Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change

We study the role of intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth, stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse. We contrast two polar instances of risk-sensitive preferences: the traditional “discounted utility” model, which imposes a positive rate of pure time preference and risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility, and multiplicatively separable preferences, which display risk aversion in that dimension but no pure time preferences. We show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same economy when there is no collapse risk associated with pollution. Once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate depends on the pollution stock, multiplicatively separable preferences are associated with a much higher value of catastrophic risk reduction, and a more stringent policy response. A relatively high discount rate may thus be compatible with large emissions abatement in the face of a low probability large impact event, reflecting preferences for catastrophic risk reduction.     

Prices vs quantities with multiple pollutants

We examine the choice of policy instruments (price, quantity or a mix of the two) when two pollutants are regulated and firms' abatement costs are private information. Whether abatement efforts are complements or substitutes is key determining the choice of policies. When pollutants are complements, a mixed policy instrument with a tax on one pollutant and a quota on another is sometimes preferable even if the pollutants are identical in terms of benefits and costs of abatement. Yet, if they are substitutes, the mixed policy is dominated by taxes or quotas.     

Analysis of the current situation of environmental policy of China and establishment of distributed environmental policy framework

In this study, China’s current macro-environmental policies as well as their implementation and management tools are analyzed. By using the basic economic methodology, detailed studies are conducted focusing on the implementation effect of contemporary China’s typical environmental policy of the total pollutant discharge quantity control type, and also the two types of environmental management tools are compared from the perspective of implementation costs and policy uncertainty. By introduction of distributed management tools into the implementation of environmental policies, market-oriented means and the methods of economic analysis are introduced into environmental policy decision-making mechanisms, which could afford a new method for changing the current relatively low efficiency of environmental policy, solving the problem of “government failure” in environmental policy implementation, and providing a new way to make environmental policy system more flexible and more efficient. It is of great practical significance to solve China's current structural, complex and accumulative environmental problems.     

Carbon abatement in the fuel market with biofuels: Implications for second best policies

A carbon tax on fuel would penalize carbon intensive fuels like gasoline and shift fuel consumption to less carbon intensive alternatives like biofuels. Since biofuel production competes for land with agricultural production, a carbon tax could increase land rents and raise food prices. This paper analyzes the welfare effect of a carbon tax on fuel consisting of gasoline and biofuel in the presence of a labor tax, with and without a biofuel subsidy. The market impacts of a carbon tax are also compared with that of a subsidy. Findings show that if a carbon tax increases biofuel demand, the tax interaction effect due to higher fuel prices is exacerbated by higher land rent and food prices and greater erosion of the carbon tax base. Thus, the second best optimal carbon tax for fuel is lower with biofuel in the fuel mix, especially if biofuel is subsidized.     

Is Chinese trade policy motivated by environmental concerns?

This paper analyses whether China's export VAT rebates and export taxes are driven by environmental concerns. Since China struggles to enforce environmental regulation, trade policy can be used as a second-best environmental policy. In a general equilibrium model it is possible to show that the second-best export tax increases in a product's pollution intensity. The empirical analysis investigates whether the export tax equivalent of partial VAT rebates and export taxes are higher for products which are more pollution intensive along several dimensions. The results indicate that the VAT rebate rates are set in a way that discourages exports of water pollution intensive, SO₂ intensive and energy intensive products from 2007 on. Moreover, the conservation of natural resources such as minerals, metals, wood products and precious stones seems to be a key determinant of China's export VAT rebate rates. There is little evidence that export taxes are motivated by environmental concerns.     

The case for policy‐relevant conservation science

Drawing on the “evidence‐based” (Sutherland et al. 2013) versus “evidence‐informed” debate (Adams & Sandbrook 2013), which has become prominent in conservation science, I argue that science can be influential if it holds a dual reference (Lentsch & Weingart 2011) that contributes to the needs of policy makers whilst maintaining technical rigor. In line with such a strategy, conservation scientists are increasingly recognizing the usefulness of constructing narratives through which to enhance the influence of their evidence (Leslie et al. 2013; Lawton & Rudd 2014). Yet telling stories alone is rarely enough to influence policy; instead, these narratives must be policy relevant. To ensure that evidence is persuasive alongside other factors in a complex policy‐making process, conservation scientists could follow 2 steps: reframe within salient political contexts and engage more productively in boundary work, which is defined as the ways in which scientists “construct, negotiate, and defend the boundary between science and policy” (Owens et al. 2006:640). These will both improve the chances of evidence‐informed conservation policy.     

