The Future of Tropical Species on a Warmer Planet

Abstract: Modern global temperature and land cover and projected future temperatures suggest that tropical forest species will be particularly sensitive to global warming. Given a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, fully 75% of the tropical forests present in 2000 will experience mean annual temperatures in 2100 that are greater than the highest mean annual temperature that supports closed‐canopy forest today. Temperature‐sensitive species might extend their ranges to cool refuges, defined here as areas where temperatures projected for 2100 match 1960s temperatures in the modern range. Distances to such cool refuges are greatest for equatorial species and are particularly large for key tropical forest areas including the Amazon and Congo River Basins, West Africa, and the upper elevations of many tropical mountains. In sum, tropical species are likely to be particularly sensitive to global warming because they are adapted to limited geographic and seasonal variation in temperature, already lived at or near the highest temperatures on Earth before global warming began, and are often isolated from cool refuges. To illustrate these three points, we examined the distributions and habitat associations of all extant mammal species. The distance to the nearest cool refuge exceeded 1000 km for more than 20% of the tropical and less than 4% of the extratropical species with small ranges. The biological impact of global warming is likely to be as severe in the tropics as at temperate and boreal latitudes.     

Region-wide retreats from lower elevations of range-restricted birds across the Northern Andes

Local studies show upslope shifts in the distribution of tropical birds in response to warming temperatures. Unanswered is whether these upward shifts occur regionally across many species. We considered a nearly 2000-km length of the Northern Andes, where deforestation, temperature, and extreme weather events have increased during the past decades. Range-restricted bird species are particularly vulnerable to such events and occur in exceptionally high numbers in this region. Using abundant crowd-sourced data from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology database, eBird, and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we documented distributions of nearly 200 such species. We examined whether species shifted their elevational ranges over time by comparing observed versus expected occurrences below a low elevational threshold and above a high elevational threshold for 2 periods: before and after 2005. We predicted fewer observations at lower elevations (those below the threshold) and more at upper elevations (those above the threshold) after 2005. We also tested for deforestation effects at lower elevations within each species’ distribution ranges. We compared relative forest loss with the differences between observed and expected occurrences across the elevational range. Species’ retreats from lower elevations were ubiquitous and involved a 23–40% decline in prevalence at the lowest elevations. Increases at higher elevations were not consistent. The retreats occurred across a broad spectrum of species, from predominantly lowland to predominantly highland. Because deforestation showed no relationship with species retreats, we contend that a warming climate is the most parsimonious explanation for such shifts.     

Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Abstract:  Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400–550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100–500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.     

Study of bio-physico-chemical parameters of Mothronwala swamp, Dehradun (Uttarakhand)

Aquatic biodiversity is one of the most essential characteristics of the aquatic ecosystem formaintaining its stability and a means of coping with any environmental change. The entire stretch of the Mothronwala swamp has rich riparian vegetation for providing conducive environment for the growth of aquatic organisms. The present work has been undertaken to study the bio-physico-chemical characteristics of the swamp. The data on physico-chemical environmental variables (temperature, total dissolved solutes, size and composition of substratum, pH, dissolved oxygen, alkalinity chlorides, and hardness) have been given under the present contribution. A total of 16 genera of aquatic insects belonging to orders Trichoptera, Coleoptera, Hemiptera, Ephemeroptera, Odonata and Phylum Mollusca represented the macroinvertebrates of Mothronwala swamp. The fresh water swamp of Mothronwala is under threat due to human interference and other anthropogenic activities. Some of the natural and anthropogenic environmental problems of the Mothronwala swamp have been identified and the ameliorative measures for the protection of aquatic environment and the conservation measures for the swamp have been suggested. The qualitative study revealed the present status of the aquatic biodiversity of the swamp and also about the physico-chemical parameters, which would be very helpful for policy makers to take precautionary measures to save the swamp.     

Projected Climate‐Induced Habitat Loss for Salmonids in the John Day River Network,Oregon, U.S.A.

