与战略需求;国内外在湿地资源监测,湿地资源功能评价,湿地水资源与生态恢复,湿地生物资源保护,湿地与全球变化,城市湿地与城市湿地公园,湿地生态旅游,典型区域湿地动态演变与人类活动影响,以及新技术和新方法在湿地研究中的应用等领域最新进展。并结合国内外湿地资源研究发展趋势,指出了未来湿地资源研究发展方向。     

Landscape patterns and parcel boundaries: an analysis of composition and configuration of land use and land cover in south-central Indiana

In many areas of the world, socioeconomic and political factors are increasingly impacting spatial patterns of land use and land cover in the landscape. Much of the land in the United States has been divided using a grid-based system that was implemented to realize socioeconomic and political goals rather than to protect and conform to biophysical differences. The borders of individual parcels of land often reflect the boundary lines created by this system. These borders are important components of policies related to land management such as zoning and private land use decisions. The potential impact this system of land division may have on spatial patterns in a landscape remains unclear. The majority of landscape research has focused exclusively on biophysical differences occurring over relatively large areas of land and ignored possible finer-scale, human impacts on landscape composition and configuration. There is a need for research on spatial patterns occurring over areas that match socioeconomically or politically important units of land in order to improve understanding of relationships between human related processes and ecosystem functions and to create better management policies.This research explores whether the system of land parcelization is evident in patterns of land use and land cover in the landscape of south-central Indiana. In particular, it investigates whether parcel boundaries correspond to distinct changes in the composition and configuration of forest, developed, and agricultural lands. This research uses theory and methodology from geography, geographic information science, and landscape ecology to analyze patterns of land use and land cover in a rural to semi-rural county in south-central Indiana. A classification of a remotely sensed image is used as a basis for calculating metrics of landscape composition and configuration with the use of a geographic information system. The metrics are calculated for areas of forest, developed, and agricultural land associated with a sample of parcels chosen to represent all the parcels within Monroe County. The values for areas near the parcel boundaries are compared with the values for areas at relatively short distances from the parcel boundaries. This comparison indicates whether there is a distinct change in the composition or configuration of the landscape occurring at approximately the parcel boundaries.The results suggest that in Monroe County, Indiana, changes in the composition of the landscape, particularly the amount of area covered by agriculture and forest, correspond with parcel boundaries. Changes in the configuration of agricultural and, to a lesser extent, developed lands also occur near parcel boundaries. The results support the hypothesis that the grid-based system of parcelization has affected spatial patterns of land use and land cover. These results illustrate the potential impact socioeconomic and political systems may have on spatial patterns in a landscape.     

艾比湖湿地土地利用/覆被-景观格局和气候变化的生态环境效应研究

借助Arc GIS与ENVI软件,以1998年、2006年和2014年遥感影像Landsat TM/OLI为数据源,得到3期艾比湖湿地自然保护区土地利用/覆被类型图.在空间尺度上将研究区分为3个特定研究单元来分析土地利用/覆被变化特征,并从景观格局和气候变化两个方面来进行生态环境效应研究.通过计算土地利用/覆被类型生态风险指数,从而获得研究区生态安全指数,最终建立艾比湖湿地自然保护区土地利用/覆被类型与生态环境之间的数量关系,并对整体及局部地区进行生态环境质量动态分析.结果表明,水域和其他(裸地和戈壁)是研究区内的优势景观类型.水域的平均斑块面积最大,水域和其他(裸地和戈壁)的最大斑块指数较高,盐碱地和其他(裸地和戈壁)的分维度指数较高,水域和其他(裸地和戈壁)的聚集度指数较大,林草地空间分布离散,破碎化程度高,连通性差.1998—2014年期间多样性指数增加,说明各景观类型所占比例趋于均衡化,作为优势景观类型的湿地对整个景观的控制作用减小,景观异质性增加.1998—2014年间,艾比湖湿地自然保护区总体生态环境指数呈逐步升高趋势,但生态环境质量的改善与恶化同时存在,并在特定研究单元上出现明显的区域分异特征.盐碱地、其他(裸地和戈壁)向湿地及荒漠向其他(裸地和戈壁)的转化是环境改善的主导因素.湿地向水域和其他(裸地和戈壁)的转变是环境恶化的主导因素.据1998—2014年的气象资料,降水量呈下降趋势,降水减少使植物存活率降低,导致植被覆盖率下降,从而影响生态环境的健康发展.另外,在分析驱动机制的基础上,建立了优选多元线性回归方程,结果表明,在景观指数和年径流量中,艾比湖湿地自然保护区生态环境指数的变化与平均斑块面积和分维度指数均呈显著相关.该研究对艾比湖湿地自然保护区土地利用合理规划管理、生态恢复和经济发展政策的制定有着非常重要的意义.     

气候变化对文冠果适宜生境及空间迁移的影响

以文冠果当前地理分布数据为基础,采用物种分布模型（SDM）预测未来气候变化条件下的物种适宜生境及其空间迁移趋势,进而识别可能引起迁移的气候异常因子.结果表明：在当前气候条件下,文冠果适宜生境集中于甘肃东部、宁夏南部、陕西中北部、山西中部及南部,以及青海东部边缘、内蒙-陕西边界区域、河南北部和河北西北部边缘等地区;在气候变化条件下,文冠果适宜生境呈现出整体分布格局基本不变的基础上高适宜生境略有缩减且向东迁移的趋势,不同气候变化情景下的生境丧失率为3.73%~16.6%;在未来极端气候变化情景下,文冠果空间迁移格局绝大部分适宜生境仍为恒有稳定区,迁出丧失区主要集中在适宜生境的西北部和东南部且呈连续分布,迁入新增区仅零散分布于适宜生境的边缘地带,包括内蒙与陕西交界处、山西北部等地;采用多元环境相似度面（MESS）和最不相似变量（MOD）空间分析识别出气候异常区主要位于当前适宜生境的南北边缘,与空间迁移格局相一致.可能引起空间迁移的气候异常因子主要为年平均温度、降水量变异系数和年均降水量.空间迁移区域作为气候变化的高敏感区应予以重视,同时应针对不同的空间迁移区域制定合理有效的资源利用和土地管理策略.     

