首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
Changes of streamflow reflect combined effects of climate, soil and vegetation in the basin scale. This study was conducted to investigate the response of streamflow to the climate changes/variability in different scales of the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The spatial distribution and temporal trends were explored for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PE) during 1961-2000 to illustrate climate change/variability and impacts of climate change/variability on streamflow were explained by investigating the relationship of precipitation, PE and streamflow in the YRB. The results presented that: (i) precipitation and PE exhibited different spatial distribution patterns and temporal trends in different regions, and most stations showed negative trends for precipitation in the basin; (ii) the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE showed high nonlinearity, and the magnitudes and patterns of streamflow response to precipitation and PE displayed different patterns varied with the dry conditions in different region or years; and (iii) the precipitation elasticity of streamflow (?P) was 1.80, 1.08, 1.78 and 1.95 in Lanzhou, Toudaoguai, Huayuankou and Lijin respectively, while the PE elasticity of streamflow (?ET) was −3.41, −4.40, −4.52 and −4.20 in above four scales, respectively, from which can be seen that streamflow was more sensitive to precipitation in wet region than in arid region and inversely it was more sensitive to PE in arid regions than in wet regions. Furthermore, precipitation elasticity of streamflow calculated from the partial correlation presented a reasonable result to show the combined effect of precipitation and PE on streamflow.  相似文献   

2.
David Ward 《Ecological modelling》2010,221(19):2406-3215
Based on data collected over 24 years in the Serengeti in Tanzania, Sinclair and Arcese (1995) indicated that the sensitivity of blue wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus to predation risk by lions Panthera leo may cause them to change habitats between open (low risk) and wooded (risky) habitats. They found that, in poor rainfall years, predators kill wildebeest that are in better condition than those that die of natural causes. In good rainfall years, predators kill wildebeest that are in worse condition than those that die of natural causes. Sinclair and Arcese (1995) proposed the “predation-sensitive food” hypothesis. This hypothesis suggests that, as food becomes limiting, animals take greater risks to obtain more food, and some of these animals are killed. I propose a more parsimonious hypothesis based on the marginal value theorem that is consistent with the observations made by Sinclair and Arcese (1995). Wildebeest follow a single decision rule in good and poor rainfall years, viz. move when foraging elsewhere increases your rate of intake of nutritious food. Similarly, predators follow a single decision rule in good and poor rainfall years, viz. take the prey item that maximizes the intake of energy per unit effort expended. This parsimonious model does not require differences in predator sensitivity as required by Sinclair and Arcese's (1995) model. I indicate ways in which my model can be falsified.  相似文献   

3.
Streambed sediment has been attracting attention as a reservoir for bacteria, including pathogenic strains. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been augmented with a bacteria transport subroutine in SWAT2005 in which bacteria die-off is the only in-stream process. The purpose of this study was to develop the partial model of sediment-associated bacteria transport in stream and to evaluate the potential significance of streambed Escherichia coli (E. coli) release and deposition within the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Streambed E. coli release and deposition were simulated based on the sediment resuspension and deposition modules in SWAT. The modified SWAT was applied to the Little Cove Creek watershed, Pennsylvania, which has forestry and dairy pasture landuses. Temporal changes in sediment E. coli concentrations were derived from monitoring data rather than from a streambed bacteria population model. Sensitivity analyses and calibrations were separately conducted for both hydrologic and bacteria parameters. Hydrologic calibration characterized soils in the watershed as pervious and thus the surface runoff was only moderately contributing to the streamflow. However, the surface runoff carried large numbers of E. coli to the stream, and sediment resuspension contributed to the persistent concentration of E. coli in stream water. Although the uncertainty of E. coli concentrations in streambed sediments and from wildlife probably affected the performance of the modified SWAT model, this study qualitatively confirmed the significance of modeling E. coli release from streambed and deposition for the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Further developments should include modeling dynamics of bacteria populations within streambeds.  相似文献   

