南泥湾湿地退化与管理对土壤动物多样性的影响

为查明南泥湾湿地生态系统退化对土壤动物群落的影响,于2016年3、6、9和11月分别对南泥湾不同退化阶段湿地的土壤动物群落进行调查。共捕获土壤动物3 285头,隶属4门10纲26目。优势类群为蜱螨目(Acarina)、小杆目(Rhabditida)和弹尾纲(Collembola)。随着退化程度加重,土壤动物群落密度和类群数下降,重度退化和已垦湿地土壤动物密度和多样性指数均极显著低于其他退化阶段(P0. 01)。各样地相似性系数差异分析表明,退化、开垦和退耕均对南泥湾湿地土壤动物群落组成类群和优势类群个体数有较大影响。土壤动物群落密度和多样性的季节动态在不同退化阶段间存在差异,退化会影响土壤动物群落季节变化稳定性。土壤动物优势类群时空分布受退化程度的影响,且不同优势类群受影响程度存在差异。相关分析结果表明土壤动物密度与土壤有机质和全氮含量呈正相关,与pH呈负相关。研究结果表明南泥湾湿地退化会影响土壤动物群落组成和多样性的空间分布和季节动态,而人为开垦活动会降低土壤动物密度和多样性,退耕还湿措施可以使湿地土壤动物密度表现出明显季节变化规律。     

不同灌溉模式对广西蔗田大型土壤动物群落结构的影响

为了探讨不同灌溉模式对大型土壤动物群落结构的影响,在广西崇左市江州区糖料蔗节水灌溉试验区设置地埋滴灌、地表滴灌、管灌、喷灌、微喷5种灌溉处理以及无灌溉空白对照共6个样地,于2015年5—11月对大型土壤动物群落及土壤理化性质进行调查。共捕获大型土壤动物1 180只,隶属于2门10纲18目,优势类群为膜翅目(蚁科),占总数的71.44%;常见类群为蜘蛛目、等翅目(白蚁科)、革翅目、直翅目、鞘翅目、蜚蠊目、半翅目和等足目。不同灌溉模式各样地大型土壤动物类群数差异不显著。灌溉处理样地大型土壤动物密度、ShannonWiener多样性指数(H)、Pielou均匀度指数(E)和Margalef丰富度指数(D)均优于无灌溉样地,Simpson优势度指数(C)则相反,并且地埋滴灌、喷灌样地与无灌溉样地间上述指标均差异显著。不同灌溉模式对蔗田土壤理化性质产生显著影响,地埋滴灌、地表滴灌、管灌、喷灌和微喷样地土壤含水率、有机质含量、速效氮含量、速效磷含量及速效钾含量均高于无灌溉样地,且地埋滴灌与喷灌样地上述指标值较高。节水灌溉增强了土壤的储水能力,提高了土壤的营养条件,改善了蔗田土壤的微环境。大型土壤动物群落结构在不同灌溉模式下变化显著,主要表现在大型土壤动物密度与多样性增加,地埋滴灌和喷灌方式样地表现尤为突出。     

汶川大地震后川西亚高山针叶林土壤动物群落变迁

对川西亚高山针叶林土壤动物群落汶川大地震前后的结构特征进行对比研究,旨在通过土壤动物对地震的响应了解地震对川西亚高山针叶林生态系统功能及过程的影响.结果显示,地震后大型土壤动物类群数、个体密度、DG指数均有小幅增长,但无显著差异;中小型土壤动物类群中,湿生土壤动物线虫的个体密度有一定增加,而干生土壤动物蜱螨目、弹尾目的个体密度有一定减少,但均无显著差异;土壤原生动物由7 083个/g鲜土降至625个/g鲜土,有极显著差异(P0.01).研究表明,受地震影响的林地内,不同体型的土壤动物响应不同,其中,大型土壤动物多样性有所增加,主要与微域生境趋于复杂化有关,而小型和微型土壤动物多样性有所减少,则与地下水位的变化有关.图1表2参16     

