Parental altruism and the value of avoiding acute illness: are kids worth more than parents?

A model describing parents’ preferences to relieve their own and their children's acute illnesses is estimated using stated-preference data. Estimated marginal rates of substitution (MRS) between child and parent illness are about two, indicating that parents value children's illness attributes twice as highly as their own. The MRS is larger for younger children, falls toward unity as the child approaches adulthood, and appears to reflect parental altruism rather than parent–child differences in initial health or illness costs. Intra-family allocations may compensate for chronic health impairments. Parents’ willingness to pay to avoid own or child illness increases with income, declines with fertility, increases at a decreasing rate with duration and number of symptoms, and depends on perceived discomfort and activity restrictions. Current methods of assessing morbidity benefits of environmental regulations may understate substantially the value of children's health, particularly in African-American families.     

Valuing nonfatal health risk as a function of illness severity and duration: Benefit transfer using QALYs

We estimate willingness to pay for small reductions in the risk of suffering nonfatal health conditions using a stated-preference survey fielded to an internet panel that is representative of the adult US population. Health conditions are described using a generic health utility system (EQ-5D). Estimated WTP is proportional to the stated reduction in probability of illness and independent of small differences in baseline risk, consistent with conventional economic theory, and is an increasing but highly concave function of the severity and duration of the illness. WTP to reduce nonfatal health risks can be estimated as a function of the severity and duration of the effect, but the relationship is not linear as assumed by the common practice of multiplying the expected QALY gain by a constant monetary value per QALY. WTP to reduce risk to another person in the household is significantly larger than to reduce risk to oneself, approximately 150 percent larger for an adult and 200 percent larger for a child.     

Ambiguity,reasoned determination,and climate-change policy

This paper examines climate-change benefit-cost analysis in the presence of scientific uncertainty in the form of ambiguity. The specific issue addressed is the robustness of benefit-cost analyses of climate-change policy alternatives to relaxation of Savage's original axioms. Two alternatives to subjective expected utility (SEU) are considered: maximin expected utility (MEU) and incomplete expected utility (IEU). Among other results, it is demonstrated that polar opposite recommendations can emerge in an ambiguous decision setting even if all agree on Society's rate of time preference, Society's risk attitudes, the degree of ambiguity faced, and the scientific primitives. We show that, for a simple numerical simulation of our model, an MEU decision maker favors policies which immediately tackle climate change while an IEU decision prefers “business as usual”.“Each agency shall assess the costs and benefits of the intended regulation, and recognizing that some costs and benefits are difficult to quantify, propose or adopt a regulation only upon a reasoned determination that the benefits of the intended regulation justify its cost.” Executive Order 12866 of the US President.     

Demand for environmental policies to improve health: Evaluating community-level policy scenarios

Using a national survey and a discrete choice experiment format, we estimate demand for environmental polices to improve health. We use a richly detailed community-level approach that describes illnesses avoided, premature deaths avoided, policy duration, and the affected population size. We allow preferences for policy attributes to vary systematically with the scenario design, with the source of risk and type of health threat, and with respondent characteristics. Using a willingness to pay (WTP) framework similar to that used for studies of individual risk, we find that omission of illness information leads to an upward bias in estimates of the value of avoided premature deaths and that individuals view avoided deaths and avoided illnesses as substitutes. We also find evidence of strongly diminishing marginal utility in policy scope. Differences in marginal WTP from different sources of risk or types of illness appear very small relative to differences associated with respondent characteristics and/or perceptions. Self-interest strongly dominates altruistic considerations.     

A sceptical vision of the environmental Kuznets curve: The case of sulfur dioxide

The aim of this paper is to check the hypothesis for the environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur dioxide. This involved analysis of: 1. the theoretical basis of the model; 2. the technical problem of SO2 generation; 3 the kind of information used in the estimations; 4. changes in the structure of electric energy production; 5. improvements in energy efficiency; and 6. the recent introduction of cleaning mechanisms in a favourable political context. The conclusion is that, if it is possible to prove the existence of environmental Kuznets curve models, their utility as instruments of economic policy is debatable.     

Altruism and environmental risks to health of parents and their children

This paper tests an equilibrium condition from a model that incorporates: (1) altruism of parents toward their young children, and (2) household production of latent health risks. The model demonstrates that an altruistic parent's marginal rate of substitution between an environmental health risk to herself and to her child is equal to the ratio of marginal risk reduction costs. Econometric estimates support this prediction based on data from a stated preference survey involving 488 parents of children aged 3–12 years. This outcome implies that parents reallocate family resources to at least partly offset the effectiveness of public programs that aim to reduce their children's environmental risks.     

