城市在用CNG汽车排放研究

通过车载实验,怠速法检测、简易工况法检测数据评价分析等方法,研究了重庆市在用CNG车辆排放情况,比较了CNG车与同类型汽油、柴油车尾气污染物排放情况。研究发现,目前CNG在用车并非绝对的环保汽车,其中在NOx的排放上,CNG车排放高于同类型汽油、柴油车0．03—14倍;在CO、THC的排放上,不同测试工况下CNG汽车表...     

Impacts of methanol fuel on vehicular emissions: A review

● Methanol effectively reduces CO, HC, CO₂, PM, and PN emissions of gasoline vehicles. ● Elemental composition of methanol directly affects the reduction of emissions. ● Several physicochemical properties of methanol help reduce vehicle emissions. The transport sector is a significant energy consumer and a major contributor to urban air pollution. At present, the substitution of cleaner fuel is one feasible way to deal with the growing energy demand and environmental pollution. Methanol has been recognized as a good alternative to gasoline due to its good combustion performance. In the past decades, many studies have investigated exhaust emissions using methanol-gasoline blends. However, the conclusions derived from different studies vary significantly, and the explanations for the effects of methanol blending on exhaust emissions are also inconsistent. This review summarizes the characteristics of CO, HC, NO_x, CO₂, and particulate emissions from methanol-gasoline blended fuels and pure methanol fuel. CO, HC, CO₂, particle mass (PM), and particle number (PN) emissions decrease when methanol-blended fuel is used in place of gasoline fuel. NO_x emission either decreases or increases depending on the test conditions, i.e., methanol content. Furthermore, this review synthesizes the mechanisms by which methanol-blended fuel influences pollutant emissions. This review provides insight into the pollutant emissions from methanol-blended fuel, which will aid policymakers in making energy strategy decisions that take urban air pollution, climate change, and energy security into account.     

Environmental aspects of biofuels in road transportation

Energy is a vital and growing need for human activities such as transport, agriculture and industry. The transport and agriculture sectors are major consumers of fossil fuel. However, availability of fossil fuels is limited. The use of fossil fuels is of increasing environmental concerns because it produces toxic airborne particulates and greenhouse gases such as CO₂. The increasing industrialization and motorization of the world led to a steep rise for the demand of petroleum-based fuels. Hence, it is necessary to seek alternative fuels, which can be produced from resources available locally within the country such as alcohol, biodiesel and vegetable oils. Biodiesel is defined as the mono alkyl esters of vegetable oils or animal fats. Biodiesel is the best candidate for diesel fuels in the diesel engines. The advantage of biodiesel over gasoline and petroleum/diesel is its eco-friendly nature. This article reviews the production, characterization and current status of biofuels mainly biodiesel along with the environmental impacts of particulate matter, greenhouse gas emissions originated from biodiesel.     

Fuel type preference of taxi driver and its implications for air emissions

Natural gas became an available fuel for taxis in 2005 and had occupied a market share of 43.6% in taxi industry till 2010 in Nanjing, China. To investigate the energy replacement pattern as well as the pollutants reduction potential of the taxi industry, first, the fuel preference determinants of taxi drivers for their next taxis are analyzed. Results show that as an important alternative for the traditional gasoline, natural gas is widely accepted (75%) by taxi drivers. Different from the previous studies which focused on the early stage of cleaner fuel replacement, taxi drivers with various characteristics (such as age, working experience, and education level) are consistent with their fuel preference when they choose their next taxis. Result suggests that policies that concern consumers with specific characteristics may have little effects on the change of the market share, when the alternative fuel market has been developed well. In addition, the increased share of gas in the fuel market achieves a 7.2% reduction of energy consumption. Considering life cycle emissions, the following air pollutants, namely Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), carbonic oxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NO_x), particulate matters (PM) and hydrocarbons (C_xH_y), gain 10.0%, 3.5%, 20.5%, 36.1%, and 26.4% of reduction respectively. Assuming all taxi fleets powered by natural gas with local policy intervention, the energy conservation and the five major air pollutant emissions could achieve the maximum reductions with 12.2%, 16.0%, 8.8%, 22.5%, 44.2%, and 49.4% correspondingly.     

