Taxing overexploited open-access fisheries: the role of demand elasticity

The paper aims at identifying the effects exerted by a tax levy on an overexploited and previously unregulated fishery. The analysis is carried out by means of a dynamic model that includes fish stock and harvesting effort as state variables. Attention is focused on the role played by demand elasticity which is shown to affect both transients and equilibria.According to the analysis, a levy induces a contraction in effort, which is sharper in the short term. As a consequence, the fish population recovers and ultimately settles at a higher equilibrium level. Therefore, a larger amount of fish is caught in the long run and sold at a lower price than in the unregulated setting. The more inelastic the demand, the smaller both the equilibrium price for fish and the tax imposed.     

Technological change and fisheries sustainability: The point of view of Adaptive Dynamics

The analysis of a simple model shows that exploitation of fish stocks can entrain in the long run the substantial decline or even the collapse of the stock, as well as difficulties in stock recovery, loss of fishery resilience, and reduction of the mean fish size. The results are in agreement with numerous observations, even though they are obtained with a simple model in which the harvesting fleet and the fish stock are considered as unstructured predator and prey. The study is carried out for the typical case of fleet dimension not too sensitive to the year-to-year fluctuations of the stock and assuming that the sole cause of evolution is technological innovation. The analysis is performed by means of Adaptive Dynamics, an approach born in theoretical biology which is used here in the context of technological change. Although the results are qualitatively consistent with those obtained long ago through the principles of bioeconomics, it is fair to stress that the underlying assumptions are different. In fact, in the bioeconomic approach fleet technology does not evolve and fishing effort varies to produce economic optimization, while in the Adaptive Dynamics approach technological innovation is the key driver. The paper is purely theoretical and the proposed model can hardly be tuned on any real fishery. No practical guidelines for managers can therefore be drawn, if not the general conclusion that long-term sustainability of exploited fish stocks can only be achieved if strategic parameters influencing technological change are kept under strict control.     

Effect of variable fishing strategy on fisheries under changing effort and pressure: An agent-based model application

An agent-based model was used to evaluate the response of a two-species fish community to fishing boat exploration strategies, namely: boats following high-yield boats (Cartesian); boats fishing at random sites (stochast-random); and boats fishing at least exploited sites (stochast-pressure). At low fishing pressure, the stochast-random mode yielded a high average catch per boat while sustaining fish biomass. At high fishing pressure, the Cartesian mode was more effective. For the Cartesian strategy, fish biomass exhibited four distinct behaviors with increasing number of boats. In the first phase, the fish biomass dropped with increasing number of boats due to a corresponding rise in biomass extraction. Rapid exploitation occurred in the second phase, when two or more boats occupied the same initial area, that led to the faster abandonment of those sites which then underwent biomass recovery. In the third phase, adding more boats resulted in a fluctuating stock biomass, where the combined effects of initial spatial distribution of boats and rapid localization led to either full stock recovery when boats were eventually confined to a single location due to spillovers, or stock extirpation when the entire area became fully occupied. Beyond the third phase, stock extirpation was assured. In order to break the pattern of localization (bandwagon effect), we introduced stochast-random intruders in a Cartesian-dominated fishery. Adding a single intruder changed the patchy-structured stock biomass pattern of a purely Cartesian fishery to a uniformly explored stock biomass pattern because of the additional spatial information provided by the intruder. Consequently, the average catch per boat increased but at the expense of a disproportionate decline in equilibrium biomass.     

Optimum size limit for a fishery with a limited fishing season

In the management of a fishery with many year-classes, a standard objective is to maximize the biomass yield. If the fishing effort is fixed, this objective can be attained by prescribing an optimum size limit. This implies that only fish which are larger than the optimum size limit should be caught. The theory for computing the optimum size limit when fishing is carried out continuously is well established. In contrast the theory for computing the optimum size limit when the fishing season is limited to the same period in each year has not been developed in spite of the fact that many fisheries are exploited in this manner. A fishing season may be limited because the weather or the migration patterns of the fish population permits fishing only during a certain period in the year. A fishing season may also be limited because it is necessary to reduce the fishing mortality in order to conserve the fish population.A theory for computing the optimum size limit when the fishing season is limited is developed in this paper. It is applied to a hypothetical fishery. The data for this example comes from the North Sea plaice fishery. It is found that for a given fishing effort the optimum size limit is 44.5 cm if fishing is carried out continuously, 41.3 cm if fishing is limited to 6 months in a year and 28.7 cm if fishing is limited to a period of one tenth of a year in each year.     

