Simulating future land use and ecosystem services in Northern Thailand

Enhancing ecosystem services is important as it provides foundation for the wellbeing of people. This paper presents the future land use simulation for enhancing ecosystem services using CLUMondo dynamic spatial model. The land use change was assessed from 1989 to 2013 in Wang Thong watershed of Northern Thailand using GIS and a set of ecosystem services was assessed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Future land uses until 2030 were projected for three policy scenarios, namely business-as-usual, integrated land use development, and enhancing environmental services with different levels of emphasis on ecosystem services. In business-as-usual scenario, it was observed that ecosystem services will decline by 2030 from the base year of 2013, whereas in integrated land use development scenario, the ecosystem services will increase by 5% compared to base year due to anticipated effective protection of remaining forests in all existing and proposed protected areas of the study area. In enhancing environmental services scenario, the ecosystem services will increase by 15%. Such results can serve as useful information in policy formulation in developing land use options, which help enhance ecosystem services in future.     

Does marginal price matter? A regression discontinuity approach to estimating water demand

Although complex pricing schedules are increasingly common among water and electricity providers, it is difficult to determine whether consumers respond to changes in the pricing schedule because price changes are often confounded with simultaneous demand shocks or non-price policies. To overcome this challenge, we exploit a natural experiment - the introduction of a third price block in an increasing block pricing schedule for water - in Santa Cruz, California. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that consumers do respond to changes in marginal price. Doubling marginal price leads to a 12% decrease in water use (500 cubic feet per bill) among high-use households.     

Ecological risk assessment based on freshwater consumption dynamic analysis of Xiamen City,China

Freshwater is the lifeline of a city. Shortages in urban water supply and ecological losses occur when freshwater supply capacity and demand are imbalanced. Therefore, systematic research on the risk of freshwater consumption in urban areas is urgently demanded. A scientific understanding of the risk of urban water consumption will contribute to the efficient use of freshwater resources and ensure the stability and sustainable development of cities. Taking Xiamen City as the study area, we evaluated the ecological risk of freshwater consumption scenarios in the years 2020 and 2030 using a multilevel characterization method for urban ecological risk, stepwise regression analysis, and a gray prediction model. The results of our evaluation show that freshwater consumption in Xiamen is highly correlated with the total population, the crop acreage, the proportion of secondary industry, and the treatment rate of domestic sewage. In the 2020 and 2030 scenarios, freshwater consumption in Xiamen City is predicted to increase. Meanwhile, with the construction of water conservancy facilities, the supply capacity of freshwater in Xiamen City will be greatly improved. Therefore, the ecological impacts of freshwater consumption in the 2020 and 2030 scenarios were at the middle and low levels. In this study, the validity of the multilevel characterization method described herein for urban ecological risk has been confirmed. However, calculation of scenario probability is a difficult problem in the framework of this method, and future research should address this issue.     

Unintended consequences of price controls: An application to allowance markets

Price controls established in a cap-and-trade allowance market are intended to reduce cost uncertainty by constraining allowance prices between a ceiling and floor; however, they could provide opportunities for strategic actions by firms that would lower government revenue and increase emissions. In particular, when the ceiling price is supported by introducing new allowances into the market, firms could choose to buy allowances at the ceiling price, regardless of the prevailing market price, in order to lower the equilibrium price of all allowances. Those purchases could either be transacted by firms intending to manipulate the market price or be induced through the introduction of inaccurate information about the cost of emissions abatement. Theory and simulations using allowance elasticity estimates for U.S. firms suggest that the manipulation could be profitable under the stylized setting and assumptions evaluated in the paper, although in practice many other conditions will determine its use.     

European Union agricultural policy scenarios' impacts on social sustainability of agricultural holdings

This paper aims to assess the impacts of household behaviour on social sustainability by simulating agricultural policy scenarios of the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). For this purpose a multicriteria model was formulated, at farm household level, in order to study the social impacts of the CAPs using different scenarios. The scenarios were chosen on the basis of the main EU policies affecting farm households, such as the alternative crops scenario, the Water Framework Directive scenario and the agrienvironmental schemes scenario. The data for this analysis resulted from the CAP-IRE project, a European FP7-funded project. The model includes a utility function with several conflicting criteria such as maximization of gross margin and risk and labour minimization. The model is further used to simulate the impacts on social sustainability by estimating main social indicators. The model is applied in two different farm types in Greece. The results show that the CAP scenarios have multiple social impacts on agricultural holdings, and particularly on the farm labour structure. These impacts have negative effect on social sustainability.     

Identifying future scenarios and their implications for transport policy

Scenario analysis is a technique that is increasingly being used as a way of identifying future policy options and issues in the long-term. This paper discusses the role of scenario analysis in policy development in relation to future transport policy. It discusses three key stages in scenario analysis: the identification of policy targets; the development of images of the future; and the construction of policy packages.     

