Meeting emission targets under uncertainty—the case of Finnish non-emission-trading sector

The European Union (EU) has set a target to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at least 10 % below the 2005 levels by 2020 in the non-Emission Trading Sector (non-ETS). As part of this, each Member State has a binding national emission limitation target for the non-ETS sector. Finland’s target, examined as a case study in this paper, is to reduce emissions at least 16 % below 2005 levels by 2020. The objective of this study is to find cost optimal mitigation portfolios that meet Finland’s reduction target and to analyze the risks of not attaining the emission target or exceeding the assumed costs. The question was addressed with a stochastic optimization model, Stochastic Optimization of non-ETS Emissions (SONETS) selecting separate mitigation measures that meet the target on expectation. The results show that optimal portfolios include relatively high uncertainty both in costs and achieved reductions. The prices of crude oil and diesel, and the abatement cost of reducing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions seem to account for the majority of uncertainty regarding total costs. The baseline predictions for various non-ETS subsectors (such as transport and agriculture) were found to have the greatest contribution to the uncertainty of attaining emission target. The results also show that some abatement actions are chosen in nearly all efficient portfolios, while other actions are seldom chosen. For example replacing oil burners in the end of technical life time or recovery of methane (CH₄) from waste are often chosen whereas ban of landfilling of organic waste is chosen extremely seldom. It also seems that the results are somewhat sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of the interdependencies of mitigation measures.     

The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example

We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation.     

A taxonomy for regulatory uncertainty—application to the European Emission Trading Scheme

Research on environmental uncertainty typically distinguishes between different sources of uncertainty according to the different environments that a company interacts with. The regulatory environment and associated uncertainties become especially important when investigating the subject of pollution reduction. Many researchers have started to investigate the effects of environmental regulation on innovation, however, only little is known about the role of regulatory uncertainty in this context. We provide a taxonomy of regulatory uncertainties by building on the Miles and Snow scale of environmental uncertainty. We apply this taxonomy to uncertainties in current climate policy and test it based on a survey among companies that are subject to the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), a flexible mechanism of the Kyoto-Protocol. Our results show that the EU ETS creates uncertainties in all categories of our taxonomy and suggest further research to better understand how different regulatory uncertainties affect companies’ business decisions.     

Characteristics of distribution of heavy metals insediment of Le An River

ＣｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｈｅａｖｙｍｅｔａｌｓｉｎｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔｏｆＬｅＡｎＲｉｖｅｒＬｉＱｉ（ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＣｅｎｔｅｒｆｏｒＥｃｏ－ＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓ，ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃａｄｅｍｙ...     

Effects of elevated CO_2 on sensitivity of six species of algae and interspecific competition of three species of alga

Introduction The atm ospheric C O 2 concentration increases at a rate of 1.5 滋 m ol/(m ol·a) and w ill double com pared to pre-industrial levels around the year 2050 (W atson et al., 1990). Its effects and m echanism by elevated CO 2 on global clim ate,…     

Modelling of water quality of Minjiang estuary

In order to establish economic development region at Mawei districtwhich is nearby downstream of Minjiang river and to answer the question of impact of economic development on water quality of Minjiang estuary, the analyses of hydrologic and hydraulic characteristics of Mawei reach of Minjiang tidal river, a two-dimensional mathematical model has been established and simulation of water quality was studied. The results show that the flushing time of a conservative pollutant during dry and raining period are 12 and 7 days respectively from Mawei to Minjiang mouth, the decay rate constants of BOD and NH3-N are 0.1 to 0.4 and 0.18 to 0.45 d-1 respectively. The capacity of dilution and assimilation for pollutants is larger.     

Effects of elevated CO2 on sensitivity of six species of algae and interspecific competition of three species of algae

Effects of elevated CO, （5000 μl/L） on sensitivity comparison of six species of algae and interspecific competition of three species of algae were investigated. The results showed that, the cell densities of six species of algae grown in elevated CO2 significantly increased compared to those in ambient CO2 （360 μl/L）, and with the time prolonged, the increasing extent increased. Therefore, elevated CO2 can promote the growth of six species of algae. However, there were differences in sensitivity between six species of algae. Based on the effects of elevated CO2 on biomass, the sensitive order （from high to low） was Platymanas sp., Platymanas subcordiformis, Nitzschia closterium, Isochrysis golbana Parke 8701, Dunoliella salina, Chlorella sp., on the condition of solitary cultivation. Compared to ambient CO2, elevated CO2 promoted the growth of three species of algae, Platymanas subcordiformis, Nitzschia closterium and Isochrysis galbana Parke 8701 under the condition of mixed cultivation. The sensitivity of the three species to elevated CO2 in mixed cultivation changed a lot compared to the condition of solitary cultivation. When grown in elevated CO2 under the condition of mixed cultivation, the sensitive order from high to low were Nitzschia clostertium, Platymonas subcordiformis; and Isochrysis galbana Parke 8701. However, under the condition of solitary cultivation, the sensitive order in elevated CO2 was Isochrysis galbana Parke 8701, Nitzschia clostertium, Platymonas subcordiformis, from sensitive to less sensitive. On the day 21, the dominant algae, the sub-dominant algae and inferior algae grown in elevated CO2 did not change. However, the population increasing dynamic and composition proportion of three algal species have significantly changed.     

