Population Viability Analysis for an Endangered Plant

Abstract: Demographic modeling is used to understand the population viability of Furbish's lousewort, Pedicularis furbishiae , a perennial plant species endemic to the St. John River Valley in northern Maine. Environment-specific summaries of demographic parameters (survivorship, growth, and fecundity) over four years, organized into stage-based projection matrices, provide predictions of future population dynamics given a deterministic extension of past conditions. Stochastic modeling, using (I) empirically observed variation in demographic parameters, and (2) estimated rates of natural catastrophes, leads to predictions of extinction probability.
P. furbishiae viability has varied widely over the study period Viable populations with finite rates of increase > 1 are found where cover is low, woody plants do not dominate, and disturbance does not occur. Rates of increase vary over time, suggesting that stochastic analyses would be realistic. Stochastic measures of population viability incorporating environmental variation suggest that early successional environments, especially wetter sites, can support viable populations in the absence of disturbance. However; observed rates of natural catastrophe dominate viability estimates of individual populations. Metapopulation dynamics feature extinction rates that are greater than recolonization rates, and may be affected by land use in the watershed Species management needs to consider a large-scale view of the riverine corridor.     

Population Viability Analysis of Captive and Released Bearded Vulture Populations

With the computer program VORTEX I ran a series of simulations of the Bearded Vulture ( Gypaetus barbatus ) population held in captivity in European zoos and of the population released in the Alps. The simulations showed that the risk of extinction of the captive population with the extraction rates currently in use is low. It seems possible to maintain the current release rate of two fledglings per year at each of the four release sites in the Alps, but it does not seem possible to increase the release rate by expanding the project to other European mountains without dangerously depleting the captive population. The models showed that the most effective way to increase the release rate without increasing the captive population size is by improving hatching success in captivity. The information on the demographic parameters of the Bearded Vulture population released in the Alps was not good enough to predict the ultimate fate of the present population or to allow for recommendations on how long the population should continue to be supplemented. Although it will be necessary to wait some years to see if Bearded Vultures are able to breed in the wild in the Alps and to estimate fecundity rates, it should be possible to improve the monitoring of the individuals released to obtain more-precise survival estimates. The models of the captive and released population also showed that it should at least be possible to have an artificially supplemented Bearded Vulture population in the Alps, but because this is not the goal of the present reintroduction project, the organizations involved should decide whether this is a politically or economically desirable goal.     

Population Viability Analysis with Species Occurrence Data from Museum Collections

Abstract: The most comprehensive data on many species come from scientific collections. Thus, we developed a method of population viability analysis (PVA) in which this type of occurrence data can be used. In contrast to classical PVA, our approach accounts for the inherent observation error in occurrence data and allows the estimation of the population parameters needed for viability analysis. We tested the sensitivity of the approach to spatial resolution of the data, length of the time series, sampling effort, and detection probability with simulated data and conducted PVAs for common, rare, and threatened species. We compared the results of these PVAs with results of standard method PVAs in which observation error is ignored. Our method provided realistic estimates of population growth terms and quasi‐extinction risk in cases in which the standard method without observation error could not. For low values of any of the sampling variables we tested, precision decreased, and in some cases biased estimates resulted. The results of our PVAs with the example species were consistent with information in the literature on these species. Our approach may facilitate PVA for a wide range of species of conservation concern for which demographic data are lacking but occurrence data are readily available.     

Population Viability Analysis of Spring Chinook Salmon in the South Umpqua River, Oregon

Run sizes of spring chinook salmon in the South Umpqua River in Oregon have declined dramatically since the early part of this century. Habitat degradation is thought to be an important factor contributing to the decline of this stock, and qualitative assessment suggests the stock is at moderate risk of extinction. We use data from this and similar stocks to develop an age-structured, density-dependent model of the population dynamics that incorporates both demographic and environmental stochasticity. Under the assumption of no further habitat destruction, the population is predicted to have a greater than 95% probability of persistence for 200 years. However, sensitivity analysis for the density-dependence estimated from historical run-return data shows that substantially lower predicted viabilities are also statistically consistent with the data. A model that simulates continued habitat degradation results in almost certain extinction within 100 years.     

From Population Viability Analysis to Coviability of Farmland Biodiversity and Agriculture

Substantial declines in farmland biodiversity have been reported in Europe for several decades. Agricultural changes have been identified as a main driver of these declines. Although different agrienvironmental schemes have been implemented, their positive effect on biodiversity is relatively unknown. This raises the question as to how to reconcile farming production and biodiversity conservation to operationalize a sustainable and multifunctional agriculture. We devised a bioeconomic model and conducted an analysis based on coviability of farmland biodiversity and agriculture. The coviability approach extended population viability analyses by including bioeconomic risk. Our model coupled stochastic dynamics of both biodiversity and farming land‐uses selected at the microlevel with public policies at the macrolevel on the basis of financial incentives (taxes or subsidies) for land uses. The coviability approach made it possible for us to evaluate bioeconomic risks of these public incentives through the probability of satisfying a mix of biodiversity and economic constraints over time. We calibrated the model and applied it to a community of 34 common birds in metropolitan France at the small agricultural regions scale. We identified different public policies and scenarios with tolerable (0–0%) agroecological risk and modeled their outcomes up to 2050. Budgetary, economic, and ecological (based on Farmland Bird Index) constraints were essential to understanding the set of viable public policies. Our results suggest that some combinations of taxes on cereals and subsidies on grasslands could be relevant to develop a multifunctional agriculture. Moreover, the flexibility and multicriteria viewpoint underlying the coviability approach may help in the implementation of adaptive management. Del Análisis de Viabilidad Poblacional a la Co‐Viabilidad de la Agricultura y la Biodiversidad de las Tierras de Cultivo     

Population Viability Analysis for a Small Population of Red-Cockaded Woodpeckers and an Evaluation of Enhancement Strategies

We performed a series of population and pedigree analyses to examine the viability of a small Red-cockaded Woodpecker ( Picoides borealis ) population located at the Savannah River Site, in Barnwell and Aiken counties of South Carolina. The population's existence and future survival are precarious. As few as four individuals, including just one breeding pair, comprised this population in 1985. Now, primarily because of experimental transformation of birds from other areas, the population has increased to 25. As of 1990, genealogy pedigree analysis showed that the respective contribution of 14 founders to the extant population has not been equal. Founder gender equivalents are low (5.4) but could reach 9.2 if poorly-represented founders were to produce offspring. The fraction of founder gene diversity retained in the current population is 0.91. Successful recovery strategies would ensure 95% probability of population survival while maintaining 90% heterozygosity for 200 years. Viability analyses indicated that, depending on relative effects of inbreeding depression and stochastic environmental events, the Savannah River Site population has a 68–100% chance of extinction during this period. Annual translocation into the population of at least three females and two males for a 10-year period will achieve a 96% probability of survival for 200 years. Even with translocation of numerous males and females per year (up to 50 of each), the 90% heterozygosity goal may not be achieved. We discuss recommendations for choosing individuals for translocation logistical constraints on achieving recovery objectives, and limitations of our modeling approach.     

The Reliability of Using Population Viability Analysis for Risk Classification of Species

I examine whether or not it is appropriate to use extinction probabilities generated by population viability analyses, based on best estimates for model parameters, as criteria for listing species in Red Data Book categories as recently proposed by the World Conservation Union. Such extinction probabilities are influenced by how accurately model parameters are estimated and by how accurately the models depict actual population dynamics. I evaluate the effect of uncertainty in parameter estimation through simulations. Simulations based on Steller sea lions were used to evaluate bias and precision in estimates of probability of extinction and to consider the performance of two proposed classification schemes. Extinction time estimates were biased (because of violation of the assumption of stable age distribution) and underestimated the variability of probability of extinction for a given time (primarily because of uncertainty in parameter estimation). Bias and precision in extinction probabilities are important when these probabilities are used to compare the risk of extinction between species. Suggestions are given for population viability analysis techniques that incorporate parameter uncertainty. I conclude that testing classification schemes with simulations using quantitative performance objectives should precede adoption of quantitative listing criteria.