Abstract: Climate change will likely have profound effects on cold‐water species of freshwater fishes. As temperatures rise, cold‐water fish distributions may shift and contract in response. Predicting the effects of projected stream warming in stream networks is complicated by the generally poor correlation between water temperature and air temperature. Spatial dependencies in stream networks are complex because the geography of stream processes is governed by dimensions of flow direction and network structure. Therefore, forecasting climate‐driven range shifts of stream biota has lagged behind similar terrestrial modeling efforts. We predicted climate‐induced changes in summer thermal habitat for 3 cold‐water fish species—juvenile Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, O. mykiss, and Salvelinus confluentus, respectively)—in the John Day River basin, northwestern United States. We used a spatially explicit statistical model designed to predict water temperature in stream networks on the basis of flow and spatial connectivity. The spatial distribution of stream temperature extremes during summers from 1993 through 2009 was largely governed by solar radiation and interannual extremes of air temperature. For a moderate climate change scenario, estimated declines by 2100 in the volume of habitat for Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout were 69–95%, 51–87%, and 86–100%, respectively. Although some restoration strategies may be able to offset these projected effects, such forecasts point to how and where restoration and management efforts might focus.     

Combined Effects of Climate Change and Bank Stabilization on Shallow Water Habitats of Chinook Salmon

Significant challenges remain in the ability to estimate habitat change under the combined effects of natural variability, climate change, and human activity. We examined anticipated effects on shallow water over low‐sloped beaches to these combined effects in the lower Willamette River, Oregon, an area highly altered by development. A proposal to stabilize some shoreline with large rocks (riprap) would alter shallow water areas, an important habitat for threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and would be subject to U.S. Endangered Species Act‐mandated oversight. In the mainstem, subyearling Chinook salmon appear to preferentially occupy these areas, which fluctuate with river stages. We estimated effects with a geospatial model and projections of future river flows. Recent (1999–2009) median river stages during peak subyearling occupancy (April–June) maximized beach shallow water area in the lower mainstem. Upstream shallow water area was maximized at lower river stages than have occurred recently. Higher river stages in April–June, resulting from increased flows predicted for the 2080s, decreased beach shallow water area 17–32%. On the basis of projected 2080s flows, more than 15% of beach shallow water area was displaced by the riprap. Beach shallow water area lost to riprap represented up to 1.6% of the total from the mouth to 12.9 km upstream. Reductions in shallow water area could restrict salmon feeding, resting, and refuge from predators and potentially reduce opportunities for the expression of the full range of life‐history strategies. Although climate change analyses provided useful information, detailed analyses are prohibitive at the project scale for the multitude of small projects reviewed annually. The benefits of our approach to resource managers include a wider geographic context for reviewing similar small projects in concert with climate change, an approach to analyze cumulative effects of similar actions, and estimation of the actions’ long‐term effects. Efectos Combinados del Cambio Climático y la Estabilización de Bordes de Ríos Hábitats de Aguas Poco Profundas del Salmón Chinook     

Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.     

Temperature and industrial output: Firm-level evidence from China

We pair a firm-level panel of annual industrial output with a fine-scale daily weather data set, to estimate the responses of industrial output to temperature changes in China. We have four primary findings. First, industrial output is nonlinear in temperature changes. With seasonal average temperatures as temperature variables, output responds positively to higher spring temperatures and negatively to elevated summer temperatures. With temperature bins as temperature variables, output increases linearly with temperature up to 21–24 °C, and then declines sharply at higher temperatures. Second, lagged temperature changes exert large and significant impacts on current year’s output. Third, higher summer temperatures have larger detrimental effects on output in low-temperature regions than in high-temperature regions, which suggests that adaptation to warming may have been actively undertaken in high-temperature regions in China. Lastly, industrial output in China is projected to decrease by 3–36% by 2080 under the slowest warming scenario (B1) and by 12–46% under the most rapid warming scenario (A2) under the global climate models UKMO-HadCM3 and PCM.     

