大蒜鳞茎浸提液对花叶芥菜化感作用的初步研究

大蒜化感作用的研究很广泛,实验采用不同浓度大蒜鳞茎浸提液对芥菜种子萌发、根长、茎长和幼苗鲜重的影响,结果表明,经大蒜鳞茎浸提液处理后的花叶芥菜种子在不同浓度下呈现不一样的形态,其发芽率和发芽指数在不同浓度的大蒜鳞茎浸提液的影响下随着浓度而变化,在0.02 g/m L的浓度下,花叶芥菜的发芽率为97.8%,为最适宜种子发芽的浓度,而对于种子的发芽势来说,最适宜的浓度则为0.04 g/m L,达到了54.8%,浓度为0.02g/m L时的平均根长为1.82 cm,平均茎长为2.28 cm,平均茎重为0.05 g,0.03 g/m L时的平均根重为0.06 g.不同浓度的大蒜鳞茎浸提液对种子幼苗的不同部位的促进和抑制作用也不一样.     

一种提取土壤样品中麻疯树核糖体失活蛋白curcin的方法

建立并优化了一种土壤麻疯树核糖体失活蛋白curcin的提取方法.优化后的提取步骤和参数为:0.1 g含curcin的土壤样品加入1 m L的提取缓冲液(5 mmol/L磷酸盐,0.1 mmol/L EDTA,0.2%SDS(m/V),20 mmol/Lβ-巯基乙醇,p H7.2),在18℃以上的室温条件下振荡混匀1 h,离心取上清液.重复该过程一次,合并上清液.上清液于4℃放置过夜,离心取上清液,即为样品粗提液.该样品粗提液即可用单克隆抗体间接酶联免疫吸附法(ELISA)进一步检测其中的curcin含量.该方法对curcin含量高于8μg/g土壤可进行定性检测,对于curcin含量分别为100、500、1 000μg/g的土壤样品的回收率分别达到49.3%±2.8%、64.2%±3.62%和78.33%±4.24%.该方法的变异系数保持在5%左右,对来自四川3个样地的土壤有较好的适用性.本研究建立优化的提取方法可为评估curcin蛋白在农业领域应用的生态风险提供技术支持.     

黄花菜根水浸提液对大白菜化感作用的初步研究

以黄花菜根为试材,研究不同浓度水浸提液对不同品种大白菜种子萌发和幼苗生长的影响,对黄花菜根化感物质的作用进行研究.试验结果表明:不同浓度黄花菜根水浸提液对不同品种大白菜(精选83-1和迷你黄)种子萌发和幼苗生长的作用效果不同.当浓度为10 mg/m L,15 mg/m L,20 mg/m L时,对于精选83-1和迷你黄的化感作用不同,有的表现为促进作用,有的表现抑制作用.高浓度(25 mg/m L)对于精选83-1和迷你黄则全部表现为抑制作用,且浓度越高抑制作用越明显.图5,表2,参12.     

常温氢氧化钠预处理芦苇酶解发酵产油

在室温(28℃)下对氢氧化钠预处理芦苇(Phragmites australis)条件进行单因素和响应面设计优化,对酶解的条件进行单因素优化,对酶解液成分进行HPLC分析,利用未经任何脱毒处理的酶解液发酵产油并与配制培养基对比,通过GC-MS对油脂脂肪酸组成进行分析.结果表明:最佳预处理条件为氢氧化钠质量分数3.4%,预处理时间16h,液固比20:1 m L/g,在初始酶解条件下酶解得到酶解液还原糖浓度为26.32 g/L;最佳酶解的条件为p H=4.5,温度45℃,液固比10:1 m L/g,酶解时间48 h,纤维素酶和纤维二糖酶酶液添加量均为30μL/g,得到酶解液还原糖浓度为40.01g/L;经HPLC分析,酶解液中葡萄糖、木糖、阿拉伯糖和半乳糖比例分别为70.27%、19.83%、5.08%和4.82%;通过隐球酵母(Cryptococcus podzolicus)ZWY-2-3发酵产油,其生物量、油脂产量和油脂含量在4 d时达到最大,分别为8.63 g/L、2.56 g/L和29.68%,其与同等糖浓度的对照组配制作培养基相当.本研究表明,芦苇是生产微生物油脂的潜在生物质原料,具有广阔的应用前景.     

