沈阳地区霾的环境特征研究

利用沈阳市1961—2009年的气象资料,分析了霾天气出现的年季特征及其天气形势特征。利用边界层气象资料与污染物质量浓度资料对特定的霾过程从边界层到污染物质量浓度条件进行了分析。结果表明：沈阳地区霾的出现呈现逐年上升的趋势,近5 a平均每年为120 d左右,目前霾天数已经占到了全年的30%~40%。冬秋季节出现霾天气较多,秋冬两季霾日数占全年霾日总数的75%。凌晨到上午是霾出现的高发期,02—08时霾出现频率占总霾数的44.5%。霾的出现主要发生在冬秋季节冷空气势力不强,大气扩散能力较弱,边界层出现逆温时刻。接地逆温层厚度常常稳定在200~300 m高度左右,PM10质量浓度与能见度（霾）呈负相关,相关系数-0.402 7。风速与能见度（霾）呈正相关,相关系数为0.886 4。     

成都市空气质量指数与雾霾的关系研究

统计分析成都市空气质量指数(AQI)日数据与6项指标小时浓度数据,结合大气能见度与相对湿度日数据,采用非线性拟合等方法对成都市AQI与雾霾天气的关系进行研究,并分别分析能见度与相对湿度、AQI之间的线性和非线性关系。结果表明,成都市现阶段AQI和颗粒物污染密切相关,2013年和2014年AQI变化趋势大致相同,4—9月份较低,以良和轻度污染为主,秋冬季大气污染是一年中的高峰期;2014年的逐月AQI普遍较2013年低,一定程度上反映了空气质量的改善。2013年和2014年平均大气能见度变化趋势也大致相同,均表现为春夏较好,而秋冬较差,秋冬季是雾霾多发的季节;随着相对湿度的逐渐增加,大气能见度与AQI的非线性相关系数逐渐升高,具有较好的相关性;在不同的空气质量等级下,相对湿度与能见度的非线性相关系数R_N普遍高于线性相关系数R_L。本研究所得出的AQI与雾霾的非线性模型在判别霾日程度上准确度一般,而在判别雾日方面准确度极高,全年平均准确率达到98%以上,尤其在春季表现得更为明显,拟合值和观测结果吻合度达到100%。同时,该模型在判别霾日或非霾日方面较准确,尤其在雾霾多发的秋冬季节,非霾日的准确度最高分别可达89.44%和92.78%,霾日的准确度最高分别可达88.89%和85%。在季节判断上,分季度模型比全年模型更加准确。     

珠三角地区典型浓雾和灰霾天气过程气象条件对比研究

为深入探究雾、霾天气发生发展过程中气象要素特征的差异,提升环境天气预报预警业务水平,选取2017年3月10-12日和2016年3月29日-4月3日分别出现在珠三角地区的典型浓雾、灰霾天气过程,基于国家自动气象站资料、广州番禺大气成分站数据以及NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,通过相关分析和天气学分析,从环流形势、地面气象要素特征和边界层特征等方面对两次过程进行对比研究。结果表明,(1)浓雾、灰霾个例中均具有较为稳定的环流背景场,高层(500hPa)为纬向平直西风环流,地面受均压场控制,等压线稀疏,稳定的高低层环流配置极有利于雾、霾天气过程的出现和维持,伴随环流形势调整,雾、霾消散。(2)雾、霾过程能见度均与相对湿度呈负相关,与风速、气温呈正相关。灰霾过程能见度与各气象要素的相关性整体高于浓雾过程,且灰霾过程中湿度和能见度的相关系数最大,其次是风速和气温;相对湿度和风速大小是影响浓雾天气的重要气象条件,相对湿度的减小是浓雾天气消散的主要原因,风速增大和降水是灰霾天气消散的主要气象条件。(3)边界层特征分析表明,浓雾天气低层有一个较浅薄的小风速层(1 000-950 h Pa),而灰霾天气存在一个深厚的小风层,小风层厚度从近地面上升至850 hPa左右,两次过程在低层均为一致下沉运动。低层风速增大、出现上升气流,是雾、霾天气开始消散的重要信号。从热力条件来看,两次过程均存在逆温层,浓雾过程逆温层出现在50 hPa附近,灰霾过程逆温层出现在近地面附近,浓雾过程对湿度条件的要求较灰霾天气更高。     

