Effects of Forest Fragmentation on Seed Dispersal and Seedling Establishment in Ornithochorous Trees

Abstract: Habitat fragmentation increases seed dispersal limitation across the landscape and may also affect subsequent demographic stages such as seedling establishment. Thus, the development of adequate plans for forest restoration requires an understanding of mechanisms by which fragmentation hampers seed delivery to deforested areas and knowledge of how fragmentation affects the relationship between seed‐deposition patterns and seedling establishment. We evaluated the dispersal and recruitment of two bird‐dispersed, fleshy‐fruited tree species (Crataegus monogyna and Ilex aquifolium) in fragmented secondary forests of northern Spain. Forest fragmentation reduced the probability of seed deposition for both trees because of decreased availability of woody perches and fruit‐rich neighborhoods for seed dispersers, rather than because of reductions in tree cover by itself. The effects of fragmentation went beyond effects on the dispersal stage in Crataegus because seedling establishment was proportional to the quantities of bird‐dispersed seeds arriving at microsites. In contrast, postdispersal mortality in Ilex was so high that it obscured the seed‐to‐seedling transition. These results suggest that the effects of fragmentation are not necessarily consistent across stages of recruitment across species. Habitat management seeking to overcome barriers to forest recovery must include the preservation, and even the planting, of fleshy‐fruited trees in the unforested matrix as a measure to encourage frugivorous birds to enter into open and degraded areas. An integrative management strategy should also explicitly consider seed‐survival expectancies at microhabitats to preserve plant‐population dynamics and community structure in fragmented landscapes.     

Assessment of the Conservation Efforts to Prevent Extinction of the Iberian Lynx

Abstract: The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) may be the first charismatic felid to become extinct in a high‐income country, despite decades of study and much data that show extinction is highly probable. The International Union for Conservation of Nature categorizes it as critically endangered; about 200 free‐ranging individuals remain in two populations in southern Spain. Conservation measures aimed at averting extirpation have been extensively undertaken with 4 of the former 10 Iberian lynx populations recorded 25 years ago. Two of the four populations have been extirpated. The number of individuals in the third population have declined by 83%, and in the fourth the probability of extirpation has increased from 34% to 95%. Major drivers of the pending extinction are the small areas to which conservation measures have been applied; lack of incorporation of evidence‐based conservation, scientific monitoring, and adaptive management into conservation efforts; a lack of continuity in recovery efforts, and distrust by conservation agencies of scientific information. In contrast to situations in which conservation and economic objectives conflict, in the case of the Iberian lynx all stakeholders desire the species to be conserved.     

Effects of Native and Non‐Native Vertebrate Mutualists on Plants

Abstract: Extinctions can leave species without mutualist partners and thus potentially reduce their fitness. In cases where non‐native species function as mutualists, mutualism disruption associated with species’ extinction may be mitigated. To assess the effectiveness of mutualist species with different origins, we conducted a meta‐analysis in which we compared the effectiveness of pollination and seed‐dispersal functions of native and non‐native vertebrates. We used data from 40 studies in which a total of 34 non‐native vertebrate mutualists in 20 geographic locations were examined. For each plant species, opportunistic non‐native vertebrate pollinators were generally less effective mutualists than native pollinators. When native mutualists had been extirpated, however, plant seed set and seedling performance appeared elevated in the presence of non‐native mutualists, although non‐native mutualists had a negative overall effect on seed germination. These results suggest native mutualists may not be easily replaced. In some systems researchers propose taxon substitution or the deliberate introduction of non‐native vertebrate mutualists to reestablish mutualist functions such as pollination and seed dispersal and to rescue native species from extinction. Our results also suggest that in places where all native mutualists are extinct, careful taxon substitution may benefit native plants at some life stages.     