Integrierte Treibhausgasbewertung der Prozessketten von Erdgas und industriellem Biomethan in Deutschland

Background The use of natural gas has increased in the last years. In the future, its import supply and transport structure will diversify (longer distances, higher share of LNG (liquefied natural gas), new pipelines). Thus the process chain and GHG emissions of the production, processing, transport and distribution might change. Simultaneously, the injection of bio methane into the natural gas grid is becoming more important. Although its combustion is regarded as climate neutral, during the production processes of bio methane GHG emissions are caused. The GHG emissions occurring during the process chain of energy fuels are relevant for the discussion on climate policy and decision making processes. They are becoming even more important, considering the new Fuel Quality Directive of the EU (Dec. 2008), which aims at controlling emissions of the fuel process chains. Aim In the context of the aspects outlined above the aim is to determine the future development of gas supply for Germany and the resulting changes in GHG emissions of the whole process chain of natural gas and bio methane. With the help of two gas consumption scenarios and an LCA of bio methane, the amount of future emissions and emission paths until 2030 can be assessed and used to guide decision processes in energy policy. Results and discussion The process chain of bio methane and its future technical development are outlined and the related emissions calculated. The analysis is based on an accompanying research study on the injection of bio methane to the German gas grid. Two types of biogas plants have been considered whereof the “optimised technology” is assumed to dominate the future market. This is the one which widely exploits the potential of process optimisation of the current “state of the art” plant. The specific GHG emissions of the process chain can thus be nearly halved from currently 27.8?t CO₂-eq./TJ to 14.8?t CO₂-eq./TJ in 2030. GHG emissions of the natural gas process chain have been analysed in detail in a previous article. Significant modifications and a decrease of specific emissions is possible, depending on the level of investment in the modernisation of the gas infrastructure and the process improvements. These mitigation options might neutralise the emission increase resulting from longer distances and energy intensive processes. In the last section two scenarios (low and high consumption) illustrate the possible development of the German gas supply until 2030, given an overall share of 8–12?% of bio methane. Considering the dynamic emission factors calculated in the former sections, the overall gas emissions and average specific emissions of German gas supply can be given. The current emissions of 215.4 million t CO₂-eq. are reduced by 25?% in the low-consumption scenario (162 million t CO₂-eq.), where consumption is reduced by 17?%. Assuming a consumption which is increased by 17?% in 2030, emissions are around 7?% higher (230.9 million t CO₂-eq.) than today. Conclusions Gaseous fuels will still play a significant role for the German energy supply in the next two decades. The GHG emissions mainly depend on the amount of gas used. Thus, energy efficiency will be a key issue in the climate and energy related policy discussion. A higher share of bio methane and high investments in mitigation and best available technologies can significantly reduce the emissions of the process chain. The combustion of bio methane is climate neutral compared to 56?t CO₂/TJ caused by the direct combustion of natural gas (or 111?t CO₂/TJ emitted by lignite). The advantage of gaseous energy carriers with the lowest levels of GHG emissions compared to other fossil fuels still remains. This holds true for fossil natural gas alone as well as for the expected future blend with bio-methane.     

