广东省农业现代化科技示范区的能值分析与评价指标研究

为了从生态经济学角度揭示农业现代化示范区园区的生态经济运行质量,探索一条能更客观、更简单地评价农业科技园区的新途径,文章运用能值理论和方法,分析和评价了广东省农业现代化科技示范区的能值投资率、能值产出率、能值密度、人均能值用量、环境负载率、能值生产率、每万元产值消耗能值和基于能值分析的可持续发展指数等指标,并从中筛选出其能值评价的主要指标。主要结果如下,(1)从2000—2004年,广东省农业现代化科技示范区的总投入能值和总产出能值呈现快速增加的趋势,能值密度和环境负载率持续增加,人均能值使用量,能值投资率和能值生产率呈波动增加的趋势,而能值产出率,可持续发展指数和每万元产值消耗能值呈波动下降的趋势。这说明该示范区总体上呈现快速发展的趋势,经济实力和科技竞争力不断增加。(2)本研究运用主成分分析法、因子分析法和实证对比研究法提出评价农业现代化科技示范区的最佳指标是人均能值使用量和环境负载率。     

"奶牛-沼气-牧草"循环型农业系统的能值分析

为探讨奶牛-沼气-牧草循环型农业模式(模式Ⅰ)的结构功能和生态经济效益,应用能值分析方法对其进行研究,并与单一奶牛养殖模式(模式Ⅱ)进行比较。结果表明:模式Ⅰ的净能值产出率(4.06)比模式Ⅱ(4.13)低;模式Ⅰ能值可持续发展指标值为10.27,模式Ⅱ为9.57,模式Ⅰ具有更高的可持续发展能力;模式Ⅰ的环境负载率(0.11)低于模式Ⅱ(0.12),并且模式Ⅱ能值废弃率为21.72%,模式Ⅰ为0,因此模式Ⅰ对环境的压力小;模式Ⅰ产出能值反馈率达到30.63%,系统自组织能力强。模式Ⅰ的净效益是模式Ⅱ的1.13倍,但产投比是模式Ⅱ的97.64%。以能值-货币价值计算的生态经济效益分析结果与实际经济效益分析结果基本一致。因此,模式Ⅰ具有环境压力小、自组织能力强、可持续发展能力较强的特征,但仍需进一步优化系统内部结构,提高生产效率。     

“奶牛-沼气-牧草”循环型农业系统的能值分析

为探讨“奶牛-沼气-牧草”循环型农业模式（模式I）的结构功能和生态经济效益,应用能值分析方法对其进行研究,并与单一奶牛养殖模式（模式Ⅱ）进行比较。结果表明：模式Ⅰ的净能值产出率（4．06）比模式Ⅱ（4．13）低;模式Ⅰ能值可持续发展指标值为10．27,模式Ⅱ为9．57,模式Ⅰ具有更高的可持续发展能力;模式Ⅰ的环境负载率（0．11）低于模式Ⅱ（0．12）,并且模式Ⅱ能值废弃率为21．72％,模式I为0,因此模式Ⅰ对环境的压力小;模式Ⅰ产出能值反馈率达到30．63％,系统自组织能力强。模式Ⅰ的净效益是模式Ⅱ的1．13倍,但产投比是模式Ⅱ的97．64％。以能值-货币价值计算的生态经济效益分析结果与实际经济效益分析结果基本一致。因此,模式Ⅰ具有环境压力小、自组织能力强、可持续发展能力较强的特征,但仍需进一步优化系统内部结构,提高生产效率。     

基于能值方法的广东省农业系统分析

采用能值理论和方法对广东省农业系统的能值投入结构和产出特征进行分析,以期弥补单纯经济分析中出现的自然环境投入价值缺失的不足,并尝试加入农业基本建设投资和农业保险的计量,完善系统投入结构的能值计算。同时,引入Y*/Y指标使广东省农业系统的生产水平与全球平均水平相比较,以利于评价广东省农业系统的生产力及其发展水平,并为其优化发展提供理论依据和现实指导。研究结果:广东省农业系统2003年的能值投资率(3.12)、环境负载率(1.70)、能值/货币比率(4.26E 12sej.$-1)、净能值产出率(1.25)和Y*/Y(0.96)。上述结果与中国平均水平、中国其他省份以及一些发达国家(如意大利和日本)的相应指标比较,表明广东农业系统发展水平高于全国平均水平,低于发达国家。系统能值投入产出结构分析发现,不可更新的工业辅助能值占系统投入总能值的61.92%。为此,应进一步提高农业的可更新能值投入和优化投入结构。     