Birds as Suppliers of Seed Dispersal in Temperate Ecosystems: Conservation Guidelines from Real‐World Landscapes

Abstract: Seed dispersal by animals is considered a pivotal ecosystem function that drives plant‐community dynamics in natural habitats and vegetation recovery in human‐altered landscapes. Nevertheless, there is a lack of suitable ecological knowledge to develop basic conservation and management guidelines for this ecosystem service. Essential questions, such as how well the abundance of frugivorous animals predicts seeding function in different ecosystems and how anthropogenic landscape heterogeneity conditions the role of dispersers, remain poorly answered. In three temperate ecosystems, we studied seed dispersal by frugivorous birds in landscape mosaics shaped by human disturbance. By applying a standardized design across systems, we related the frequency of occurrence of bird‐dispersed seeds throughout the landscape to the abundance of birds, the habitat features, and the abundance of fleshy fruits. Abundance of frugivorous birds in itself predicted the occurrence of dispersed seeds throughout the landscape in all ecosystems studied. Even those landscape patches impoverished due to anthropogenic disturbance received some dispersed seeds when visited intensively by birds. Nonetheless, human‐caused landscape degradation largely affected seed‐deposition patterns by decreasing cover of woody vegetation or availability of fruit resources that attracted birds and promoted seed dispersal. The relative role of woody cover and fruit availability in seed dispersal by birds differed among ecosystems. Our results suggest that to manage seed dispersal for temperate ecosystem preservation or restoration one should consider abundance of frugivorous birds as a surrogate of landscape‐scale seed dispersal and an indicator of patch quality for the dispersal function; woody cover and fruit resource availability as key landscape features that drive seedfall patterns; and birds as mobile links that connect landscape patches of different degrees of degradation and habitat quality via seed deposition.     

Use of Acoustic Tools to Reveal Otherwise Cryptic Responses of Forest Elephants to Oil Exploration

Abstract: Most evaluations of the effects of human activities on wild animals have focused on estimating changes in abundance and distribution of threatened species; however, ecosystem disturbances also affect aspects of animal behavior such as short‐term movement, activity budgets, and reproduction. It may take a long time for changes in behavior to manifest as changes in abundance or distribution. Therefore, it is important to have methods with which to detect short‐term behavioral responses to human activity. We used continuous acoustic and seismic monitoring to evaluate the short‐term effects of seismic prospecting for oil on forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) in Gabon, Central Africa. We monitored changes in elephant abundance and activity as a function of the frequency and intensity of acoustic and seismic signals from dynamite detonation and human activity. Elephants did not flee the area being explored; the relative number of elephants increased in a seasonal pattern typical of elsewhere in the ecosystem. In the exploration area, however, they became more nocturnal. Neither the intensity nor the frequency of dynamite blasts affected the frequency of calling or the daily pattern of elephant activity. Nevertheless, the shift of activity to nocturnal hours became more pronounced as human activity neared each monitored area of forest. This change in activity pattern and its likely causes would not have been detected through standard monitoring methods, which are not sensitive to behavioral changes over short time scales (e.g., dung transects, point counts) or cover a limited area (e.g., camera traps). Simultaneous acoustic monitoring of animal communication, human, and environmental sounds allows the documentation of short‐term behavioral changes in response to human disturbance.     