Valuing nature in a general equilibrium

We explore the consequences of modeling the demand for environmental quality improvements as a fully integrated part of a general equilibrium demand system in an applied general equilibrium (or CGE) analysis. Demand for non-market goods depends on a full range of relative prices as well as environmental outcomes. We simulate the effects of reducing two air pollutants to improve human health and three ecosystem services provided to households. The ecosystem services make non-separable contributions to household utility. We find that willingness to pay measures of use-based ecosystem services are impacted by changes in demand for complementary market goods. Demand for these goods shifts due to pollution reductions that enhance ecosystem services. Partial equilibrium estimates of these use values can be measured with substantial error if they fail to account for the general equilibrium adjustments caused by pollution. Over 300 calibrations of the model identify the model features important to these errors. We find that effects on ecosystem services associated with non-use values have important implications for the feedback effects on use related measures of economic tradeoffs. This is due to how our model integrates market and non-market effects, reflecting the non-market services importance to general equilibrium market outcomes.     

Fracking and indoor radon: Spurious correlation or cause for concern?

Unconventional gas development (fracking) is controversial in large part because of environmental and health concerns. We consider the concern that fracking leads to more carcinogenic radon gas in nearby buildings. Our empirical approach estimates treatment effects where treatment is continuous (number of wells) and varies in intensity (distance to the wells) and in duration of exposure (the time since wells were drilled). The approach allows any potential effect of fracking to vary non-linearly with the distance between the well and test site and, holding distance constant, the time between drilling and testing. Our main model gives a precisely estimated zero effect of wells on radon concentrations in nearby buildings. It also reveals that energy firms drilled wells in places with higher pre-existing radon levels, which, if ignored, makes it appear that wells within 2 km increase indoor radon but wells 3 km away do not. This explains the finding of a prior study showing a link between drilling and indoor radon.     

An assessment of the potential health benefits of realizing the goals for PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> in the updated Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard

As a response to the severe air quality problems in China, the Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2012 issued an updated Ambient Air Quality Standard (GB3095-2012), which set a stricter grade II PM₁₀ standard. A successful implementation of this standard will have an impact on human health through reduction of exposure to air pollution in the population. Using the methods of adjusted human capital and value of statistical life, the authors in this article estimate the economic impact of a successful implementation of the updated Ambient Air Quality Standard on human health in China. The key results are: 1) The human health benefits from reaching the updated standard for PM₁₀ would equal CNY 51.1 billion using adjusted human capital, accounting for 18.5% of total human health costs in China, and CNY 83.5 billion using the value of a statistical life; 2) the benefit of reaching the updated standard for PM₁₀ is highest in the east coastal areas and gradually declines for more Western provinces; and 3) the marginal benefit of public health increases as the environmental quality standard PM₁₀ improves. If the annual concentration of PM₁₀ were to be reduced from the target number in the original grade II standard to that in the updated standard, the mortality rate of long-term exposure would be reduced by 6.5% due to reduced chronic exposure. In addition, if the annual concentration were to be reduced further from updated grade II to grade I standard, the mortality rate for long-term exposure would be lowered by 32.8%.     

The value of information for integrated assessment models of climate change

We estimate the value of information (VOI) for three key parameters of climate integrated assessment models (IAMs): marginal damages at low temperature anomalies, marginal damages at high temperature anomalies, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Most empirical studies of climate damages have examined temperature anomalies up to 3 °C, while some recent theoretical studies emphasize the risks of “climate catastrophes,” which depend on climate sensitivity and on marginal damages at higher temperature anomalies. We use a new IAM to estimate the VOI for each parameter over a range of assumed levels of study precision based on prior probability distributions calibrated using results from previous studies. We measure the VOI as the maximum fixed fraction of consumption that a social planner would be willing to pay to conduct a new study before setting a carbon tax. Our central results suggest that the VOI is greatest for marginal damages at high temperature anomalies.     