4.
Ria Formosa Lagoon is the most important bivalve production region of the South Portuguese coast. However, the microbial contamination has been increasing in the northwest area of the lagoon. This study assesses the microbiological contamination of clams Ruditapes decussatus from the most contaminated area for 1 year period. Escherichia coli levels were weekly determined and related with variations in several environmental parameters: precipitation, atmospheric temperature, solar radiation, wind velocity, humidity and tide height. Highest E. coli levels in clams were associated with periods of heaviest rainfall and lowest temperature, mainly due to diffuse sources of faecal discharges. A seasonal trend was observed: microbial contamination in clams was lowest in summer, with highest temperatures, intense solar radiation and dry weather and higher in the remaining seasons, especially in winter due to the runoff of faecal contaminated waters. Several measurements not only to protect the quality of the lagoon, but also to protect public health were recommended. The most imperative will be to detect and extinguish the diffuse contamination sources. Otherwise it might be necessary to implement an interdiction period of bivalve harvesting after heavy rainfalls.  相似文献   

5.
Enchytraeids are regarded as keystone soil organisms in forest ecosystems. Their abundance and biomass fluctuate widely. Predicting the consequences of anthropogenic disturbances requires an understanding of the mechanisms underlying enchytraeid population dynamics. Here I develop a simple model, which predicts that the type of dynamics is controlled by resource input rate. If fungal resource input is a discrete event once a year, an exponential growth phase is followed by starvation and sharp decline of enchytraeid abundance. Model simulations with three different forcing functions were compared to field data. Initial parameter values were obtained from various independent sources, and parameters were estimated by minimizing the residual sum of squares. The best fitting model with resource addition once a year explained 39% of the variation in enchytraeid biomass over an 8-year study period. Further, variation in rainfall explained 59% of the variation in R2 of the exponential phase models, which is also an index of the stability of population size-structure. The results emphasize the importance of resource limitation for enchytraeid population dynamics and support the hypothesis that the mortality during the decline phase is size-dependent.  相似文献   

6.
Barnacles in the genus Chelonibia are commensal with a variety of motile marine animals including sea turtles, crustaceans, and sirenians. We conducted a worldwide molecular phylogenetic survey of Chelonibia collected from nearly all known hosts to assess species relationships, host-fidelity, and phylogeographic structure. Using DNA sequences from a protein-coding mitochondrial gene (COI), a mitochondrial rRNA gene (12S), and one nuclear rRNA gene (28S), we found that of four species, three (C. testudinaria, C. patula, and C. manati) are genetically indistinguishable. In addition, we show each utilizes a rare androdioecious mode of reproduction involving complemental males. In contrast, the fourth species (C. caretta), which is hermaphroditic and specializes on turtles, is genetically distinct—leading to the conclusion that the three former taxa are morphotypes of the same species and should be synonymized under C. testudinaria. Phylogenetic analysis resulted in three geographic clades (Atlantic, Indian Ocean/western Pacific, and eastern Pacific) with haplotype parsimony networks revealing no shared haplotypes among geographic regions. Analysis of molecular variance detected significant differences among sequences by region (p < 0.005); conversely, there were no significant differences among sequences when grouped by host or taxonomic designation. Average pairwise genetic distances were lower between the eastern Pacific and Atlantic clades (0.053 ± 0.006) than between the eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean/western Pacific clades (0.073 ± 0.008), suggesting Atlantic and eastern Pacific populations were connected more recently, perhaps until the rise of the Isthmus of Panama. Host use by Chelonibia morphotypes is discussed along with speculation on possible ancestral hosts and support for a “turtle-first” hypothesis.  相似文献   