Meta‐Analysis of the Effects of Human Disturbance on Seed Dispersal by Animals

Animal‐mediated seed dispersal is important for sustaining biological diversity in forest ecosystems, particularly in the tropics. Forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging modify forests in myriad ways and their effects on animal‐mediated seed dispersal have been examined in many case studies. However, the overall effects of different types of human disturbance on animal‐mediated seed dispersal are still unknown. We identified 35 articles that provided 83 comparisons of animal‐mediated seed dispersal between disturbed and undisturbed forests; all comparisons except one were conducted in tropical or subtropical ecosystems. We assessed the effects of forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging on seed dispersal of fleshy‐fruited tree species. We carried out a meta‐analysis to test whether forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging affected 3 components of animal‐mediated seed dispersal: frugivore visitation rate, number of seeds removed, and distance of seed dispersal. Forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging did not affect visitation rate and were marginally associated with a reduction in seed‐dispersal distance. Hunting and selective logging, but not fragmentation, were associated with a large reduction in the number of seeds removed. Fewer seeds of large‐seeded than of small‐seeded tree species were removed in hunted or selectively logged forests. A plausible explanation for the consistently negative effects of hunting and selective logging on large‐seeded plant species is that large frugivores, as the predominant seed dispersers for large‐seeded plant species, are the first animals to be extirpated from hunted or logged forests. The reduction in forest area after fragmentation appeared to have weaker effects on frugivore communities and animal‐mediated seed dispersal than hunting and selective logging. The differential effects of hunting and selective logging on large‐ and small‐seeded tree species underpinned case studies that showed disrupted plant‐frugivore interactions could trigger a homogenization of seed traits in tree communities in hunted or logged tropical forests. Meta Análisis de los Efectos de la Perturbación Humana sobre la Dispersión de Semillas por Animales     

Extirpation of Macroalgae (Sargassum spp.) on the Subtropical East Australian Coast

Abstract: Populations of large brown algae of the Laminariales and Fucales (Phaeophyta) have declined or been extirpated from many locations on temperate coasts worldwide. We conducted field surveys and a literature review, and examined herbarium specimens, through which we discovered previously unreported extirpations of large brown algal species from a tropical and subtropical coastline. Sargassum amaliae, S. aquifolium, S. carpophyllum, S. polycystum, and S. spinifex were common habitat‐forming macroalgae that supported diverse assemblages of invertebrates and smaller algae before urbanization began in 1970 along the 45‐km length of Sunshine Coast in Queensland, Australia. Causes of these extirpations are not known, but are consistent with losses of other large brown algal species from coastal areas undergoing urbanization or eutrophication. Sargassum spp. do not have the characteristics thought to protect marine species from extinction (large geographical ranges, occurrence on many different substrata, long‐distance dispersal). Some local Sargassum spp. are endemic to eastern Australia. Abundance of Sargassum is limited by suitable substrata on the sandy southern Queensland coast (370 km). These substrata are 12 rocky headlands separated by long (5–105 km) sandy beaches. Most multicellular propagules (the only motile stage in Sargassum) settle within 1–3 m of parental thalli, which restricts long‐distance dispersal needed to maintain connectivity among populations and to recolonize areas of the headlands from which populations have been extirpated. Local Sargassum spp. could be categorized as data deficient by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), but the IUCN vulnerable category is more accurate given extirpations, limited habitat, and the lack of connectivity among populations.     

Effects of Management of Domestic Dogs and Recreation on Carnivores in Protected Areas in Northern California

Abstract: In developed countries dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) are permitted to accompany human visitors to many protected areas (e.g., >96% of protected lands in California, U.S.A.), and protected‐area management often focuses on regulating dogs due to concerns about predation, competition, or transmission of disease and conflicts with human visitors. In 2004 and 2005, we investigated whether carnivore species richness and abundance were associated with management of domestic dogs and recreational visitation in protected areas in northern California. We surveyed for mammalian carnivores and human visitors in 21 recreation areas in which dogs were allowed offleash or onleash or were excluded, and we compared our observations in the recreation areas with observations in seven reference sites that were not open to the public. Carnivore abundance and species richness did not differ among the three types of recreation areas, but native carnivore species richness was 1.7 times greater (p < 0.01) and the relative abundances of native coyotes (Canis latrans) and bobcats (Lynx rufus) were over four times greater (p < 0.01) in the reference sites. Abundances of bobcats and all carnivores declined as the number of visitors increased. The policy on domestic dogs did not appear to affect species richness and abundance of mammalian carnivores. But the number of dogs we observed was strongly associated with human visitation (R²= 0.54), so the key factors associated with recreational effects on carnivores appear to be the presence and number of human visitors to protected areas.     