A complete set of procedure for determination of multiresidue of pesticides in vegetables

A complete set of procedure for determination of multiresidue of pesticides in vegetables was presented in this paper.The complete set of procedure included three steps:bioassay,cholinesterase inhibition and GLC analysis.The samples could be identified to be contaminated with pesticides if 5% of house flies was knocked down in 50 tested house flies. Those samples contaminated with pesticides needed to be detected by AChE inhibition method.The qualitative and quantitative analyses were carried out by GLC.Recoveries ranged from 83.7% in Chinese cabbages to 105.6% in tomatoes for pyrethroids,and 84.0% in tomatoes to 102.7% in sweetbell redpeppes for organophosphorus compounds.Coefficients of variations ranged from 0.59% to organophosphorus compounds.Coefficients of variations ranged from 0.59% to 7.87% for pyrethroids. and 0.33% to 9.88% for organophosphorus compounds with vegetables. The complete set of procedure has been used successfully to analyze 7000 samples collected in Beijing. About 1% of the samp     

Effects of allelochemicals on activity of nitrate reductase

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＰｌａｎｔｓｔｒａｗａｓａｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｍｅａｓｕｒｅｆｏｒｉｎｃｒｅａｓｉｎｇｔｈｅｆｅｒｔｉｌｉｔｙａｎｄｉｍｐｒｏｖｉｎｇｔｈｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｏｆｓｏｉｌ,ｈａｓｂｅｅｎｗｉｄｅｌｙａｐｐｌｉｅｄｉｎａｇｒｉｃｕ?..     

Photochemistry of chrysene adsorbedon several types of particle

ＰｈｏｔｏｃｈｅｍｉｓｔｒｙｏｆｃｈｒｙｓｅｎｅａｄｓｏｒｂｅｄｏｎｓｅｖｅｒａｌｔｙｐｅｓｏｆｐａｒｔｉｃｌｅＺｈｏｎｇＪｉｎｘｉａｎ；ＭａｕｌｄｉｎＲ．Ｆ．；Ｄｕｎｓｔａｎ，Ｔ．Ｄ．Ｔ，Ｓａｎｄｅｒｓ，Ｊ．Ｋ．，Ｈｉｐｐｓ，Ａ．Ｄ．，Ｗｅｈｒｙ，...     

Biodegradation of mixture of VOC''''s in a biofilter

IntroductionDeterioratingatmosphericairqualityhasresultinginmorestringentregulationsarebeingenforcedtocontrolairpollutants .Volatileorganiccompounds(VOCs)areamongthenewclassofaircontaminantsgeneratedfromavarietyofindustrialsources .Effortstocontroltheemis…     

A review of the contributions of Albert Einstein to Earth Sciences—in commemoration of the World Year of Physics

The World Year of Physics (2005) is an international celebration to commemorate the 100th anniversary of Einstein’s “Annus Mirabilis.” The United Nations has officially declared 2005 as the International Year of Physics. However, the impact of Einstein’s ideas was not restricted to physics. Among numerous other disciplines, Einstein also made significant and specific contributions to Earth Sciences. His geosciences-related letters, comments, and scientific articles are dispersed, not easily accessible, and are poorly known. The present review attempts to integrate them as a tribute to Einstein in commemoration of this centenary. These contributions can be classified into three basic areas: geodynamics, geological (planetary) catastrophism, and fluvial geomorphology. Regarding geodynamics, Einstein essentially supported Hapgood’s very controversial theory called Earth Crust Displacement. With respect to geological (planetary) catastrophism, it is shown how the ideas of Einstein about Velikovsky’s proposals evolved from 1946 to 1955. Finally, in relation to fluvial geodynamics, the review incorporates the elegant work in which Einstein explains the formation of meandering rivers. A general analysis of his contributions is also carried out from today’s perspective. Given the interdisciplinarity and implications of Einstein’s achievements to multiple fields of knowledge, we propose that the year 2005 serve, rather than to confine his universal figure within a specific scientific area, to broaden it for a better appreciation of this brilliant scientist in all of his dimensions.     

Effect of acidic deposition on productivity of forest ecosystem and estimation of its economic losses in southern suburbs of Chongqing

In accordance with principle sand methods of ecology, this paper studied the effects of acidic deposition on productivity and volume increment of masson pine and Cinnamomum campora forest which are widely distributed in southern suburbs of Chongqing. Based on the field data and measurements, a multivariable stepwise regression model was established to analyze the effects of multiple environmental factors on the productivity of the forest ecosystems. This model was used to assess the volume and economic losses of these two forest ecosystems caused by acidic deposition. The results showed that, among the environmental factors, pH value of precipitation, soil depth, soil organic contents and slope are the dominant ones influencing the growth of masson pine forest. It is also shown that the acidic deposition has no clear relation to the growth of C.Campora forest, so development of such broad-leaved forest is suitable in the area.     