Seasonal density dependence, timing of mortality, and sustainable harvesting

Birth-pulse populations are often characterized with discrete-time models, that use a single function to relate the post-breeding population size to the post-breeding size of the previous year. Recently, models of seasonal density dependence have been constructed that emphasize interactions during shorter time periods also. Here, we study two very simple forms of density-dependent mortality, that lead to Ricker and Beverton-Holt type population dynamics when viewed over the whole year. We explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under such density dependence. Whether or not individual mortality compensates for the harvested quota, the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the sustainability of a harvesting quota. Further, we show that careless discretization of a continuous mortality scheme may seriously underestimate the reduction in population size caused by hunting and overestimate the sustainable yield. We also introduce the concept of the demographic value of an individual, which reflects the expected contribution to population size over time in the presence of density dependence. Finally, we discuss the possibility of calculating demographic values as means of optimizing harvest strategies. Here, a Pareto optimal harvest strategy will minimize the loss of demographic value from the population for a given yield.     

Vaquita Bycatch in Mexico's Artisanal Gillnet Fisheries: Driving a Small Population to Extinction

Abstract: The world's most endangered marine cetacean, the vaquita (   Phocoena sinus ), continues to be caught in small-mesh gillnet fisheries throughout much of its range. We monitored fishing effort and incidental vaquita mortality in the upper Gulf of California, Mexico, from January 1993 to January 1995 to study the magnitude and causes of the incidental take. Of those factors studied, including net mesh size, soaktime, and geographic area, none contributed significantly to the incidental mortality rate of the vaquita, implying that the principal cause of mortality is fishing with gillnets per se . The total estimated incidental mortality caused by the fleet of El Golfo de Santa Clara was 39 vaquitas per year (95% CI = 14, 93), over 17% of the most recent estimate of population size. El Golfo de Santa Clara is one of three main ports that support gillnet fisheries throughout the range of the vaquita. Preliminary results indicate that fishing effort for San Felipe, Baja California, is comparable to that of El Golfo de Santa Clara, suggesting that this estimate of incidental mortality of vaquitas represents a minimum. We strongly recommend a complete and permanent ban on gillnets in the area. Alternative or supplemental mitigation strategies include (1) a maximum annual allowable mortality limit of vaquitas; (2) mandatory observer coverage of all boats fishing within the Upper Gulf of California and Colorado River Delta Biosphere Reserve; (3) extension of the Upper Gulf of California and Colorado River Delta Biosphere Reserve to encompass all known vaquita habitat; (4) rigorous enforcement of new and existing regulations; and (5) development of alternative sources of income for gillnet fishers.     

The application of a multiple-recapture technique for the study of some aspects of dynamics of large fish populations

The multiple-recapture technique can be used to study some aspects of the dynamics of large fish populations, if a part of the fishing fleet is considered as experimental fishing boats by appointing obserers to release tagged fish which are captured, while untagged fish captured are retained. The tagged and untagged populations are assumed to have different properties such as catchability and survival rates. The fish are sampled during a number of sampling surveys with equal duration and no intervening time intervals between them. It is assumed that fish suffer from mortalities during sampling surveys. The parameters of untagged populations can be estimated with the help of the readily estimated parameters of tagged fish (Rafail, 1972), the relationship between the parameters of tagged and untagged populations, and the numbers of untagged fish captured during the sampling surveys. The estimates are free from Types A and B tagging errors.     

Fishing as a Supergame

This paper considers how cooperative solutions to games of sharing fish resources can be supported by threat strategies. With highly mobile fish stocks, the number of agents compatible with a cooperative self-enforcing solution is not very high for reasonable values of the discount rate, but sensitive to changes in the discount rate and costs and to cost heterogeneity. With migrating stocks, where growth and reproduction depend on how much all agents leave behind after harvesting, the likelihood of a cooperative, self-enforcing equilibrium is increased. With a dominant player and a competitive fringe the rents and optimum stock level of the dominant player fall quickly as the share of the competitive fringe increases.     