A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Optimal policy instruments for externality-producing durable goods under present bias

When consumers exhibit present bias, the standard solution to market failures caused by externalities—Pigouvian pricing—is suboptimal. I investigate policies aimed at externalities for present-biased consumers. Optimal policy includes an instrument to correct the externality and an instrument to correct the present bias. Either instrument can be an incentive-based policy (e.g. a tax on fuel economy) or a command-and-control policy (e.g. a fuel economy mandate). Under consumer heterogeneity, a command-and-control policy may dominate an incentive-based policy. Calibrated to the US automobile market, simulation results suggest that the second-best gasoline tax is 3–30% higher than marginal external damages. The optimal price policy includes a gasoline tax set about equal to marginal external damages and a fuel economy tax that increases the price of an average non-hybrid car by about $550–$2200 relative to the price of an average hybrid car.     

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g., historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate‐change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. We assessed the potential impact of climate‐change scenarios on the rates at which grasslands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) are authorized for emergency harvesting (i.e., biomass removal) for agricultural use, which can occur when precipitation for the previous 4 months is below 40% of the normal or historical mean precipitation for that 4‐month period. We developed and analyzed scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections showed the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28% based on long‐term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario that reflected continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing‐season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and were subject to a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario with rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario‐impact analysis indicated that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP would be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate‐change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.     

Scenarios of large mammal loss in Europe for the 21st century

Distributions and populations of large mammals are declining globally, leading to an increase in their extinction risk. We forecasted the distribution of extant European large mammals (17 carnivores and 10 ungulates) based on 2 Rio+20 scenarios of socioeconomic development: business as usual and reduced impact through changes in human consumption of natural resources. These scenarios are linked to scenarios of land‐use change and climate change through the spatial allocation of land conversion up to 2050. We used a hierarchical framework to forecast the extent and distribution of mammal habitat based on species’ habitat preferences (as described in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List database) within a suitable climatic space fitted to the species’ current geographic range. We analyzed the geographic and taxonomic variation of habitat loss for large mammals and the potential effect of the reduced impact policy on loss mitigation. Averaging across scenarios, European large mammals were predicted to lose 10% of their habitat by 2050 (25% in the worst‐case scenario). Predicted loss was much higher for species in northwestern Europe, where habitat is expected to be lost due to climate and land‐use change. Change in human consumption patterns was predicted to substantially improve the conservation of habitat for European large mammals, but not enough to reduce extinction risk if species cannot adapt locally to climate change or disperse.     

Effects of climate change on moose populations: Exploring the response horizon through biometric and systems models

Interest in the response of moose to climate change has increased because of the potential role they play in the conservation of woodland caribou, and threatened loss to recreational and economic opportunities. The objective of this study is to develop a plausible, parsimonious, systems-level model of moose population dynamics that will be useful in exploring the response of moose populations to climate projections. The study begins with a statistical model of moose carrying capacity, which is then integrated into a systems-level model that predicts moose density based on explicit causal factors. Scenario analysis was conducted using a variety of assumptions concerning biotic and abiotic interactions, and under the A2 climate scenario all model scenarios predict a decline of moose density at the southern limits of the Ontario distribution and an increase at the northern extents. Predicted declines are a result of lower carrying capacity and higher heat stress, parasite loads and wolf predation. Given the sensitivity of the model to density-dependent factors, the indirect effect of parasites on decreased recruitment may have greater impact on moose than the direct effect of increased death rate. Results indicate that conservation planning for woodland caribou populations should account for possible increases in moose and wolf populations.     

Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.     

Will unit‐pricing enhance recycling?

Unit pricing is a program in solid waste management that integrates market instruments to encourage households to reduce waste generation and increase recycling. Many studies have shown that unit pricing is effective, especially when the evaluation is based on comparing outcomes before and after implementation. In this paper, we use the so-called difference-in-differences approach to evaluate unit pricing. This approach can provide a less-biased estimation, and can help to examine whether a unit pricing program generates less waste and higher recycling or results in illegal dumping in neighboring regions. Using the fee-per-bag program implemented in Taipei City, Taiwan, as a case study, we found that unit pricing does reduce the amount of garbage but its impact on recycling is not as significant as the current literature suggests. Moreover, the program causes a serious negative externality: more than 60%?of the garbage reduction in the city is due to increased dumping of waste in neighboring regions. As the impact of unit‐pricing on recycling is limited, policy-makers cannot rely solely on this program to enhance recycling in the management of municipal solid waste.     

Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness

Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.Future scenarios for climate, demography, technology and global demand for agricultural commodities are used to assess the competitiveness of European agriculture. Regional economic competitiveness is determined by combining indicators for the economic strength of farms in a region and population pressure on agricultural land, and subsequently used to determine where agricultural production is likely to sustain under the market liberalisation scenario. The method is illustrated for the 27 EU member state countries for three commodities: wheat, potato and milk (relying on grass).Results include maps of the dominant wheat, potato and milk producing regions across Europe as projected for 2050. They show that due to increased agricultural productivity, less agricultural land will be needed to supply the European demand for food and feed. In addition, production will concentrate in those regions which have a comparative advantage. This potentially leads to a strong polarisation between north-western Europe and southern Europe, which faces negative impacts of climate change and central and northern Europe where agricultural businesses lag in economic strength and farm size. A contrasting policy intervention scenario illustrates how differences in demand and productivity result in an expansion of the agricultural area, especially for the production of wheat.Although the complete liberalisation scenario may seem unlikely, and the underlying assumptions have great uncertainty, the results help identify and map market pressures on agricultural land use across regions in Europe. As such, it stimulates policy debate on the desired future for the European agricultural sector and the trade-offs between economic competitiveness under global market conditions and policy intervention. In addition, it provides a basis for the planning of alternative economic strategies for agriculturally less competitive regions.     

The impact on tropospheric ozone formation on the implementation of a program for mobile emissions control: a case study in São Paulo,Brazil

The main sources of reactive hydrocarbons (RHC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), ozone precursors, in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) in the southeast of Brazil are emissions from vehicles fleets. Ambient surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations are air quality problem in the MASP. This study examined the impact that implementing a control program for mobile emissions has on ozone concentrations, An episode of high surface ozone concentrations occurring in the MASP during the March 13–15, 2000 period was used as a case study that was modeled for photochemical oxidants using the California Institute of Technology/Carnegie Mellon University three-dimensional photochemical model. Different scenarios were analyzed in relationship to the implementation of the Programa Nacional de Controle de Poluição por Veículos Automotores (PROCONVE, National Program to Control Motor Vehicle Pollution). Scenario 1 assumed that all vehicles were operating within PROCONVE guidelines. Scenarios 2 and 3 considered hypothetical situations in which the PROCONVE was not implemented. Scenario 2 set the premise that vehicles were using pre-1989 technology, whereas scenario 3 allowed for technological advances. A base case scenario, in which the official emission inventory for the year 2000 was employed, was also analyzed. The CIT model results show agreement with most measurements collected during 13–15 March 2000 modeling episode. Mean normalized bias for ozone, CO, RHC and NO _x are approximately 9.0, 6.0, ?8.3, 13.0%, respectively. Tropospheric ozone concentrations predicted for scenario 2 were higher than those predicted for scenarios 1, 3 and base case. This study makes a significant contribution to the evaluation of air quality improvement and provides data for use in evaluating the economic costs of implementing a program of motor vehicle pollution control aimed at protecting human health.     

Role of Prices and Wealth in Consumer Demand for Bushmeat in Gabon, Central Africa

Abstract:  Unsustainable hunting of wildlife for food is often a more immediate and significant threat to the conservation of biological diversity in tropical forests than deforestation. Why people eat wildlife is debated. Some may eat bushmeat because they can afford it; others may eat it because it is familiar, traditional, confers prestige, tastes good, or adds variety. We completed a survey of 1208 rural and urban households in Gabon, Africa, in 2002–2003 to estimate the effect of wealth and prices on the consumption of wildlife and other sources of animal protein. Consumption of bushmeat, fish, chicken, and livestock increased with increasing household wealth, and as the price of these commodities rose, consumption declined. Although the prices of substitutes for bushmeat did not significantly, in statistical terms, influence bushmeat consumption, as the price of wildlife increased and its consumption fell, the consumption of fish rose, indicating that fish and bushmeat were dietary substitutes. Our results suggest that policy makers can use economic levers such as taxation or supply reduction through better law enforcement to change demand for wildlife. These measures will help to regulate unsustainable exploitation and reduce the risk of irreversible loss of large-bodied and slow-reproducing wildlife species. If policy makers focus solely on reducing the unsustainable consumption of wildlife, they may see adverse impacts on the exploitation of fish. Furthermore, policy makers must ensure that raising household wealth through development assistance does not result in undesirable impacts on the conservation status of wildlife and fish.     

The influence of individuals in forming collective household preferences for water quality

Preference for water quality and its nonmarket valuation can be used to inform the development of pricing policies and long term supply strategies. Tap water quality is a household concern. The objective status quo of water provision varies between households and not between individuals within households, while charges are levied on households not individuals. Individual preferences differ from collective preferences. In households where there are two adults, we examine the preferences of each separately and then as a couple in collective decisions. We show the level of influence each has in developing the collective decision process. We use discrete choice experiments to model preference heterogeneity across three experiments on women, men and on both. We propose a random utility model which decomposes the error structure in the utility of alternatives so as to identify the individual influence in collective decisions. This approach to choice data analysis is new to environmental economics.