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1.
Abstract:  In conservation ecology there is an urgent need for indicators that can be used to predict the risk of extinction of populations. Identifying extinction-prone populations has been difficult because few data sets on the demographic characteristics of the final stage to extinction are available and because of problems in separating out stochastic effects from changes in the expected dynamics. We documented the demographic changes that occurred during the period prior to extinction of a small island population of House Sparrows ( Passer domesticus ) after the end of permanent human settlement. A mark-recapture analysis revealed that this decline to extinction was mainly due to increased mortality after closure of the last farm that resulted in a negative long-term-specific growth rate. No change occurred in either the structural composition (breeding sex ratio and age distribution) of the population or in female recruitment. No male, however, recruits were produced on the island after the farm closure. Based on a simple, stochastic, density-dependent model we constructed a population prediction interval (PPI) to estimate the time to extinction. The 95% PPI slightly overestimated the time to extinction with large uncertainty in predictions, especially due to the influence of demographic stochasticity and parameter drift. Our results strongly emphasize the importance of access to data on temporal variation that can be used to parameterize simple population models that allow estimation of critical parameters for credible prediction of time to extinction.  相似文献   

2.
Summary We observed the sex ratios and age composition of courting, nesting, and nonbreeding birds (in clubs) in four breeding colonies of Herring Gulls in Maine and New York. Breeding pairs, with eggs or chicks, often contained an immature male, but rarely contained an immature female. Similarly, courting pairs contained immature males, but rarely immature females. A higher proportion of courting pairs contained immatures compared with pairs with eggs or chicks. In all four colonies there was an excess of females in the clubs. A simulated colony which assumed unequal survival for males and females had an age ratio for unpaired birds that was similar to the observed values. We conclude that in Herring Gulls, mate competition exists and stems in part from an unequal tertiary sex ratio.  相似文献   

3.
Males of the cactophilic fruitfly, Drosophila pachea, produce relatively few but very large sperm, and partition their limited gamete numbers among successive mates. The present study found that males take 10 days longer than females, post-eclosion, to become sexually mature. The pattern of testes development suggests that the need to produce testes long enough to manufacture the giant sperm is the cause of the delayed male maturity. These findings generate the prediction that the operational sex ratio (OSR) of populations will be female-biased. The size, sex ratio, and OSR of natural populations were examined. In general, local populations tended to be small and sex ratios tended to be slightly male-biased. However, as predicted, the OSR of populations, at least in one season, tended to be female-biased, with an average of 2.3 receptive females for each sexually active male. Results of laboratory experiments to determine the relationship between female remating frequency and fitness, and between population OSR and productivity, suggest that natural populations with female-biased OSRs are sperm-limited. The origin and maintenance of sperm gigantism and the unusual sperm-partitioning behavior of males are discussed with respect to population structure.  相似文献   

4.
Demographic Side Effects of Selective Hunting in Ungulates and Carnivores   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Abstract:  Selective harvesting regimes are often implemented because age and sex classes contribute differently to population dynamics and hunters show preferences associated with body size and trophy value. We reviewed the literature on how such cropping regimes affect the demography of the remaining population (here termed demographic side effects ). First, we examined the implications of removing a large proportion of a specific age or sex class. Such harvesting strategies often bias the population sex ratio toward females and reduce the mean age of males, which may consequently delay birth dates, reduce birth synchrony, delay body mass development, and alter offspring sex ratios. Second, we reviewed the side effects associated with the selective removal of relatively few specific individuals, often large trophy males. Such selective harvesting can destabilize social structures and the dominance hierarchy and may cause loss of social knowledge, sexually selected infanticide, habitat changes among reproductive females, and changes in offspring sex ratio. A common feature of many of the reported mechanisms is that they ultimately depress recruitment and in some extreme cases even cause total reproductive collapse. These effects could act additively and destabilize the dynamics of populations, thus having a stronger effect on population growth rate than first anticipated. Although more experimental than observational studies reported demographic side effects, we argue that this may reflect the quite subtle mechanisms involved, which are unlikely to be detected in observational studies without rigorous monitoring regimes. We call for more detailed studies of hunted populations with marked individuals that address how the expression of these effects varies across mating systems, habitats, and with population density. Theoretical models investigating how strongly these effects influence population growth rates are also required.  相似文献   