北京地区灰霾污染特征

灰霾天气能见度较低,除影响人们日常生产活动和交通运输外,空气中携带的有毒有害细粒子严重危害人们的生命健康。近几年,北京市加大治霾力度,虽取得一定成绩,但灰霾天气仍然频发。为进一步更好地治理北京灰霾,为制定政策提供依据,须了解北京地区灰霾污染特征,因此,对北京市2013年6月到2014年5月的气象观测数据和PM2.5质量浓度进行了统计分析。文章统计了不同强度灰霾的分布,分析了PM2.5质量浓度与能见度的相关关系,在此基础上,研究了PM2.5质量浓度影响能见度变化程度的分界点。研究结果表明:研究期间,北京地区出现灰霾时总计4 572 h,发生频率为56.2%,灰霾日总计233 d,频率为64.4%,呈冬季春季夏季秋季;湿霾最易发生在夏季,干霾最易发生在冬季,分别占当季灰霾时的17.6%和59.0%;全年不同强度霾发生小时数呈现轻微霾重度霾轻度霾中度霾,其中,轻微霾时数1 625 h,重度霾1 163 h,轻度霾1 101 h,中度霾683 h;研究期间PM2.5质量浓度呈夏季低冬季高的显著变化趋势,PM2.5日均质量浓度达一级空气质量标准59 d,达二级标准159 d,达标率分别为17.7%和47.74%;PM2.5小时质量浓度与能见度呈负相关性较高的幂函数关系(置信度取99%,P0.01),无高湿条件影响下,空气中细颗粒物对能见度的影响更为直接;北京地区在改善能见度的过程中,通过降低1μg·m-3的PM2.5,使能见度改善大于或远大于1 km的概率仅为18.9%,而在50.4%的时段内仅能使能见度的改善小于或远小于0.1 km。     

降雨过程后北京城区PM2.5日时空变化研究

随着人类环境意识的增强,人们对城市雾霾天气的忧虑与日俱增,PM2.5的时空变化和对人体健康的影响已成为关注的焦点。以往的研究多集中在不同季节或年际的变化,本文通过统计环保局发布的位于北京城区13个逐时浓度监测点降雨前后PM2.5质量浓度,并在城区布设14个采样点昼夜连续监测一次降雨后72 h内PM2.5质量浓度变化情况,研究北京市城区降雨后PM2.5日变化规律及空间分布特征,由此分析降雨对PM2.5日变化规律的影响。同时对比PM2.5与同步气象数据（温度、相对湿度）和交通数据（车辆量、车速）最值频率分布情况,进而对PM2.5日变化特征进行成因分析。随后利用GIS空间分析方法,分析了PM2.5的日空间分布特征。结果表明,降雨对颗粒物的去除作用明显,一次降雨可使PM2.5质量浓度平均下降56.3%。雨后72 h内PM2.5质量浓度均小于60μg·m-3,降雨后1 h内PM2.5质量浓度处于稳定状态,在随后的12 h内PM2.5浓度值都处于下降状态。降雨过程只降低PM2.5的质量浓度值,并不影响其日变化规律。PM2.5的日变化规律以19时为界,表现出明显的昼夜差异。白天的变化规律呈现凹型,夜间的变化规律呈现拱型。PM2.5质量浓度峰值多出现在23时或0时,谷值多出现在下午15时,该特征受气象因素影响较大,受交通源的影响作用不明显。早高峰期间,PM2.5质量浓度变化主要受交通源的影响;晚高峰期间,交通源和气象因素共同影响PM2.5质量浓度。研究区PM2.5日空间分布特征同样存在明显的昼夜差异。白天PM2.5空间分布特征为南部高北部低;PM2.5在夜间的空间分布特征则多表现为四周高、中心低,三环外围区域多为高值区。     

基于卫星观测的南京臭氧时空分布及变化特征

随着城市化及工业化进程的加快,南京市的臭氧污染问题也愈发突出。利用OMI(ozone monitoring instrument)的卫星观测数据与Ziemke数据集对南京市2008—2017年臭氧时空分布特征进行遥感反演和统计分析,为制定南京臭氧控制策略提供科学依据及参考。结果如下,10年间南京上空臭氧总量总体缓慢上升,最低值出现在2008年(284.46 DU);最高值在2010年(297.27 DU)。春季臭氧总量最高,秋季最低。10年间,冬、春季臭氧总量波动上升,而夏、秋季则相反。臭氧总量的月变化呈周期性分布,4月和10月分别为峰值和谷值。臭氧总量的空间分布呈现明显的北高南低的纬度分布特征。而对流层臭氧柱浓度在2008—2017年波动上升,季节均值最大值出现在夏季(48.8 DU),冬季最小(34.1 DU)。10年间,春季对流层柱臭氧浓度呈下降趋势,其他季节均与之相反。对流层臭氧柱浓度的月变化呈现单峰分布,6月的对流层臭氧柱浓度最高(54.9 DU),最低值出现在1月,较臭氧总量的月变化推迟2—3个月。研究表明,南京上空的臭氧时空变化特征明显,为大气环流、气候变化及人类活动等多方面因素共同影响的结果。     

