Identifying future scenarios and their implications for transport policy

Scenario analysis is a technique that is increasingly being used as a way of identifying future policy options and issues in the long-term. This paper discusses the role of scenario analysis in policy development in relation to future transport policy. It discusses three key stages in scenario analysis: the identification of policy targets; the development of images of the future; and the construction of policy packages.     

Sustainability of Nations

SUMMARY

A method is presented to interrelate the development of economy, environment and social quality in communities. Economy and environment, in initial development stages, oppose each other. Social welfare and economy generally develop simultaneously. To assess overall progress in sustainable development, an integrated and quantifiable framework is presented which defines five levels of sustainability. Increasing sustainability is characterized by growing responsibility for the impacts of man's actions in space and time. Through increased eco-efficiency and changed awareness, nations and companies arrive at a synergistic relationship between environment and economy. It is indicated that social security benefits expenditure increases by a factor 3.5 and carbon dioxide emissions per capita decreases by a factor 3 at each higher level of sustainability. Quantified differences in sustainability levels of 24 nations are shown. Priorities for improving and safeguarding sustainability are indicated.     

The specification of sustainable urban transport strategies

Transport strategies have been developed for nine European cities to achieve optimum performance in terms of a range of objective functions. The functions selected represent economic efficiency, sustainability and a combination of these. The strategies have been based on combinations of a standard set of policy instruments, including public transport infrastructure, frequency and fares, road capacity increases, low cost road pricing and parking charges. The optimisation method is described, and results presented. The reactions of city authorities to the proposed strategies are discussed and implications for transport policy outlined.     

Visions for the future of transport: Approaching consensus?

Many cities and national authorities have made substantial progress in developing transport strategies to reconcile environmental pressures with the increasing demand for travel. However, there is still some doubt as to what are the key ingredients of a successful strategy and progress in implementing such changes has been slow. Research is needed to better understand what are the essential ingredients to a balanced transport policy, the constraints, which are preventing these from being implemented, and the acceptability of such changes. This paper reports on the outcomes of a project funded under the Rees Jeffreys Road Fund research programme 'From Realism to Reality', which aims to identify the elements necessary for a successful transport policy in the UK into the 21st century, The project seeks to develop a vision for the transport system of the future through an understanding of the extent of the current problems in the transport sector and an examination of the range and effectiveness of options and instruments available to resolve them. The paper examines a range of visions that are currently in the public domain. Results show that there is a degree of consistency in the general aims and objectives of such visions, but that there is rather less consensus in the means proposed to achieve those aims.     

Raising awareness of transport issues: The potential to bring about behavioural change?

Changes in the directions of transport policy in the UK in the last few years have led to a wider consideration of possible measures to bring about behavioural change, in particular measures which have the potential to reduce car dependence. Among the measures currently being implemented by local authorities are public awareness or travel awareness campaigns. This paper examines the findings of a research project which evaluated a travel awareness scheme in the context of an integrated transport policy. The research project monitored the attitudes, beliefs and intentions of a sample of the residents who had been targeted by the Maidstone Initiative for Sustainable Transport (MIST) implemented by Kent County Council and Maidstone Borough Council. The research project found some remarkably consistent attitudes about car and bus travel over a period of three years, It also found that whilst people seem to be aware of the impact of travel on the environment they do not consider the environmental impact with the same degree of importance as other attributes of travel. A further finding was a hidden desire to switch modes from the car. The paper will conclude by looking critically at the future for travel awareness campaigns.     

Defining and achieving sustainable development

SUMMARY

This paper analyses the fundamental problems of defining and achieving sustainable development. A common core of the various definitions of sustainability circulating is identified. Economic and scientific approaches to operationalize sustainability generally lead to management rules, which — if obeyed — should guarantee sustainability. Since it is not possible to precisely predict the future, this scientific—technical—economic route to sustainability may fail. A second, ethical way, to sustainability which interprets sustainability as an ideal for fair play is introduced. How the two different ways may complement one another with a three-step hierarchy of political goals is elucidated.     