Potential Effects of Ongoing and Proposed Hydropower Development on Terrestrial Biological Diversity in the Indian Himalaya

Indian Himalayan basins are earmarked for widespread dam building, but aggregate effects of these dams on terrestrial ecosystems are unknown. We mapped distribution of 292 dams (under construction and proposed) and projected effects of these dams on terrestrial ecosystems under different scenarios of land‐cover loss. We analyzed land‐cover data of the Himalayan valleys, where dams are located. We estimated dam density on fifth‐ through seventh‐order rivers and compared these estimates with current global figures. We used a species–area relation model (SAR) to predict short‐ and long‐term species extinctions driven by deforestation. We used scatter plots and correlation studies to analyze distribution patterns of species and dams and to reveal potential overlap between species‐rich areas and dam sites. We investigated effects of disturbance on community structure of undisturbed forests. Nearly 90% of Indian Himalayan valleys would be affected by dam building and 27% of these dams would affect dense forests. Our model projected that 54,117 ha of forests would be submerged and 114,361 ha would be damaged by dam‐related activities. A dam density of 0.3247/1000 km² would be nearly 62 times greater than current average global figures; the average of 1 dam for every 32 km of river channel would be 1.5 times higher than figures reported for U.S. rivers. Our results show that most dams would be located in species‐rich areas of the Himalaya. The SAR model projected that by 2025, deforestation due to dam building would likely result in extinction of 22 angiosperm and 7 vertebrate taxa. Disturbance due to dam building would likely reduce tree species richness by 35%, tree density by 42%, and tree basal cover by 30% in dense forests. These results, combined with relatively weak national environmental impact assessment and implementation, point toward significant loss of species if all proposed dams in the Indian Himalaya are constructed. Efectos Potenciales del Desarrollo Hidroeléctrico Actual y Propuesto sobre la Diversidad Biológica Terrestre en el Himalaya Hindú     

Age and spatial distribution of the world's oldest trees

Extremely old trees have important roles in providing insights about historical climatic events and supporting cultural values, yet there has been limited work on their global distribution and conservation. We extracted information on 197,855 tree cores from 4854 sites and combined it with other tree age (e.g., the OLDLIST) data from a further 156 sites to determine the age of the world's oldest trees and quantify the factors influencing their global distribution. We found that extremely old trees >1000 years were rare. Among 30 individual trees that exceeded 2000 years old, 27 occurred in high mountains. We modeled maximum tree age with climatic, soil topographic, and anthropogenic variables, and our regression models demonstrated that elevation, human population density, soil carbon content, and mean annual temperature were key determinants of the distribution of the world's oldest trees. Specifically, our model predicted that many of the oldest trees will occur in high-elevation, cold, and arid mountains with limited human disturbance. This pattern was markedly different from that of the tallest trees, which were more likely to occur in relatively more mesic and productive locations. Global warming and expansion of human activities may induce rapid population declines of extremely old trees. New strategies, including targeted establishment of conservation reserves in remote regions, especially those in western parts of China and the United States, are required to protect these trees.     

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species’ ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.     

Benthic invertebrates structure in wetlands of a tributary of the middle Parana River (Argentina) affected by hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbances

The present study was aimed at analyzing chromium concentrations in water column and bottom sediments in the main channel of Northern Salado River (tributary of Middle Parana River) and its floodplain. The main changes caused by human activities and hydrological disturbances on benthic invertebrate structure were also analyzed. Sediment concentrations of the reference area varied between 44.2 and 97.1 microg Crg(-1) (dw), and in the impacted zone, between 85.5 and 209 microg Cr g(-1) (dw) reaching the highest values in the wetland floodplain. Alfa, beta and gamma diversities in the reference section have been 33, 9 and 66 species, and in the disturbed section, they have been 37, 8.33 and 74 species, respectively The species dominant in the disturbed habitats were characterized by a small body size and short life cycles, as the species of olig chaetes Naidinae. The extreme flooding produced a rejuvenation of the area with the consequent physical re-structuration produced by flooding, showing: a marked decrease in chromium levels in sediments and in organic matter content, which allowed the colonization of insects (Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera).     