Influence of Care of Domestic Carnivores on Their Predation on Vertebrates

Abstract: Domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) and cats (Felis catus) are the most abundant mammalian carnivores worldwide. Given that domestic carnivores rely on human‐provided food, their densities are usually independent of prey densities. Nevertheless, underfed pets may need to hunt to meet their energetic and nutritional requirements. We explored the effects of different levels of care (provision of food) of dogs and cats on their predation rates on wild vertebrates in 2 areas of southern Chile. We interviewed cat and dog owners and analyzed prey remains in scats of pets to examine how domestic dogs and cats were managed and to gather information on the wild vertebrates killed and harassed by pets. We used logistic regression to examine the association between pet care and the frequency of wild vertebrate remains in scats. The probability of a dog preying on vertebrates was higher for poorly fed than for adequately fed dogs (odds ratio = 3.7) and for poorly fed than for adequately fed cats (odds ratio = 4.7). Domestic dogs and cats preyed on most endemic and threatened mammals present in the study sites. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that the less care domestic animals receive from owners the higher the probability those animals will prey on wild vertebrates.     

Vulnerability and Resilience of Tropical Forest Species to Land‐Use Change

Abstract: We provide a cross‐taxon and historical analysis of what makes tropical forest species vulnerable to extinction. Several traits have been important for species survival in the recent and distant geological past, including seed dormancy and vegetative growth in plants, small body size in mammals, and vagility in insects. For major past catastrophes, such as the five mass extinction events, large range size and vagility or dispersal were key to species survival. Traits that make some species more vulnerable to extinction are consistent across time scales. Terrestrial organisms, particularly animals, are more extinction prone than marine organisms. Plants that persist through dramatic changes often reproduce vegetatively and possess mechanisms of die back. Synergistic interactions between current anthropogenic threats, such as logging, fire, hunting, pests and diseases, and climate change are frequent. Rising temperatures threaten all organisms, perhaps particularly tropical organisms adapted to small temperature ranges and isolated by distance from suitable future climates. Mutualist species and trophic specialists may also be more threatened because of such range‐shift gaps. Phylogenetically specialized groups may be collectively more prone to extinction than generalists. Characterization of tropical forest species’ vulnerability to anthropogenic change is constrained by complex interactions among threats and by both taxonomic and ecological impediments, including gross undersampling of biotas and poor understanding of the spatial patterns of taxa at all scales.     

Predicted Climate‐Driven Bird Distribution Changes and Forecasted Conservation Conflicts in a Neotropical Savanna

Abstract: Climate‐change scenarios project significant temperature changes for most of South America. We studied the potential impacts of predicted climate‐driven change on the distribution and conservation of 26 broad‐range birds from South America Cerrado biome (a savanna that also encompass tracts of grasslands and forests). We used 12 temperature or precipitation‐related bioclimatic variables, nine niche modeling techniques, three general circulation models, and two climate scenarios (for 2030, 2065, 2099) for each species to model distribution ranges. To reach a consensus scenario, we used an ensemble‐forecasting approach to obtain an average distribution for each species at each time interval. We estimated the range extent and shift of each species. Changes in range size varied across species and according to habitat dependency; future predicted range extent was negatively correlated with current predicted range extent in all scenarios. Evolution of range size under full or null dispersal scenarios varied among species from a 5% increase to an 80% decrease. The mean expected range shifts under null and full‐dispersal scenarios were 175 and 200 km, respectively (range 15–399 km), and the shift was usually toward southeastern Brazil. We predicted larger range contractions and longer range shifts for forest‐ and grassland‐dependent species than for savanna‐dependent birds. A negative correlation between current range extent and predicted range loss revealed that geographically restricted species may face stronger threat and become even rarer. The predicted southeasterly direction of range changes is cause for concern because ranges are predicted to shift to the most developed and populated region of Brazil. Also, southeastern Brazil is the least likely region to contain significant dispersal corridors, to allow expansion of Cerrado vegetation types, or to accommodate creation of new reserves.     

