The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part II—Integrating impacts with adaptive capacity

In the first paper in this series [Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H., Howden, S.M. (2010, this issue)], we concluded that hazard/impact modelling needs to be integrated with holistic measures of adaptive capacity in order to provide policy-relevant insights into the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability. In this paper, we combine hazard/impact modelling with an holistic measure of adaptive capacity to analyse the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Bioeconomic modelling was used to model the exposure and sensitivity of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Rural livelihoods analysis was used as a conceptual framework to construct a composite index of adaptive capacity using farm survey data. We then show how this integrated measure of vulnerability provides policy-relevant insights into the constraints and options for building adaptive capacity in rural communities. In the process, we show that relying on hazard/impact modelling alone can lead to entirely erroneous conclusions about the vulnerability of rural communities, with potential to significantly misdirect policy intervention. We provide a preliminary assessment of which Australian rural communities are vulnerable to climate variability and change, and reveal a complex set of interacting environmental, economic and social factors contributing to vulnerability.     

Policy integration for adaptive water governance: Learning from Scotland's experience

This paper contributes to on-going attempts at bringing together two influential ideas in water governance: Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) and adaptive governance. In particular, a tension remains between the call in IWRM for the use of formal institutions, such as river basin organisations, to secure public policy integration, and the assumptions in adaptive governance in favour of informal collaboration between essentially independent policy actors. To clarify this relationship, this article draws on theoretical research on public policy integration, and uses these insights in an empirical setting to identify mechanisms that can facilitate effective policy integration for adaptive water governance. The research is based on recent attempts in Scotland to implement IWRM ideas to improve flood management. Several governance mechanisms were adopted to facilitate the integration of flood, water and rural land use policies. Six Scottish policy regimes are analysed using documentary sources and interviews. Results challenge the idea that collaboration should primarily be built on either river basin organisations or informal mechanisms. We identify a mix of informal and statutory-based mechanisms which may secure political and technocratic commitment to policy integration.     

Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States

Directly or indirectly, positively or negatively, climate change will affect all sectors and regions of the United States. The impacts, however, will not be homogenous across regions, sectors, population groups or time. The literature specifically related to how climate change will affect rural communities, their resilience, and adaptive capacity in the United States (U.S.) is scarce. This article bridges this knowledge gap through an extensive review of the current state of knowledge to make inferences about the rural communities vulnerability to climate change based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. Our analysis shows that rural communities tend to be more vulnerable than their urban counterparts due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, poverty incidence, and dependency on government funds. Climate change impacts on rural communities differs across regions and economic sectors; some will likely benefit while others lose. Rural communities engaged in agricultural and forest related activities in the Northeast might benefit, while those in the Southwest and Southeast could face additional water stress and increased energy cost respectively. Developing adaptation and mitigation policy options geared towards reducing climatic vulnerability of rural communities is warranted. A set of regional and local studies is needed to delineate climate change impacts across rural and urban communities, and to develop appropriate policies to mitigate these impacts. Integrating research across disciplines, strengthening research-policy linkages, integrating ecosystem services while undertaking resource valuation, and expanding alternative energy sources, might also enhance coping capacity of rural communities in face of future climate change.     

The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part I—Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability

Vulnerability is a term frequently used to describe the potential threat to rural communities posed by climate variability and change. Despite growing use of the term, analytical measures of vulnerability that are useful for prioritising and evaluating policy responses are yet to evolve. Demand for research capable of prioritising adaptation responses has evolved rapidly with an increasing awareness of climate change and its potential impacts on rural communities. Research into the climate-related vulnerability of Australian rural communities is only just beginning to emerge. Current research is dominated by hazard/impact modelling, drawing on a heritage of managing the risks posed by seasonal climate variability. There is a natural tendency to use the same risk management approach to understand the emergent nature of vulnerability. In this paper, we explore the consequences for policy advice of imperfectly examining vulnerability through the lens of an impact/hazard modelling approach to risk management. In a second paper in this series, we show how hazard/impact modelling can be complemented with more holistic measures of adaptive capacity to provide quantitative insights into the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change.     