The bridge between diversity and adaptivity: Answering McIntosh and Jeffrey

SUMMARY

The emerging concept of industrial ecology (IE) has been applied in practice in few case studies on local/regional industrial recycling networks. Analogously to a natural ecosystem, the aim is to develop material cycles and energy cascades between local cooperative actors. An optimal resource basis of an industrial ecosystem is the sustainable use of local renewable natural resources. In this paper, we consider the region of North Karelia in Finland, with 19 municipalities, and hence somewhat expand the system boundaries of an industrial ecosystem case study. The current situation and two scenarios of municipal heating energy production are presented. The heating system consists of individual, district and electric heating. The heat production and related greenhouse gas emissions are considered. The current fuel use is based on imported oil and regional fuels (peat, wood wastes). Also, shares for co-production of heat and electricity (CHP) are shown. In scenario one, we assume the majority of the fuel basis in oil and absence of CHP. Scenario two illustrates nearly complete dependence on regional wood wastes and firewood with the current share of CHP. The North Karelia region provides the IE theory with a fruitful case study because the supply of waste fuels and local renewables is vast and waste utilisation technologies (CHP, fluidized bed burning) constitute a significant part of energy production. Implications of the applied scenario approach are discussed in the context of regional decision making and, in particular, for its implementation with the concepts of a regional environmental management system (EMS) and a regional industrial ecosystem management system (RIEMS).     

Effects of ambient temperature on regulated gaseous and particulate emissions from gasoline-, E10- and M15-fueled vehicles

• Emissions from two sedans were tested with gasoline, E10 and M15 at 30°C and -7°C. • As the temperature decreased, the PM, PN and BC emissions increased with all fuels. • Particulate emissions with E10 and M15 were more sensitive to the temperature. • The PN and BC generated during cold start-up dominated those over the WLTC. Ambient temperature has substantial impacts on vehicle emissions, but the impacts may differ between traditional and alcohol gasolines. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature on gaseous and particulate emissions with both traditional and alcohol gasoline. Regulated gaseous, particle mass (PM), particle number (PN) and black carbon (BC) emissions from typical passenger vehicles were separately quantified with gasoline, E10 (10% ethanol and 90% gasoline by volume) and M15 (15% methanol and 85% gasoline by volume) at both 30°C and -7°C. The particulate emissions with all fuels increased significantly with decreased temperature. The PM emissions with E10 were only 48.0%–50.7% of those with gasoline at 30°C but increased to 59.2%-79.4% at -7°C. The PM emissions with M15 were comparable to those with gasoline at 30°C, but at -7°C, the average PM emissions were higher than those with gasoline. The variation trend of PN emissions was similar to that of PM emissions with changes in the fuel and temperature. At 30°C, the BC emissions were lower with E10 and M15 than with gasoline in most cases, but E10 and M15 might emit more BC than gasoline at -7°C, especially M15. The results of the transient PN and BC emission rates show that particulate emissions were dominated mainly by those emitted during the cold-start moment. Overall, the particulate emissions with E10 and M15 were more easily affected by ambient temperature, and the advantages of E10 and M15 in controlling particulate emissions declined as the ambient temperature decreased.     

Life-cycle assessment of net greenhouse-gas flux for bioenergy cropping systems.

Bioenergy cropping systems could help offset greenhouse gas emissions, but quantifying that offset is complex. Bioenergy crops offset carbon dioxide emissions by converting atmospheric CO2 to organic C in crop biomass and soil, but they also emit nitrous oxide and vary in their effects on soil oxidation of methane. Growing the crops requires energy (e.g., to operate farm machinery, produce inputs such as fertilizer) and so does converting the harvested product to usable fuels (feedstock conversion efficiency). The objective of this study was to quantify all these factors to determine the net effect of several bioenergy cropping systems on greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. We used the DAYCENT biogeochemistry model to assess soil GHG fluxes and biomass yields for corn, soybean, alfalfa, hybrid poplar, reed canarygrass, and switchgrass as bioenergy crops in Pennsylvania, USA. DAYCENT results were combined with estimates of fossil fuels used to provide farm inputs and operate agricultural machinery and fossil-fuel offsets from biomass yields to calculate net GHG fluxes for each cropping system considered. Displaced fossil fuel was the largest GHG sink, followed by soil carbon sequestration. N20 emissions were the largest GHG source. All cropping systems considered provided net GHG sinks, even when soil C was assumed to reach a new steady state and C sequestration in soil was not counted. Hybrid poplar and switchgrass provided the largest net GHG sinks, >200 g CO2e-C x m(-2) x yr(-1) for biomass conversion to ethanol, and >400 g CO2e-C x m(-2) x yr(-1) for biomass gasification for electricity generation. Compared with the life cycle of gasoline and diesel, ethanol and biodiesel from corn rotations reduced GHG emissions by approximately 40%, reed canarygrass by approximately 85%, and switchgrass and hybrid poplar by approximately 115%.     

