Modelling the productivity of naturalised pasture in the North Island,New Zealand: a decision tree approach

Decision tree, one of the data mining methods, has been widely used as a modelling approach and has shown better predictive ability than traditional approaches (e.g. regression). However, very little is known from the literature about how the decision tree performs in predicting pasture productivity. In this study, decision tree models were developed to investigate and predict the annual and seasonal productivity of naturalised hill-pasture in the North Island, New Zealand, and were compared with regression models with respect to model fit, validation and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that the decision tree models for annual and seasonal pasture productivity all had a smaller average squared error (ASE) and a higher percentage of correctly predicted cases than the corresponding regression models. The decision tree model for annual pasture productivity had an ASE which was only half of that of the regression model, and correctly predicted 90% of the cases in the model validation which was 10.8 percentage points higher than that of the regression model. Furthermore, the decision tree models for annual and seasonal pasture productivity also clearly revealed the relative importance of environmental and management variables in influencing pasture productivity, and the interaction among these variables. Spring rainfall was the most significant factor influencing annual pasture productivity, while hill slope was the most significant factor influencing spring and winter pasture productivity, and annual P fertiliser input and autumn rainfall were the most significant factors influencing summer and autumn pasture productivity. One limitation of using the decision tree to predict pasture productivity was that it did not generate a continuous prediction, and thus could not detect the influence of small changes in environmental and management variables on pasture productivity.     

喀斯特地区长期草地利用制度对群落稳定性的影响

草地利用方式和混播组合对群落特性的长期影响不同。利用方式对白三叶（Trifolium repens）盖度没有显著影响,而混播组合与利用方式的交互作用影响显著。白三叶在宿营处理和刈割为主利用下的与鸭茅（Dactylis glomerata）混播中的比例最低,而在刈割利用和宿营处理的多年生黑麦草（Lolium perenne）组合中的盖度最高。混播组合对禾本科组分盖度影响不显著,但利用方式和交互作用有显著的作用,长期放牧绵羊的混播草地多年生黑麦草很少。混播组合对杂草密度、盖度和多样性指数的影响不明显,而利用方式和交互作用显著地影响杂草盖度和多样性指数。放牧草地中的杂草密度高于刈割草地的,其中放牧利用的白三叶/多年生黑麦草草地最高。放牧牛的草地杂草密度较少,而放牧绵羊的草地杂草较多。白三叶、禾本科牧草以及杂草的密度都显著地受混播组合、利用方式及其交互作用的影响,说明密度是一个敏感的指标。     

喀斯特地区长期草地利用制度对群落稳定性的影响

草地利用方式和混播组合对群落特性的长期影响不同。利用方式对白三叶(Trifolium repens)盖度没有显著影响,而混播组合与利用方式的交互作用影响显著。白三叶在宿营处理和刈割为主利用下的与鸭茅(Dactylis glomerata)混播中的比例最低,而在刈割利用和宿营处理的多年生黑麦草(Lolium perenne)组合中的盖度最高。混播组合对禾本科组分盖度影响不显著,但利用方式和交互作用有显著的作用,长期放牧绵羊的混播草地多年生黑麦草很少。混播组合对杂草密度、盖度和多样性指数的影响不明显,而利用方式和交互作用显著地影响杂草盖度和多样性指数。放牧草地中的杂草密度高于刈割草地的,其中放牧利用的白三叶/多年生黑麦草草地最高。放牧牛的草地杂草密度较少,而放牧绵羊的草地杂草较多。白三叶、禾本科牧草以及杂草的密度都显著地受混播组合、利用方式及其交互作用的影响,说明密度是一个敏感的指标。     

Multi-model analysis of tree competition along environmental gradients in southern New England forests.

Robust predictions of competitive interactions among canopy trees and variation in tree growth along environmental gradients represent key challenges for the management of mixed-species, uneven-aged forests. We analyzed the effects of competition on tree growth along environmental gradients for eight of the most common tree species in southern New England and southeastern New York using forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data, information theoretic decision criteria, and multi-model inference to evaluate models. The suite of models estimated growth of individual trees as a species-specific function of average potential diameter growth, tree diameter at breast height, local environmental conditions, and crowding by neighboring trees. We used ordination based on the relative basal area of species to generate a measure of site conditions in each plot. Two ordination axes were consistent with variation in species abundance along moisture and fertility gradients. Estimated potential growth varied along at least one of these axes for six of the eight species; peak relative abundance of less shade-tolerant species was in all cases displaced away from sites where they showed maximum potential growth. Our crowding functions estimate the strength of competitive effects of neighbors; only one species showed support for the hypothesis that all species of competitors have equivalent effects on growth. The relative weight of evidence (Akaike weights) for the best models varied from a low of 0.207 for Fraxinus americana to 0.747 for Quercus rubra. In such cases, model averaging provides a more robust platform for prediction than that based solely on the best model. We show that predictions based on the selected best models dramatically overestimated differences between species relative to predictions based on the averaged set of models.     