Citizen science for policy development: The case of koala management in South Australia

Citizen science involves the engagement of non-scientists in scientific research. Citizen science projects have been reported to be useful in policy development but there is little detail of how projects have contributed. The citizen science project, the Great Koala Count (GKC) collected ecological data about koalas and social data that have been used in the initial stages of the development of a South Australian Government koala management and conservation policy. After the GKC, we conducted an online survey of people who participated in the project and a control group. The survey focussed on opinions towards possible management options for koalas in South Australia. GKC participants were also asked about project-related changes in knowledge and opinions. We received 970 valid surveys and found some differences in opinions between GKC participants and the control group. Therefore, the GKC did not provide a representative sample of the entire South Australian population. However, we contend that the data from the citizen scientists are still valuable for policy development as it has been provided by people who are highly engaged in the topic (koala management in this case). It can be difficult to engage the public in the policy development process, and the citizen science project enabled the collection of a wide range of opinions, helping to discover and define relevant issues. Additionally, many people learnt about koalas and koala-related management issues, and some changed their opinions regarding koala management, also useful outcomes from the project in the policy development context. Our findings suggest that citizen science is useful for policy makers because projects provide the opportunity for dialogue with the people most interested in the topic of the project.     

Plenty of water,not enough strategy: How inadequate accessibility,poor governance and a volatile government can tip the balance against ensuring water security: The case of Nepal

Water security is arguably the single most important factor regarding the future sustainability of our planet. Without water we have no life, and with depleting freshwater resources conflict can easily ensue. The intersection between hydrology and politics requires a delicate balancing from decision-makers to ensure policy is well-informed and science is well communicated. In this paper, we discuss water issues currently faced by Nepal, a nation where freshwater resources are abundant yet political pressures are threatening future water security. We argue that despite adequate water supplies a nation may still experience severe water insecurity, particularly if effective governance and equitable access are not prioritised. We explore potential policy options necessary to achieve a holistic framework for water resources management, which we suggest, need to consider water resource reliability, accessibility and governance as fundamental pillars for ensuring water security.     

Air quality and climate change: Designing new win-win policies for Europe

Anthropogenic activities are responsible for the emission of gaseous and particulate pollutants that modify atmospheric composition. Such changes are, in turn, responsible for the degradation of air quality at the regional/local scale as well as for changes of climate. Air pollution and climate change are two intimately connected environmental issues. However, these two environmental challenges are still viewed as separate issues, which are dealt with by different science communities and within different policy frameworks. Indeed, many mitigation options offer the possibility to both improve air quality and mitigate climate change but, at the same time, mitigation options that may provide benefits to one aspect, are worsening the situation in the other. Therefore, coordinated actions taking into account the air quality-climate linkages are required. These actions need to be based on strong scientific grounds, as recognised by the European Commission that in the past few years has promoted consultation processes among the science community, the policy makers and the relevant stakeholders. Here, the main fields in which such coordinated actions are needed are examined from a policy perspective.     

Advancing adaptive governance of social-ecological systems through theoretical multiplicity

In recent years there has been rising scientific and policy interest in the adaptive governance of social-ecological systems. A systematic literature review of adaptive governance research during the period 2005–2014, demonstrates a vibrant debate taking place that spans a variety of empirical and theoretical approaches. The particular strength of adaptive governance is that it provides a theoretical lens for research that combines the analyses of novel governance capacities such as adaptive capacity, collaboration, scaling, knowledge and learning. As a way to give greater depth and analytical rigour to future studies over the next decade and beyond, we highlight the added value of theoretical multiplicity (i.e., focusing on the combination of theories to address complex problems). We argue that theoretical multiplicity can encourage stronger synergies between adaptive governance and other theoretical approaches and can help address epistemologically grey areas in adaptive governance scholarship, such as power and politics, inclusion and equity, short term and long term change, the relationship between public policy and adaptive governance.     