Treibhausgas-Emissionen zukünftiger Erdgas-Bereitstellung für Deutschland

Background

Natural gas makes a significant contribution to the current energy supply and its importance, in relation to both the German and worldwide energy supplies, will increase further in decades to come. In addition to its high degree of efficiency, the low level of direct GHG combustion emissions is also an advantageous factor. However, around 90% of natural gas is methane (CH₄), which is the second most significant GHG due to its high greenhouse potential (21 times higher than CO₂). Therefore, high levels of direct gas losses of natural gas in its production, processing, transport and distribution could neutralise its low emission advantages. This is particularly apparent when considering the growing distances between production and use, the demanding production processes and the upcoming worldwide market for LNG (liquefied natural gas).

Aim

This paper aims to analyse and illustrate the future GHG emissions of the whole process chain of natural gas (indirect emissions) to be supplied to the German border over the next 2 decades. This should allow the comparison of total GHG emissions (indirect and direct) of natural gas with the GHG emissions of other fossil fuels. By considering likely changes in gas origin as well as dynamic changes in the infrastructure and technology of gas production, processing and transport until 2030, all relevant factors are included. The study focuses on the emissions of Russian natural gas as Russia is already, and will be in the future, the most important gas supplier to the German and European gas markets.

Results and Discussion

The analysis illustrates a significant change in the gas supply over the next two decades. The EU Gas Fields are in decline and it is predicted that these will run dry. In parallel the share of Russian and Norwegian natural gas, and also the levels of LNG production (e.g. from Algeria or Egypt), will increase. Although the potential for GHG emissions tends to grow as a result of greater transport distances and demanding production and processing activities, high investment in necessary mitigation options (e.g. through replacing older and inefficient technology; updating to state-of-the-art technology) may neutralise the increase. The overall result of these counteracting trends will be to decrease GHG emissions, in a range of around 12% per TJ of direct emissions of natural gas, depending on the level of investment in the modernisation of the Russian gas infrastructure and the improvements of the LNG process. In the two given scenarios the indirect emissions of the natural gas used in Germany will decrease from about 23 million t CO₂-eq (2005) to 19.5 or 17.6 million t CO₂-eq in the year 2030. In spite of a significant higher gas consumption the emissions are reduced in the first scenario due to technical modifications. In the second scenario the emission reduction is based on the lower gas consumption.

Conclusions

At present, the indirect GHG emissions of the natural gas process chain are comparable to the indirect emissions produced by oil and coal. The emission trend of the natural gas process chain will markedly decrease if the mitigation options are followed consistently. However, in order to ensure the long-term security of natural gas supply for future decades, a high level of investment is essential. With regard to future emissions, the best available technology and, therefore, that which is most economically feasible in the long term, should be used. Under these conditions natural gas — as the fossil fuel with the lowest levels of GHG emissions — can play a major role in the transition to a renewable energy supply for the future.     

