The future of global warming: will it be emissions control or environmental damages?

This paper explores the role of risk perceptions in influencing public policy related to global warming. It solves for the optimal paths for emissions, abatement and investment in pollution-eliminating research by incorporating perceived risks into public decision making. It also compares the impact of differential risk perceptions on international collaboration on carbon abatement. Key findings are that the perception of risks related to environmental damages and technological breakthroughs plays an important role in determining the level of mitigation efforts. A high level of perceived risk of environmental damages discourages investment in pollution-eliminating research as there are few benefits from eliminating pollution after damages are realized. Other options that allow for sequestering carbon from the atmosphere may still remain viable. Another key finding is that when it comes to effort sharing between nations, differential mitigation efforts are primarily caused due to the differences in abatement technology, benefits from emissions and research capabilities. However, such differences could be accentuated or mitigated depending upon the differences in risk perception of developed and developing countries.     

Technology-side carbon abatement cost curves for China’s power generation sector

China is among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO₂), worldwide Thus, its emissions mitigation is of global concern. The power generation sector is responsible for nearly half of China’s total CO₂ emissions and plays a key role in emissions mitigation. This study is an integrated evaluation of abatement technologies, including both low-carbon power generation technologies and retrofitting options for coal power plants. We draw marginal abatement cost curves for these technologies using the conservation supply curve method. Using scenario analysis for the years 2015 to 2030, we discuss the potential performance of abatement technologies. Marginal costs for the analyzed abatement technologies range from RMB ? 357.41/ton CO₂ to RMB 927.95/ton CO₂. Furthermore, their cumulative mitigation potential relative to the baseline scenario could reach 35 billion tons of CO₂ in 2015–2030, with low-carbon power generation technologies and coal power abatement technologies contributing 55% and 45% of the total mitigation, respectively. Our case study of China demonstrates the power generation sector’s great potential to mitigate global emissions, and we suggest nuclear power, hydropower, and the comprehensive retrofitting of coal power as key technology options for the low-carbon transition of the energy system and long-term emissions mitigation strategies.

     

中国省际碳排放差异与碳减排目标实现——基于碳洛伦兹曲线的分析

通过1997—2009年中国各省份的能源消耗实物量来估算其CO2排放量,并运用收入不平等的度量工具——洛伦兹曲线、序列和基尼系数等来分析中国省际CO2排放差异,进而探讨跨省CO2排放均等化及中国减排目标的实现问题,以期为CO2减排政策制定和普通民众展示一种更直观、更易于接受的分析方法.研究发现,从1997年到2009年,有别于中国地区经济发展不平衡的状况,中国省际CO2排放基尼系数并未超过0.30,从1997年的0.273降为2009年的0.254,近几年基本保持在0.250左右,差异较小且趋于收敛;按照2009年价格计算,中国碳排放强度基本呈下降趋势,从1997年的2.12t.万元-1降为2009年的1.685t.万元-1;基于这些趋势,即使维持现状不变,中国政府的CO2减排承诺也基本可以兑现.     

Scale and benefit of global carbon markets under the 2 °C goal: integrated modeling and an effort-sharing platform

Global climate change mitigation needs all countries’ efforts under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s guideline of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. The medium-to-long term regional emissions pathways simulated by integrated assessment models with global mitigation costs minimized to achieve the 2 °C goal might be very different from the regional emissions allowances allocated based on effort-sharing principles. Global carbon trading is a cost-effective mechanism to bridge the gap. Insight of previous papers has mainly focused on the impact of a single effort-sharing scheme on global carbon market, while this study attempts to explore the scale and benefit of global carbon market under different effort-sharing principles to achieve the 2 °C goal, with the application of a consistent modeling framework, consisting of an integrated assessment model and an effort-sharing platform. The results indicate that scale of global carbon market would be highly related with the effort-sharing principles. The global trading volumes would change from 1.8 Gigatons (Gt) carbon dioxide (CO₂) to over 12 GtCO₂ per year and largely peak between 2030 and 2040 under different kinds of effort-sharing principles. Correspondingly, annual global finance flows in the carbon market would increase gradually and reach the scale of hundreds of billions United States (US) dollars since 2020. Global carbon market would lower the abatement costs of developed countries, and the overall global abatement costs would drop by 0.4–2.6% during 2011–2050. The developing countries would not only acquire revenues from global carbon trading but also be provided with an opportunity to accelerate their domestic low-carbon energy transformation, local environmental improvement, job creation, and economic development. Linking national and regional carbon markets to develop global carbon market will be critical to maximize the utility of the market mechanism.     