The Role of Translocation in Recovery of Woodland Caribou Populations

Abstract: Maintenance of viable populations of many endangered species will require conservation action in perpetuity. Efforts to conserve these species are more likely to be successful if their reliance on conservation actions is assessed at the population level. Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) were extirpated recently from Banff National Park, Canada, and translocations of caribou to Banff and neighboring Jasper National Park are being considered. We used population viability analysis to assess the relative need for and benefits from translocation of individuals among caribou populations. We measured stochastic growth rates and the probability of quasi extinction of four populations of woodland caribou with and without translocation. We used two vital rates in our analysis: mean adult female survival and mean number of calves per breeding‐age female as estimates of mean fecundity. We isolated process variance for each vital rate. Our results suggested the Tonquin caribou population in Jasper is likely to remain viable without translocation, but that translocation is probably insufficient to prevent eventual extirpation of the two other populations in Jasper. Simulated reintroductions of caribou into Banff resulted in a 53–98% probability of >8 females remaining after 20 years, which suggests translocation may be an effective recovery tool for some caribou populations.     

Selectivity in Mammalian Extinction Risk and Threat Types: a New Measure of Phylogenetic Signal Strength in Binary Traits

Abstract: The strength of phylogenetic signal in extinction risk can give insight into the mechanisms behind species’ declines. Nevertheless, no existing measure of phylogenetic pattern in a binary trait, such as extinction‐risk status, measures signal strength in a way that can be compared among data sets. We developed a new measure for phylogenetic signal of binary traits, D, which simulations show gives robust results with data sets of more than 50 species, even when the proportion of threatened species is low. We applied D to the red‐list status of British birds and the world's mammals and found that the threat status for both groups exhibited moderately strong phylogenetic clumping. We also tested the hypothesis that the phylogenetic pattern of species threatened by harvesting will be more strongly clumped than for those species threatened by either habitat loss or invasive species because the life‐history traits mediating the effects of harvesting show strong evolutionary pattern. For mammals, our results supported our hypothesis; there was significant but weaker phylogenetic signal in the risk caused by the other two drivers (habitat loss and invasive species). We conclude that D is likely to be a useful measure of the strength of phylogenetic pattern in many binary traits.     

Effects of Pioneer Tree Species Hyperabundance on Forest Fragments in Northeastern Brazil

Abstract: Despite many studies on fragmentation of tropical forests, the extent to which plant and animal communities are altered in small, isolated forest fragments remains obscure if not controversial. We examined the hypothesis that fragmentation alters the relative abundance of tree species with different vegetative and reproductive traits. In a fragmented landscape (670 km²) of the Atlantic Forest of northeastern Brazil, we categorized 4056 trees of 182 species by leafing pattern, reproductive phenology, and morphology of seeds and fruit. We calculated relative abundance of traits in 50 1‐ha plots in three types of forest configurations: forest edges, small forest fragments (3.4–83.6 ha), and interior of the largest forest fragment (3500 ha, old growth). Although evergreen species were the most abundant across all configurations, forest edges and small fragments had more deciduous and semideciduous species than interior forest. Edges lacked supra‐annual flowering and fruiting species and had more species and stems with drupes and small seeds than small forest fragments and forest interior areas. In an ordination of species similarity and life‐history traits, the three types of configurations formed clearly segregated clusters. Furthermore, the differences in the taxonomic and functional (i.e., trait‐based) composition of tree assemblages we documented were driven primarily by the higher abundance of pioneer species in the forest edge and small forest fragments. Our work provides strong evidence that long‐term transitions in phenology and seed and fruit morphology of tree functional groups are occurring in fragmented tropical forests. Our results also suggest that edge‐induced shifts in tree assemblages of tropical forests can be larger than previously documented.     