Effect of decision rules in choice experiments on hunting and bushmeat trade

Providing insight on decisions to hunt and trade bushmeat can facilitate improved management interventions that typically include enforcement, alternative employment, and donation of livestock. Conservation interventions to regulate bushmeat hunting and trade have hitherto been based on assumptions of utility- (i.e., personal benefits) maximizing behavior, which influences the types of incentives designed. However, if individuals instead strive to minimize regret, interventions may be misguided. We tested support for 3 hypotheses regarding decision rules through a choice experiment in Tanzania. We estimated models based on the assumptions of random utility maximization (RUM) and pure random regret maximization (P-RRM) and combinations thereof. One of these models had an attribute-specific decision rule and another had a class-specific decision rule. The RUM model outperformed the P-RRM model, but the attribute-specific model performed better. Allowing respondents with different decision rules and preference heterogeneity within each decision rule in a class-specific model performed best, revealing that 55% of the sample used a P-RRM decision rule. Individuals using a P-RRM decision rule responded less to enforcement, salary, and livestock donation than did individuals using the RUM decision rule. Hence, 3 common strategies, enforcement, alternative income-generating activities, and providing livestock as a substitute protein, are likely less effective in changing the behavior of more than half of respondents. Only salary elicited a large (i.e. elastic) response, and only for one RUM class. Policies to regulate the bushmeat trade based solely on the assumption of individuals maximizing utility, may fail for a significant proportion of the sample. Despite the superior performance of models that allow both RUM and P-RRM decision rules there are drawbacks that must be considered before use in the Global South, where very little is known about the social–psychology of decision making.     

Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.     

Green clubs

This paper treats programs in which firms voluntarily agree to meet environmental standards as “green clubs”: clubs, because they provide non-rival but excludable reputation benefits to participating firms; green, because they also generate environmental public goods. The model illuminates a central tension between the congestion externality familiar from conventional club theory and the free-riding externality familiar from the theory on private provision of public goods. We compare three common program sponsors—governments, industry, and environmental groups. We find that if monitoring of the club standard is perfect, a government constrained from regulating club size may prefer to leave sponsorship to industry if public-good benefits are sufficiently low, or to environmentalists if public-good benefits are sufficiently high. If monitoring is imperfect, an important question is whether consumers can infer that a club is too large for its standard to be credible. If they can then the government may deliberately choose an imperfect monitoring mechanism as a way of regulating club size indirectly. If they cannot then this reinforces the government's preference for delegating sponsorship.     

Green clubs

This paper treats programs in which firms voluntarily agree to meet environmental standards as “green clubs”: clubs, because they provide non-rival but excludable reputation benefits to participating firms; green, because they also generate environmental public goods. The model illuminates a central tension between the congestion externality familiar from conventional club theory and the free-riding externality familiar from the theory on private provision of public goods. We compare three common program sponsors—governments, industry, and environmental groups. We find that if monitoring of the club standard is perfect, a government constrained from regulating club size may prefer to leave sponsorship to industry if public-good benefits are sufficiently low, or to environmentalists if public-good benefits are sufficiently high. If monitoring is imperfect, an important question is whether consumers can infer that a club is too large for its standard to be credible. If they can then the government may deliberately choose an imperfect monitoring mechanism as a way of regulating club size indirectly. If they cannot then this reinforces the government's preference for delegating sponsorship.     

中国典型土壤中铅的生物可给性的影响因素分析与健康风险评估

土壤铅污染及其危害备受关注。作为评估其对人体健康风险的科学指标之一,土壤铅的生物可给性的影响因素仍不甚明确。采集中国5种典型土壤(红壤、褐土、黑土、棕壤和黄壤),根据国标中一类建设用地的管制值制备成800 mg·kg^-1的铅污染土壤样品,利用先进的基于生理学的体外试验方法(改进的PBET模型)研究经口部摄入的土壤铅的生物可给性及其对人体的健康风险,进而从土壤理化性质和铅的赋存形态角度,全面综合地探讨土壤铅的生物可给性的影响因素,并分析不同土壤间差异的原因。结果表明,土壤铅在胃阶段的生物可给性为72.7%—82.6%,各类型土壤间差异极显著,其中红壤较高而黑土较低;进入小肠阶段后,土壤铅的生物可给性极显著降低至22.8%—27.7%,各类型土壤间无显著差异。土壤铅对人体的健康风险评估结果与之相同。对儿童而言,土壤铅在胃阶段的非致癌风险达到可接受限值的2.1倍;且整体而言,土壤铅对儿童的非致癌风险平均达到成人的7.6倍,必须加以重视。此外,土壤铅的生物可给性与土壤pH、有机质质量分数和迁移系数均存在高度显著相关性,其中,土壤pH是影响土壤铅在胃肠道的生物可给性的主导因子。通过体外试验可直接、简便而准确地获取土壤铅的生物可给性信息,建议在今后实地的污染土壤健康风险评估工作中引入该方法。该研究成果将为铅污染土壤健康风险评估工作提供准确的科学依据与有价值的参考。     

Risk taking during parental care: a test of three hypotheses applied to the pied flycatcher