Canadian prairie rural communities: their vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities to drought

Droughts can have severe negative effects on the environment, society and economy. The drought of 2001–2002 caused severe strain on economic and social activities in western Canada, particularly on rural communities through changes in water resources. This paper examines physical and social vulnerabilities and associated adaptation measures undertaken and the adaptive capacity in communities in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada. Although all of these communities were exposed to the 2001–2002 drought, they had different levels of impacts, resulting in different types of drought adaptation measures, some due to experience with previous droughts and some in response to the 2001–2002 drought. Communities with unreliable water supply were the most vulnerable to these droughts. This vulnerability resulted in historic adaptations being implemented (e.g., Hanna, Alberta) and re-active adaptations (e.g., Cabri, Saskatchewan). It is important to examine the effectiveness of the current adaptive strategies to cope with more extensive and extended drought situations. First Nation communities, such as the Kainai Blood Indian Reserve, have many social and environmental issues but the impacts from the drought were minor. The Reserve had implemented economic changes in the late 1980s to make it less vulnerable to drought but resulted in negative impacts to the Reserve’s social health. It is imperative to determine how vulnerable First Nation communities are and will to improve future adaptive capacity. This paper provides a snap shot view of how Canadian Prairie Communities have adapted to drought and how vulnerable they are to future drought situations.     

沙尘暴产生的环境管理体制根源分析及对策研究

以在内蒙古锡林郭勒盟和浑善达克沙地所做的实地调研为基础,对沙尘暴产生及治理环节中的政策和体制问题进行了探讨.分析表明,政策和体制问题才是沙尘暴问题的根源所在:以"自给自足"为核心目标的农业政策与环境政策的不协调和草地资源的公共产权是造成草地退化的诱因,在沙尘暴的治理中存在的责任机制不当、生态建设投资机制不当、草原建设管理缺位以及草原生态环境监管低效等政策和体制中存在的缺陷是沙尘暴无法得到有效控制的根本阻力.提出首先要通过协调农业和环保政策、实施可持续贸易,从源头上减少对资源的需求,从而预防沙尘暴的产生;其次要重点从明确职责和加强基层环保力量入手,提升沙尘暴的治理能力.     

Fisheries management: integrating societal preference, decision analysis, and ecological risk assessment

Fisheries management is the practice of analyzing and selecting options to maintain or alter the structure, dynamics, and interaction of habitat, aquatic biota, and man to achieve human goals and objectives. The theory of fisheries management is: managers or decision makers attempt to maximize renewable `output' from an aquatic resource by choosing from among a set of decision options and applying a set of actions that generate an array of outputs. Outputs may be defined as a tangible catch, a fishing experience, an existence value, or anything else produced or supported by renewable aquatic resources. Overall output is always a mix of tangible and intangible elements. However defined, management goals and objectives are essential components of fisheries management or any other field of renewable natural resource management. Reaching consensus on management goals and objectives has never been a simple task. Beyond the broad and often conflicting goals of an agency, managers must decide who should set specific management objectives — agency personnel, the public, or a combination of the two. Historically, rhetoric aside, fisheries managers in North America nearly always have consulted with professionals in governmental roles to set management objectives. In a strongly pluralistic society, this often resulted in protracted political and legal conflict. Increasingly, there are calls for use of risk assessment to help solve such ecological policy and management problems commonly encountered in fisheries management. The basic concepts of ecological risk assessment may be simple, but the jargon and details are not. Risk assessment (and similar analytical tools) is a concept that has evoked strong reactions whenever it has been used. In spite of the difficulties of defining problems and setting management objectives for complex ecological policy questions, use of risk assessment to help solve ecological problems is widely supported. Ecological risk assessment will be most useful (and objective) in political deliberations when the policy debate revolves around largely technical concerns. To the extent that risk assessment forces policy debate and disagreement toward fundamental differences rather than superficial ones, it will be useful in decision making.     