Control division of agricultural non-point source pollution at medium-sized watershed scale in Southeast China

This paper presents the study carried out for controlling agricultural non-point source pollution (NSP) in a medium-sized watershed covering 1.47 × 10⁴ km² in Southeast China using quantitative analysis coupled with geographic information system (GIS), universal soil loss equation (USLE), soil conservation service-curve number (SCS-CN), nutrient loss equations, and annualized agricultural nonpoint source model (AnnAGNPS). Based on the quantitative results derived from GIS and environmental models, five control division units were generated for NSP control in Jiulong River watershed, namely, controlling unit for soil losses, controlling unit for livestock breeding and soil losses, controlling unit for excessive fertilizer use and livestock breeding, controlling unit for soil losses and fertilizer use, and controlling unit for excessive fertilizer use and soil losses. This study proved that integrating GIS with environmental models can be adopted to efficiently evaluate major sources and contributors of NSP, and identify the critical source areas of NSP, which enables adjusting measures to local conditions by further control division units developed through such study for control and management of water quality degradation induced by NSP in the Jiulong River watershed.     

Examination of conflicts and improved strategies for the management of an endangered Eucalypt species using Bayesian networks

Bayesian decision support tools are becoming increasingly popular as a modelling framework that can analyse complex problems, resolve controversies, and support future decision-making in an adaptive management framework. This paper introduces a model designed to assist the management of an endangered Eucalypt species, the Swamp Gum (Eucalyptus camphora). This tree species is found in the Yellingbo Nature Conservation Reserve (YNCR), an isolated patch of forest in the Yarra Valley (Victoria, Australia), where E. camphora has become increasingly threatened by dieback. In order to maintain and rehabilitate existing trees and encourage regeneration, management strategies and action plans have concentrated on restoring the hydrological regime, which has been altered due to agricultural activities within the catchment. However, research suggests that nutrient enrichment from surrounding horticulture and livestock is having a greater impact on the health of the trees. A Bayesian network model has been developed for E. camphora and used to explore the differences between these two hypotheses. Model outputs suggest that the influencing factors of E. camphora condition are (a) spatially specific and (b) differ according to the group conducting the study in the YNCR. Given the poor quality of data and knowledge available, further research is required to identify the causal factors of dieback. The model offers a framework to guide future integrative and iterative monitoring and research in the YNCR.     

磷肥和黑麦草结合修复铅污染贫磷潮土的研究（Remediation of Lead Polluted Chaotu Soil with Low Phosphorus Availability by Phosphorus Fertilizer Amendment and Ryegrass）

在Pb污染土壤中施用磷肥是降低Pb有效性的有效方法.在低磷或高Pb胁迫下,植物根际的一系列变化将促进植物对磷的吸收或对Pb毒性的降低,但低磷胁迫下植物对土壤Pb有效性的影响研究不多.为探讨Pb污染低磷土壤上施用磷肥对Pb有效性、植物吸收Pb的影响及黑麦草(LoliumperenneL.)对土壤Pb有效性的影响,设置0、500和1000mg·kg-13个Pb用量和0、2729mg·kg-1两个普通过磷酸钙磷肥用量,种植黑麦草,0和1000mg·kg-1Pb下设置不种植植物的对照的盆栽试验,植物生长48d后收获,测定植物地上部和根系产量、长度、Pb浓度及土壤DTPA-Pb含量.结果表明,施用磷肥后植物产量和地上部长度增加、根冠比、根系长度和Pb浓度减小,500mg·kg-1Pb用量时,未施用磷肥和施用磷肥时植物产量分别为0.37和1.70g·pot-1,1000mg·kg-1Pb用量时这两个数值分别为0.24和1.50g·pot-1,500mg·kg-1Pb用量时,植物产量与未施Pb处理(产量为0.75g·pot-1)差异显著(p<0.05);施用磷肥后,地上部吸收的Pb的比例和植物体吸收的Pb数量均增加.1000mg·kg-1Pb用量下,植物产量、地上部长度均小于500mg·kg-1Pb用量处理时的水平,而土壤DTPA-Pb浓度、植物Pb浓度、Pb吸收量均大于500mg·kg-1Pb处理,表明2729mg·kg-1普通过磷酸钙用量并不能完全抵消1000mg·kg-1Pb对植物生长的抑制作用.施用磷肥降低了土壤DTPA-Pb含量,但500mg·kg-1Pb用量时降低效果不显著(p>0.05).0mg·kg-1Pb用量下,种植植物的处理土壤DTPA-Pb含量比未种植植物处理高54.3%;1000mg·kg-1Pb处理时,种植植物处理土壤DTPA-Pb含量比未种植植物平均低18.5%.以上结果表明,在0mg·kg-1Pb用量下,植物生长受到了一定程度的磷胁迫.在磷胁迫下,种植植物提高了土壤Pb有效性,而在1000mg·kg-1Pb用量下,不管是否施用磷肥,种植植物均降低了土壤Pb有效性.本研究结果表明,在低磷和高Pb胁迫下,施用水溶性磷肥可降低土壤Pb有效性,促进黑麦草生长,促进Pb向植物地上部转移;在低磷胁迫且无Pb污染条件下,黑麦草对土壤Pb的有效性表现为促进;在高Pb胁迫下,不管是否施用磷肥,黑麦草均可降低土壤Pb有效性.     