Announcing climate policy: Can a green paradox arise without scarcity?

Unintended consequences of a pre-announced climate policy are studied within a framework that allows for competition between polluting and clean energy sources. We show that early announcement of a carbon tax gives rise to a “green-paradox,” in that it increases emissions in the interim period (between announcement and actual implementation), irrespective of the scarcity of fossil fuels. The paradoxical outcome is driven by consumption-saving tradeoffs facing households who seek to smooth consumption over time and holds both when the announced implementation date is taken as a credible threat and when households are skeptical about the (political) will or capability of the government to implement the policy as announced.     

Do renewable energy policies reduce carbon emissions? On caps and inter-industry leakage

In a parsimonious two-sector general equilibrium model, we challenge the widely-held tenet that within a cap-and-trade system renewable energy policies have no effect on carbon emissions. If the cap does not capture all sectors, we demonstrate that variations of a renewable energy subsidy change aggregate carbon emissions through an inter-industry leakage effect. We decompose this effect into intuitively intelligible components that depend in natural ways on measurable elasticity parameters. Raising the subsidy always reduces emissions if funded by a lump-sum tax, reinforcing recent findings that tightening environmental regulation can cause negative leakage. However, if the subsidy is funded by a levy on electricity, it can increase emissions. These results provide a valuable basis for an informed design of renewable energy policies and an accurate assessment of their effectiveness. We highlight how a state-of-the-art statistic used by governments to gauge such effectiveness, “virtual emission reductions”, is biased, because inter-industrial leakage effects are not captured.     

The “second dividend” and the demographic structure

The demographic structure of a country influences economic activity. The “second dividend” modifies growth. Accordingly, in general equilibrium, the second dividend and the demographic structure are interrelated. This paper aims at assessing empirically the “second dividend” in a dynamic, empirical and intertemporal setting that allows for measuring its impact on growth, its intergenerational redistributive effects, and its interaction with the demographic structure. The paper uses a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, an energy module and a public finance module that distinguishes between non-ageing-related public spending and a pension regime. Policy scenarios compare the consequences of different scenarios of recycling a carbon tax through lower proportional income taxes rather than higher public lump-sum expenditures. They are computed for two countries with different demographics (France and Germany). Results suggest that the magnitude of the “second dividend” is significantly related with the demographic structure. The more concentrated the demographic structure on cohorts with higher income and saving rate, the stronger the effect on capital supply of the second dividend. The second dividend weighs on the welfare of relatively aged working cohorts. It fosters the wellbeing of young working cohorts and of future generations. The more concentrated the demographic structure on aged working cohorts, the higher the intergenerational redistributive effects of the second dividend.     

The Importance of Site-Specific Information in the Design of Policies to Control Pollution

The presence and concentration of pollutants in groundwater are influenced by geophysical processes and the behavior of economic agents. The purpose of this paper is to assess the importance of spatial variability in physical parameters in the design of efficient pollution regulations. Alternative tax policies are evaluated in terms of effects on farm profit utilizing a spatially distributed, dynamic simulation model which links economic behavior with the geophysical processes that determine groundwater quality. The empirical focus is the control of groundwater nitrates arising from irrigated agriculture in Malheur County, Oregon. Results indicate that a detailed accounting of spatial variance in physical parameters had little effect on selection of a cost-minimizing tax policy to control groundwater nitrate concentration. This result implies that relatively simple tax schemes and models to evaluate these tax schemes may be adequate in some settings.     