Impact of gasoline engine deposits on light duty vehicle emissions: in-use case study in Beijing, China

Tailpipe emissions from light-duty gasoline vehicles usually deteriorate over time. The accumulation of engine deposits due to inadequate gasoline detergency is considered to be one of the major causes of such emission deterioration. Six in-use light-duty gasoline vehicles in Beijing were tested to investigate the impact of engine deposits on emissions of hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO _x ). Emissions under cold start and hot running test conditions from the six light duty vehicles were measured before and after engine deposits were removed. Results show that although individual vehicles reacted differently for each of the pollutants, elimination of engine deposits on average reduced HC emissions under hot running conditions by 29.4%, CO emissions under cold start conditions by 23.0% and CO emissions under hot running conditions by 35.5% (t < 0.05 in all cases). No pollutant emissions increased with statistical significance (t < 0.05) after the removal of engine deposits. Variations of emission changes upon removal of engine deposits were observed. Such variations are in line with previous studies, implying that the impact patterns of engine deposits on vehicle emissions may be subject to many influencing factors that are not fully understood and difficult to control under all conditions. A statistical view of the impact of engine deposits on vehicle emissions may be appropriate for evaluation of emissions reductions across a city or a country. It is necessary to maintain sufficient and effective gasoline fuel detergency in practice to keep the engines clean and in turn reduce vehicle emissions.     

燃用甲醇燃料的发动机尾气排放

本文主要报导了在二冲程、四冲程汽油机及柴油机上燃用甲醇-汽油混合燃料、M_(100)甲醇燃料的发动机尾气排放方面所做的研究,并与燃用汽油、柴油的尾气排放进行了对照。结果表明,无论是甲醇-汽油混合燃料,还是M_(100)甲醇燃料尾气排放,都较汽油、柴油尾气排放的常规污染物,均有不同程度的减少。因此,应用甲醇燃料对改善环境是有益的。     

Tiefentschwefelte Kraftstoffe

In recent years, much attention has been given to the desulphurization of fuels like diesel oil and gasoline, since exhaust gases containing SOx cause air pollution and acid rain. Moreover, a lower sulphur content of fuels would allow the use of new engines and catalytic systems for the reduction of CO, particle and NOx-emissions, and a more efficient fuel consumption. The S-level in fuels is presently limited in Germany for gasoline and diesel oll to 150 ppm and 350 ppm, respectively. In 2005 the level will be decreased Europe-wide for all vehicle-fuels down to 50 ppm; in some countries, fuels are or will be on the market with even less sulphur. The current technology of hydrodesulphurization (heterogeneous, catalyzed hydrorreating of organic sulphur compounds) can desulphurize quite adequately down to today’s S-level. The process, however, is limited for the production of ultra-low sulphur fuels, and the expenses (pressure, reactor size, investment costs, energy consumption, specific active catalysts) are high to meet future requirements. alternative processes, which are not limited to hydrotreating, are therefore desirable. Beside an overview about hydrotreating, this paper presents two quite different alternatives: Extraction of sulphur compounds by ionic liquids and the synthetic production of S-free fuels from natural gas by Fischer-Tropsch-synthesis. Ionic liquids (ILs) are low melting (<100°C) salts which represent a new class of non-molecular, ionic solvents. In the experiments presented, extraction of model diesel oils (dibenzothiophene and dodecanthiol in n-dodecane) as well as of a real predesulphurized diesel oil (with about 400 ppm S) were investigated. The results show the excellent and selective extraction properties of ILs for organic sulphur compounds, especially with regard to those compounds which are very difficult to remove by common hydrodesulphurization. As expected, the desulphurization by extraction is much more complicated in case of real diesel oil (compared to a model oil) due to its complex chemical composition including many different sulphur compounds and other impurities like organic nitrogen and metal-compounds. Nevertheless, the results with pre-desulphurized diesel oil are also very promising. So, extraction of sulphur components by ILs is a new approach for deep desulphurization of diesel oil. The application of very mild process conditions (low pressure and temperature) in comparison to traditional hydrotreating is an additional advantage of this new concept. An alternative to today’s fuels based on crude oil is the production of gasoline and diesel oil from natural gas (or other fossil fuels like coal) by Fischer-Tropsch-synthesis (FTS). The products like diesel oil are completely free of sulphur and other impurities like nitrogen and metal compounds. Although several FTS-processes have been investigated and developed, and some processes are already running on a technical scale, a real breakthrough was not obtained up to now. The production costs of these capital-intensive processes are probably above the breakeven point, at least at today’s oil price. In this paper, a ‘lowcost’ process is discussed, which is based on nitrogen-rich syngas. In contrast to classical FTS-processes with nitrogen-free syngas, the investment costs are probably lower: The syngas is produced by partial oxidation with ait, which eliminates the need of an air separation plant, while a process with nitrogen-rich syngas does not utilize a recycle loop and a recycle compressor.     