Is the economic dimension inducing the other sustainability dimensions,or is it the reverse? Perceptions from the Portuguese metal industry

ABSTRACT

In organizational sustainability, the economic dimension is recognized as having a very important role. However, the discussion regarding whether it is exclusively the economic dimension that has the power to induce the other sustainability dimensions is far from agreement. The purpose of the present paper is to analyze the perceptions regarding the existence of mutual influences between the economic dimension of sustainability and the other sustainability dimensions – environmental, social and cultural – in a relevant Portuguese economic sector: the metal industry. The analysis and statistical tests performed with the 211 collected answers led to the conclusion that the influence exerted by the economic dimension on the other sustainability dimensions is perceived as dominant, both in present and future perspectives. The results also show the perception that the economic dimension is equally influenced by the environmental and social dimensions, and in a less extent, by the cultural dimension, and that all these mutual influences are perceived to increase in the future. The existence of organizational management systems has a positive effect on the perceptions regarding the existence of mutual influences between sustainability dimensions, but only for those companies with more than one certified management system. These results confirm that organizational management systems are connected to higher degrees of awareness regarding sustainability issues. Given that the great majority of the sampled industries are SMEs, the results obtained in this research demonstrate that the existence of mutual influences between sustainability dimensions is recognized even in small-sized industries.     

Meeting report

SUMMARY

In many developing countries, the determination of a ranking of investments designed to improve and extend the road system is a commonplace prerequisite of planning for the transport sector as a whole and the road sub-sector within it. A major objective of determining investment priorities is to secure the greatest efficiency in the use of resources allocated to the sector and, for this reason, any system of assigning priorities must rely upon conventional investment appraisal techniques producing quantifiable measures of worth. Exercises of this kind, in which road investments are identified and ranked, are usually undertaken to produce a road sector investment plan. The implementation of such plans is, however, often compromised because of perceived deficiencies with a methodology which places undue reliance on investment appraisal and fails to properly address the issue of public interest and sustainability. This paper attempts to produce a pragmatic set of ground rules which, while mindful of the need to promote economic efficiency, allow for other factors to be embraced in a more holistic methodology.     

Framing the search for a theory of land use

ABSTRACT

Land system science and affiliated research linked to sustainability require improved understanding and theorization of land and its change as a social-ecological system (SES). The absence of a general land-use theory, anchored in the social subsystem but with explicit links to the environmental subsystem, hampers this effort. Drawing on land-use explanations, meta-analyses, and associated frameworks, we advance a broad framework structure of eight elements – aggregations of explanatory variables – with links to the biophysical subsystem, for systematic comparisons of extant explanations. Tests and models can be employed to identify which set of variables and their configurations provide robust explanations of across land uses, identifying the potential for theory development. The framework and its application are applicable to both top-down and bottom-up explanatory approaches employed in the social sciences. Links to the environmental subsystem invite future exploration of SES explanations that reach across the different dimensions of global change and sustainability science.     

Measuring sustainable development - the creative economy perspective

ABSTRACT

World literature presents a variety of approaches to measuring the creative economy at global, national and regional levels, but so far not enough attention has been paid to the issue of sustainability of creative economies. Creative economies do not rely heavily on natural resources which means that their negative impact on the climate is relatively weaker than in the case of other industries. The measurement of sustainable development is an important contribution to the overall efforts in fighting the climate change. Statistical figures show that the share of the creative economy in GDP of the most developed countries is steadily increasing. Therefore, it is legitimate to analyse the sustainable development issues not only through the lenses of utilization of natural resources and environmental issues but also to look at the sustainability challenge for the creative economies. The growth of creative industries may be hindered by scarcity and improper utilization of resouces, but the main threat to the sustainability is the scarcity of intangible resources and goods such as ideas, freedom of thought, leadership, tolerance, quality of education, etc. Based on a literature review, we endeavoured to investigate the sustainability issues which are relevant specifically for the creative economy. In particular, we were interested in the role of local government in supporting the growth of creative economies. This study contributes to the literature in the sense that it provides understanding on how to assess the impact of local government on the sustainability of creative economy.     