5.
Sex ratio theory is one of the most controversial topics in evolutionary ecology. Many deviations from an equal production of males and females are reported in the literature, but few patterns appear to hold across species or populations. There is clearly a need to identify fitness effects of sex ratio variation. We studied this aspect in a population of a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans), using molecular sex-identification techniques. We report that parental traits affect both (1) fledgling traits in a sex-dependent way and (2) chick sex: Sons are overproduced when likely to be large at fledging and, to a lesser extent, daughters are overproduced when likely to be in good body condition at fledging. Because for the same population, a previous study reported that post-fledging survival was positively affected by size in males and by body condition in females, our results suggest that wandering albatrosses manipulate offspring sex to increase post-fledging survival.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract:  An important aim of conservation biology is to understand how habitat change affects the dynamics and extinction risk of populations. We used matrix models to analyze the effect of habitat degradation on the demography of the declining perennial plant Trifolium montanum in 9 calcareous grasslands in Germany over 4 years and experimentally tested the effect of grassland management. Finite population growth rates (λ) decreased with light competition, measured as leaf-area index above T. montanum plants. At unmanaged sites λ was <1 due to lower recruitment and lower survival and flowering probability of large plants. Nevertheless, in stochastic simulations, extinction of unmanaged populations of 100 flowering plants was delayed for several decades. Clipping as a management technique rapidly increased population growth because of higher survival and flowering probability of large plants in managed than in unmanaged plots. Transition-matrix simulations from these plots indicated grazing or mowing every second year would be sufficient to ensure a growth rate ≥1 if conditions stayed the same. At frequently grazed sites, the finite growth rate was approximately 1 in most populations of T. montanum . In stochastic simulations, the extinction risk of even relatively small grazed populations was low, but about half the extant populations of T. montanum in central Germany are smaller than would be sufficient for a probability of survival of >95% over 100 years. We conclude that habitat change after cessation of management strongly reduces recruitment and survival of established individuals of this perennial plant. Nevertheless, our results suggest extinction processes may take a long time in perennial plants, resulting in an extinction debt. Even if management is frequent, many remnant populations of T. montanum may be at risk because of their small size, but even a slight increase in size could considerably reduce their extinction risk.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract:  When sex determination in a species is predominantly genetic but environmentally reversible, exposure to (anthropogenic) changes in the environment can lead to shifts in a population's sex ratio. Such scenarios may be common in many fishes and amphibians, yet their ramifications remain largely unexplored. We used a simple model to study the (short-term) population consequences of environmental sex reversal (ESR). We examined the effects on sex ratios, sex chromosome frequencies, and population growth and persistence after exposure to environmental forces with feminizing or masculinizing tendencies. When environmental feminization was strong, X chromosomes were driven to extinction. Analogously, extinction of normally male-linked genetic factors (e.g., Y chromosomes) was caused by continuous environmental masculinization. Although moderate feminization was beneficial for population growth in the absence of large viability effects, our results suggest that the consequences of ESR are generally negative in terms of population size and the persistence of sex chromosomes. Extreme sex ratios resulting from high rates of ESR also reduced effective population sizes considerably. This may limit any evolutionary response to the deleterious effects of ESR. Our findings suggest that ESR changes population growth and sex ratios in some counter-intuitive ways and can change the predominant factor in sex determination from genetic to fully environmental, often within only a few tens of generations. Populations that lose genetic sex determination may quickly go extinct if the environmental forces that cause sex reversal cease.  相似文献   