Auf der Suche nach den Treibstoffen der Zukunft

The climatically-relevant emission of CO₂ which results from motor vehicle traffic offers a challenge for the automobile industry to produce highly efficient and economical motor vehicles. Furthermore, the production of fuels from regenerative energies may provide a more significant contribution over the long-term to make our mobility more compatible to the climate and to reduce our dependence on crude oil importation. Substantial reductions in emissions can be achieved through the application of regenerative fuels, especially in combination with more energy-efficient hybrid or fuel-cell vehicles, or through the addition of biogenic components to conventional fuels. Coordinated efforts between the automobile industry, the energy industries and the responsible politicians are mandatory in order to achieve ecologically-tolerable motor vehicle traffic.     

汽油尾气对人肺腺癌A549细胞的氧化损伤效应研究

为研究汽油燃烧汽车尾气(简称汽油尾气)的氧化损伤效应及其可能的毒作用机制,以人肺腺癌A549细胞为研究对象,采用MTT试验测试汽油尾气对细胞的毒性作用;通过测定细胞内超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)及谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(GSH-Px)活性了解细胞在汽油尾气作用下抗氧化水平的改变;并用彗星试验检测汽油尾气对细胞DNA氧化损伤及修复的影响．结果显示汽油尾气在浓度≥0．0625L·mL-1时即显示出明显的细胞毒性;汽油尾气作用下A549 细胞SOD及GSH-Px活性均下降,在一定的浓度范围内与对照组比较有统计学差异(p<0．05)．汽油尾气可诱导 A549细胞不同程度的DNA氧化损伤,且细胞拖尾率和DNA迁移长度均随着汽油尾气浓度的增加而增加;损伤后 A549细胞修复发生较快,3小时内基本修复完全．提示汽油尾气具有明显的细胞毒性作用,可影响A549细胞抗氧化酶活性,并可导致DNA的氧化损伤．     

Fuel consumption and gasoline prices: The role of assortative matching between households and automobiles

Analyses of policies to reduce gasoline consumption have focused on two effects, a compositional effect on the fuel economy of the automotive fleet and a utilization effect on how much people drive. However, the literature has missed a third effect: a matching effect, in which policies change how high-utilization households are matched to fuel-efficient vehicles in equilibrium. We show that higher gas prices should lead to stronger assortative matching. Empirical estimates using US micro-level data are consistent with this hypothesis. We find a $0.50 increase in the gas tax would reduce US gas consumption by 0.8% through the matching effect alone, bringing annual environmental benefits of about $1.7 billion.     

A comparative study of particle size distribution from two oxygenated fuels and diesel fuel

Oxygenated fuels are known to reduce particulate matter (PM) emissions from diesel engines. In this study, 100% soy methyl ester (SME) biodiesel fuel (B100) and a blend of 10% acetal denoted by A-diesel with diesel fuel were tested as oxygenated fuels. Particle size and number distributions from a diesel engine fueled with oxygenated fuels and base diesel fuel were measured using an Electrical Low Pressure Impactor (ELPI). Measurements were made at ten steady-state operational modes of various loads at two engine speeds. It was found that the geometric mean diameters of particles from SME and Adiesel were lower than that from base diesel fuel. Compared to diesel fuel, SME emitted more ultra-fine particles at rated speed while emitting less ultra-fine particles at maximum speed. Ultra-fine particle number concentrations of A-diesel were much higher than those of base diesel fuel at most test modes.     