Seasonal changes of endogenous ABA and cytokininsin environmental adaptation of differentecotypes of reed plants

ＳｅａｓｏｎａｌｃｈａｎｇｅｓｏｆｅｎｄｏｇｅｎｏｕｓＡＢＡａｎｄｃｙｔｏｋｉｎｉｎｓｉｎｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌａｄａｐｔａｔｉｏｎｏｆｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔｅｃｏｔｙｐｅｓｏｆｒｅｅｄｐｌａｎｔｓＷａｎｇＨｏｎｇｌｉａｎｇ，ＺｈａｎｇＣｈｅｎｇｌｉ...     

Influence of acid deposition on atmospheric corrosion of zinc

Site exposure tests both open and sheltered have been carried out in acid deposition area in Southwest China. Results from six sites show that acid deposition exerts a great influence on atmospheric corrosion of Zn, and it is more serious in wet condition. Basically, Zn corrosion is directly proportional to time of exposure. While SO2 is the main pollutant of the atmosphere environment, Zn corrosion has a linear relationship to SO2 depositing rate and a hyperbolic to rain pH value.Observations by SEM, EDAX and X-ray diffraction show that under sheltered exposure condition, the corrosion products of Zn in heavy acid deposition area principally are sulphates.Based on the corrosion rates measured, the working life of galvanized steel can be predicated.     

Determination of atmospheric concentrations of halocarbons in Beijing area

Gas chromatography with ambient temperature injection and frozen-trapped techniques was used to determine the atmospheric concentrations of halocarbons over Beijing. Halogenated compounds such as CFC-11, CFC-12, CHCl_3, CCl_4, CH_3CCl_3, CHCl =CCl_2, and CCl_2=CCl_2 were measured and their concentrations are 109±8, 234±13, 47±22, 97±24, 88±29, 11±1 and 17±3 (pptv), respectively.     

Utility of semivariogram for spatial variation of soil nutrients and the robust analysis of semivariogram

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＧｅｏｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓｈａｓｐｒｏｖｅｎｕｓｅｆｕｌｆｏｒｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｚｉｎｇａｎｄｍａｐｐｉｎｇｔｈｅｓｐａｔｉａｌｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｏｉｌｐｒｏｐｅｒｔｉｅｓ (Ｗｅｂｓｔｅｒ,1985;Ｔｒａｎｇｍａｒ,1985;Ｇｏｏｖａｅｒｔｓ ,1999) .Ｍｏｓｔｐｒｅｖｉｏｕｓｇｅｏｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌｓｔｕｄｉｅｓｆｏｃｕｓｅｄｏｎｔｈｅｄａｔａｏｆａｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｌｙｓｍａｌｌｓｐａｔｉａｌｓｃａｌｅ(Ｃｈｉｅｎ ,1997) .Ｔｈｅａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆｇｅｏｓｔａｔ…     

Prediction model of mercury accumulation in fish of reservoirs

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＨｅａｌｔｈｈａｚａｒｄｓｆｒｏｍｍｅｒｃｕｒｙｉｎｔｈｅｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔｈａｖｅｃａｕｓｅｄｒｅｓｔｒｉｃｔｉｏｎｓｉｎｔｈｅｕｓｅｏｆｍｅｒｃｕｒｙａｎｄａｓｔｒｉｃｔｅｒｃｏｎｔｒｏｌｏｆｔｈｅｒｅｌｅａｓｅｏｆｍｅｒｃｕｒｙｆｒｏｍｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｌａｎｄｏｔｈｅｒｕｓｅｓ.Ｂｕｔａｔｔｈｅｓａｍｅｔｉｍｅｔｈｅｓｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓｏｆｍｅｒｃｕｒｙｈａｖｅｂｅｅｎｓｕｂｊｅｃｔｅｄｔｏｒｅｇｕｌａｔｉｏｎ ,ｔｗｏｎｅｗｓｏｕｒｃｅｓｈａｖｅａｐｐｅａｒｅｄ …     

Appljcation of the thermal lens effectfor determination of iodide

ＡｐｐｌｊｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅｔｈｅｒｍａｌｌｅｎｓｅｆｆｅｃｔｆｏｒｄｅｔｅｒｍｉｎａｔｉｏｎｏｆｉｏｄｉｄｅＧｕＸｉａｏｍｅｉ：ＷａｎｇＳｈｕｎｒｏｎｇ；ＱｉｎＫｅｘｕａｎ；Ｌｉｊｉｅｃｈｕｎ（ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＣｅｎｔｅｒｆｏｒＥｃｏ－Ｅｎｖｉ...