三水市农业生态系统经济能值投入产出分析

进行生态学与经济学系统分析方法的交叉探索,将能值这一全新的生态经济度量尺度引入经济学投入产出分析表,对广东省珠江三角洲三水市农业生态系统经济能值的直接消耗系统和完全消耗系统分析,弥补经济学分析中自然环境投入价值缺失的同时,为复合系统能值分析中各系统间互作分析的量化评价探索了新的途径。分析结果表明:三水市农业生态系统中种植业、渔业、畜牧业和林业之间存在经济能值的依存关系,有着直接的相互作用。种植业、渔业和畜牧业子系统间的经济能值交流网络较为发达。在种植业、渔业、畜牧业和林业中,渔业对种植业的完全消耗系数最大,达到3.461×10-2,畜牧业对种植业的完全消耗系数也最大,达到了8.423×10-2;种植业对渔业的完全消耗系数最大,达到了7.685×10-2。林业与种植业、渔业、畜牧业互相的完全消耗系数都比较小,林业和其它三个子系统的经济能值交流较弱。种植业子系统是整个三水市农业生态系统的基础,渔业和畜牧业在种植业的基础上发展,对物质和能量的再利用起了重要作用。林业子系统是三水市农业生态系统内部物质能量交流网络的薄弱环节。三水市农业生态系统的内部结构有待进一步调整,以加强各子系统间的互作,提高物质与能量的使用效率。     

北京城市生态系统的能值动态分析

采用能值理论与分析方法,对北京市1990~2001年间的能值结构动态进行了分析,并采用人均能值、能值密度、生态功能潜力、人口基本承载力、能值自给率、能值货币比率、环境负载率、输入能值比等重要能值指标对该时期北京市城市生态系统的能值状况作了详细分析。研究表明,北京城市生态系统正处于较高发展水平,已基本跨入发达国家水平的行列;但高强度、快速发展给本市带来了巨大的生态环境压力,未来北京的可持续能力建设已势在必行。文章也提出了北京城市生态系统可持续发展能力建设的基本方向。     

能值理论研究中存在的几个问题探讨

能值理论与研究方法是当前生态经济学研究中的一个热点问题.被认为是连接生态学与经济学的桥梁,具有重大的理论和实践意义.尽管能值分析有效的将自然环境的价值纳入了产品的生产,更能真实地揭示产品的真实价值,从而克服了传统能量分析和经济分析的诸多缺陷.但其在理论和研究方法仍存在一些不足之处.综合国内外有关能值理论与研究方法的相关文献,对当前能值理论研究中能值转化率的计算问题、多产品或复合产品系统的能值流计算问题、能值价值论与市场价值论结合问题、能值与可持续发展研究问题等几个方面进行了探讨.     

宁夏人地系统的物质代谢和生态效率研究——基于能值分析理论

以能值分析理论为基础,对宁夏回族自治区1985-2005年人地系统的物质代谢和生态效率(即可持续性状态)进行了定量分析研究.结果表明:近21年来,宁夏地区的产出效率不断降低,经济发展水平较低;能值废弃率、环境负荷率均呈持续增长趋势;人口与环境的矛盾不断激化,可持续发展能力不断降低.最后,文章在定量分析评价的基础上对宁夏人地系统演变的趋势进行了简要预测及分析,并针对存在的问题,提出了相应的优化方向和措施.     

基于GIS和能值分析的黑龙江省农业生态经济格局综合评价

采用能值分析方法和GIS空间分析技术,基于黑龙江省77个县(市、区)的社会经济统计数据,从时空动态视角评价了黑龙江省域及各县域的农业生态经济格局及其综合发展水平。结果表明,1996—2012年间,黑龙江省农业生态经济系统的能值投入与产出均呈明显的增长趋势,林产品产出能值增长幅度较大。1996—2012年研究区的环境承受压力增大,环境负载率由6.61增加到10.21,净能值产出率由5.37减少到4.79,可持续发展指数由7.47下降到5.43,说明该系统的可持续发展性能正在逐年弱化。在空间格局上,黑龙江省南部地区经济发展水平显著优于北部地区,但其农业生态环境水平和系统可持续能力低于北部地区。为了增加黑龙江省农业生态系统的可持续发展能力,未来需进一步调整农业结构,优化资源配置的投入,提高资源利用效率,降低环境负载率,使农业生态经济系统逐渐步入健康可持续发展轨道。     