Breeding Distributions of North American Bird Species Moving North as a Result of Climate Change

Abstract:  Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.     

Reducing the Maladaptive Attractiveness of Solar Panels to Polarotactic Insects

Abstract: Human‐made objects (e.g., buildings with glass surfaces) can reflect horizontally polarized light so strongly that they appear to aquatic insects to be bodies of water. Insects that lay eggs in water are especially attracted to such structures because these insects use horizontal polarization of light off bodies of water to find egg‐laying sites. Thus, these sources of polarized light can become ecological traps associated with reproductive failure and mortality in organisms that are attracted to them and by extension with rapid population declines or collapse. Solar panels are a new source of polarized light pollution. Using imaging polarimetry, we measured the reflection–polarization characteristics of different solar panels and in multiple‐choice experiments in the field we tested their attractiveness to mayflies, caddis flies, dolichopodids, and tabanids. At the Brewster angle, solar panels polarized reflected light almost completely (degree of polarization d ≈100%) and substantially exceeded typical polarization values for water (d ≈30–70%). Mayflies (Ephemeroptera), stoneflies (Trichoptera), dolichopodid dipterans, and tabanid flies (Tabanidae) were the most attracted to solar panels and exhibited oviposition behavior above solar panels more often than above surfaces with lower degrees of polarization (including water), but in general they avoided solar cells with nonpolarizing white borders and white grates. The highly and horizontally polarizing surfaces that had nonpolarizing, white cell borders were 10‐ to 26‐fold less attractive to insects than the same panels without white partitions. Although solar panels can act as ecological traps, fragmenting their solar‐active area does lessen their attractiveness to polarotactic insects. The design of solar panels and collectors and their placement relative to aquatic habitats will likely affect populations of aquatic insects that use polarized light as a behavioral cue.     

Using Montane Mammals to Model Extinctions Due to Global Change

We use data on the species-area relationship and the nested subset structure of the boreal mammal faunas inhabiting isolated mountaintops in the Great Basin to develop a simple quantitative model that predicts the number and identity of species that would go extinct under an assumed scenario of changing climate and vegetation. Global warming of 3°C is predicted to cause the loss of 9–62% of the species inhabiting each mountain range and the extinction of three of fourteen species throughout the region. These results suggest (1) that it is possible to make highly plausible predictions about the susceptibility of species to extinction without detailed information about their population biology, and (2) that global and regional environmental changes seriously threaten the survival of species that are restricted in distribution to both natural "habitat islands" and biological reserves.     

卧龙自然保护区华西箭竹（Fargesia nitida）生态学特征随海拔梯度的变化

海拔梯度由于包含了温度、水分、光照等环境因子的剧烈变化而成为研究植物的环境适应性及其对全球气候变化响应的理想区域。在卧龙自然保护区沿海拔梯度研究了华西箭竹（Fargesia nitida（Mitford）T.P.Yi）分株的丛结构,比叶面积（SLA）、基径、株高、枝下高、单株地上部生物量及各器官生物量的分配。结果表明：华西箭竹丛结构表现为平均单丛面积和丛密度随着海拔升高呈先增大后降低的趋势,而单丛分株数先减少后增大;华西箭竹分株生长特征除SLA和枝下高线性降低,其他各调查变量随着海拔升高,总体呈先增大后减小的单峰变化趋势,高峰值在2 800 m附近。反映了环境因子随海拔升高的非线性变化。分析认为,高海拔地区的华西箭竹对温度较为敏感,气候变暖将有利于它的生长,因此其分布上限可能会提高。本研究结果拓展和丰富了海拔梯度上植物对异质性环境的适应和响应的规律研究,也可对地震后保护区植被的恢复与重建提供科学参考。     

Applications of artificial neural networks for patterning and predicting aquatic insect species richness in running waters