产油真菌利用甘薯淀粉酶解液发酵的条件优化

为降低微生物发酵产油成本,利用甘薯粗淀粉酶解液为碳源,从10株产油霉菌中筛选到一株能充分利用淀粉糖的菌株(S-1),经5.8S r DNA-ITS序列分析,鉴定其为赤霉菌(Gibberella intermedia).菌株S-1的初始生物量、油脂含量和油脂产量分别是15.82 g/L、31.51%和4.98 g/L,通过单因素和正交试验优化后分别提高到21.67 g/L、39.87%和8.64g/L,与优化前相比,油脂产量提高了73.5%.利用GC-MS对发酵提取后的油脂进行脂肪酸成分分析,主要成分为棕榈酸、亚油酸、油酸,与植物油相似,适用于生物柴油的生产,且不饱和脂肪酸含量达89.82%.本研究表明菌株S-1能够充分利用淀粉酶解液发酵产油,是生物柴油生产的潜在菌株.     

不同品种苦荞中的4种活性黄酮含量

利用HPLC测定21个不同品种苦荞籽粉和麸皮中芦丁、山奈酚-3-芸香糖苷、槲皮素和山奈酚的含量.采用RP-HPLC,用Damonsil C18色谱柱(4.6 mm×250 mm,5μm),以乙腈-0.2%冰醋酸水溶液为流动相进行梯度洗脱,流速为1.0 m L/min,检测波长为354 nm,柱温30℃.结果显示,在室温状态下,21种不同品种的苦荞种子中水分含量在4.907 3%-6.993 6%之间,恒重状态下,麸皮质量分数为21.84%-30.03%,麸皮重量约占苦荞籽粒质量的1/4.芦丁、山奈酚-3-芸香糖苷、槲皮素和山奈酚的线性范围分别在20-400μg/m L、2-40μg/m L、1-20μg/m L、0.5-10μg/m L;不同品种苦荞籽粉中,芦丁、山奈酚-3-芸香糖苷、槲皮素和山奈酚的含量范围分别为12.137 0-20.318 6 mg/g、1.478 7-2.871 9 mg/g、0.014 6-0.901 5 mg/g、0-0.015 9 mg/g,4种主要黄酮的总含量为14.015 1-22.871 7 mg/g;麸皮中芦丁、山奈酚-3-芸香糖苷、槲皮素和山奈酚的含量范围分别为4.269 0-12.118 9 mg/g、0.258 5-1.014 9 mg/g、0.061 8-0.735 4 mg/g、0-0.026 3 mg/g,4种主要黄酮的总含量为4.651 1-13.148 6 mg/g.本研究表明,无论在籽粉还是麸皮中,芦丁都是含量最高的黄酮,其次为山奈酚-3-芸香糖苷和槲皮素,山奈酚的含量在万分之一以下;本研究可为苦荞籽粉和麸皮中主要黄酮的开发和优良品种的利用提供重要依据.     

稻壳生物炭基质中添加壳聚糖对辣椒、番茄生长质量的影响

为探究稻壳生物炭育苗基质中添加不同量壳聚糖对辣椒、番茄穴盘育苗效果的影响,以稻壳生物炭、蛭石、珍珠岩、发酵鸡粪按7∶1∶1∶1比例配成育苗基质,设4个不同添加量壳聚糖处理,测定辣椒、番茄幼苗生长质量及生理代谢指标,并计算壮苗指数和G值.结果表明在该复合基质中,壳聚糖添加量8 g/L时,辣椒、番茄幼苗株高、茎粗、叶绿素、可溶性糖含量等显著高于其他处理,辣椒、番茄幼苗壮苗指数分别比对照提高56.57%和57.75%.因此,在该稻壳生物炭基质中,适量添加壳聚糖可促进辣椒、番茄幼苗生长发育,以8 g/L添加量育苗效果最佳.     