8.
In some fishes, water chemistry or temperature affects sex determination or creates sex‐specific selection pressures. The resulting population sex ratios are hard to predict from laboratory studies if the environmental triggers interact with other factors, whereas in field studies, singular observations of unusual sex ratios may be particularly prone to selective reporting. Long‐term monitoring largely avoids these problems. We studied a population of grayling (Thymallus thymallus) in Lake Thun, Switzerland, that has been monitored since 1948. Samples of spawning fish have been caught about 3 times/week around spawning season, and water temperature at the spawning site has been continuously recorded since 1970. We used scale samples collected in different years to determine the average age of spawners (for life‐stage specific analyses) and to identify the cohort born in 2003 (an extraordinarily warm year). Recent tissue samples were genotyped on microsatellite markers to test for genetic bottlenecks in the past and to estimate the genetically effective population size (Ne). Operational sex ratios changed from approximately 65% males before 1993 to approximately 85% males from 1993 to 2011. Sex ratios correlated with the water temperatures the fish experienced in their first year of life. Sex ratios were best explained by the average temperature juvenile fish experienced during their first summer. Grayling abundance is declining, but we found no evidence of a strong genetic bottleneck that would explain the apparent lack of evolutionary response to the unequal sex ratio. Results of other studies show no evidence of endocrine disruptors in the study area. Our findings suggest temperature affects population sex ratio and thereby contributes to population decline. Persistencia de Proporción de Sexos Desigual en una Población de Tímalos (Salmonidae) y el Posible Papel del Incremento de la Temperatura  相似文献   

9.
Offspring sex ratio at hatching was examined in the bushcricket Poecilimon veluchianus. Offspring sex ratios varied significantly between females (Fig. 1). Low mortality prior to sex determination established that this heterogeneity was already present in the primary offspring sex ratio. Sperm age and female age had no influence on offspring sex ratio (Fig. 2). Male age at copulation, however, correlated significantly with offspring sex ratio (Fig. 3). There were two types of males: one type produced predominantly daughters when young and an increasing proportion of sons with age. The other type produced, independent of age, 1:1 offspring sex ratios (Fig. 4). The two types of males seem to occur in approximately equal numbers. Sex ratio variation (1) may adaptively compensate for local sex ratio biases caused by sex-specific motility, or (2) it may be adaptive if there is a sex-differential effect of laying date on offspring fitness. Received: 14 March 1996/Accepted after revision: 24 June 1996  相似文献   

10.
We studied the effects of ecological variables on the birth sex ratio of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) lambs on the island of Hirta, in the St Kilda archipelago, Scotland. Both individual- and population-level models were constructed. In the individual-based model, only population size was significantly associated with the sex of a lamb, with the probability of giving birth to a male lamb being positively associated with population size. However, this model explained a very small proportion of the variance in birth sex ratio. A multiple regression analysis of the annual population birth sex ratio also showed a slight increase in the proportion of males born in years following high autumn population density, but this result was not statistically significant. Population growth rate, Julian birthday, litter size, mother's age and weight, and the weather conditions during the gestation and neonatal period did not explain significant variation in the birth sex ratio.  相似文献   

11.
Do female roe deer in good condition produce more sons than daughters   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
In polygynous roe deer Capreolus capreolus, males are only slightly heavier than females and the overall sex ratio at birth is close to unity. We studied offspring sex ratio and litter size (range 1–4, n = 74) of culled females, in utero, which provided an opportunity to examine responses of sex ratio to maternal condition. Male embryos were heavier than their sisters, and male fawns (9 months old) heavier than female fawns, suggesting a higher growth rate in males. There was no evidence for differential mortality between the sexes from birth to 9 months old. Heavier adult females produced larger embryos than lighter, or primiparous females. The overall sex ratio of embryos did not differ from unity, but adult does had more male embryos (55%) than primiparous does (32%), and the proportion of male embryos in a litter increased with the mother's body mass. Litter size also tended to increase with maternal age and body mass. We argue that this pattern reflects adaptive variation in offspring sex ratio.  相似文献   