7.
Crop and livestock depredation by wildlife is a primary driver of human–wildlife conflict, a problem that threatens the coexistence of people and wildlife globally. Understanding mechanisms that underlie depredation patterns holds the key to mitigating conflicts across time and space. However, most studies do not consider imperfect detection and reporting of conflicts, which may lead to incorrect inference regarding its spatiotemporal drivers. We applied dynamic occupancy models to elephant crop depredation data from India between 2005 and 2011 to estimate crop depredation occurrence and model its underlying dynamics as a function of spatiotemporal covariates while accounting for imperfect detection of conflicts. The probability of detecting conflicts was consistently <1.0 and was negatively influenced by distance to roads and elevation gradient, averaging 0.08–0.56 across primary periods (distinct agricultural seasons within each year). The probability of crop depredation occurrence ranged from 0.29 (SE 0.09) to 0.96 (SE 0.04). The probability that sites raided by elephants in primary period t would not be raided in primary period t + 1 varied with elevation gradient in different seasons and was influenced negatively by mean rainfall and village density and positively by distance to forests. Negative effects of rainfall variation and distance to forests best explained variation in the probability that sites not raided by elephants in primary period t would be raided in primary period t + 1. With our novel application of occupancy models, we teased apart the spatiotemporal drivers of conflicts from factors that influence how they are observed, thereby allowing more reliable inference on mechanisms underlying observed conflict patterns. We found that factors associated with increased crop accessibility and availability (e.g., distance to forests and rainfall patterns) were key drivers of elephant crop depredation dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for rigorous prediction of future conflicts, a critical requirement for effective conflict management in the context of increasing human–wildlife interactions.  相似文献   

8.
Event-triggered sampling from a stream in agricultural terrain has revealed a level of contamination considerably higher than that which has generally been assumed, although only moderate amounts of insecticides had been washed away from the cultivated fields. Macroinvertebrate sampling carried out in parallel with the contamination measurements documented severe negative effects of the insecticide inputs on the aquatic community; 8 of the 11 species disappeared from the water for a period of 3 to 6 months. In field investigations, as well as inin situ bioassays,L. lunatus andG. pulex exhibited acute responses (drifting, mortality during drifting) which were seen to be significantly higher than those values noted at an uncontaminated control site as far as even 2000 m from the input site. In these bioassays, where the animals are confined in cages, the insecticide toxicity inG. pulex may be overestimated compared to the field data since the drifting behavior of this species normally helps it to avoid contamination.  相似文献   

9.
Using platinum based catalytic converters, platinum is emitted with the exhaust gases and deposited on the roads, and in their vicinity (sewage treatment plants, rivers), which increases the platinum concentrations in aquatic eco-systems. To evaluate the platinum discharge from roads, the platinum concentration was measured in rainwater from a road with a traffic fre quency of 16,000 automobiles per day. The platinum content of the samples varies strongly dependent upon the previous dry period, and the intensity and duration of the rainfall. Platinum was measured in 18 run-off samples from various rainfall events. The maximum platinum concentrations showed values up to 1.1. μg/l. The median value was 15 ng/l. Analysis of a sample from one rainfall events shows that platinum has a well defined firstflush effect, similar to that of particular bound lead and copper. The good correlation between platinum and coarse suspended matter, coarse particular lead and copper indicates that platinum in road run-offs is frequently found to be particular bound. Under the assumption that the road has been completely washed off, the platinum deposition can be estimated to be 14 ng/(m2d).  相似文献   

10.
Characteristics of rainfall runoff from a 3.26 hm2 urban catchment with predominant land-use as lawn in Xiamen City, South-east China were investigated and analyzed. Water quality and quantity measurements of rainfall runoff were conducted for ten rainfall events over the period March, 2008 to April, 2009. The results indicated that chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) were the major pollutants with event mean concentrations of 56.09 and 0.44 mg·L?1. From hydrograph and pollutograph analysis of two typical rainfall events, it was clear that the peak rainfall preceded the peak flowrate by about 15?C20 min. Meanwhile, concentrations of major pollutants showed multiple peaks and these peaks usually preceded peak flowrate. There were no distinctive first-flush effects except for the rainfall events with the longest rainfall duration and largest runoff volume, which was verified by the fact that the first 30% runoff volume (FF30) carried 39.36% of the total suspended solids (TSS) load, 35.17% of the COD load, 28.13% of the TP load and 39.03% of the nitrate nitrogen load. Multivariate regression analysis further demonstrated that the total runoff volume had a positive correlation with the FF30 of TSS and COD.  相似文献   