半干旱区草地生境中大型土壤动物群落季节动态

选择科尔沁沙地封育草地为研究对象,通过调查大型土壤动物个体数和类群数的季节变化特征及其与气候因子间的关系,分析大型土壤动物群落结构的季节变化规律。结果表明,伴随着气候因子(降雨量和气温)的季节变化,土壤含水量表现为春季>秋季>夏季,而土壤温度表现为夏季>春季>秋季。土壤温湿度的季节性变化显著影响了大型土壤动物群落结构(P<0.05)。大型土壤动物类群数和个体数以及Shannon指数均表现为夏季显著高于秋季(P<0.05),春季居中;而均匀度指数则与此相反(P<0.05),表现为夏季<春季<秋季。随着季节更替,不同大型土壤动物类群对气候因子变化产生了不同的响应和适应性,不同季节表现出了不同的大型土壤动物类群及其个体数分布,而且在夏季表现出较高的大型土壤动物多样性。     

铜陵市铜尾矿土壤动物群落生态研究

对安徽省铜陵市铜尾矿地6种生境中土壤动物群落进行野外调查和室内分析，研究不同弃置堆放时间的铜尾矿地土壤的动物群落结构及其与尾矿基质理化性质、植被状况等生境条件之间的关系。结果表明，尾矿堆放时间、区位地貌和植被状况的不同，尾矿基质的理化性质发生变化，导致土壤动物的种类组成和数量分布具有明显差异。土壤动物在土体中的表聚性强，绝大部分集中分布于A层(0～5cm)；土壤的物理性质越稳定，土壤动物越丰富；土壤肥力越高，土壤动物越丰富多样。即尾矿地土壤的生境条件越优越，土壤动物群落的物种丰富度越大，个体数量分布越多，群落多样性越高。这些研究结论为尾矿区的生态修复和可持续利用提供了参考依据。     

放牧干扰后自然恢复沙质草地大型土壤动物功能群变化特征

通过调查科尔沁沙质退化草地不同强度放牧干扰（重度放牧,HGR;适度放牧,MGR）后自然恢复草地中大型土壤动物群落特征,分析了放牧干扰对大型土壤动物功能群的长期影响。结果共获得大型土壤动物1门2纲8目32个类群,优势类群为象甲科（鞘翅目）和蚁科（膜翅目）2类,共占捕获量的41．54％。大型土壤动物功能群包括植食性、肉食性和杂食性3类,分别具有16、15和1个类群,其个体数分别占总捕获数的64．08％、32．39％和3．52％。HGR有23个动物类群,分属于3个功能群;MGR有19个类群,但只有2个功能群（无杂食性）。HGR大型土壤动物个体数、类群数和多样性指数均略高于MGR,但HGR和MGR间无显著差异性（P〉0．05）。植食性和肉食性土壤动物个体数占总个体数比例HGR均略低于MGR,但植食性动物和肉食性动物个体数间的比例较稳定。与中度放牧干扰产生的影响相比,重度放牧干扰对大型土壤动物群落（包括功能群特征）产生的长期影响更为明显。重度放牧后沙质草地自然恢复过程中大型土壤动物群落的营养结构变得更为复杂,但12年恢复时间对大型土壤动物群落结构恢复的影响有限。     

左家自然保护区采伐迹地土壤动物群落特征

林地采伐后形成采伐迹地,其植被处于逐渐恢复阶段,改变了原有地上植物群落组成及土壤的生态环境.于2011年4月和7月研究了吉林左家自然保护区采伐13-14年迹地和未被采伐的相应生境的土壤动物群落结构,以期为森林生态系统恢复提供土壤动物学依据.采样生境分别是:蒙古栎+黑桦林采伐迹地,人工落叶松林采伐迹地,蒙古栎+黑桦林和人工落叶松林.结果显示:蒙古栎+黑桦林采伐迹地大型土壤动物个体密度为251.5只/m2,类群数22类,多样性指数为2.34,显著低于未经采伐蒙古栎+黑桦林的个体密度(309.5只/m2)、类群数(30类)、多样性指数(3.13);中小型土壤动物个体密度为0.97×104只/m2,类群数20类,多样性指数1.98,均低于未经采伐蒙古栎+黑桦林的个体密度(2.12×104只/m2)、类群数(22类)、多样性指数(2.05).人工落叶松林采伐迹地则相反.土壤动物群落与土壤有机质、全氮(P0.05)和pH(P0.05)有明显相关性,而与土壤全磷(P0.05)和含水率(P0.05)相关性不明显.总之,采伐在一定程度上改变了土壤动物的群落组结构,但由于采伐前林型不同使得采伐后植被恢复过程中土壤动物群落的变化也存在差异.     