Modeling a sustainable Saudi Arabian economy: the real issues

This paper develops a macroeconomic framework for creating a competitive and sustainable Saudi Arabian economy, taking into account the interrelationships among social, environmental, and economic factors. The objective of the research is to build a model that will allow for evaluating the effects of a wide range of emissions abatement policies on economic growth and development. The research methodology is grounded in econometric modeling of the Saudi economy over the period 1980–2010. The estimated parameters of the model were used to project long-term gross domestic product (GDP) growth paths based on three environmental degradation abatement scenarios. The results suggest that the sustainability of economic growth in Saudi Arabia critically depends on aggressive emissions-reduction policies since policy scenarios corresponding to higher pollution cuts yielded higher, sustained long-term GDP. The results also broadly reject the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, implying that a turning point in the relationship between CO₂ emissions and per capita GDP is yet to be attained.     

Resource-based cities (RBC): a road to sustainability

Resource-based cities (RBC) have made momentous contributions to urbanization in China. However, as natural resources are exhausted, RBC are facing an enormous challenge. In this paper we put forward a resource-based city sustainability index (RCSI) and a resource-based city coordination index (RCCI), including environmental, social, and economic dimensions, adopted three weight scenarios, and selected 13 cities for study. The results: (a) help locate the problems by analyzing both dimensions and indicators; (b) simulate the trends of how RBC emerged, grew, declined, and regenerated; (c) categorize RBC into four types by integrating RCSI and RCCI; (d) give policy makers a holistic and comprehensive perspective in the future urban regulation and management; and (e) highlight a road to sustainability.     

Comparative aspects of mountain land resources management and sustainability: Case studies from India and Canada

India and Canada share a common heritage in natural resources management. Both have a colonial background, settlers and indigenous peoples; there is a history of management agencies with utilitarian attitudes, and a history of treating public lands as commodities for commerce rather than as resources for local livelihoods. This historical context guided the overall goal of this study, which was policy development for the sustainable use of mountain environments. Interviews, workshops and seminars were held with local people and resource management professionals in a comparative case study in two regions; the Kullu area in Himachal Pradesh, India and the Arrow Lakes area in British Columbia, Canada. The paper is organized around two main objectives of the work relating to the successes and failures of mountain environment resource management policies and the development of criteria for assessing and monitoring sustainability in mountain environments, in particular, criteria for examining relevant crosscultural dimensions of sustainable development in these environments. By way of conclusion the paper considers further ways in which traditional resource policy development and implementation is being challenged by changing values and priorities; ecosystems management with people; and co-management and public participation.     

On sustainability and social welfare

This paper proposes to define sustainability in terms of leaving it possible for future generations to sustain certain defined targets. It is shown that variants of genuine savings and the ecological footprint can then serve as indicators of sustainability. The link between sustainability and intergenerational welfare is examined, and it is shown how to incorporate indicators of sustainability into a social welfare measure, including risk in the analysis.     

Sustainable development indicators: a case study on the city of Flagstaff and Coconino county

The application of capitalist theory and the perception of an autonomous economy have created a range of environmental and social ramifications not addressed via traditional economic reasoning. In order to effectively and efficiently abate sustainability issues, the sustainable development discourse developed evaluation methods such as sustainable development indicators to gauge progress towards sustainability in communities without using traditional cost–benefit methods of analysis. The indicators created in this work are intended to be applied as a method of project evaluation in local community development departments. Using local growth management policy as a basis, these indicators have been designed to show how a development project contributes to policy goals that relate to all three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, economic, and socio-economic.     

PICABUE: a methodological framework for the development of indicators of sustainable development

SUMMARY

Significant interest in the concept of sustainable development exists amongst scientists, planners, policy makers and the public, and considerable effort and expenditure is made or envisaged at local, national and international levels to promote a more sustainable society. Until ‘green accounting’ and similar systems are made available and are implemented, the sustainability indicator will be the most effective tool available for monitoring progress towards a more sustainable society. Sustainability indicators are already available but are characterized by a poor or absent theoretical underpinning. This paper addresses this problem by proposing a methodological framework that can be applied to the construction of indicators of sustainable development. In order to be consistent with widely accepted definitions of sustainable development, considerations relating to the measurement of quality of life and ecological integrity are central to the methodology. The methodological framework has relevance to a variety of spatial scales and to geographically diverse areas (urban or rural, developed or developing countries) so that a suite of sustainability indicators can be produced that is tailored to the needs and resources of the indicator user, but which remains rooted firmly in the fundamental principles of sustainable development.     