11.
This paper is a contribution to the emergy evaluation of systems involving recycling or reuse of waste. If waste exergy (its residual usefulness) is not negligible, wastes could serve as input to another process or be recycled. In cases of continuous waste recycle or reuse, what then is the role of emergy? Emergy is carried by matter and its value is shown to be the product of specific energy with mass flow rate and its transformity. This transformity (τ) given as the ratio of the total emergy input and the useful available energy in the product (exergy) is commonly calculated over a specific period of time (usually yearly) which makes transformity a time dependent factor. Assuming a process in which a part of the non-renewable input is an output (waste) from a previous system, for the waste to be reused, an emergy investment is needed. The transformity of the reused or recycled material should be calculated based on the pathway of the reused material at a certain time (T) which results in a specific transformity value (τ). In case of a second recycle of the same material that had undergone the previous recycle, the material pathway has a new time (T + T1) which results in a transformity value (τ1). Recycling flows as in the case of feedback is a dynamic process and as such the process introduces its own time period depending on its pathway which has to be considered in emergy evaluations. Through the inspiration of previous emergy studies, authors have tried to develop formulae which could be used in such cases of continuous recycling of material in this paper. The developed approach is then applied to a case study to give the reader a better understanding of the concept. As a result, a ‘factor’ is introduced which could be included on emergy evaluation tables to account for subsequent transformity changes in multiple recycling. This factor can be used to solve the difficulties in evaluating aggregated systems, serve as a correction factor to up-level such models keeping the correct evaluation and also solve problems of memory loss in emergy evaluation. The discussion deals with the questions; is it a pure mathematical paradox in the rules of emergy? Is it consistent with previous work? What were the previous solutions to avoid the cumulative problem in a reuse? What are the consequences?  相似文献   

12.
Endeis laevis (Grube) is the more littoral of the two British members of the Endeidae (Pycnogonida). The process of vitellogenesis is examined. It closely resembles that of annelids and Limulus polyphemus, in which the majority of the yolk is synthesised within the oocyte with only a small contribution from outside the oocyte. This contrasts with the method in insects in which most of the yolk comes from outside the oocyte. The vitellogenic process is slow, the eggs accumulating yolk over the winter. Although E. laevis has two reproductive cycles each year, only one brood is produced, juveniles occurring over a restricted period (July and early August).  相似文献   

13.
Wet deposition scavenges particles and particle-associated bacteria from the air column, but the impact of raindrops on various surfaces on Earth causes emission of surface-associated bacteria into the air column. Thus, after rainfall, these two mechanisms are expected to cause changes in airborne bacterial community composition (BCC). In this study, aerosol samples were collected at a suburban site in Seoul, Korea before and after three heavy rainfall events in April, May, and July 2011. BCC was investigated by pyrosequencing the 16S rRNA gene in aerosol samples. Interestingly, the relative abundance of non-spore forming Actinobacteria operational taxonomic units (OTUs) was always higher in post-rain aerosol samples. In particular, the absolute and relative abundances of airborne Propionibacteriaceae always increased after rainfall, whereas those of airborne Firmicutes, including Carnobacteriaceae and Clostridiales, consistently decreased. Marine bacterial sequences, which were temporally important in aerosol samples, also decreased after rainfall events. Further, increases in pathogen-like sequences were often observed in post-rain air samples. Rainfall events seemed to affect airborne BCCs by the combined action of the two mechanisms, with potentially adverse effects on human and plant health.
  相似文献   