Effective risk governance for environmental policy making: A knowledge management perspective

Effective risk management within environmental policy making requires knowledge on natural, economic and social systems to be integrated; knowledge characterised by complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity. We describe a case study in a (UK) central government department exploring how risk governance supports and hinders this challenging integration of knowledge. Forty-five semi-structured interviews were completed over a two year period. We found that lateral knowledge transfer between teams working on different policy areas was widely viewed as a key source of knowledge. However, the process of lateral knowledge transfer was predominantly informal and unsupported by risk governance structures. We argue this made decision quality vulnerable to a loss of knowledge through staff turnover, and time and resource pressures. Our conclusion is that the predominant form of risk governance framework, with its focus on centralised decision-making and vertical knowledge transfer is insufficient to support risk-based, environmental policy making. We discuss how risk governance can better support environmental policy makers through systematic knowledge management practices.     

Renaturing cities using a regionally-focused biodiversity-led multifunctional benefits approach to urban green infrastructure

If a ‘Renaturing of Cities’ strategy is to maximise the ecosystem service provision of urban green infrastructure (UGI), then detailed consideration of a habitat services, biodiversity-led approach and multifunctionality are necessary rather than relying on the assumed benefits of UGI per se. The paper presents preliminary data from three case studies, two in England and one in Germany, that explore how multifunctionality can be achieved, the stakeholders required, the usefulness of an experimental approach for demonstrating transformation, and how this can be fed back into policy. We argue that incorporating locally contextualised biodiversity-led UGI design into the planning and policy spheres contributes to the functioning and resilience of the city and provides the adaptability to respond to locally contextualised challenges, such as overheating, flooding, air pollution, health and wellbeing as well as biodiversity loss. Framing our research to encompass both the science of biodiversity-led UGI and co-developing methods for incorporating a strategic approach to implementation of biodiversity-led UGI by planners and developers addresses a gap in current knowledge and begins to address barriers to UGI implementation. By combining scientific with policy learning and defined urban environmental targets with community needs, our research to date has begun to demonstrate how nature-based solutions to building resilience and adaptive governance can be strategically incorporated within cities through UGI.     

西部地区农业水资源的支撑能力研究

本文运用计量经济模型估算水资源对西部地区农业经济增长的贡献,揭示了在西部地区农村发展中农业水资源的支撑能力。研究指出以政府、社区和农户等利益相关者为主体,运用行政、工程、技术、经济手段,实行农业水资源的综合管理,充分发挥政府主导、市场机制调控、社区和农户参与的作用,能够有效实现西部农业水资源的可持续利用。     

Approaches to developing risk management objectives: an analysis of international strategies

Risk assessment/management frameworks employed around the world to guide environmental decision-making were analyzed for their approaches to developing risk management objectives and the decision criteria necessary for environmental policy implementation. Frameworks from the Netherlands, the UK, Sweden, Australia/New Zealand, Canada, and the USA were considered. Progress in refining the scientific basis for risk assessment/management has been made, but there has been little parallel development in defining the mechanisms by which available scientific information may be used to define risk management goals or identify and select between management options using a priori decision criteria. The lack of detailed guidance on the setting and achievement of risk management goals that appropriately balance technical information and public input remains an important challenge to the use and practice of all risk assessment/management frameworks.     

National laws and policies can enable or confound adaptive governance: Examples from South African national parks

There is growing appreciation that protected areas, like all social-ecological systems (SES), are inherently complex and face an unpredictable future under the influence of global environmental change. Adaptive management is the accepted approach for managing complex SES to ensure their resilience, but unless it is supported by a governance system that is itself adaptive it has little chance of success. Scholars have identified certain principles conducive to adaptive governance. Environmental legislation, an important component of the governance system, is often misaligned with these principles. In this paper we assess adaptive governance principles with regard to legislation governing South Africa’s national parks. This assessment indicates that, to enable adaptive governance and adaptive management, legislation should (1) be co-produced by policy-makers, policy implementers and users of protected area ecosystem services; (2) commit and empower management agencies to apply the principles of adaptive governance and adaptive management, particularly in the collaborative development of management plans; (3) commit agencies to review management plans and allow flexibility to adapt plans; (4) ensure that the temporal and spatial scales of the governance system match those of the SES being managed; (5) anticipate change and avoid assumptions of system stability and predictability; and (6) provide for flexible financing mechanisms, so that funds can be prioritised and timed to meet the unpredictable demands of complex systems.     