模拟氮沉降对苗圃地土壤动物群落的影响

通过人工喷施氮H4NO3建立了一个模拟氮沉降增加梯度系列,在近18个月的试验处理期间,研究了2003年7月、10月和2004年2月、5月这几个不同季度苗圃试验样地土壤动物群落对氮沉降增加的响应。实验分为5个处理组:对照、低氮、中氮、高氮和倍高氮,分别接受0、5、10、15、30g/(m2·a)的氮沉降量。土壤细菌和真菌的数量总体上随氮处理的加强而持续显著地增长,土壤有机氮含量也持续升高,土壤酸度则不断下降。采样期对土壤动物的个体数量、类群丰度和多样性存在显著的影响,总的来说,土壤动物群落随试验处理期加长而持续增长。土壤动物群落具有显著的垂直分异特征,土壤I层土壤动物个体数量、类群丰度和多样性显著高于II和III层。氮沉降增加对土壤动物群落有明显的影响,表现为施氮处理明显有利于土壤动物群落的发展,但也具有明显的阀值效应。与对照样地相比,各施氮处理样地土壤动物群落水平整体为高,而且随试验处理时间的增加这种差异有加大的趋势;氮沉降增加处理与取样期之间存在显著的交互作用,除了2月取样,中氮处理土壤动物群落水平都处于最高水平,而对照处理一般处于最低水平,这种趋势在最后一次取样中最为明显;氮沉降处理与土壤动物的垂直分布之间也有明显的交互作用:在土壤I层,从对照至倍高氮处理,土壤动物群     

大兴安岭火烧迹地土壤动物的群落多样行

以大兴安岭地区不同年份火烧迹地土壤动物为研究对象,对火烧后不同恢复时间土壤动物群落多样性及相关指数的变化进行分析.结果表明,大型土壤动物的个体数、DIC指数、丰富度指数及优势度指数变化趋势均表现为火烧恢复初期迅速增加,然后缓慢增加并逐渐接近对比样地值;如果不考虑8 a迹地数据极大值的影响,中小型土壤动物的个体数、DIC指数、丰富度指数及优势度指数也大致呈现火烧恢复初期迅速增加,然后缓慢增长的趋势;在垂直方向上,大型土壤动物DIC指数、个体数及丰富度指数在0～5 cm最大,向上、向下减少,而中小型土壤动物的各项指数都是凋落物层最大,向下迅速减小;相关分析表明,大型和中小型土壤动物的个体数和丰富度指数与DIC指数都具有极高的相关性;群落相似性分析显示,各火烧迹地间土壤动物群落具有较高的相似性.图1表3参26     

长白山地不同地貌类型农田生态系统土壤动物群落特征及季节动态

土壤动物对改善农田生态系统土壤生态环境、修复退化的生态功能起着不可替代的作用.分别于2015年的春季、夏季和秋季对长白山地玄武岩台地、花岗岩低山区、花岗岩丘陵区玉米田的土壤动物进行研究.其中大型土壤动物的获取采用手捡法,中小型土壤动物采用Tullgren分离.结果表明:3次取样共获取土壤动物2 956只,计42类,隶属于3门7纲16目,甲螨亚目和等节跳虫科是各地貌类型共有的优势类群.各地貌类型土壤动物个体密度和类群数均为花岗岩低山区最低;玄武岩台地土壤动物个体密度夏季最高,花岗岩低山区和花岗岩丘陵区秋季最高.垂直分布上3个地貌类型土壤动物个体密度均具有表聚性,但花岗岩丘陵区表聚性不明显.土壤动物多样性表现为花岗岩丘陵区最高,花岗岩低山区最低;春季、夏季花岗岩丘陵区土壤动物多样性最高,秋季各地貌类型土壤动物多样性差异并不显著.本研究表明长白山地不同地貌类型农田生态系统土壤动物群落特征及季节动态存在显著差异.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.