预处理对尿液长期存储过程的影响及机理分析

针对尿液盐度高、成分复杂,存储过程中性质易变等问题,以有机与无机物质的变化特征为考察对象,研究浓H₂SO₄、陶瓷膜和活性炭等预处理对尿液存储过程中性质变化的影响,并分析其转化机理.结果表明,尿液性质变化的主要反应是尿素分解及其引发的无机共沉淀现象,且随着氨氮浓度由1365升高至2755mg/L,沉淀逐渐由磷酸盐向鸟粪石转变.浓H₂SO₄预处理通过抑制尿素分解实现尿液性质稳定,而陶瓷膜处理和活性炭吸附促进尿素分解,且活性炭可有效吸附氮元素.同时,荧光光谱的研究发现尿液存储过程中DOM（溶解性有机物）组分也发生了显著变化：浓H₂SO₄预处理组中E₂₈₀/E₄₇₂、A_275~295、E₂₅₄/E₃₆₅、E₃₀₀/E₄₀₀的升高表明DOM中疏水性及小分子有机物浓度增加,而UV₂₅₄、A_350~400的降低也印证了芳香性有机物含量的降低.陶瓷膜与活性炭可去除有机物,但陶瓷膜对尿素的去除效率高于其他有机组分,而活性炭对芳香性有机物的去除比例最高.本文系统阐明了尿液存储中性质变化过程与机制,并论证了不同预处理的影响,为尿液源分离处理提供有效的参考.     

Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA

Climate projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales are essential to assess potential future climate change impacts on climatologically diverse regions such as the northeast United States. Here, we show how both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods applied to relatively coarse-scale atmosphere-ocean general circulation model output are able to improve simulation of spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation across the region. We then develop high-resolution projections of future climate change across the northeast USA, using IPCC SRES emission scenarios combined with these downscaling methods. The projections show increases in temperature that are larger at higher latitudes and inland, as well as the potential for changing precipitation patterns, particularly along the coast. While the absolute magnitude of change expected over the coming century depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing, significantly higher increases in temperature and in winter precipitation are expected under a higher as compared to lower scenario of future emissions from human activities.     

松嫩平原西部湿地自然保护区保护有效性遥感分析

以松嫩平原西部国家级湿地自然保护区为研究对象,以Landsat MSS/TM/OLI遥感影像为基础信息源,综合运用最小均方差、变异系数、景观指数、信息熵模型、地理信息系统空间分析和景观发展强度指数,研究保护区保护有效性变化及其影响因素.结果表明:松嫩平原西部国家级湿地自然保护区保护有效性大致呈递减趋势;1987~2013年人类活动对保护区的干扰强度不断增加,且与保护区保护有效性呈显著负相关;耕地和草地为湿地转出的主要类型,分别占总转出面积的63.71%和21.69%;湿地自然保护区保护有效性的降低是自然环境变化和人类活动影响共同作用的结果,自然环境变化是内因,而人为活动干扰,尤其是开垦造田和水利修建加速了湿地退化.最后,论文就研究中存在的不足以及保护区管理建设中应关注的问题进行了阐述.     

Assessing high impacts of climate change: spatial characteristics and relationships of hydrological ecosystem services in northern Japan (Teshio River watershed)

Ecosystem services (ESs) provide information on the tendency of ecosystems to reach and form a state of equilibrium. The process of ES changes is important in order to identify the climate change-related causes that occur regionally to globally. ES-based management plays an important role in mitigation strategies for the negative impact of global climate change on ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate spatial characteristics and relationships among these multiple services from different spatial scales which could aid in multiple ES sustainable development from local to global scales. In this study, we developed a framework for analyzing the spatial characteristics and interactive relationships of multiple ESs. We analyzed the spatial distributions of six hydrological ESs that are important in the northernmost part of Japan (Teshio River watershed) by using hydrology and nutrient model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) under baseline climate conditions and climate change derived from the global circulation model (GCM). We then explored the spatial characteristic scales of ESs by multiscale analysis (lacunarity estimation) to reveal provision flow and spatial distribution characteristics for hydrological ESs. We observed a strong relationship between the spatial characteristics of land uses and ES provision. The spatial characteristics of individual hydrological ESs were totally different and had different spatial homogeneity and cluster (indicated by initial lacunarity index and lacunarity dimension). The results also showed trade-offs between inorganic nutrient retention (provision ESs) and organic nutrient and sediment retentions (regulating ESs), and synergies between organic nutrient retention and sediment retention under all climate change scenarios. The different stakeholders will take different mitigation programs (e.g., establishing riparian vegetation, planning nutrient management practices, and integrating climate change model into systematic conservation planning of ESs) to avoid negative impacts of climate change on ESs. Application of this proposed framework to study the spatial characteristics and relationships of hydrological ESs under climate change could provide understanding on the impact of climate change on ES changes and solutions to mitigate strategies to cope with those changes in the future.