降雨过程后北京城区PM_(2.5)日时空变化研究

随着人类环境意识的增强,人们对城市雾霾天气的忧虑与日俱增,PM2.5的时空变化和对人体健康的影响已成为关注的焦点。以往的研究多集中在不同季节或年际的变化,本文通过统计环保局发布的位于北京城区13个逐时浓度监测点降雨前后PM2.5质量浓度,并在城区布设14个采样点昼夜连续监测一次降雨后72 h内PM2.5质量浓度变化情况,研究北京市城区降雨后PM2.5日变化规律及空间分布特征,由此分析降雨对PM2.5日变化规律的影响。同时对比PM2.5与同步气象数据(温度、相对湿度)和交通数据(车辆量、车速)最值频率分布情况,进而对PM2.5日变化特征进行成因分析。随后利用GIS空间分析方法,分析了PM2.5的日空间分布特征。结果表明,降雨对颗粒物的去除作用明显,一次降雨可使PM2.5质量浓度平均下降56.3%。雨后72 h内PM2.5质量浓度均小于60μg·m-3,降雨后1 h内PM2.5质量浓度处于稳定状态,在随后的12 h内PM2.5浓度值都处于下降状态。降雨过程只降低PM2.5的质量浓度值,并不影响其日变化规律。PM2.5的日变化规律以19时为界,表现出明显的昼夜差异。白天的变化规律呈现凹型,夜间的变化规律呈现拱型。PM2.5质量浓度峰值多出现在23时或0时,谷值多出现在下午15时,该特征受气象因素影响较大,受交通源的影响作用不明显。早高峰期间,PM2.5质量浓度变化主要受交通源的影响;晚高峰期间,交通源和气象因素共同影响PM2.5质量浓度。研究区PM2.5日空间分布特征同样存在明显的昼夜差异。白天PM2.5空间分布特征为南部高北部低;PM2.5在夜间的空间分布特征则多表现为四周高、中心低,三环外围区域多为高值区。     

北京地区灰霾污染特征

灰霾天气能见度较低，除影响人们日常生产活动和交通运输外，空气中携带的有毒有害细粒子严重危害人们的生命健康。近几年，北京市加大治霾力度，虽取得一定成绩，但灰霾天气仍然频发。为进一步更好地治理北京灰霾，为制定政策提供依据，须了解北京地区灰霾污染特征，因此，对北京市2013年6月到2014年5月的气象观测数据和PM2.5质量浓度进行了统计分析。文章统计了不同强度灰霾的分布，分析了PM2.5质量浓度与能见度的相关关系，在此基础上，研究了PM2.5质量浓度影响能见度变化程度的分界点。研究结果表明：研究期间，北京地区出现灰霾时总计4572 h，发生频率为56.2%，灰霾日总计233 d，频率为64.4%，呈冬季〉春季〉夏季〉秋季；湿霾最易发生在夏季，干霾最易发生在冬季，分别占当季灰霾时的17.6%和59.0%；全年不同强度霾发生小时数呈现轻微霾〉重度霾〉轻度霾〉中度霾，其中，轻微霾时数1625 h，重度霾1163 h，轻度霾1101 h，中度霾683 h；研究期间PM2.5质量浓度呈夏季低冬季高的显著变化趋势，PM2.5日均质量浓度达一级空气质量标准59 d，达二级标准159 d，达标率分别为17.7%和47.74%；PM2.5小时质量浓度与能见度呈负相关性较高的幂函数关系（置信度取99%，P〈0.01），无高湿条件影响下，空气中细颗粒物对能见度的影响更为直接；北京地区在改善能见度的过程中，通过降低1μg·m-3的PM2.5，使能见度改善大于或远大于1 km的概率仅为18.9%，而在50.4%的时段内仅能使能见度的改善小于或远小于0.1 km。     

冬季广州大气能见度影响因子分析

于2005年12月至2006年2月收集了华南所大气观测站大气能见度等7个气象因子及PM2.5浓度观测数据,分析了冬季广州大气能见度变化趋势及灰霾天气主要影响因子,并对能见度与主要影响因子进行相关性分析。结果发现:人为因素和气象条件对大气能见度的影响比较明显,当大气层结受到北方冷空气扰动后,能见度得到明显改善;1月份灰霾天气出现频率高达60.9%,灰霾天气下大气能见度与PM2.5浓度密切相关;大气能见度与PM2.5浓度、温度、相对湿度呈负相关性,与大气压呈正相关性;灰霾天气下大气能见度还与细颗粒物的粒径分布密切相关。     

2001—2012年哈尔滨市空气质量长期变化特征

根据2001—2012年环保部发布的哈尔滨市城市空气质量日报数据及同期气象资料分析了哈尔滨市空气污染指数(API)的变化特征.结果表明,哈尔滨市空气污染呈现明显的北方季节变化特征,API冬、春季高,夏、秋季低,供暖期高于非供暖期.哈尔滨市空气污染以可吸入颗粒物为首要污染物,空气质量状况以良居多,占总样本数的75.4%.从年际变化来看,空气质量有了一定的改善,12年间空气污染指数呈显著下降的趋势.哈尔滨市空气污染指数与风速呈显著正相关,与降水量、气温、能见度呈显著负相关.后向轨迹分析结果表明,哈尔滨市出现中度以上污染时,其气团来源体现了3种不同的特征.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.