Optimal pollution in the presence of adjustment costs

This paper explores optimal pollution control when pollution is considered a stock and costs of treating pollution are a function both of the level and rate of change of pollution control. It is shown that even if the long run optimum stock of pollution is below the initial level adjustment costs may imply an optimally increasing stock of pollution in the short run. The results obtained are contrasted with those which emerge when adjustment costs are absent and when damages are taken to be a function of the flow of pollution; the appropriate tax rates of polluting discharges are examined.     

Implementing optimal taxes using tradable share permits

This paper presents a simple system for efficient regulation under asymmetric information. Each firm's income is controlled by a tax that depends on the firm's own output and on a parameter construed as a share permit. These “shares of total expected output” lower a firm's tax burden and are acquired in a competitive market. By employing this scheme, the planner only requires knowledge of marginal damage to induce the first-best outcome. Relative to a traditional cap-and-trade approach the system increases expected social welfare.     

Bewertungsverfahren Verfahren zur Bewertung von immissionsbedingten Stoffanreicherungen in standardisierten Graskulturen

Standardized grass cultures are routinely used to evaluate the accumulation of air pollutants. For the assessment of air pollutant accumulation in grass cultures, it is particularly important to distinguish between “normal” concentrations and the significantly increased accumulation caused by air pollution. This article presents a method to determine “normal” element concentrations (background levels) and define threshold values for the significantly elevated accumulation of pollutants for individual series of grass cultures. By applying the same method for the data from six regional air quality measuring programs, it was possible to derive universally applicable “normal” concentrations and threshold values for grass cultures. The described method is not limited to the evaluation of data from grass cultures but is also suitable for other biological or ecological data. It allows to distinguish between “normal” element concentrations and unusually high or low concentrations.     

Functional zoning for air quality

Environmental local agencies have to enforce European directives that impose a land classification, according to air quality status, to distinguish zones needing further actions from those needing only maintenance. This paper presents a land classification in zones featured by different criticality levels of atmospheric pollution, considering pollutant time series as functional data: we call this proposal “Functional Zoning”. Our proposal is articulated in order to also meet two specific requirements: upscaling pollutant concentration data to the municipality scale, since municipalities are the reference territorial administrative units for undertaking actions; aggregating different pollutants in order to provide a multi-pollutant zoning outcome reflecting the air quality status. Specifically, we present three different alternatives to upscale data from a regular grid to the municipality scale. Then, to aggregate by pollutant, we evaluate two strategies summarizing time series: the assessment of an air quality index and the use of the Multivariate Functional Principal Component Analysis (MFPCA). The partition of municipalities is obtained by clustering air quality time series and MFPCA scores. In particular, the proposed functional zoning is carried out for Piemonte (Northern Italy), considering the hourly concentration fields of the main pollutants. We obtain six classifications of the same land and we propose a comparison study of the different strategies’ results, by mapping and analyzing the differences between clusters’ labels. By taking into account the comparison study’s findings, we finally suggest an analysis strategy to environmental agencies and policy makers to obtain an easily interpretable outcome at a very reasonable computational cost.     

Ambiguity,reasoned determination,and climate-change policy

This paper examines climate-change benefit-cost analysis in the presence of scientific uncertainty in the form of ambiguity. The specific issue addressed is the robustness of benefit-cost analyses of climate-change policy alternatives to relaxation of Savage's original axioms. Two alternatives to subjective expected utility (SEU) are considered: maximin expected utility (MEU) and incomplete expected utility (IEU). Among other results, it is demonstrated that polar opposite recommendations can emerge in an ambiguous decision setting even if all agree on Society's rate of time preference, Society's risk attitudes, the degree of ambiguity faced, and the scientific primitives. We show that, for a simple numerical simulation of our model, an MEU decision maker favors policies which immediately tackle climate change while an IEU decision prefers “business as usual”.“Each agency shall assess the costs and benefits of the intended regulation, and recognizing that some costs and benefits are difficult to quantify, propose or adopt a regulation only upon a reasoned determination that the benefits of the intended regulation justify its cost.” Executive Order 12866 of the US President.     