华北平原集约农区种植业生态经济系统的能值分析——以河北沧州为例

从能值的角度出发,以华北平原代表区域——河北省沧州地区2003年统计数据和调查数据为基础,对该地区种植业生态经济系统的能值投入和产出进行首次分析。结果显示:该地区不可更新的工业辅助能占总能值投入的78.5%,可更新的能值投入仅占21.4%(可更新环境资源8.79%、可更新有机12.68%),说明农业生产过渡依赖于外源不可更新辅助能的投入;此外,高系统太阳能值转换率、低净能值产出率和高环境负荷率的特点,表明该地区种植业的科技发展水平比较高,对环境的压力相当大。综合结果说明种植业系统对环境资源的过度利用必然会引起生态环境的破坏。基于此,提出华北平原集约农区种植业生态经济系统可持续发展对策:以优化施肥为基础,合理减少化肥投入为代表,适当降低工业辅助能投入;调整农业增产投入战略,努力解决该地区以水资源短缺为主的作物增产限制因子;改变农业生产中有机能值与无机能值的投入比例,降低系统环境负荷率。     

Emergy analysis of the urban metabolism of Beijing

Cities can be modeled as if they were superorganisms with a range of metabolic processes. Research on this urban metabolism can contribute to solving urban environmental problems by revealing details of the metabolic throughput of the system. A key issue is how to find a common basis for measuring the environmental and economic values. By providing a single unified unit, emergy theory integrates the natural and socioeconomic systems and thoroughly evaluates a system's metabolism. We analyzed Beijing's urban metabolic system using emergy synthesis to evaluate its environmental resources, economy, and environmental and economic relations with the regions outside the city during 14 years of development. We compared Beijing's emergy indices with those of five other Chinese cities and of China as a whole to assess Beijing's relative development status. These indices are the emergy self-support ratio (metabolic dependence), the environmental load ratio (metabolic loading), empower density (metabolic pressure), emergy used per person (metabolic intensity per capita), and the monetary equivalent of emergy (emdollars; metabolic intensity). Based on our emergy analysis, Beijing's socioeconomic system is not self-sufficient, and depends greatly on external environmental resources. Its GDP is supported by a high percentage of emergy purchased from outside the city. During the study period, Beijing's urban system showed an increasing dependence on external resources for its economic development. Beijing's loading and pressure on the ecological environment is continuously increasing, accompanied by continuously increasing human emergy consumption. In the future, it will become increasingly necessary to improve Beijing's metabolic efficiency.     

烟台市生态经济系统的能值分析

利用能值分析方法分析了2013年烟台市生态经济系统的能值流动状况,并提出了相应的能值利用调控对策。2013年烟台市生态经济系统的能值总用量为2.630×1023 sej,人均能值用量为4.044×10^16 sej,能值自给率为22.6%,能值密度为19.14×10^12sej/m^2,能值货币比率为2.848×10^12sej/,电力能值占能值总用量的比例为5.6%,由可更新资源及其产品支持的人口承载力为16.19×10^4人,由可更新资源及其产品、进口产品及技术共同支持的人口承载量为518.6×10^4人,能值可持续指标值为4.986。将上述计算结果与其它国家和地区进行比较表明：虽然目前烟台市经济较发达,能值利用效率和人民生活水平较高,生态经济系统的能值使用总体上符合区域可持续发展的要求,但系统能值自给率较低,生态环境比较脆弱,经济增长对外部输入的能源和资源依赖性较强。据此,提出了调整产业结构、转变经济增长方式、加强电力资源开发、发展科学教育事业等能值利用的调控对策。     

Ecosystem services as a counterpart of emergy flows to ecosystems

A generic input-state-output scheme has been used to represent ecosystem dynamics. Systemic approaches to ecosystems use functions that are based either on inputs, state or outputs of the system. Some examples of approaches that use a combination of functions have been recently proposed. For example the use of eco-exergy to emergy flow can be seen as a mixed input-state approach; more recently, to connect the state to the output of the ecosystem, the relation of eco-exergy and ecosystems services has been proposed. This paper studies the link between the useful output of an ecosystems and its input through the relation between ecosystem services and emergy flow, in a kind of grey/black box scheme (i.e., without considering the state and the structure of the ecosystem). No direct connection between the two concepts can be determined, but identifying and quantifying the emergy flows feeding an ecosystem and the services to humans coming from them facilitate the sustainable conservation of Nature and its functions. Furthermore, this input-output relation can be established in general by calculating the ratio of the value of the ecosystem services to the emergy flow that supports the system. In particular, the ratio of the world ecosystem services to the emergy flow supporting the entire biosphere has been calculated showing that, at least at the global level, Nature is more efficacious in producing “money” (in form of ecosystem services) than economic systems (e.g., national economies and their GDP).     