Ecological and economic considerations on fishing and rearing of Tapes phillipinarum in the lagoon of Venice

A population dynamic model for Tapes philippinarum has been developed, using experimental data for the estimation of mortality, and literature information for recruitment. The population dynamic model has been coupled to a eco-physiological model of T. philippinarum previously developed, in order to simulate the evolution of individual size and number of individuals in each age class.The resulting age-size class model has been used to analyse the implication of different scenarios of fishing/harvesting of the bivalve in the lagoons of the Northern Adriatic Sea, where fishery and aquaculture represent important economic activities.Ten years long simulations have been performed, in which initial density, harvesting efficiency, minimum harvested size, were varied. Comparisons between the different strategies are made in term of total yields and bio-economic income. The model gives suggestions on the optimal fishing effort, in case of fishery, and on optimal seeding size and seeding moment, in case of aquaculture.A discussion of model results provides indications on harvesting policies which are appropriate from ecological-economical point of view. The final result is that economically more profitable strategies coincide with ecologically more conservative policies.     

Exploiting sea otter populations: A simulation analysis

We used a Leslie matrix population model to investigate the impact of a range of harvest rates proposed for Alaskan sea otters (Enhydra lutris). The simulation included an analysis of several population mechanisms that might be important in the natural regulation of sea otter populations or in their reactions to harvesting. Significant differences in equilibrium population levels were found between compensatory mechanisms when fixed harvest rates were applied for 25-year periods. Adult harvests set at 2 and 4% of the total population showed that new stable population levels were rapidly attained. Harvest rates of 8 and 10%, however, resulted in marked population declines in simulated harvests. This analysis demonstrates that limited harvesting can be sustained by the population and that otter population compensation responses will be a critical determinant of sustainable harvest rates of sea otter populations.     

Modeling effects of toxin exposure in fish on long-term population size, with an application to selenium toxicity in bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus)

A primary goal in ecotoxicology is the prediction of population-level effects of contaminant exposure based on individual-level response. Assessment of toxicity at the population level has predominately focused on the population growth rate (PGR), but the PGR may not be a relevant toxicological endpoint for populations at equilibrium. Equilibrium population size may be a more meaningful endpoint than the PGR because a population with smaller equilibrium size is more susceptible to the negative effects of environmental variability. We address the individual-to-population extrapolation problem with modeling utilizing classical mathematical theory. We developed and analyzed a general model applicable to many freshwater fish species, that includes density-dependent juvenile survival and additional juvenile mortality due to toxicity exposure, and we quantified effect on equilibrium population size as a means of assessing toxicity. Individual-level effects are typically greater than population-level effects until the individual effect is large, due to compensatory density-dependent relationships. These effects are sensitive to the recruitment potential of a population, in particular the low-density first-year survival rate S_b. Assuming high S_b could result in underestimating effects of population-level toxicity. The equilibrium size depends directly on S_b, the reproductive potential, the toxin concentration at which mean mortality is 50% (LC₅₀), and the rate at which individual mortality increases with increasing toxin concentration. More experimental data are needed to decrease the uncertainty in estimating these parameters. We then used existing data for selenium toxicity in bluegill sunfish to parameterize a simulation version of the model as an example to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on toxicity response. Effects of environmental variability resulted in simulated extinctions at much lower toxin concentrations than predicted deterministically.     

An experimental evaluation of transgenerational isotope labelling in a coral reef grouper

Transgenerational isotope labelling (TRAIL) using enriched stable isotopes provides a novel means of mass-marking marine fish larvae and estimating larval dispersal. The technique, therefore, provides a new way of addressing questions about demographic population connectivity and larval export from no-take marine protected areas. However, successful field applications must be preceded by larval rearing studies that validate the geochemical marking technique, determine appropriate concentrations and demonstrate that larvae are not adversely affected. Here, we test whether injection of enriched stable barium isotopes (¹³⁵Ba and ¹³⁷Ba) at two dose rates produces unequivocal marks on the otoliths of the coral reef grouper Epinephelus fuscoguttatus. We also assess potential negative effects on reproductive performance, egg size, condition and larval growth due to injection of adult female fish. The injection of barium isotopes at both 0.5 and 2.0 mg Ba/kg body weight into the body cavities of gravid female fish was 100% successful in the geochemical tagging of the otoliths of larvae from the first spawning after injection. The low-dose rate produced no negative effects on eggs or larvae. However, the higher dose rate of 2 mg Ba/kg produced small reductions in yolk sac area, oil globule area, standard length and head depth of pre-feeding larvae. Given the success of the 0.5 mg Ba/kg dose rate, it is clearly possible to produce a reliable mark and keep the concentration below any level that could affect larval growth or survival. Hence, enriched Ba isotope injections will provide an effective means of mass-marking grouper larvae.     