The resistibility and shiftability of depletable externalities

In their recently revised book Baumol and Oates (“The Theory of Environmental Policy,” 2nd ed., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK 1988) accept Bird's argument on the optimal taxation policy when externalities are shiftable and depletable. Their conclusion is that the standard Pigouvian tax which is placed upon the generator of a negative externality can be extended to tax the victims who shift the externality to others or extended to compensate recipients in order to achieve Pareto optimality. It is shown in this paper that their conclusion is not free from error, because the possibility of resisting a shifted externality and conjectural variations by recipients is not recognized. Whether an externality is shiftable depends not only on the shifting activity of the original victim but also the resisting activity of his neighbors and their conjectures about each other's action. As such, the shifters should be taxed and the recipients should be compensated at the same rate per unit of externality shifted if the tax base is the output of the shifting and resisting activities. On the other hand, if the tax base is the input which produced the shifting of the externality, then both the shifters and the recipients should be subject to a tax (or subsidy) per unit of input that they have engaged in. Whether it is a tax or a subsidy depends on the direction and magnitude of the conjectural variation. The model and its policy implication can be generalized to cover the omnipresent and wasteful rent seeking activities.     

Estimates from a consumer demand system: implications for the incidence of environmental taxes

Most studies suggest that environmental taxes are regressive, making them less attractive policy options. We consider the distributional effects of a gasoline tax increase using four incidence measures and under three scenarios for gas tax revenue use. To incorporate behavioral responses we use Consumer Expenditure Survey data to estimate a consumer demand system that includes gasoline, other goods, and leisure. Our estimates confirm that when revenues are not recycled, a gasoline tax is regressive. Use of incidence measures that ignore demand responses, however, will substantially overstate this regressivity. In contrast, the differences between the equivalent variation and easier-to-implement consumer surplus measures are relatively small. In addition, our results suggest that using the additional gas tax revenue to fund labor tax cuts makes the policy substantially less regressive while using the revenue to fund lump-sum transfers actually makes it progressive.     

Bedeutung der Expositionswege auf Bioakkumulation und Wirkung in C. elegans

Different uptake routes of contaminants were analysed with focus on particle-bound pollutants. Bioavailability of cadmium was determined with quantitative mRNA-analysis using the expression of the “cadmium responsive gene” cdr- in Caenorhabditis elegans. Comparable experiments were performed with fluoranthene as organic pollutant. The exposure in medium was compared with and without bacteria as food particles. Both bioaccumulation and toxic effects were most influenced via the food exposure. Inorganic particles increased also the uptake of cadmium, but significantly less than food or mixtures of food and inorganic particles. The exposure of fluoranthene reduced the reproduction of the nematodes, if a gene expression threshold was exceeded. However, bioavailabilty of fluoranthene via food particles caused a faster response of the cyp-expression. Thus means, the internal availability is crucial influenced by the uptake route.     

Saturday effects in tanker oil spills

This paper documents a “Saturday effect” in the timing of tanker oil spills—certain types of spills happen much more frequently on this day than one would expect if the spills were uniformly distributed. The phenomenon is restricted to Europe and North America, and is associated with “vessel guidance” accidents—groundings, collisions, and rammings. Eliminating the Saturday effect would reduce tanker oil spills by around 163,000 gallons per year. Several policy responses are considered, including a Saturday harbor tax. A lower bound for an efficient tax is estimated to be $780 for a 20 million gal cargo.     

Effects of Carbon Taxes in an Economy with Prior Tax Distortions: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper analyzes the costs of carbon taxes in a model that recognizes interactions between this tax and pre-existing taxes. First we examine the extent to which costs of a U.S. carbon tax are reduced when its revenues finance cuts in income taxes. Such use of revenues significantly reduces, but does not eliminate, the overall policy costs. The positive overall costs reflect the carbon tax′s focus on intermediate inputs and its relatively narrow base in comparison with income taxes. We also examine the sensitivity of the carbon tax′s costs to the level of pre-existing taxes. For any given use of revenues, welfare costs rise significantly with pre-existing tax rates, indicating that models disregarding pre-existing taxes may substantially understate the costs of new environmental tax initiatives.