Decision Criteria,Scientific Uncertainty,and the Globalwarming Controversy

This paper applies several well-known decision criteria to the climate change problem. The policy process is represented by a simple game against nature with two possible choices: abate or no action. The outcome is considered a compound lottery, with one representing emissions and another representing damages. Assuming that costs exceed benefits of abatement for the participant, the paper analyzes how different decision criteria affect the decision to abate. The role of expert opinion and quality of information in climate change decisions are also considered. The complexity of global warming makes it impossible to completely overlook the consequences of alternative choices. The paper discusses the question of whether the use of less information demanding alternatives to expected utility theory is indicated. It concludes that the choice of criterion is a political question, and that those in favor of abatement policies might be using one of the alternatives as basis for their advice, and suggests that if the possibility of making irreversible mistakes is of great concern, then the minimax regret criterion might have increased relevance.     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agreeing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as "equitable". Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

自驾游客对低碳旅游交通的意愿及其影响因素研究——以浙江舟山普陀金三角旅游区为例

运用问卷调查法和多分类Logistic回归模型,以舟山普陀金三角旅游区为案例地,对自驾游客对低碳旅游交通的意愿及其影响因素进行了研究.结果表明:在支持低碳旅游交通的939位自驾受访游客中,有25.77%的受访游客愿意选择旅游交通碳减排方式一(长途汽车),有35.46%的受访游客愿意选择旅游交通碳减排方式二(火车),有38.77%的受访游客愿意选择旅游交通碳补偿方式(交纳碳排放增量税用于植树造林).自驾游客旅游交通碳减少(碳减排和碳补偿)效果显著.各客源地用全部游客衡量,游客旅游交通的人均碳减少量处于12.548~28.516kg·人-1之间,短途客源地和中途客源地游客旅游交通的碳减少效果分别超过了50%和20%.客源地、学历、停留时间和收入对自驾游客选择旅游交通碳减排方式与选择旅游交通碳补偿方式具有显著影响.其中,个人年收入在10万元以上的自驾游客更愿意选择碳补偿方式.     

Linking the EU emissions trading scheme: economic implications of allowance allocation and global carbon constraints

We investigate the role of domestic allowance allocation and global emissions constraints for the carbon-market impacts of linking the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) internationally. Employing a quantitative simulation model of the global carbon market, we find that the economic benefits from connecting the European ETS to emerging non-EU schemes strongly depend on the regional allowance allocation of the linking participants: In a world of moderate carbon constraints, an economically efficient regional allowance allocation induces a much stronger fall in total compliance costs than a sub-optimal (i.e. too high) domestic allocation of emissions permits. However, a more efficient (i.e. stricter) allocation shifts abatement efforts and compliance costs to energy-intensive industries which are covered by the domestic ETS. We further find that committing to ambitious global emissions reduction targets (compatible with stabilizing CO₂ concentrations at 450 ppm) induces much stronger regional abatement efforts and substantially higher compliance costs for the abating regions. In such an ambitious climate policy regime, an efficient domestic allocation of allowances is even more important from an economic perspective: Here, linking emissions trading schemes diminishes the associated compliance costs on the largest scale.

CO2捕集与封存研究进展及其在我国的发展前景

碳捕集与封存(CCS)技术已被广泛地认为是一种潜力巨大、可供选择的CO2减排手段。据预测,其减排贡献将从2020年占总减排量的3%上升至2030年的10%,并在2050年将达到20%左右,成为CO2减排份额最大的单项技术。本文介绍了CCS的主要技术环节(捕集、运输、封存)、封存地类型和目前国际上开展的主要CCS示范项目及发展趋势。同时特别探讨了海底封存CO2的可行性、封存潜力以及我国在海底封存CO2方面的研究进展和发展前景。     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agree-ing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as “equitable”. Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

Linking the emissions trading schemes of Europe and China - Combining climate and energy policy instruments

Both Europe and China have announced targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable energy development. To achieve their emissions targets, Europe has introduced emissions trading scheme (ETS) since 2005 and China has planned to establish a national ETS in 2015. We assess the impact of a joint Europe-China ETS when both climate and energy policy instruments are simulated in a multiregional general equilibrium model. Our results show that a joint ETS markedly increases total carbon emissions from fossil fuels even though global mitigation costs are reduced. Moreover, a joint ETS helps China achieve its renewable energy target, but for Europe, it works opposite. While the renewable energy target does not help Europe achieve additional abatement, the renewable energy target in China reduces mitigation costs and emissions, and increases renewable energy consumption and sales of carbon allowances. Financial transfer through a joint ETS remains marginal compared to China’s demand for renewable energy subsidies. We conclude that as long as an absolute emissions cap is missing in China, a joint ETS is not attractive for mitigation and China’s renewable energy target can reduce emissions.     