小城镇复合生态系统能值整合研究

运用能值理论和方法,以湖北省小城镇(大悟县)为案例,对其复合生态系统进行研究,以了解系统的能流结构和特点,为系统持续发展提供科学指导。研究结果表明,该系统能值自给率68.42%,对外界依赖性低,经济安全性高;但人均能值用量和能值密度较低,系统经济不发达。不可更新资源占能值总用量63.51%,属于资源消耗型的经济模式,环境压力较大,不利于区域可持续发展,今后应增加可更新资源的利用,提高不可更新资源的利用效率,增加科技投入,促进该区域可持续发展。     

Methods for estimating the uncertainty in emergy table-form models

Emergy studies have suffered criticism due to the lack of uncertainty analysis and this shortcoming may have directly hindered the wider application and acceptance of this methodology. Recently, to fill this gap, the sources of uncertainty in emergy analysis were described and analytical and stochastic methods were put forward to estimate the uncertainty in unit emergy values (UEVs). However, the most common method used to determine UEVs is the emergy table-form model, and only a stochastic method (i.e., the Monte Carlo method) was provided to estimate the uncertainty of values calculated in this way. To simplify the determination of uncertainties in emergy analysis using table-form calculations, we introduced two analytical methods provided by the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), i.e., the Variance method and the Taylor method, to estimate the uncertainty of emergy table-form calculations for two different types of data, and compared them with the stochastic method in two case studies. The results showed that, when replicate data are available at the system level, i.e., the same data on inputs and output are measured repeatedly in several independent systems, the Variance method is the simplest and most reliable method for determining the uncertainty of the model output, since it considers the underlying covariance of the inputs and requires no assumptions about the probability distributions of the inputs. However, when replicate data are only available at the subsystem level, i.e., repeat samples are measured on subsystems without specific correspondence between an output and a certain suite of inputs, the Taylor method will be a better option for calculating uncertainty, since it requires less information and is easier to understand and perform than the Monte Carlo method.     

Sustainability indicators for environmental performance and sustainability assessment of the productions of four fine Italian wines

Increased awareness of the importance of environmental protection and the introduction of international standards like ISO 14001 stimulated development of environmental sustainability indicators as a means to measure systems environmental performance. Here, a thermodynamic approach, emergy analysis (Odum, 1988) was used to obtain sustainability indicators able to analyse and quantify the productive and ecological performance of four famous Italian wine productions: Chianti, Brunello di Montalcino, Nobile di Montepulciano, and Barbera d'hti. The application to agricultural production was motivated by the growing need for productive and environmentally sound development in modern agriculture, in which the resource base, the environment, is preserved. The choice of wines, more precisely, grape production, is due to their importance for Italian agriculture and the economy. All the wines demonstrated a good long-term environmental sustainability, especially in view of their high quality and in comparison with the average Italian wine production. Emergy analysis proved a powerful tool for assessing environmental performance of these systems, and its use could easily be extended to other wine productions to obtain a form of environmental performance classification of this product. Systematic use of emergy analysis to assess environmental performance of different processes and products, not necessarily in agriculture, could be useful for environmental certification.     

Emergy algebra: Improving matrix methods for calculating transformities

Transformity is one of the core concepts in Energy Systems Theory and it is fundamental to the calculation of emergy. Accurate evaluation of transformities and other emergy per unit values is essential for the broad acceptance, application and further development of emergy methods. Since the rules for the calculation of emergy are different from those for energy, particular calculation methods and models have been developed for use in the emergy analysis of networks, but double counting errors still occur because of errors in applying these rules when estimating the emergies of feedbacks and co-products. In this paper, configurations of network energy flows were classified into seven types based on commonly occurring combinations of feedbacks, splits, and co-products. A method of structuring the network equations for each type using the rules of emergy algebra, which we called “preconditioning” prior to calculating transformities, was developed to avoid double counting errors in determining the emergy basis for energy flows in the network. The results obtained from previous approaches, the Track Summing Method, the Minimum Eigenvalue Model and the Linear Optimization Model, were reviewed in detail by evaluating a hypothetical system, which included several types of interactions and two inputs. A Matrix Model was introduced to simplify the calculation of transformities and it was also tested using the same hypothetical system. In addition, the Matrix Model was applied to two real case studies, which previously had been analyzed using the existing method and models. Comparison of the three case studies showed that if the preconditioning step to structure the equations was missing, double counting would lead to large errors in the transformity estimates, up to 275 percent for complex flows with feedback and co-product interactions. After preconditioning, the same results were obtained from all methods and models. The Matrix Model reduces the complexity of the Track Summing Method for the analysis of complex systems, and offers a more direct and understandable link between the network diagram and the matrix algebra, compared with the Minimum Eigenvalue Model or the Linear Optimization Model.