12.
Populations of landbirds (bird species that occupy terrestrial habitats for most of their life cycle) are declining throughout North America (north of Mexico) and Europe, yet little is known about how demography is driving this trend. A recent model of 5 geographically separated populations of Cerulean Warblers (Dendroica cerulea) that was based on within-season sampling of nest survival and fledgling success shows that all populations are sinks (annual reproduction is consistently less than annual adult mortality). I tested this indirect model by directly measuring fecundity (number of female fledglings/female) during the breeding season for 2 years in a Cerulean Warbler population occupying a mature forest in southwestern Michigan (U.S.A.) I determined territories of male birds on the basis of male plumage characters and phases of the nesting cycle (2007) and on uniquely color-banded males (2008). I transferred locations of identified males to topographic maps. I counted all fledglings in territories from May to July each year. The model I tested may apply only to single-brooded species; therefore, I searched the literature to estimate the percentage of single-brooded species in North America. The breeding season of Cerulean Warblers was short- nearly all nests were initiated from mid-May to late June. Nest predation and brood parasitism were primary and rare causes of nest failure, respectively. Significantly fewer Cerulean Warblers fledged from parasitized than from nonparasitized nests. Fledgling survival required to maintain the population size was well above previously published values for Neotropical migrants. Single-brooded species comprise 62% of North American breeding bird species for which the number of broods per year is known; I believe my results may apply to these species. The consistency between identification of populations as sources or sinks on the basis of either model estimates or direct measurements suggests that a demographic model relying on within-season sampling of fecundity is adequate to determine population status of single-brooded avian populations. In addition, on the basis of results of previous studies, annual adult survival rate of the Cerulean Warbler is typical of parulid warblers that are not declining. Thus, low fecundity, here determined with different quantitative methods, can drive status of landbird species with high-observed survival.  相似文献   

13.
Elaborate ornamental plumage has been associated with various measures of individual quality in many species of birds. Male plumage characteristics, which have been relatively well studied, have been shown to reflect past reproductive investment, as well as the potential for reproductive investment in the current breeding attempt. In contrast, the signalling functions of female traits remain largely unexplored. In this study, we investigated the relationship between plumage attributes of breeding adult tree swallows and past reproductive investment, current reproductive investment and social mate pairing strategy. Both males and older females possess metallic green to metallic blue iridescent plumage on their dorsal surface, making this a suitable species for this type of investigation. We did not find any effects of past reproductive investment and success on the plumage attributes of returning breeders. In contrast, female plumage hue covaried with fledging success, and female plumage brightness was positively associated with mean clutch egg mass. In addition, we found that social pairs mated assortatively with respect to plumage brightness. We argue that since plumage characteristics vary with age in both male and female tree swallows, plumage attributes in this species are indicative of breeding experience and may be honest signals of quality. Positive assortative pairing could be the result of mutual mate choice or intra-sexual competition for nest sites by both males and females.  相似文献   

14.
Theory suggests that maternal effects are especially important in organisms with environmentally-sensitive sex-determining mechanisms. However, there is no substantive body of empirical evidence to confirm this conjecture. We integrated field and laboratory studies to jointly evaluate the significance of behavioral (nest-site choice) and physiological (yolk hormone allocation) maternal effects on offspring sex ratio in the common snapping turtle (Chelydra serpentina), a species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Of the 16 microhabitat variables measured, only three (south, east, and total overstory vegetation cover) were significantly correlated with nest temperature: cooler nests were located under more vegetation cover. In turn, these microhabitat predictors of nest temperature, and nest temperature itself, may influence nest sex ratio: shadier, cooler nests were more likely to produce a higher proportion of male offspring than less shady, warmer nests. Analysis of eggs from these same nests incubated in a common garden design in the laboratory revealed that clutch sex ratio was unaffected by levels of yolk estradiol, yolk testosterone, or their interaction. Examination of both behavioral and physiological maternal effects revealed no concordant impact on offspring sex ratio. However, eggs from nests that produced male-biased sex ratios in the field yielded higher proportions of males under constant-temperature conditions in the laboratory. Our study confirms the importance of behavioral maternal effects in nature on offspring sex ratios in species with TSD, while also revealing the potential presence of a predisposition for sex-ratio production underlying TSD in this system.Communicated by S. Krackow  相似文献   