The role of uncertainty in future costs of key CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> abatement technologies: a sensitivity analysis with a global computable general equilibrium model

Deep emission cuts rely on the use of low carbon technologies like renewable energy or carbon capture and storage. There is considerable uncertainty about their future costs. We carry out a sensitivity analysis based on Gauss Quadrature for cost parameters describing these technologies in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty on total and marginal mitigation costs as well as composition changes in the energy system. Globally, effects in total cost often average out, but different regions are affected quite differently from the underlying uncertainty in costs for key abatement technologies. Regions can be either affected because they are well suited to deploy a technology for geophysical reasons or because of repercussions through international energy markets. The absolute impact of uncertainty on consumption increases over the time horizon and with the ambition of emission reductions. Uncertainty in abatement costs relative to expected abatement costs are however larger under a moderate ambition climate policy scenario because in this case the marginal abatement occurs in the electricity sector where the cost uncertainty is implemented. Under more ambitious climate policy in line with the two degree target, the electricity sector is always decarbonized by 2050, hence uncertainty has less effect on the electricity mix. The findings illustrate the need for regional results as global averages can hide distributional consequences on technological uncertainty.     

基于GD_CGE模型的广东省碳排放权交易政策评估

为了评估广东省碳排放权交易制度设计对控制二氧化碳排放及经济发展可能发挥的作用,本文建立GD_CGE模型研究了在碳强度约束目标下碳交易政策的实施效果.首先分析了无减排约束和有减排约束情景下广东宏观经济(GDP)、能源消费总量和碳排放总量的发展趋势;进一步扩展减排约束情景,考察了在全省碳强度减排目标约束下,把电力、水泥、石化、钢铁、造纸、纺织六大部门纳入碳交易体系,并分别按照历史法和潜力法确定行业碳排放约束上限时,实施碳交易政策对宏观经济和能源消费量的影响,模拟了碳市场的交易情况和碳价格.结果表明:在碳强度目标控制下,实施碳交易政策可显著降低部门的减排成本,减小控制碳排放可能对全省GDP的影响,起到了促进广东省低成本节能减排的作用.     

CO2收集封存战略及其对我国远期减缓CO2排放的潜在作用

碳收集封存(CCS)已被广泛地认为是一种潜在的、可供选择的CO₂减排方案,以稳定大气中CO₂浓度、减缓气候变化.本文介绍了CCS的3大环节：碳的捕获、运输与储存,对不同捕获技术及其技术经济参数进行分析评价,介绍了不同碳地质储存的机理、潜力与成本, 以及CCS的应用对全球减缓碳排放的作用.更新中国MARKAL模型,加入各种可能的CCS技术,特别是考虑CCS的煤间接液化以及多联产技术,以同时考虑石油安全与CO₂减排.通过设置不同的情景,应用中国MARKAL模型研究了CCS对我国远期（到2050年）减缓CO₂排放的潜在作用,结果表明,CCS技术的应用不仅可能减少我国的碳排放,降低边际碳减排成本（碳减排率50%时,下降率达45%）,减轻高减排率时对核电的高度依赖,还可能使我国更长时间地清洁利用煤炭资源（在C70情景下,2050年煤在一次能源消费中的比例可从10%增到30%）.我国应重视对CCS技术的研发以及示范项目的建设.     

Marginal costs of abating greenhouse gases in the global ruminant livestock sector

Livestock [inclusive of ruminant species, namely cattle (Bos Taurus and Bos indicus), sheep (Ovis aries), goats (Capra hircus), and buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis), and non-ruminant species, namely pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) and chickens (Gallus domesticus)] are both affected by climate change and contribute as much as 14.5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, most of which is from ruminant animals (Gerber et al. 2013). This study aims to estimate the marginal costs of reducing GHG emissions for a selection of practices in the ruminant livestock sector (inclusive of the major ruminant species—cattle, sheep, and goats) globally. It advances on previous assessments by calculating marginal costs rather than commonly reported average costs of abatement and can thus provide insights about abatement responses at different carbon prices. We selected the most promising abatement options based on their effectiveness and feasibility. Improved grazing management and legume sowing are the main practices assessed in grazing systems. The urea (CO(NH₂)₂) treatment of crop straws is the main practice applied in mixed crop–livestock systems, while the feeding of dietary lipids and nitrates are confined to more intensive production systems. These practices were estimated to reduce emissions by up to 379 metric megatons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalent emissions per year (MtCO₂-eq yr^?1). Two thirds of this reduction was estimated to be possible at a carbon price of 20 US dollars per metric ton of CO₂ equivalent emissions ($20 tCO₂-eq^?1). This study also provides strategic guidance as to where abatement efforts could be most cost effectively targeted. For example, improved grazing management was particularly cost effective in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while legume sowing appeared to work best in Western Europe and Latin America.     