溴氰菊酯对罗非鱼血清中溶菌酶质量浓度及肝脾脏影响

随着溴氰菊酯在农业上的广泛应用,其在水环境中的污染机率也在增加。为了研究溴氰菊酯连续暴露对罗非鱼免疫系统的影响。通过测定血清中溶菌酶质量分数,观察罗非鱼(tilapia)肝脾脏的外观变化,以及计算肝脏和脾脏的脏器系数,评价溴氰菊酯连续染毒对罗非鱼的影响。实验设1.0,2.0,3.0,5.0,10.0μg/L5个质量浓度组和空白对照组,同时每组设置一个平行样。试验开始后的第3天,1.0~5.0μg/L质量浓度组的罗非鱼血清中的溶菌酶质量浓度接近或略小于对照组,10.0μg/L质量浓度组与对照组相比下降明显(P<0.05),降幅达49.3%。实验7~15d期间,1.0~5.0μg/L质量浓度组罗非鱼血清的溶菌酶质量浓度渐渐升高,高于正常鱼体的质量浓度,最高值可达138.06±2.2μg/mL,为对照组的220.9%(P<0.05)。10.0μg/L试验组罗非鱼血清中溶菌酶的质量浓度在试验第7天时降至最低,为26.5±1.9μg/mL,为对照组的42.4%,表现出明显的抑制作用(P<0.01)。随着暴露时间的延长,各试验组在20d时恢复至正常水平,血清中溶菌酶的质量浓度与对照组相比没有明显差异(P>0.05);溴氰菊酯染毒第25天时罗非鱼的肝脏和脾脏的脏器系数与对照组相比均未发生明显的差异,罗非鱼的脾脏外观没有发生异常,但肝脏却发生了明显的病变,试验第25d时10.0μg/L质量浓度组罗非鱼肝脏的异常率达66.67%。试验结果表明,溴氰菊酯对罗非鱼血清中溶菌酶的影响是可逆的,对肝脏会造成一定的病理损伤,对脾脏的影响未检出。     

产氢产酸/同型产乙酸两相耦合工艺厌氧发酵市政污泥生产乙酸

采用一种新的产氢产酸/同型产乙酸两相耦合工艺对市政污泥进行厌氧发酵,以实现高效产乙酸的目的.结果表明,采用该两相耦合工艺对市政污泥厌氧发酵能很好地促进乙酸的生成,实验条件下,产氢产酸相乙酸最高浓度达到4.27 g/L,同型产乙酸相乙酸最高浓度则为1.07 g/L,乙酸产率和VFA产率分别达到0.42 g/gVS和0.69 g/gVS,与非耦合系统相比,分别提高了.61.5%和53.3%.实验结果还证明,污泥经热碱法预处理之后再厌氧发酵,能更有效地产酸,与不经过预处理的污泥原液发酵相比,前者的产氢产酸相乙酸浓度比后者提高了2.9倍.     

隐球酵母Zwy-2-3循环利用油脂发酵废弃细胞产油

为提高资源利用效率,降低微生物油脂发酵成本,解决微生物油脂发酵中废弃酵母细胞和发酵废液处理排放的问题,研究隐球酵母(Cryptococcus podzolicus)Zwy-2-3利用栎类淀粉发酵产油情况,并探讨发酵废液和废弃酵母细胞酶解液作为氮源的循环利用.结果显示,以葡萄糖60 g/L和总氮0.18 g/L的废弃酵母细胞酶解液发酵时,循环3次其油脂产量分别达到6.79 g/L、6.66 g/L、6.72 g/L,均高于对照组;而将发酵废液回收用作废弃酵母细胞酶解的缓冲液时,其生物量、油脂产量同对照组相当;将该方法应用于栎类淀粉水解液同步糖化发酵产油脂的实验,循环3次后其生物量、油脂产量分别为13.04 g/L、7.13 g/L,比对照组提高了9.85%、10.03%,且3次循环的油脂含量较为稳定.油脂组分分析结果显示,菌株Zwy-2-3利用栎类淀粉同步糖化和废弃细胞循环酶解液发酵生产的微生物油脂不饱和脂肪酸的含量达到93%以上,与植物油组成相似.综上,酶解废弃酵母细胞可有效应用于酵母产油发酵,可为非粮淀粉生产的微生物油脂应用于生物柴油生产奠定基础.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.