Evaluating the Success of Conservation Actions in Safeguarding Tropical Forest Biodiversity

Abstract: We reviewed the evidence on the extent and efficacy of conservation of tropical forest biodiversity for each of the classes of conservation action defined by the new International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classification. Protected areas are the most tested conservation approach, and a number of studies show they are generally effective in slowing deforestation. There is some documentation of the extent of sustainable timber management in tropical forest, but little information on other landscape‐conservation tactics. The extent and effectiveness of ex situ species conservation is quite well known. Forty‐one tropical‐forest species now survive only in captivity. Other single‐species conservation actions are not as well documented. The potential of policy mechanisms, such as international conventions and provision of funds, to slow extinctions in tropical forests is considerable, but the effects of policy are difficult to measure. Finally, interventions to promote tropical conservation by supporting education and livelihoods, providing incentives, and furthering capacity building are all thought to be important, but their extent and effectiveness remain poorly known. For birds, the best studied taxon, the sum of such conservation actions has averted one‐fifth of the extinctions that would otherwise have occurred over the last century. Clearly, tropical forest conservation works, but more is needed, as is critical assessment of what works in what circumstances, if mass extinction is to be averted.     

Protection of Genetic Diversity and Maintenance of Connectivity among Reef Corals within Marine Protected Areas

Abstract: High‐latitude coral reefs (HLRs) are potentially vulnerable marine ecosystems facing well‐documented threats to tropical reefs and exposure to suboptimal temperatures and insolation. In addition, because of their geographic isolation, HLRs may have poor or erratic larval connections to tropical reefs and a reduced genetic diversity and capacity to respond to environmental change. On Australia's east coast, a system of marine protected areas (MPAs) has been established with the aim of conserving HLRs in part by providing sources of colonizing larvae. To examine the effectiveness of existing MPAs as networks for dispersal, we compared genetic diversity within and among the HLRs in MPAs and between these HLRs and tropical reefs on the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The 2 coral species best represented on Australian HLRs (the brooding Pocillopora damicornis and the broadcast‐spawning Goniastrea australensis) exhibited sharply contrasting patterns of diversity and connectedness. For P. damicornis, the 8‐locus genetic and genotypic diversity declined dramatically with increasing latitude (N_a= 3.6–1.2, H_e= 0.3–0.03, N_g:N = 0.87–0.06), although population structure was consistent with recruitment derived largely from sexual reproduction (G_o:G_e= 1.28–0.55). Genetic differentiation was high among the HLRs (F_ST[SD]= 0.32 [0.08], p < 0.05) and between the GBR and the HLRs (F_ST= 0.24 [0.06], p < 0.05), which indicates these temperate populations are effectively closed. In contrast for G. australensis, 9‐locus genetic diversity was more consistent across reefs (N_a= 4.2–3.9, H_e= 0.3–0.26, N_g:N = 1–0.61), and there was no differentiation among regions (F_ST= 0.00 [0.004], p > 0.05), which implies the HLRs and the southern GBR are strongly interconnected. Our results demonstrate that although the current MPAs appear to capture most of the genetic diversity present within the HLR systems for these 2 species, their sharply contrasting patterns of connectivity indicate some taxa, such as P. damicornis, will be more vulnerable than others, and this disparity will provide challenges for future management.     

Experimental manipulation of seed shadows of an Afrotropical tree determines drivers of recruitment