Mud,muddle and models in the knowledge value-chain to action on tropical peatland conservation

Tropical peatlands are known not only for their high, area-based, carbon emissions in response to land-use change but also as hot spots of debate about associated data uncertainties. Perspectives are still evolving on factors underlying the variability and uncertainty. Debate includes the ways of reducing emissions through rewetting, reforestation and agroforestry. A knowledge value-chain that is long and complex links (a) fundamental understanding of peat and peatland processes leading to sciencebased quantification and default values, (b) willingness and (c) ability to act towards emission reduction, and ultimately (d) to local, national and global actions that effectively provide rules, incentives and motivation to conserve peat and reduce emissions. We discuss this value chain, its stakeholders and issues that still remain partially unresolved. We conclude that, to shorten the denial and conspiracy-theory stages of debate that otherwise slow down steps B and C, networks of international and national scientists have to be involved at the early stage of identifying policysensitive environmental issues. Models span part of the knowledge value-chain but transition of analysis units requires specific attention, from soil volumes through area and commodity flows to opportunities for reductions. While drainage of peatlands triggers landscape-scale increases in emissions, factors beyond drainage depth, including nutrient supply, may have a major influence on decomposition rates. Attempts to disentangle the contributions of plant and peat-based respiration in surface flux measurements involve assumptions that cannot be easily verified in comparisons between land uses. With progress on A leading to new internationally accepted defaults and with resistance on step B reduced, the reality of C and lack of working solutions for D is currently constraining further progress.     

Emission trading in agriculture: a study of design options using an agent-based approach

The Scottish Government has proposed reducing Scotland’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80% by 2050, compared to the 1990 baseline level. It is not yet clear how these reductions will be achieved, but it is likely that all sectors will be expected to make some contribution. Depending on their farm activities, farmers have different sets of abatement alternatives—the challenge facing them, however, is in finding strategies that help to meet reduction targets while maintaining their income. In this paper, we use an agent-based modelling approach to study the implications of carbon trading design options aimed at reducing GHG emissions in the agricultural sector, such as auctions, fixed carbon prices, or carbon credit banking. The feasibility of carbon trading scheme options is assessed regarding their ability to ensure that farmers obtain carbon credits at an affordable and adequate price, since low prices would reward farmers not adopting on-farm abatement options and high prices would encourage non-compliance to targets, thus increasing enforcement costs. Assuming a closed market within the agricultural sector, this study shows that farmers may face up to 50% loss of income to achieve a 30% reduction target if this requires a cut in production. However, market design options such as credits banking may allow farmers to progressively adapt to the scheme constraints. At an individual level, the rate of on-farm compliance and the mandated emission reduction target will determine which farmer strategy is the most efficient to cope with a trading scheme.     

运用经济制度推进污染减排的探索

随着经济规模的不断扩大,我国污染减排的压力持续加大,在充分运用必要的行政和法律手段的同时,应注重运用污染减排的税收制度、排污权交易制度、与金融部门共享环境信息等经济制度或手段调控社会环境行为,将环境成本内部化,增加企业直接排污成本,降低企业内部治理成本,调动减排积极性,促进污染减排计划的顺利实施。     

中国石化和化工行业二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

石化和化工行业是我国经济发展的支柱性产业,但同时也是高耗能、高排放行业。平衡石化和化工行业发展与碳达峰、碳中和之间的关系,制定科学、合理的减排措施,是实现石化和化工行业低碳绿色发展的重要措施。为此,研究围绕石化和化工重点行业,利用专家型和基于模型的边际成本曲线对我国石化和化工行业的关键减排技术及减排成本进行分析。研究结果显示,我国石化和化工行业平均减排成本为298元/tCO₂,2035年累积碳减排量为4.4亿t,约占行业碳排放总量的30%。与节能减排措施相比,能源替代手段具有较高的减排成本,但也同时具有较高的减排潜力。2035年,能源替代的减排潜力占到总减排潜力的62%。未来,应着力推动传统煤化工行业能源利用向可再生、清洁能源的转变,助推石化和化工行业碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现。     

Economic and environmental effects of unilateral climate actions

Unilateral climate policy can be detrimental to global climate protection. Our objective is to provide insight into such a policy, to quantify the risk of carbon leakage, and to investigate the effects related to potential anti-leakage measures. We analyze existing definitions of carbon leakage and propose an alternative, rigorous one, which is different in three respects. The definition is then tested using computable general equilibrium analysis of the global economy and decomposition analysis. We identify a list of parameters that affect not only the magnitude but also the sign of the carbon leakage rate. Manipulating elasticities of substitution suggests that carbon leakage can be either positive or negative. Computable general equilibrium models, which are widely applied, including by the European Commission in this area, should be transparent, and their assumptions call for careful validation. We find that emission limits are properly distributed between sectors covered by the European Union Emissions Trading System and other sectors for the first commitment period (ended in 2012) but not for the second one (ending in 2020), where the target for the non-trading sectors should be reduced relative to the target for the trading sectors in order to equlize marginal abatement costs.