基于“情境—结构—行为—结果”分析的上海市低效工业用地减量化治理

探索低效工业用地减量化治理对优化土地资源利用格局、促进产业升级和城市高质量发展具有重要意义。在分析低效工业用地治理复杂系统特征的基础上,建构“情境—结构—行为—结果”分析框架,以超大城市上海市为例,采用扎根分析方法,揭示减量化过程和运行机理。结果显示：（1）低效工业用地减量化具有规划限制性、公共利益性和乡村嵌入性特征,由外部环境、用地效益、主体角色和减量化治理共同构成“外缘—内核”式的复杂适应系统。（2）建设用地“天花板”刚性约束下的宏观资源—环境—发展压力与微观用地效益是减量化的外部情境;内源性主体治理能力不足与外源性主体基于公共利益主动介入共同构成基于价值共享的治理结构;刚性政策、激励政策和支持政策形成了“三元互补”系统推动了集体行动;结果则呈现出城市高质量发展与资源再配置的协调,而平衡生态保护与经济发展、解决减量化短期压力将成为持续开展减量化的重点与难点。研究结果可为长三角其他城市开展低效工业用地治理提供经验和案例的借鉴。     

Misdefining “climate change”: consequences for science and action

The restricted definition of “climate change” used by the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) has profoundly affected the science, politics, and policy processes associated with the international response to the climate issue. Specifically, the FCCC definition has contributed to the gridlock and ineffectiveness of the global response to the challenge of climate change. This paper argues that the consequences of misdefining “climate change” create a bias against adaptation policies and set the stage for the politicization of climate science. The paper discusses options for bringing science, policy and politics in line with a more appropriate definition of climate change such as the more comprehensive perspective used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

Perspectives on capacity building to guide policy and program development and delivery

This paper examines the perspectives of major interest groups on capacity development within the context of the significant contemporary global phenomenon of community-based decentralised governance at catchment scale. It focuses on providing empirical evidence to guide the development and implementation of policies and programs, especially those of governments. The research draws especially from regional governance experiences in Australia, as a country with advanced arrangements, and capacity building experiences in the sectors of health and risk and emergency management as informative arenas of learning. Twenty-two specific capacity building measures were presented in a discussion paper across human, social, institutional and economic dimensions. Perspectives were sought from regional, policy/research and Indigenous interest groups about applying these measures to enhance the effectiveness of the community-based Boards governing Australia's nation-wide network of 56 natural resource management (NRM) organisations. The research identifies a suite of specific measures and, in doing so, demonstrates the benefits of examining other sectors to inform capacity building in the NRM domain. The work highlights the need to better understand and account for differing interest group perspectives about capacity building issues, the application of specific measures, and the outcomes anticipated before developing and implementing policies and programs. While explored in the Australian context, these findings have application to decentralised governance arrangements in other countries.     

国际环境执政理论研究进展透视

要想真正改善中国的环境条件,需要中国领导人和整个社会齐心合作,加强环境执政.在欧洲、日本和美国,环境执政手段正在发生变化.20世纪六七十年代起,国家政府开始积极致力于环境保护工作,是政策形成的初期阶段,而环境执政的主要特点是命令与控制的环境法规规范.这些法规一般技术性很强,关注特定污染物;虽然其过去在改善西方环境条件方面作出了重要贡献,人们还是日益认识到这种方式的局限性.因此,现在已开始采纳新的环境执政模式,其特点是多方利益相关者参与、决策过程更透明,重点从处理已发生的污染问题,向源头控制和更具预防性质的计划方式转变,也越来越重视以人类健康和生态系统的保护为目标的途径,而不再是简单减少某种污染物的排放水平.政府的成功取决于政府强化环境执政的种种步骤.