The loss of animals in tropical forests may alter seed dispersal patterns and reduce seedling recruitment of tree species, but direct experimental evidence is scarce. We manipulated dispersal patterns of Manilkara mabokeensis, a monkey-dispersed tree, to assess the extent to which spatial distributions of seeds drive seedling recruitment. Based on the natural seed shadow, we created seed distributions with seeds deposited under the canopy ("no dispersal"), with declining density from the tree ("natural dispersal"), and at uniform densities ("good dispersal"). These distributions mimicked dispersal patterns that could occur with the extirpation of monkeys, low levels of hunting, and high rates of seed dispersal. We monitored seedling emergence and survival for 18 months and recorded the number of leaves and damage to leaves. "Good dispersal" increased seedling survival by 26%, and "no dispersal" decreased survival by 78%, relative to "natural dispersal." Using a mixed-effects survival model, we decoupled the distance and density components of the seed shadow: seedling survival depended on the seed density, but not on the distance from the tree. Although community seedling diversity tended to decrease with longer dispersal distances, we found no conclusive evidence that patterns of seed dispersal influence the diversity of the seedling community. Local seed dispersal does affect seedling recruitment and survival, with better dispersal resulting in higher seedling recruitment; hence the loss of dispersal services that comes with the reduction or extirpation of seed dispersers will decrease regeneration of some tree species.     

Slow recovery of tropical old‐field rainforest regrowth and the value and limitations of active restoration

There is current debate about the potential for secondary regrowth to rescue tropical forests from an otherwise inevitable cascade of biodiversity loss due to land clearing and scant evidence to test how well active restoration may accelerate recovery. We used site chronosequences to compare developmental trajectories of vegetation between self‐organized (i.e., spontaneous) forest regrowth and biodiversity plantings (established for ecological restoration, with many locally native tree species at high density) in the Australian wet tropics uplands. Across 28 regrowth sites aged 1–59 years, some structural attributes reached reference rainforest levels within 40 years, whereas wood volume and most tested components of native plant species richness (classified by species’ origins, family, and ecological functions) reached less than 50% of reference rainforest values. Development of native tree and shrub richness was particularly slow among species that were wind dispersed or animal dispersed with large (>10 mm) seeds. Many species with animal‐dispersed seeds were from near‐basal evolutionary lineages that contribute to recognized World Heritage values of the study region. Faster recovery was recorded in 25 biodiversity plantings of 1–25 years in which wood volume developed more rapidly; native woody plant species richness reached values similar to reference rainforest and was better represented across all dispersal modes; and species from near‐basal plant families were better (although incompletely) represented. Plantings and regrowth showed slow recovery in species richness of vines and epiphytes and in overall resemblance to forest in species composition. Our results can inform decision making about when and where to invest in active restoration and provide strong evidence that protecting old‐growth forest is crucially important for sustaining tropical biodiversity.     

A Matrix‐Calibrated Species‐Area Model for Predicting Biodiversity Losses Due to Land‐Use Change

Abstract: Application of island biogeography theory to prediction of species extinctions resulting from habitat loss is based on the assumption that the transformed landscape matrix is completely inhospitable to the taxa considered, despite evidence demonstrating the nontrivial influence of matrix on populations within habitat remnants. The island biogeography paradigm therefore needs refining to account for specific responses of taxa to the area of habitat “islands” and to the quality of the surrounding matrix. We incorporated matrix effects into island theory by partitioning the slope (z value) of species–area relationships into two components: γ, a constant, and σ, a measure of taxon‐specific responses to each component of a heterogeneous matrix. We used our matrix‐calibrated model to predict extinction and endangerment of bird species resulting from land‐use change in 20 biodiversity hotspots and compared these predictions with observed numbers of extinct and threatened bird species. We repeated this analysis with the conventional species–area model and the countryside species–area model, considering alternative z values of 0.35 (island) or 0.22 (continental). We evaluated the relative strength of support for each of the five candidate models with Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The matrix‐calibrated model had the highest AIC weight (w_i = 89.21%), which means the weight of evidence in support of this model was the optimal model given the set of candidate models and the data. In addition to being a valuable heuristic tool for assessing extinction risk, our matrix‐calibrated model also allows quantitative assessment of biodiversity benefits (and trade‐offs) of land‐management options in human‐dominated landscapes. Given that processes of secondary regeneration have become more widespread across tropical regions and are predicted to increase, our matrix‐calibrated model will be increasingly appropriate for practical conservation in tropical landscapes.