15.
Abstract: Species that have temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) often produce highly skewed offspring sex ratios contrary to long‐standing theoretical predictions. This ecological enigma has provoked concern that climate change may induce the production of single‐sex generations and hence lead to population extirpation. All species of sea turtles exhibit TSD, many are already endangered, and most already produce sex ratios skewed to the sex produced at warmer temperatures (females). We tracked male loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) from Zakynthos, Greece, throughout the entire interval between successive breeding seasons and identified individuals on their breeding grounds, using photoidentification, to determine breeding periodicity and operational sex ratios. Males returned to breed at least twice as frequently as females. We estimated that the hatchling sex ratio of 70:30 female to male for this rookery will translate into an overall operational sex ratio (OSR) (i.e., ratio of total number of males vs females breeding each year) of close to 50:50 female to male. We followed three male turtles for between 10 and 12 months during which time they all traveled back to the breeding grounds. Flipper tagging revealed the proportion of females returning to nest after intervals of 1, 2, 3, and 4 years were 0.21, 0.38, 0.29, and 0.12, respectively (mean interval 2.3 years). A further nine male turtles were tracked for short periods to determine their departure date from the breeding grounds. These departure dates were combined with a photoidentification data set of 165 individuals identified on in‐water transect surveys at the start of the breeding season to develop a statistical model of the population dynamics. This model produced a maximum likelihood estimate that males visit the breeding site 2.6 times more often than females (95%CI 2.1, 3.1), which was consistent with the data from satellite tracking and flipper tagging. Increased frequency of male breeding will help ameliorate female‐biased hatchling sex ratios. Combined with the ability of males to fertilize the eggs of many females and for females to store sperm to fertilize many clutches, our results imply that effects of climate change on the viability of sea turtle populations are likely to be less acute than previously suspected.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract: Theory suggests that demographic and genetic traits deteriorate (i.e., fitness and genetic diversity decrease) when populations become small, and that such deterioration could precipitate positive feedback loops called extinction vortices. We examined whether demographic attributes and genetic traits have changed over time in one of the 2 remaining small populations of the highly endangered Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) in Doñana, Spain. From 1983 to 2008, we recorded nontraumatic mortality rates, litter size, offspring survival, age at territory acquisition, and sex ratio. We combined these demographic attributes with measures of inbreeding and genetic diversity at neutral loci (microsatellites) and genes subjected to selection (major histocompatibility complex). Data on demographic traits were obtained through capture and radio tracking, checking dens during breeding, track surveys, and camera trapping. For genetic analyses, we obtained blood or tissue samples from captured or necropsied individuals or from museum specimens. Over time a female‐biased sex ratio developed, age of territory acquisition decreased, mean litter size decreased, and rates of nontraumatic mortality increased, but there were no significant changes in overall mortality rates, standardized individual heterozygosity declined steadily, and allelic diversity of exon 2 of class II major histocompatibility complex DRB genes remained constant (2 allelic variants present in all individuals analyzed). Changes in sex ratio and age of territory acquisition may have resulted from demographic stochasticity, whereas changes in litter size and nontraumatic mortality may be related to observed increases in inbreeding. Concomitant deterioration of both demographic attributes and genetic traits is consistent with an extinction vortex. The co‐occurrence, with or without interaction, of demographic and genetic deterioration may explain the lack of success of conservation efforts with the Doñana population of Iberian lynx.  相似文献   

17.
Since the Pleistocene, Arctic foxes, Alopex lagopus, on Mednyi Island in the North Pacific have been isolated in a small area with rich food resources and no other terrestrial carnivores. This situation provides an unusually simple system within which the effect of food dispersion on demography and social organisation was examined. We studied the composition, location and dispersal of 67 Arctic fox groups and mapped their major food resources (seabird colonies) during 1994–2000 on Mednyi. We compared our observations with the predictions of models of sex-ratio determination. Our observations are most consistent with the predictions of Julliard's (2000) model, where mothers are expected to produce more offspring of the most dispersing sex in low-quality habitats, and more offspring of the most philopatric sex in high-quality habitats. The polygynous foxes on Mednyi Island lived where the principal food resources were patchily distributed (present on 11% of the shoreline), and cub survival to dispersal age or reproductive adult was higher in rich (25/45) than in poor (24/79) home ranges. Furthermore, dispersal was strongly sex-biased: most females (60%) remained on their natal ranges, whereas very few males (9%) did so. Significantly more female than male cubs (54 compared with 24) emerged from dens in resource rich ranges, whereas the sex ratio on poor ranges was approximately equal (51 females and 56 males). While our observations are also to some extent consistent with the local resource enhancement (LRE) hypothesis (which predicts a bias towards the sex most likely to cooperate with parents), this does not account for the observed spatial variability.  相似文献   