Modelling the movement and survival of the root-feeding clover weevil,Sitona lepidus,in the root-zone of white clover

White clover (Trifolium repens) is an important pasture legume but is often difficult to sustain in a mixed sward because, among other things, of the damage to roots caused by the soil-dwelling larval stages of S. lepidus. Locating the root nodules on the white clover roots is crucial for the survival of the newly hatched larvae. This paper presents a numerical model to simulate the movement of newly hatched S. lepidus larvae towards the root nodules, guided by a chemical signal released by the nodules. The model is based on the diffusion–chemotaxis equation. Experimental observations showed that the average speed of the larvae remained approximately constant, so the diffusion–chemotaxis model was modified so that the larvae respond only to the gradient direction of the chemical signal but not its magnitude. An individual-based lattice Boltzmann method was used to simulate the movement of individual larvae, and the parameters required for the model were estimated from the measurement of larval movement towards nodules in soil scanned using X-ray microtomography. The model was used to investigate the effects of nodule density, the rate of release of chemical signal, the sensitivity of the larvae to the signal, and the random foraging of the larvae on the movement and subsequent survival of the larvae. The simulations showed that the most significant factors for larval survival were nodule density and the sensitivity of the larvae to the signal. The dependence of larval survival rate on nodule density was well fitted by the Michealis–Menten kinetics.     

Analyzing and modelling spatial distribution of summering lesser kestrel: The role of spatial autocorrelation

In modelling spatial distribution of species, ignoring spatial autocorrelation (SA) and multicollinearity may lead to false ecological conclusions. Here we take into account both issues for examining and modelling the spatial pattern of abundance of the globally threatened lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni) during summer in a 38,400 ha area of northwestern Spain where large premigratory aggregations of the species occur. Spatial pattern was examined using Moran's correlogram, and models were built including geographical coordinates and autocovariate terms (which account for SA) in generalized linear models (GLM) and hierarchical partitioning (HP) models. HP models allow to alleviate multicollinearity. A grid-based approach was used by dividing the study area in 24 contiguous 4 km × 4 km squares where birds were counted in 2–3 visits per square (response variable). Environmental coarse-grained variables were extracted from a geographic information system (GIS) at three spatial extents. Moran's correlogram showed that lesser kestrel mean abundance per square was spatially autocorrelated up to 4–8 km. The results from both GLM and HP analyses were roughly compatible. The GLM models explained 80.0% of the variation in kestrel abundance and were the same at the three spatial extents. Lesser Kestrel abundance was not significantly explained by landscape variables, but was negatively related to both the distance to the nearest communal roost and distance to the nearest breeding colony with more of 10 breeding pairs of lesser kestrel. An autocovariate term added later in the GLM models improved both their explanatory power (from 74.5 to 80.0%) and model residuals, which were not longer spatially autocorrelated, fulfilling thus the statistical assumption of independent errors. Findings suggest that the spatial distribution of abundance of summering lesser kestrel is, at least, partially driven by endogenous causes, such as conspecific attraction. Exogenous causes such as finer-scale variables (e.g. type of crops and food available) are yet likely needed for lesser kestrel-environment relationships.     

温度变化对磷在水稻土肥际微域中迁移和转化的影响

以湖北潜江水稻土为研究对象，研究了温度变化对所施磷肥在水稻土肥际微域迁移转化的影响。实验采用室内土柱培养法，将磷酸二氢铵单施或与草酸配施后置于5℃、20℃和35℃的温度条件下，分别培养60 d或120 d后，对水稻土肥际微域内水溶性磷、有效磷及酸溶性磷的含量和分布进行了研究。结果表明：不同形态磷在水稻土肥际微域中的迁移距离均较短，单施磷酸二氢铵在5℃和20℃下肥际微域中不同形态磷迁移距离相近，均为50 mm左右，培养时间延长对迁移距离无显著影响，但在这两种培养温度下配施草酸时随着培养时间的延长，磷的迁移距离有所增加。当温度进一步升高至35℃时，配施草酸与否磷的迁移距离均比中低温条件下迁移距离减小，仅为42.5 mm左右。肥际微域中水溶性磷、有效磷和酸溶性磷含量均随着距施肥点距离的增加而显著降低。随着培养温度的升高，肥际微域水溶性磷和有效磷含量和累积量逐渐减少，但酸溶性磷含量基本呈增加趋势。同一温度下，随培养时间延长，各形态磷含量和累积量也逐渐减少。不同温度下配施草酸均能增加肥际微域内水溶性磷和有效磷的累积量。但是随着温度升高，配施草酸与否施磷后肥际微域水溶性磷和有效磷含量和累积量均有显著下降，表明温度升高施入土壤的磷的有效性下降，配施草酸对于减缓升温对磷的固定没有明显影响，但是同一温度下配施草酸可以增加肥际微域水溶性磷和有效磷的含量和累积量。肥际微域可以作为研究磷肥施入土壤后迁移转化及有效性变化的窗口，但是肥际微域中磷的变化对土体磷植物有效性的影响程度还需要进一步通过小区或大田试验进行研究。