Risk-Based Viable Population Monitoring

Abstract:  We describe risk-based viable population monitoring, in which the monitoring indicator is a yearly prediction of the probability that, within a given timeframe, the population abundance will decline below a prespecified level. Common abundance-based monitoring strategies usually have low power to detect declines in threatened and endangered species and are largely reactive to declines. Comparisons of the population's estimated risk of decline over time will help determine status in a more defensible manner than current monitoring methods. Monitoring risk is a more proactive approach; critical changes in the population's status are more likely to be demonstrated before a devastating decline than with abundance-based monitoring methods. In this framework, recovery is defined not as a single evaluation of long-term viability but as maintaining low risk of decline for the next several generations. Effects of errors in risk prediction techniques are mitigated through shorter prediction intervals, setting threshold abundances near current abundance, and explicitly incorporating uncertainty in risk estimates. Viable population monitoring also intrinsically adjusts monitoring effort relative to the population's true status and exhibits considerable robustness to model misspecification. We present simulations showing that risk predictions made with a simple exponential growth model can be effective monitoring indicators for population dynamics ranging from random walk to density dependence with stable, decreasing, or increasing equilibrium. In analyses of time-series data for five species, risk-based monitoring warned of future declines and demonstrated secure status more effectively than statistical tests for trend.     

Harvesting in an eight-species ecosystem

The theory for a general equilibrium ecosystem model that can include large number of interacting species is presented. Features include: (1) individual plants and animals are assumed to behave as if they are maximizing their net energy intake, (2) short- and long-run equilibriums are obtained, (3) species’ population adjustments depend on individual net energies. The theory is applied using simulations of an eight-species Alaskan marine ecosystem for which a “natural” equilibrium is calculated. Humans are introduced by adding a regulated open access fishery that harvests one of the species. Fishing impacts the fish population as well as the populations of other species, including Stellar sea lions, an endangered species. The sensitivity of fish and nonfish species populations to harvesting are calculated.     

Shifts in a Pacific Ocean Fish Assemblage: the Potential Influence of Exploitation

Abstract:  As in many regions of the world, marine fishes and invertebrates along the Pacific coast of the United States have long been subjected to overexploitation. Despite this history, however, we lack basic information on the current status of many fishes along this coastline. We used data from a quarter century of fishery-independent, coast-wide trawl surveys to study systematically the demersal fish assemblages along the U.S. Pacific coast. We documented fundamental shifts in this fish assemblage. Average fish size, across a diversity of species, has declined 45% in 21 years. There have been major shifts in the constituent species of the assemblage, with some species achieving annual population growth rates of >10% and others declining in excess of 10% per year. Annual rate of change in population size appeared to be a function of life history interacting with fishing pressure. Negative trends in population size were particularly apparent in rockfish ( Sebastes spp.). However, across all taxa examined, trends in population size were associated with size of maturity, maximum size, and growth rate. Trends in population size were associated inversely with harvest levels, but stocks that mature late tended to decline faster than would be predicted by catch rates alone. Our results are disquieting because they raise the possibility that fishing-induced phase shifts in fish communities may affect the recovery of fishes, even after the implementation of severe fishing restrictions.     

Externalities, Market Power, and Resource Extraction

This article analyzes the effect of market power in the presence of dynamic and biological externalities. When several countries harvest fish in international waters the evolution of fish population is affected by their joint action, thus generating a biological and a dynamic externality. If there is trade, the market-clearing prices depend on the harvesting and consumption in all countries. Therefore, market-clearing prices also generate an externality. We find a subgame perfect Cournot–Nash equilibrium and study the conditions under which it may be efficient. We also analyze the role of different externalities in generating inefficiency.     

Robust population management under uncertainty for structured population models.