18.
Summary In many sexually dichromatic species, young males have female-like plumage during their first potential breeding year. The female-mimicry hypothesis (FMH) supposes that by possessing female-like plumage young males deceive older conspicuous males into believing that they are females, thus reducing competition from adult males. The status-signalling hypothesis (SSH) supposes that adult males can distinguish sex, but postulates that young males reduce competition from adult males by reliably signaling low status with their dull plumage. We tested these hypotheses in the European kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). Female-like young males settled to breed closer to adult males than did other adult males (Figs. 1a, b). By settling near adult males, young males seemed to increase their chance of mating with adult females. Adult female-young male pairs had better reproductive success than yearling-yearling pairs. These results suggest that there is an adaptive value in possessing a female-like plumage colour in the breeding season. To test the FMH, we measured sexual preference of adult males when adult females and young males were simultaneously shown in an aviary. Adult males were unable to recognize sex, because in half the cases they preferred young males (Fig. 3). However, when adult males and females were shown simultaneously, males preferred females (Fig. 2). Our results support the FMH rather than the SSH, because young males successfully deceived older males by their plumage.  相似文献   

19.
When fitness returns or production costs vary between male and female offspring, selection is expected to favor females that adjust offspring sex ratio accordingly. However, to what extent vertebrates can do so is the subject of ongoing debate. Here, we explore primary sex ratios in 125 broods of cooperatively breeding purple-crowned fairy-wrens Malurus coronatus. We expected that females might adjust offspring sex ratio because this passerine species experiences considerable variation in social and environmental conditions. (1) However, although helpers substantially increase parental fitness, females (particularly in pairs and small groups) did not overproduce philopatric males (helper-repayment hypothesis). (2) Sex-ratio adjustment based on competition among individuals (helper-competition hypothesis) did not conceal helper-repayment effects or drive sex allocation on its own: while high-quality territories can accommodate more birds, brood sex ratios were independent of territory quality, alone or in interaction with group size. (3) Additionally, males are larger than females and are possibly more costly to produce (costly sex hypothesis), and (4) female offspring may benefit more from long-term effects of favorable conditions early in life (Trivers–Willard hypothesis). Nonetheless, large seasonal variation in food abundance was not associated with a consistent skew in primary sex ratios. Thus, overall, our results did not support the main hypotheses of adaptive sex-ratio adjustment in M. coronatus. We discuss that long-term differential costs and benefits may be insufficient to drive evolution of primary sex-ratio manipulation by M. coronatus females. More investigation is therefore needed to determine the general required sex differences in long-term fitness returns for mechanisms of primary sex-ratio manipulation to evolve.  相似文献   

20.
Maternal manipulation of offspring sex ratio in response to conspecifics is considered in relation to sex ratio theory using the parasitoid wasp Spalangia endius. Females produced a greater proportion of sons in response to mated but not virgin females. This is the first demonstration of a differential sex ratio response to virgin versus mated females and provides support for local mate competition theory. More recent sex ratio models that predict sex ratio responses to conspecifics, specifically constrained, perturbation, and crowding models, were not supported. An increased proportion of sons in response to another mated female occurred on the second day of oviposition but not on the first, and the day effect resulted from experience not age. When females oviposited alone after 2 days' exposure to another female, they still produced a greater proportion of sons than if they had always been alone, but only if the other female was mated, not if she was virgin. Females do not seem to assess the presence of virgin versus mated females indirectly by using a low density of males or a long latency to mate as an indicator for virgin females: neither affected offspring sex ratio. That mated females adjusted their sex ratios in response to other mated females, but not virgin females or males, may be due proximally to mated females not often encountering the latter. Virgin females and males are not located as deep in the oviposition substrate as mated females.  相似文献   

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