14.
To gain a better understanding of population processes and in the light of the critically endangered status of the Common Guillemot Uria aalge in Norway, we investigate which environmental factors might affect the fitness of guillemot chicks as they depart from the nest site over a 16-year period on a colony in NE Norway. Although prey composition did not seem to influence the fledging body mass of the chicks, there were significant relationships between the yearly variations in chick body mass and abundance of two important prey species (1-group herring Clupea harengus that is an important chick food item and 0-group cod Gadus morhua that is an important adult food item), population size and the sea surface temperature around the colony. The positive influence of young herring and cod on Common Guillemot chick mass occurred during a period of warming in the Barents Sea such that future recruitment into the population will depend partly on the long-term changes in ocean climate in the region.  相似文献   

15.
The outer layer of the eggshell in birds is in many cases covered by pigments that are assumed to be genetically determined traits with a negligible environmental component. To test the hypothesis that spring environmental conditions (i.e., temperature and rainfall) may affect bird egg pigmentation, we measured by spectrophotometry and photography egg coloration and spottiness on reed warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus L.) clutches parasitized by the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus L.) collected over a period of 24 years and preserved in the Zoological Museum, Copenhagen, Denmark. In addition, we investigated whether spring environmental conditions may influence the coevolutionary relationship between the cuckoo and its host via changes in cuckoo–host egg matching. Generalized mixed models revealed that reed warbler eggs were more brilliant in those springs with a higher rainfall and tended to be bluer and greener in springs with a lower relative temperature. On the other hand, cuckoo eggs were bluer and greener in springs with a higher rainfall. Cuckoo–host egg matching in blue-greenness and spottiness was better in springs with a higher rainfall. These results provide support for the existence of an environmental component on bird egg coloration and suggest that environmental factors may potentially affect the outcome of important features of the arms race between cuckoos and reed warblers.  相似文献   

16.
The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.  相似文献   

17.
A natural population of Pycnogonum litorale Ström was examined every 4 weeks over a period of 15 months and thereafter at yearly intervals for 15 years. Adult pycnogonids – mating couples and males carrying egg batches – and freshly hatched protonymphon larvae within these egg batches were found throughout the year. The second, third, and fourth instar larvae were only found from April to July, during the vegetation period of their hydroid host Clava multicornis. After metamorphosis to the fifth instar (first juvenile instar) the pycnogonids have a significantly larger proboscis than during the larval period, and they feed on the sea anemone Metridium senile. First juvenile instars were found on M. senile from May to August. Older and larger juvenile stages were found over longer time spans throughout the year, and the maximum number of successive instars shifted slowly from June to December. Freshly moulted adults occurred throughout the year. Males, which on the average are smaller, usually reach the adult stage during late autumn of the first year and females, at the end of the following spring. We conclude that in nature the development from egg to adult stage is completed within one year. Continuous reproduction and asynchronous embryonic development provide offspring throughout most of the year. The annual cycle is synchronized by the vegetation period of C. multicornis, the only host of these pycnogonid larvae in the investigated habitat, and by the arrest of growth during low winter temperatures. The low level of locomotory activity of P. litorale probably requires an environment in which both host species coexist. The abundance of C. multicornis, M. senile, and juvenile pycnogonids decreased from 1990 to 1996, maybe due to hydrographic conditions.  相似文献   

18.
Previous work by Atkinson and Lewis (J. Environ. Econ. Manag.1, 237–250 (1974)) and Anderson et al. (“An Analysis of Alternative Policies for Attaining and Maintaining a Short-Term NO2 Standard,” MATHTECH, Inc., Princeton, N.J., 1979) has indicated the tremendous cost advantages to be achieved by moving from a policy based on emission standards to one based on marketable emission permits. As Tietenberg (Land Econ.56, 391–416 (1980)) points out, however, neither of the major permit designs treated in the literature are optimal from all points of view. This has triggered a search for alternative permit designs, which, while they may not minimize compliance costs, have sufficient other virtues as to make them attractive on other grounds. The purpose of this paper is to examine, within the context of an empirical mathematical programming model, the air quality, emission, and cost consequences of two classes of the permit designs which can be implemented in the absence of information on control costs. This case study involves particulate control in St. Louis.  相似文献   