According to life-history theory, there will often be a conflict between investment in current versus future reproduction. If a predator appears during breeding, parents must make a compromise between ensuring the growth and survival of offspring (nest defence, feeding and brooding of young), and reducing the risk of predation to ensure their own survival. We model three hypotheses for the outcome of this conflict which are particularly relevant for altricial birds. They are not mutually exclusive, but focus on different costs and benefits. (1) Parental investment is determined by the parents’ own risk of predation. This hypothesis predicts that a lone parent should take smaller risks than a parent that has a mate. (2) Parental investment is related to the reproductive value of the offspring: Parents are predicted to take greater risks for larger broods, larger-sized or older offspring. (3) Finally, we present the new hypothesis that parental investment is related to the harm that offspring would suffer during a period of no parental care (incubation, brooding, feeding). This hypothesis predicts that parents should take greater risks for younger offspring, or for offspring in poorer condition, because the marginal benefit of parental care is largest in such cases. Hence, one may also expect that lone parents should take greater risks than two parents because their offspring are more in need of care. We tested these hypotheses on the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) by presenting a stuffed predator of the parents (a sparrowhawk, Accipiter nisus) close to the nest when parents were feeding the young. Risk taking was measured as the time that elapsed until the first visit to the nest. Most support was found for the ‘‘harm to offspring’’ hypothesis. Previous studies have usually measured the intensity of nest defence against typical nest predators, and have found evidence for the ‘‘reproductive value of offspring’’ hypothesis. However, our model predicts that the importance of the reproductive value of the offspring should decrease relative to the harm that offspring would suffer if they were not cared for when the predator type changes from a nest predator to a predator of adults, and when conditions for breeding turn from good to bad. Received: 13 April 1995/Accepted after revision: 11 March 1996     

Redistribution and pollution taxes with non-linear Engel curves

This paper analyses optimal corrective taxation and optimal income redistribution. The Pigouvian pollution tax is higher if pollution damages disproportionally hurt the poor due to equity weighting of pollution damages. Moreover, under general utility functions, optimal pollution taxes should be set below the Pigouvian tax if the poor spend a disproportionate fraction of their income on polluting goods. However, if Engel curves are linear, optimal pollution taxes should follow the first-best rule for the Pigouvian corrective tax even if the government wants to redistribute income and the poor spend a disproportional part of their income on polluting goods. The often-used quasi-linear, CES and Stone-Geary utility functions all have linear Engel curves. If Engel curves are linear, and if pollution taxes are not optimised, Pareto-improving green tax reforms exist that move the pollution tax closer to the Pigouvian tax. Simulations demonstrate that optimal corrective taxes should be Pigouvian if the demand for polluting goods is derived from a LES demand system, but deviate from the Pigouvian taxes if demand for polluting goods demand is derived from a PIGLOG demand system.     

旱地赤红壤钾素的Q/I特性

对12种旱地赤红壤与1种参比水稻土的钾素Q/I特性进行比较，结果表明，旱地由于土壤粘粒少，有机质质量分数低等因素的影响，其易释放钾库及供钾能力均小，钾位的缓冲性能很差，阳离子交换量较低；如不施钾肥或施肥不当，会造成作物减产或钾素损失。而由不同母质发育的旱地赤红壤，Q/I特性差别不大。     

Statistical models of health risk due to microbial contamination of foods

Between 6 million and 33 million cases of food-related illness are estimated to occur in the United States each year, with about 5000 episodes resulting in death. Growing concerns about the safety of food prompted the National Food Safety Initiative of 1997, the goal of which is to reduce the incidence of illness caused by food-borne pathogens. A key component of the food safety initiative is the improvement of farm-to-table risk assessment capabilities, including the development of improved dose-response models for estimating risk. When sufficient data are available, allowable contamination levels of specific micro-organisms in food are established using dose-response models to predict risk at very low doses based on experimental data at much higher doses. This necessitates having reliable models for setting allowable exposures to food-borne pathogens. While only limited data on relatively few micro-organisms that occur in food are available at present for dose-response modeling and risk estimation, still none of the two-parameter models proposed so far, including the popular Beta-Poisson (BP) model, appears to be completely satisfactory for describing and fitting all of the present data (Holcomb et al., 1999). The Weibull–Gamma (WG) model is the only three-parameter model that has been proposed to date. In this paper, new competitive three-parameter models are derived, using a formulation that can be parameterized to represent statistical variation with respect to the dose of micro-organism received by the host and the hosts susceptibility to infection. Parameters of the models are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. Experimental data on several common microbial contaminants in food are used to illustrate the methodology.     

Using Changes in Agricultural Utility to Quantify Future Climate‐Induced Risk to Conservation

Much of the biodiversity‐related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop‐climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near‐term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. Uso de Cambios en la Utilidad Agrícola para Cuantificar Riesgos Futuros para la Conservación Inducidos por el Clima