Two artificial neural networks (ANNs), unsupervised and supervised learning algorithms, were applied to suggest practical approaches for the analysis of ecological data. Four major aquatic insect orders (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera, and Coleoptera, i.e. EPTC), and four environmental variables (elevation, stream order, distance from the source, and water temperature) were used to implement the models. The data were collected and measured at 155 sampling sites on streams of the Adour–Garonne drainage basin (South-western France). The modelling procedure was carried out following two steps. First, a self-organizing map (SOM), an unsupervised ANN, was applied to classify sampling sites using EPTC richness. Second, a backpropagation algorithm (BP), a supervised ANN, was applied to predict EPTC richness using a set of four environmental variables. The trained SOM classified sampling sites according to a gradient of EPTC richness, and the groups obtained corresponded to geographic regions of the drainage basin and characteristics of their environmental variables. The SOM showed its convenience to analyze relationships among sampling sites, biological attributes, and environmental variables. After accounting for the relationships in data sets, the BP used to predict the EPTC richness with a set of four environmental variables showed a high accuracy (r=0.91 and r=0.61 for training and test data sets respectively). The prediction of EPTC richness is thus a valuable tool to assess disturbances in given areas: by knowing what the EPTC richness should be, we can determine the degree to which disturbances have altered it. The results suggested that methodologies successively using two different neural networks are helpful to understand ecological data through ordination first, and then to predict target variables.     

高山植物对全球气候变暖的响应研究进展

高山地区被认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的区域之一,气候变暖导致高山生境内生物与非生物环境因子发生不同程度的改变,从而引起高山植物从不同层面作出不同的变化或响应.综述了高山及亚高山高海拔生境内,植物从宏观生态系统层面到微观个体生理层面对全球气候变化进行响应的研究进展.植物由个体自身的生理及形态上产生不同响应,逐步经过"瀑布式上升效应(Cascade effects)",最后引起整个高山生态系统的转变.受局地差异性及物种差异性影响,生物多样性在不同高山地区呈现出或是增加或是减少的趋势;林线及植被向高纬度、高海拔地区扩张;植物间相互关系由协作转向中性乃至竞争;植物物候、繁殖、生物量生产、光合作用、年轮生长、营养结构等方面均呈现出不同的响应模式.这些从微观到宏观的不同响应模式,最终将引起高山生态系统在结构、功能上的改变,进而在很大范围上威胁到高山植物的生存与发展.最后提出该领域未来的研究重点.参147     

On how much biodiversity is covered in Europe by national protected areas and by the Natura 2000 network: insights from terrestrial vertebrates

The European Union has made extensive biodiversity conservation efforts with the Habitats and Birds Directives and with the establishment of the Natura 2000 network of protected areas, one of the largest networks of conservation areas worldwide. We performed a gap analysis of the entire Natura 2000 system plus national protected areas and all terrestrial vertebrates (freshwater fish excluded). We also evaluated the level of connectivity of both systems, providing therefore a first estimate of the functionality of the Natura 2000 system as an effective network of protected areas. Together national protected areas and the Natura 2000 network covered more than one‐third of the European Union. National protected areas did not offer protection to 13 total gap species (i.e., species not covered by any protected area) or to almost 300 partial gap species (i.e., species whose representation target is not met). Together the Natura 2000 network and national protected areas left 1 total gap species and 121 partial gap species unprotected. The terrestrial vertebrates listed in the Habitats and Birds Directives were relatively well covered (especially birds), and overall connectivity was improved considerably by Natura 2000 sites that act as stepping stones between national protected areas. Overall, we found that the Natura 2000 network represents at continental level an important network of protected areas that acts as a good complement to existing national protected areas. However, a number of problems remain that are mainly linked to the criteria used to list the species in the Habitats and Birds Directives. The European Commission initiated in 2014 a process aimed at assessing the importance of the Birds and Habitats Directives for biodiversity conservation. Our results contribute to this assessment and suggest the system is largely effective for terrestrial vertebrates but would benefit from further updating of the species lists and field management.     

利用农业土壤固定有机碳——缓解全球变暖与提高土壤生产力

大气CO