Low carbon transition options for Australia

A rapid and sustained transition to new energy systems for Australia was explored using the OzECCO model implemented in a systems dynamics simulation package. OzECCO simulates the close relationship between energy use and economic productivity at a sectoral level to explore scenarios of economic and biophysical function based on a calibration period of 1981-2005 and a scenario period 2006-2051. The core scenarios showed that a fully renewable (the renewables transition) or an advanced fossil and nuclear transition (the conventional wisdom transition), can reduce accumulated CO2 emissions from the Australian economy for the period 2006-2051 by 50%. Adding a low growth economy where GDP averages less than 1% annually extends this to a 60% reduction. Extensive reforestation of more than 50 million hectares extends the total reduction to 70% over the 45 year period and provides at 2051 a per capita emissions level of one to two tonnes which will be necessary if developed and developing countries are to converge on equal atmospheric impacts with reasonable lifestyle opportunities. Central to both the renewables and conventional-wisdom scenarios are substantial reductions in the physical dimensions of personal consumption, and the transfer of these avoided consumption opportunities to an intergenerational sovereign wealth fund. This fund, held outside day-to-day domestic activities, can buffer Australian society and future generations against shocks, financial or physical, that might lie waiting and unanticipated in our future. This study did not explore phasing out Australia's extensive coal and natural gas exports although their impact on global atmospheric concentrations is significant. Domestic combustion and exported fuels will add 82 billion tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere in the scenario period 2006-2051, equivalent to a 20 ppm rise in atmospheric concentrations. The low-growth renewables transition with unconstrained exports reduces this rise to 15 ppm. The continued expansion of fuel exports thus expands atmospheric risk in physical terms but also entrains policy and strategic risks should carbon-based industries become pariahs in international commerce and political relations.     

Brown backstops versus the green paradox

Anticipated climate policies are ineffective when fossil fuel owners respond by shifting supply intertemporally (the green paradox). This mechanism relies crucially on the exhaustibility of fossil fuels. We analyze the effect of anticipated climate policies on emissions in a simple model with two fossil fuels: one scarce and dirty (e.g. oil), the other abundant and dirtier (e.g. coal). We derive conditions for a ‘green orthodox’: anticipated climate policies may reduce current emissions. The model can also be used to analyze spatial carbon leakage. Calibrations suggest that intertemporal carbon leakage (from 0% to 8%) is a relatively minor concern.     

PM2.5: global progress in controlling the motor vehicle contribution

It is well established that ambient particles in the size range of 2.5 microns or less case a wide variety of adverse health effects. According to a recent study from the World Health Organization, in 2010 these effects resulted in approximately 3.2million premature deaths with vehicles being one of the significant contributors. Diesel vehicle particulate emissions which are virtually all smaller than 2.5 microns raise additional special concerns due to their carcinogenicity and high ratio of black carbon （BC） to organic carbon; black carbon has recently been found to be the second most important contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. Other pollutants emitted by diesels and other vehicles such as the oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds also contribute to ambient particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns in size （PM2.5） after undergoing secondary transformations in the atrno- sphere. Technologies have dramatically reduce vehicle been developed that can emissions when clean, low sulfur fuels are available and these technologies are being phased in throughout the industrialized world resulting in a global decrease in particulate matter （PM） and BC emissions from vehicles. However the vehicle population is growing rapidly in the developing world, leading to increases in emissions in many countries. Unless these rapidly industrializing countries move to state of the art vehicles and clean fuels, global PM, BC and NOx emissions from road vehicles will start to turn up over the next 10 to 15 years.     

Is there really a green paradox?

In the absence of a CO₂ tax, the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of CO₂. Since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of CO₂ will decrease, the effect on global warming is unclear. Green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal, but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit CO₂ emissions. We establish these results by analyzing depletion of non-renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop, paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited. We also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non-renewable resource is owned by a monopolist. Finally, we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises, a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ, thus boosting green welfare. However, if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet, full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare.