云南稻核心种质苗期与孕穗期耐冷性特点及关系分析

以544份云南地方稻核心种质为材料,在昆明自然低温(苗期平均5.5～12.3℃,孕穗期平均17.8℃)冷害下,按籼粳、稻作区进行云南稻核心种质苗期耐冷性与孕穗期耐冷性的特点及关系研究.结果表明:(1)苗期耐冷性与孕穗期耐冷性密切相关,苗期耐冷性强的材料表现为孕穗期株高、剑叶长和宽、穗颈长、穗下节长、1～2节长、穗长较长、穗粒数较多,耐冷性较强.通过对苗期耐冷性的严格选择,可以间接获得孕穗期耐冷性较强的材料.(2)苗期和孕穗期耐冷性在籼粳间、稻作区间差异明显.籼粳间均表现为粳稻强于籼稻;稻作区间苗期耐冷性为滇中一季籼粳稻区和滇南单双季籼稻区最强,滇中一季籼粳稻区和滇西北高寒粳稻区孕穗期耐冷性较强,揭示了水稻苗期与穗期耐冷性的形成演化机制存在一致性和差异性.     

云南籼稻核心种质回交后代苗期耐冷性研究

早春低温和连续阴雨是导致籼稻烂秧的主要因素之一,筛选耐冷的种质资源,将耐冷性基因导入高产的籼稻品种之中是防止低温冷害最为经济有效的方法。加强籼籼稻杂交后代的苗期耐冷性研究,可为籼稻耐冷性育种提供条件。以235份云南籼稻核心种质和云南主栽籼稻品种滇屯502(Oryzasatica)配制的杂种F5、BC1F4、BC2F3和BC3F2代为材料,在昆明自然条件下,对亲本及其后代进行苗期(三叶)耐冷性研究。结果表明,(1)不同回交世代与杂种与亲本间的苗期耐冷强弱差异较大,总体趋势为回交供体亲本>F5>BC1F4>BC2F3>BC3F2;揭示了随着回交世代的增加,其回交杂种苗期耐冷性减弱,越来越趋于轮回亲本,在耐冷育种上对回交供体亲本及其早世代材料进行选择更易获得苗期强耐冷材料。(2)同一稻作区,回交供体亲本的苗期耐冷强于杂种后代;稻作区划间,回交供体亲本及杂种F5总趋势相近,滇中一季籼稻粳稻区和滇东北高原粳稻区材料耐冷最强,而BC1F4、BC2F3和BC3F23个回交世代存在一定差异。     

不同生态下云南稻核心种质孕穗期耐冷性状的表型多样性差异

以504份云南地方稻核心种质为材料,在昆明自然低温平均18℃(冷害)和新平27℃(正常)条件下进行孕穗期耐冷性状的表犁多样性生态差异分析.结果表明:(1)在3种生态环境下,云南稻核心种质11个耐冷性状的平均值、标准差、变异系数等参数存在一定差异,总趋势呈现籼稻(Indica)不同环境间这3个特征值差异较粳稻(Japonica)明显;弱耐冷系统群差异较强耐冷系统群明显.(2)不同环境间11个耐冷性状Shannon-weaver遗传多样性指数存在明显差异,体现为正常环境高于冷害环境,粳稻(Japonica)高于籼稻(Indica),强耐冷材料高于弱耐冷材料.这种差异主要由剑叶长、穗颈长、穗下节长、1～2节长、穗长、主穗实粒数和结实率等7个耐冷性状差异所致.     

云南粳稻核心种质杂种后代孕穗期耐冷性研究

以236份云南地方粳稻核心种质和云南主栽梗稻Oryza satica品种合系35配制的杂种F5、BC1F4、BC2F3和BC3F2为材料,在昆明自然低温平均17.8℃(冷害)条件下,对亲本及其后代进行孕穗期耐冷性研究.结果表明:①亲本耐冷性状间的相关性明显高于其杂种后代,不同世代间总体趋势为随着回交世代增加其性状间相关性减弱.在亲本及其杂种后代间耐冷指标性状穗颈长、穗下节长、每穗实粒数、每穗秕粒数与结实率均呈较高的(≥0.370)极显著(n=236,R0.01=0.181)相关.②株高、穗颈长、穗下节长等耐冷性状在亲本强弱耐冷系统群间的差异明显,表现为亲本耐冷性强的材料秆和穗较长、穗粒数较多,同一性状变异程度减小.但随着回交代数的增加,这些性状的平均值逐渐趋同于轮回亲本,差异减小.③穗颈长、穗下节长、每穗实粒数、每穗秕粒数与结实率在5个稻作区间的变化规律呈现一致性,亲本和F5的差异较大,而BC2F4、BC2F3和BC3F2的差异较小,且趋同于轮回亲本.通过连续回交,在BC3F1即可获得耐冷性状表现良好的材料.     

云南稻种磷高效特性相关性状的生态差异

云南不仅是世界稻种(Oryza sativa L.)最大的遗传和生态多样性中心之一,也是中国土壤类型最丰富的地区;中国南方和云南耕地65%以上缺乏有效磷,土壤缺磷已成为稻作生产的主要限制因子.该文中,缺磷(速效磷6.26 mg·kg-1)与适磷(速效磷40 mg·kg-1)酸性红壤进行比较,以相对茎蘖数(RTA)、相对总质量(RTB)、相对地上质量(RDWU)和相对地下质量(RDWG)为参数,研究了来自云南省16个州市5个稻作区577份水稻核心种质的磷高效基因型及其生态差异,结果表明:低磷胁迫下云南稻核心种质的相对茎蘖数、相对总质量、相对地上质量和相对地下质量密切相关,这4个性状是水稻磷高效鉴定较可靠和方便的指标,并筛选出10个磷高效品种;磷高效基因型在籼粳间存在较大差异,但丁颖分类性状中的水陆、粘糯间差异较小;水稻磷高效品种广泛分布于5个稻作区和绝大多数州市,特别是磷高效极强品种主要来自云南稻种的遗传多样性中心(思茅、临沧、西双版纳、德宏和文山州)和基因多样性中心(南部边缘水陆兼作区).这些结果有力地支持了水稻磷高效特性与酸性红壤和遗传多样性中心有关,更好地理解水稻磷高效特性的地理生态和遗传多样性机制.     

低磷胁迫下云南稻形态性状的氮肥反应

采用盆栽试验每份材料栽2桶,每盆装4 kg低磷酸性红壤(速效磷2.53 mg·kg-1、速效氮156.7 mg·kg-1和pH=6.03),设置不施氮肥(速效氮156.7 mg·kg-1)和施氮肥(速效氮490.0 mg·kg-1)两种处理对539份云南稻核心种质17个形态性状及其相对指标,研究低磷胁迫下云南稻形态性状的氮肥效应结果表明:总体上低磷胁迫下云南稻核心种质籼稻氮效反应明显比粳稻敏感;按氮反应相对指标将云南稻种17形态性状划分为氮反应的强敏感、中敏感、弱敏感和不敏感型四种类型;揭示了低磷胁迫下云南稻种氮高效鉴定指标以相对穗干质量和相对总干质量为主,相对穗长、秆干质量、地上干质量、根干质量和茎蘖数可作为参考指标,其中穗干质量为氮反应的强敏感型,总干质量、地上干质量、秆干质量和茎蘖数属中敏感型,根干质量属弱敏感型和穗长属不敏感型.另外,低磷胁迫下云南稻种8个对氮反应敏感相对性状无论是在539份云南稻核心种质及其籼粳亚种间,还是在五个稻作区间总趋势是一致的;既证实了该文提出的低磷胁迫下8个氮反应敏感指标性状是十分可靠的,又揭示了低磷胁迫下5大稻作区氮反应的生态差异和土攘类型多样性是云南成为亚洲栽培稻籼粳分化中心之一的驱动力.     

云南稻核心种质耐低磷性状与籼粳亚种间的关系

在土壤有效磷含量6．26mg／kg和40mg／kg条件下对548份云南地方稻核心种质进行形态性状与籼粳亚种鉴别性状间的耐低磷特性研究．以明确籼粳亚种及其中间型耐低磷特性有无明显差异以及耐低磷特性和籼粳分化相互关系。结果表明：（1）相对分蘖力、相对有效穗、相对总干物质量和相对地下干物质量4个耐低磷指标性状可作为水稻耐低磷能力强弱评价的理想指标；低磷胁迫下耐低磷指标性状可作为水稻磷高效基因型筛选指标。（2）云南稻核心种质由95份籼、178份偏籼、85份偏粳和190份粳稻组成．籼粳亚种间平均耐低磷能力存在明显差异：相对分蘖力、有效穗、地下干物质量、总干物质量平均值由大到小依次为籼、偏籼、偏粳、粳．耐低磷能力随程氏指数的增大，呈现递减趋势。（3）云南稻核心种质6个籼粳分类性状和耐低磷指标性状多数呈显著负相关．耐低磷特性和籼粳分化密切相关。     

不同种源地云南稻核心种质主要形态性状的遗传特征

揭示云南稻核心种质资源特性、遗传变异特点,对资源的合理利用,指导育种工作,具有重要的意义.以541份云南稻核心种质为材料,在昆明地区生态条件下对其11个形态性状的遗传参数进行研究.结果表明:所研究的11个形态性状广义遗传力在65?%之间,穗颈长、实粒数、秕粒数和结实率的遗传力最大,且均表现出较大的遗传变异,选择潜力较大; 同一性状的遗传差异籼粳间不明显,而稻作区间则存在一定差异.利用本群体进行新品种选育时,应考虑各形态性状的表现特点和遗传潜力大小.对穗颈长、实粒数和结实率系统选育时,滇中一季籼稻粳稻区、滇南单双季籼稻区和南部边缘水陆稻区3个稻作区的材料选择效果较好.     

云南稻核心种质F2主要形态性状变异及地理生态研究

种质资源是水稻育种的重要基因来源.掌握育种材料遗传背景信息,可为发掘优异种质,选育优良性状新品种提供依据.以548份云南稻核心种和云南主栽籼稻品利慎屯502(Oryza satica)、粳稻品种合系35(Oryzasatica)配制的杂种F2(498份)为材料,采用群体遗传学的方法,研究云南稻核心种质杂种F2代的11个形态性状的综合变异系数、遗传多样性指数(Shannon指数)及其地理分布.结果表明:(1)F2存在明显的性状分化和遗传变异,以有效穗、穗颈长、穗下节长、每穗实粒数、秕粒数、总粒数和结实率的综合变异系数高,遗传多样性丰富;(2)滇西南(临沧、思茅、德宏、西双版纳)和滇东南(文山、红河)的材料在表型性状上存在更大的分化,综合变异系数高,遗传多样性丰富;保山、昭通、曲靖次之;怒江、丽江、迪庆、大理最低.     

引入养殖鳖对稻田土壤固氮菌的影响

土壤微生物是土壤生态系统的重要组成部分,为了解稻田综合种养殖模式的土壤细菌尤其是功能型菌群的群落结构特征,采用高通量测序技术对稻鳖共作组(R-T)与稻田单作组(R-M)两种种养模式下根系土壤微生物(nif H基因)多样性特征进行比较.结果显示,稻田根系土壤中,属分类级别的固氮菌主要为慢生根瘤菌属(Bradyrhizobium)、地杆菌属(Geobacter)、脱硫弧菌属(Desulfovibrio)、除硫单胞菌属(Desulfuromonas)、嗜盐红螺菌属(Halorhodospira)、固氮菌属(Azotobacter)、脱硫球茎菌属(Desulfobulbus)、甲基单胞菌属(Methylomonas)、固氮螺菌属(Azospirillum)、Pseudacidovorax、Anaeromyxobacter、Sideroxydans共12类.R-T组根系土壤固氮菌的多样性指数高于R-T组,为6.85±0.07.稻田根系土壤固氮菌在不同种养模式间的差异性占23.86%,在不同水稻生长时期的差异性占16.97%.本研究表明,水稻的生长时期与不同种养模式对稻田根系土壤固氮微生物均具有影响,且生长时期对稻田根系土壤固氮微生物的影响更大.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.