Principal sustainability components: empirical analysis of synergies between the three pillars of sustainability

Starting from the concept of three fundamental sustainability dimensions (environmental, social, and economic), this study investigated professional contributions to sustainability by means of principal component analysis (PCA). Graduates from the Environmental Sciences program (N?=?542) at ETH Zurich described their best professional contributions to sustainable development. Next, they evaluated whether their best practice example contributed to achieving any of the five environmental, social, and economic objectives of the Swiss national sustainability strategy. These judgments served as the basis for a PCA aiming to identify principal sustainability components (PSCs) covering typical synergies between sustainability objectives within and transcending the three fundamental dimensions. Three PSCs capturing important synergies were identified. PSC 1 Product and Process Development reflects how ecological innovation and modernization can generate social and economic benefits and at the same time facilitate the reduction in use of as well as the responsible use of natural resources. PSC 2 Education and Social Economics reflects how educational activities and sociocultural sustainability initiatives can simultaneously promote income and employment, social and human capital, and free personal development. PSC 3 Protection of Nature and Humans covers the synergetic benefits which protection of natural spaces and biodiversity and the reduction of environmental risks have for the protection of health and safety of the population. The study also revealed that integration of environmental, social, and economic aspects is often connected to conflicts between these dimensions. However, contributions which consider the economic situation of future generations or enhance social and human capital achieved considerable integration but showed no inclination toward such conflicts.     

China's dairy crisis: impacts,causes and policy implications for a sustainable dairy industry

The dairy industry is an important part of the global economy, and the rapidly developing dairy enterprises in China have become increasingly important to the rest of the world. Due to increasing demand for dairy products and support from the government, China's dairy industry has thrived in recent decades. But rapid growth has been accompanied by a suite of industry/structural problems associated with raw milk supply, processing enterprises, product retailing and profit allocation. Thus, a major dairy crisis took place in 2008, triggered by a notorious melamine-contaminated milk event. The dairy crisis has had devastating impacts on China's dairy industry, negatively affecting farmers, consumers, processing enterprises and even government agencies. The Chinese government has developed rigorous measures to prevent future incidents of this sort, including the enactment of the Food Safety Law and reinstatement of the no-exemption quality inspection of food products. In this paper, we analyse the wide-ranging impacts and root causes of the recent dairy crisis in China. We also examine how the crisis has been handled and what measures have been put in place in its aftermath. Then we discuss policy implications for promoting the sustainability of China's dairy industry. Lessons learned from this crisis, as well as implications for policy improvements, should be valuable for the development of a sustainable dairy industry in other regions of the world.     

Multicriteria analysis applied to the sustainable agriculture problem

SUMMARY

The aim of this paper is to present an operational approach to compare the relative sustainability of existing farming systems. Sustainability rests on the assumption that an equilibrium must exist among three domains: social, economic and ecological. If we are to look for a solution to the problem, we must face a multi-dimensional approach. We propose that multicriteria analysis, a multi-dimensional method, is an appropriate methodology to study the issue. As sustainability cannot be measured directly, the way out is to use indicators. We have performed a thorough analysis of four farming systems existing in Guaíra, SP, Brazil to validate the methodology. Thirty indicators of sustainability (ten ecological, ten social, and ten economic) were defined and used to perform the analysis. The results of the multicriteria analysis proved useful because of its capability of reducing the dimensionality of the problem. From the three dimensions of sustainability, a final score was derived that can easily compare the relative sustainability of each farming system.     

Values and willingness-to-pay for sustainability-certified mobile phones

ABSTRACT

This study investigated whether endorsement of personal values is associated with willingness to pay more for mobile phones with an environmental or social sustainability label. Participants were students in Sweden, Norway and Germany. A self-report inventory was used to measure willingness to pay and the importance attached to values of Schwartz’s circular model. In Sweden and Norway, participants were willing to pay, on average, 18% extra for a mobile phone with labels for environmental or social sustainability. In Germany, the corresponding share was 12%. To strive for self-enhancement values, that is, social status and prestige, as well as control and dominance over people and resources, was associated with a lower willingness to pay for mobile phones with labels for environmental or social sustainability in all three countries. Furthermore, women were willing to pay more than men for mobile phones with both kinds of sustainability labels. In Sweden and Norway, participants were, on average, willing to pay more for a mobile phone with a label for social sustainability compared to a mobile phone with a label for environmental sustainability.