19.
《Ecological modelling》2005,182(2):159-181
Plant species’ climatic range limiters provide clues to reconstruct past climates, restore ecosystems, and manage agricultural systems. However, precise climatic limiters are unknown for many important species, and determining them typically involves long-term autecological studies. A new method presented here automatically and quantitatively infers limiters for a plant species using its documented, digitized distribution. The method uses available and accessible elevation and climate datasets from the US Geological Survey (USGS) and NOAA, along with common off-the-shelf (COTS) geographic information software technology (GIS) to determine which variables in the plant distribution climate space are actually limiting the range by restricting its movement into surrounding territory. The method utilizes precision climate interpolation allowing for independent variables in addition to latitude and longitude, via a software package developed at Australian National University (ANUSPLIN). For this first run, elevation and slope were included as independent variables for interpolating precipitation and temperature surfaces. The model defined limits for five Sonoran Desert plant species: Carnegiea gigantea, Cercidium microphyllum, Encelia farinosa, Ferocactus acanthodes, and Larrea tridentata. Results were tested against environmental factors outlined in autecological studies. Important model-derived climatic constraints to the distribution of C. gigantea include insufficient monsoon precipitation, low winter and monsoon temperatures, and excessive monsoon and fall precipitation. The distribution of C. microphyllum is constrained by cold winter and fall temperatures, excessive spring and summer precipitation and insufficient fall precipitation. E. farinosa is restricted by frigid winter temperatures and too much summer rainfall. Key factors limiting F. acanthodes are cold winter temperatures and inadequate fall and monsoon precipitation. An inordinate amount of precipitation during the summer, monsoon, and fall constrict the range of L. tridentata, along with an abnormally cool summer or monsoon. Results indicate that the method adequately resolves plant range limiters consistent with the autecological record. Future changes to the model are offered to improve results.  相似文献   

20.
Human-mediated and natural disturbances such as nutrient enrichment, habitat modification, and flood events often result in significant shifts in species composition and abundance that translate into changes in the food web structure. Six mass-balanced models were developed using the “Ecopath with Ecosim” software package to assess changes in benthic food web properties in the Mondego estuarine ecosystem (Portugal). Field, laboratory and literature information were used to construct the models. The main study objective was to assess at 2 sites (a Zostera meadow and a bare sediment area) the effects of: (1) a period of anthropogenic enrichment, which led to excessive production of organic matter in the form of algal blooms (1993/1994); (2) the implementation of mitigation measures, following a long period of eutrophication (1999/2000); and (3) a centenary flood (winter 2000/2001). Different numbers of compartments were identified at each site and in each time period. In general, the Zostera site, due to its complex community, showed a higher number of compartments and a higher level of system activity (i.e. sum of consumptions, respiration, flow to detritus, production, total system throughput, net primary production and system omnivory index). The differences at the two sites in the three time periods in the breakdown of throughput were mainly due to differences in the biomass of the primary producers (higher primary production at the Zostera site). Consumption, respiration and flow to detritus were dominated by the grazers Hydrobia ulvae and Scrobicularia plana at the Zostera and bare sediment sites respectively. At both sites, after recovery measures were implemented there was an increase in S. plana and Hediste diversicolor biomass, consumption, respiration and flows to detritus, and a decrease in H. ulvae biomass and associated flows, which increased again after the flood event. The mass-balanced models showed that the trophic structure of the benthic communities in Mondego estuary was affected differently by each disturbance event. Interestingly, in our study a high system throughput seems to be associated with higher stress levels, which contradicts the idea that higher system activity is always a sign of healthier conditions.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号