Structured population models are increasingly used in decision making, but typically have many entries that are unknown or highly uncertain. We present an approach for the systematic analysis of the effect of uncertainties on long-term population growth or decay. Many decisions for threatened and endangered species are made with poor or no information. We can still make decisions under these circumstances in a manner that is highly defensible, even without making assumptions about the distribution of uncertainty, or limiting ourselves to discussions of single, infinitesimally small changes in the parameters. Suppose that the model (determined by the data) for the population in question predicts long-term growth. Our goal is to determine how uncertain the data can be before the model loses this property. Some uncertainties will maintain long-term growth, and some will lead to long-term decay. The uncertainties are typically structured, and can be described by several parameters. We show how to determine which parameters maintain long-term growth. We illustrate the advantages of the method by applying it to a Peregrine Falcon population. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently decided to allow minimal harvesting of Peregrine Falcons after their recent removal from the Endangered Species List. Based on published demographic rates, we find that an asymptotic growth rate lambda > 1 is guaranteed with 5% harvest rate up to 3% error in adult survival if no two-year-olds breed, and up to 11% error if all two-year-olds breed. If a population growth rate of 3% or greater is desired, the acceptable error in adult survival decreases to between 1% and 6% depending of the proportion of two-year-olds that breed. These results clearly show the interactions between uncertainties in different parameters, and suggest that a harvest decision at this stage may be premature without solid data on adult survival and the frequency of breeding by young adults.     

An Economic Assessment of Wildlife Farming and Conservation

Abstract:  The supply-side approach to conservation, as recommended by economists, prescribes the provision of cheap substitutes for wildlife commodities in an effort to lower the price of such commodities and reduce harvesting pressure. We developed a theoretical economic model to examine whether wildlife farming or ranching indeed contributes to conservation. We first present the naïve economic model that lends support to the supply-side approach. This model is incomplete because it fails to capture the fact that most wildlife markets are not perfectly competitive (instead, models are characterized by a small number of suppliers who have a certain degree of market power), which also implies that it fails to incorporate strategic interaction between suppliers. We then present an alternative model of the (illegal) wildlife trade that reflects imperfect competition and strategic interaction, and demonstrate that wildlife farming may stimulate harvesting (or poaching) rather than discourage it. By applying the model to the case of rhinoceros poaching and ranching, we demonstrate the potentially ambiguous outcomes of rhinoceros-ranching initiatives—wild rhinoceros stocks may recover or suffer from additional depletion, depending on key parameters and the type of competition on output markets. We also show that this type of ambiguity may be eliminated when policy makers restrict quantities of farmed output through a quota system; in that case, introducing wildlife farming will unambiguously promote conservation. In the absence of such accompanying regulation, however, policy makers should be careful when stimulating wildlife farming and be aware of potentially adverse consequences.     

A predator-prey model with satiation and intraspecific competition

We present a new predator-prey model where, except for the prey growth, assumed to be logistic, we endeavor to give some behavioral justification to all elements of the predator-prey interaction. The functional response takes account of predator satiation and predator competition. It is supported by some experimental evidence. We distinguish two contributions to the numerical response: the positive part, proportional to the functional response, is the birth rate of predators; the negative part is the death rate due to hunger.Two outcomes are possible. If the prey are unable to grow fast enough to replace the amount killed by the predators, both species become extinct. In the opposite case, both populations stabilize at a constant population. At this equilibrium level, the prey are not abundant enough to satiate the predators.The predation rate that allows the highest predator population is one half of the ideal prey growth rate. A higher exploitation rate can allow higher populations only temporarily. Evolved predator behavior, reguges for the prey, or other mechanisms can explain this regulation.Two more population behaviors (cycles and predator extinction) can be obtained with a time-lag in one of the responses. This is shown in a separate paper.The model is structurally stable. It can thus withstand small environmental perturbations.     

The impact of detritivorous fishes on a mangrove estuarine system

Sundarban mangrove ecosystem in India is one of the largest detritus based ecosystem of the world and it supplies the detritus and nutrients to the adjacent Hooghly-Matla estuarine complex. In this estuary a group of fish completely detritivorous in nature, belonging to the genus Mugil spp. is present. This group of fish is expected to have important effects on the trophic dynamics of ecosystems, but exact nature of these effects is not known. In order to study the impact that detritivory by fish may have on the estuarine food chain, we developed mathematical formulations. We run two models, one with phytoplankton, zooplankton, carnivorous fish, detritus and nutrient and without this group of fish and a second one after including this fish in the system. In our model this group of fish has no major impact on primary productions of the estuarine system but has extensive role in total fish production. Coexistence of detritivorous fish and carnivorous fish occurs within reasonable parameter range. We have tested different growth rates of phytoplankton, grazing rates and predation rates of zooplankton, detritivorous fish and carnivorous fish for total system equilibrium. Carnivorous fish predation rate on detritivorous fish and detritivorous fish grazing rate on detritus are very important. Different foraging ratios are also tested in this study. Foraging preference of carnivorous fish on detritivorous fish appears significant for the system equilibrium.